Back to 17 wins to be “completely safe” heading to BTT

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Some guy said:
And the humans have put teams with lower conference records above teams with better conference records FROM THE SAME CONFERENCE
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haha alright I'm not saying it's never happened. I'm just saying if it's close, I'd rather be the team higher in the standings
 



Folks, please note, I'm officially changing the win number (prior to Big Ten Tournament) to 16. All signs are that the game @ Nebraska will not be made up, as preference for making up postponed games first goes to teams the Cornhuskers have yet to play. If we hear an announcement that the game will be made up, I'll switch things back to their original form in the initial post.

So all I'm going to do is, eliminate the game @ Nebraska off the "Must Win" bucket and change that bucket to "go 7-1", which the Gophers already have accomplished by starting 7-0. In case you're wondering, I think it's important to allow a loss in the "Must Win" bucket because in most seasons a team simply isn't going to beat everyone they're supposed to. But if they do, it potentially allows a team some margin for error in the other buckets. Got all that? ;)
 
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Thanks for adjusting to 16 wins, SS.

It's kinda funny though, as someone in this thread earlier this week was saying (paraphrasing) that it would be embarrassing to get into the tournament with 15 wins. In reality, 15 wins this year with a Big Ten schedule, very likely puts on firmly on the right side of the bubble
 

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SelectionSunday said:
All signs are that the game @ Nebraska will not be made up
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I wouldn't assume that.

Nebraska doesn't have a game currently scheduled between Feb 21-27.

Minnesota doesn't have a game currently scheduled between Feb 21-26.

It is clear the Big Ten is going to make Nebraska play as many as they can, including a back-to-back next week at Maryland.
 
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Well they won one i thought they’d lose last night.
Although i did say Gabe likes afternoon games!
 

tjgopher said:
I wouldn't assume that.

Nebraska doesn't have a game currently scheduled between Feb 21-27.

Minnesota doesn't have a game currently scheduled between Feb 21-26.

It is clear the Big Ten is going to make Nebraska play as many as they can, including a back-to-back next week at Maryland.
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According to ESPN, Nebraska has a make up game at Illinois on 24 February.

Nebraska has no games scheduled between 27 Feb and 7 March. Perhaps the Gophers schedule can be adjusted to fit a game during that period. Minnesota currently has games on 3 March and 6 March.
 

East Coast Gopher said:
According to ESPN, Nebraska has a make up game at Illinois on 24 February.

Nebraska has no games scheduled between 27 Feb and 7 March. Perhaps the Gophers schedule can be adjusted to fit a game during that period. Minnesota currently has games on 3 March and 6 March.
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I think I read that they were going to move that Illinois game into early March but I could be wrong.
 

I think the y will make up the nebby game in Indianapolis Tuesday of the B1G tournament week! Lol
 





The path to clinching bid before B1G Tourney time seems quite simple given teams on the bubble struggling right now, correct SS?

2 home wins + 1 road win, OR go 3-0 at home the rest of the way. Do-able, but certainly not a shoe-in. Will have to earn that.
 

I would assume the most likely scenario is they go 3-3 the rest of the way.

L @ MD
L @ IND
L vs. ILL
W vs. NW
W @ PSU
W vs. Rutgers

Based on your assessment, that puts them in. So sitting at about a 10 seed? Which would pit them against a 7 seed. Which looks like a B1G comparison would be a Rutgers/Purdue level team, which would give them at least a decent chance at winning a game.
 

East Coast Gopher said:
According to ESPN, Nebraska has a make up game at Illinois on 24 February.

Nebraska has no games scheduled between 27 Feb and 7 March. Perhaps the Gophers schedule can be adjusted to fit a game during that period. Minnesota currently has games on 3 March and 6 March.
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Not sure what Nebraska schedule you're looking at. They play Purdue on Feb 20 and they play Rutgers on Feb. 28. No currently scheduled games in between.

Nebraska has a rescheduled game vs. Illinois the first week of March. Not on February 24th.

As I mentioned, Nebraska has no games between Feb 21-27.

If I had to guess, I would say Nebraska will play Iowa and Minnesota in makeup games between Feb 21-27 and then play makeup games against Purdue and Illinois between March 1-5.

The Cornhuskers are going to play about 14 games in about 29 days.
 
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forever a gopher said:
I would assume the most likely scenario is they go 3-3 the rest of the way.

L @ MD
L @ IND
L vs. ILL
W vs. NW
W @ PSU
W vs. Rutgers

Based on your assessment, that puts them in. So sitting at about a 10 seed? Which would pit them against a 7 seed. Which looks like a B1G comparison would be a Rutgers/Purdue level team, which would give them at least a decent chance at winning a game.
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If it goes that way, the next week won't be much fun and we'll out of all brackets for awhile.
 

howeda7 said:
If it goes that way, the next week won't be much fun and we'll out of all brackets for awhile.
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IND seems like it should be a toss-up, but I don't think you can trust this team in any capacity on the road. Which makes neutral site games intriguing as to how they'll do. Will it be like their road games? Or for some reason different?
 

forever a gopher said:
IND seems like it should be a toss-up, but I don't think you can trust this team in any capacity on the road. Which makes neutral site games intriguing as to how they'll do. Will it be like their road games? Or for some reason different?
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This team can't be trusted in any capacity, road or home. I think the road game at PSU is a land mine. Would be great to see them pick up one of Maryland and Indiana, both of which they have played reasonably well in the recent past. Maryland is a bad match-up, but we also owe them one. Indiana has talent but they are beatable on any night and is a better match up.
 

tjgopher said:
Not sure what Nebraska schedule you're looking at. They play Purdue on Feb 20 and they play Rutgers on Feb. 28. No currently scheduled games in between.

Nebraska has a rescheduled game vs. Illinois the first week of March. Not on February 24th.

As I mentioned, Nebraska has no games between Feb 21-27.

If I had to guess, I would say Nebraska will play Iowa and Minnesota in makeup games between Feb 21-27 and then play makeup games against Purdue and Illinois between March 1-5.

The Cornhuskers are going to play about 14 games in about 29 days.
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ESPN hasn't updated Nebraska's schedule following the announced rescheduling of the 24 February game.
 

East Coast Gopher said:
ESPN hasn't updated Nebraska's schedule following the announced rescheduling of the 24 February game.
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Nebraska's website shows they have no game between 2/20 and 2/27 and neither do we. It would make sense for them to make up 1/2 home games that week.
 

Holy Man said:
This team can't be trusted in any capacity, road or home. I think the road game at PSU is a land mine. Would be great to see them pick up one of Maryland and Indiana, both of which they have played reasonably well in the recent past. Maryland is a bad match-up, but we also owe them one. Indiana has talent but they are beatable on any night and is a better match up.
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Penn state is actually ranked higher in Ken Pom than us shockingly. I don’t buy it but they may be better than their record indicates.
 
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forever a gopher said:
IND seems like it should be a toss-up, but I don't think you can trust this team in any capacity on the road. Which makes neutral site games intriguing as to how they'll do. Will it be like their road games? Or for some reason different?
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Not a toss up by any means. Indiana will be favored in this game by 5-6 and I would expect the Gophers to lose by roughly 15. Just put an L on every road game from here on out. They won't win on the road, that is pretty much certain.

People thinking we will beat Illinois at home here also haven't watched enough of this team. They play excellent defense and we struggle to get good shots against mediocre D. My guess is that Illinois game is a loser by roughly 10.
 

tjgopher said:
In reality it 100% was. We won one and lost one against them. 50/50. Exactly a coin flip.
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You think Gophers would win 50 out of 100 times, if we played them? That's what 50/50 actually means.

No chance. I could see 10 out of 100.
 

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