B1G West Title Watch - Week 8

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By the time Minnesota hosts Wisconsin, we should have a pretty good picture of who can win the West. - Captain Obvious

Even if we shut out both Rutgers and Maryland and score a lot, we will know nothing until after the Penn State game.
 

Some guy said:
If Purdue beats Iowa this weekend, I could see them rattling off four straight and being in a big game against Wisconsin.
I don’t think they will beat Iowa, but if they did, they aren’t out of it quite yet.

Nebraska doesn’t have any really tough road games left.
They could win out if healthy. I don’t think they will thoughZ

I wouldn’t rule anyone out until they pick up a 3rd loss.
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Interesting point about Purdue.

Is Moore healthy for this week?
 


WinLoseOrTy said:
FiveThirtyEight has Iowa at 3% chance to win out.

ESPN FPI has them at 1.8% chance.
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I think that counts the conference championship because when I select Minnesota to win out, OSU's chance of winning the conference goes to 0. Iowa's chances of winning out excluding the championship would be a little better than that.

I also wonder if the reason their chance of winning out is so much better than Minnesota's is because there is probability space where they win out and still don't go to the championship. 1 less game against a tough opponent.
 


Plato said:
Not to wave a red flag in front of bulls but Sagarin has MN and NDSU with the same rating.
This is all based on past performances and does not with certainty predict the future but it gives a picture of the present.
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Don't tell NDSU fans that, they'll be pissed.

They think they're at Bama's level
 

Com_Cool said:
I think that counts the conference championship because when I select Minnesota to win out, OSU's chance of winning the conference goes to 0. Iowa's chances of winning out excluding the championship would be a little better than that.

I also wonder if the reason their chance of winning out is so much better than Minnesota's is because there is probability space where they win out and still don't go to the championship. 1 less game against a tough opponent.
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The probability of winning N games is going to be a product of N terms that are between 0 and 1 (the probability for winning each game). So unless each game prob. is close to 1, the overall prob. is gonna come crashing down very quickly as N increases.
 

I have a funny feeling about Purdue-Iowa.

Purdue — without Moore, and without Sindelar — handled Maryland on the road, and looked fairly impressive doing it.

Iowa might be on the verge of re-asserting themselves. Going in to 2019, I thought of them as the favorite in the B1G West.

But as of right now Iowa's offense looks almost inept.
 

Would be great if Iowa loses, but I'm going with home teams in the two most interesting games this week: Michigan @ Penn St and Purdue @ Iowa.
 



MnplsGopher said:
Would be great if Iowa loses, but I'm going with home teams in the two most interesting games this week: Michigan @ Penn St and Purdue @ Iowa.
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It is a bad slate of games this week when Purdue @ Iowa is the second best game on paper...
 

MnplsGopher said:
Would be great if Iowa loses, but I'm going with home teams in the two most interesting games this week: Michigan @ Penn St and Purdue @ Iowa.
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This is the B1G so I would not be surprised if Mich takes it in Happy Valley. Should be a fun game to watch.
 

Com_Cool said:
I think that counts the conference championship because when I select Minnesota to win out, OSU's chance of winning the conference goes to 0. Iowa's chances of winning out excluding the championship would be a little better than that.

I also wonder if the reason their chance of winning out is so much better than Minnesota's is because there is probability space where they win out and still don't go to the championship. 1 less game against a tough opponent.
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In some scenarios, yes. Others no. If Gophers win out, then that means a B1G title game 100% of the time. If Iowa wins out, there our still scenarios (1 loss Minnesota or 1 loss Wisconsin) where they still do not get a spot in B1G title game.
 

WinLoseOrTy said:
In some scenarios, yes. Others no. If Gophers win out, then that means a B1G title game 100% of the time. If Iowa wins out, there our still scenarios (1 loss Minnesota or 1 loss Wisconsin) where they still do not get a spot in B1G title game.
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Yea exactly. That was my thought for the second point, so since these probabilities are likely based on simulation, there are some number of simulations where Iowa wins out and doesn't have to play another game. Not having to play that game makes the probability of winning out higher even if it only happens occasionally. Is this the reason their probability of winning out is higher though? Maybe, but the more I think about it, it's probably just Minnesota's brutal November schedule.
 



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