B1G Monday Morning: Minnesota is closer to Michigan than pollsters think

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per Hickey:

Michigan and Minnesota were joined at the hip in this year’s non-conference schedule.

If NCAA Football ’22 existed as a video game, the first 3 games for both teams would have been played on the Junior Varsity setting. Minnesota rolled New Mexico State, Western Illinois and Colorado by a combined margin of 149-17. Michigan drubbed Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn by a collective 166-17.

Week 4 was the soonest we’d be able to gauge anything about either team.

For AP pollsters, Minnesota’s 34-7 win at Michigan State was finally enough to buy in on the Golden Gophers. Minnesota makes its 2022 debut at No. 21.

Michigan, which was finally tested against Maryland, hung on for a 34-27 win and maintained the No. 4 spot nationally.

Based on both performances, it seems dubious to me that there’s a 17-team gap between the Wolverines and Gophers. There might not be any gap, actually. Objectively speaking, both teams should probably be ranked somewhere around 10th.

But when you’re battling the bias of history — good for the Wolverines, bad for the Gophers — these corrections tend not to show up in the polls until mid-October at the soonest.

Michigan doesn’t deserve No. 4 — yet​

The Wolverines are still coasting on last year’s accomplishments while also giving voters little reason to think they aren’t capable of another CFP run this season.

They certainly are capable. But Michigan needs to beat a ranked opponent or win a road game before being considered a valid Top-5 team. That’s how historically bad Michigan’s non-conference slate is this season. It has a chance to hurt the Wolverines in the eyes of the College Football Playoff committee when that time comes.

Here’s what each opponent has been up to:

Colorado State

  • Lost to Michigan, 51-7
  • Lost to Middle Tennessee State, 34-19
  • Lost to Washington State, 38-7
  • Lost to FCS Sacramento State, 41-10
Sacramento State’s win is the fourth-most lopsided victory for an FCS team over an FBS opponent in NCAA history.

Hawaii

  • Lost to Vanderbilt, 63-10
  • Lost to Western Kentucky, 49-17
  • Lost to Michigan, 56-10
  • Beat FCS Duquesne, 24-14
  • Lost to New Mexico State, 45-26
Duquesne is 1-3 with its lone win coming against Division II Thomas More.

Connecticut

  • Lost to Utah State, 31-20
  • Beat FCS Central Connecticut State, 28-3
  • Lost to Syracuse, 48-14
  • Lost to Michigan, 59-0
  • Lost to NC State, 41-10
Central Connecticut State is 0-4, including a 70-6 loss to Southeastern Louisiana.

Michigan’s 3 non-conference opponents are a combined 0-11 against FBS opponents. Their lone wins are over struggling FCS teams. And the other team lost to an FCS school by 31 points.

No. 5 Clemson has proven itself with a road win at Wake Forest. No. 6 USC did the same with a road win at Oregon State. Even No. 11 Penn State has proven far more about itself than Michigan with road wins at Auburn and Purdue.

The Maryland win was not a compelling enough piece of evidence to deem Michigan a legit Playoff contender. The score was even after Michigan was gifted a touchdown in the first 7 seconds thanks to the opening kickoff bouncing off the return man’s helmet.

It could be that Maryland is itself a legit Top 25 team. And in turn, Michigan may prove its top-5 bona fides against Iowa and Penn State over the next 3 weeks. But this is about right now.

And Minnesota looked no less than Michigan’s equal in its Saturday slaughter of Michigan State. Maybe even a little better.

Minnesota makes a statement​

Before Michigan fans can say “What about Minnesota’s schedule?” — yeah, it’s bad too. But not quite as bad as Michigan’s.

New Mexico State

  • Lost to Nevada, 23-13
  • Lost to Minnesota, 38-0
  • Lost to UTEP, 20-13
  • Lost to Wisconsin, 66-7
  • Beat Hawaii, 45-26
This is actually a pretty helpful comparison, establishing that Minnesota’s win over New Mexico State is stronger than Michigan’s win over Hawaii. Granted, that’s like a strongman competition where someone curled a 4-pound weight over a 3-pound weight.

Western Illinois

  • Lost to Minnesota, 62-10
  • Lost to FCS Southern Utah, 17-10
  • Lost to FCS Tennessee-Martin, 42-25
  • Lost to FCS Northern Iowa, 52-17
The counterargument for Michigan fans: the Wolverines didn’t schedule any FCS teams, much less a bad FCS team. But one wonders if the Leathernecks might give Colorado State a game.

Colorado

  • Lost to TCU, 38-13
  • Lost to Air Force, 41-10
  • Lost to Minnesota, 49-7
  • Lost to UCLA, 45-17
Of all the years for Colorado and Colorado State not to play one another … the Buffaloes and Rams may have both punched their tickets to 0-12 by skipping their rivalry game. But while the Buffs are bad, they’re also victims of their own schedule.

For reasons beyond comprehension, Colorado AD Rick George scheduled 2 non-conference road games (Air Force and Minnesota) while playing a Power 5 opponent in the other non-conference game. So it’s possible the Buffs have 3-9 talent trapped in an 0-12 body.

Thankfully, we can put all of that behind us at this point. This is no longer about Charmin-soft non-conference schedules, but what each team does in Big Ten play.

And in that regard, Minnesota unquestionably has a better resume right now. Michigan State clearly isn’t what it was a year ago, but to throttle the Spartans in East Lansing is a feat. Minnesota hasn’t beaten Michigan State by 27 points since 1958.

And that last sentence is illustrative as to why Minnesota finds itself down at No. 21. Fleck led the Gophers to a No. 10 national finish in 2019, but prior to that Minnesota hadn’t finished in the Top 10 since 1962. Minnesota just isn’t a name that sticks in the forefront of voters’ minds like Michigan does.

Unfortunately, there’s no Battle for the Little Brown Jug this year to demonstrate just how close these teams likely are on the field. Perhaps we’ll get one in Indianapolis. If we don’t, it’s on the Gophers to keep opening eyes to their legitimacy.


Go Gophers!!
 


If we meet Michigan in the B1G playoff, is it an official Jug game?
I hope it is. Even if they don't have it on the field, I would appreciate it if it changed hands. Have any of the other Big Ten championship games been two teams that traditionally play for a trophy?
 


It’s pretty hilarious that Hawaii lost by 20 to New Mexico State. How did Michigan allow 10 points?!
 


per Hickey:

Michigan and Minnesota were joined at the hip in this year’s non-conference schedule.

If NCAA Football ’22 existed as a video game, the first 3 games for both teams would have been played on the Junior Varsity setting. Minnesota rolled New Mexico State, Western Illinois and Colorado by a combined margin of 149-17. Michigan drubbed Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn by a collective 166-17.

Week 4 was the soonest we’d be able to gauge anything about either team.

For AP pollsters, Minnesota’s 34-7 win at Michigan State was finally enough to buy in on the Golden Gophers. Minnesota makes its 2022 debut at No. 21.

Michigan, which was finally tested against Maryland, hung on for a 34-27 win and maintained the No. 4 spot nationally.

Based on both performances, it seems dubious to me that there’s a 17-team gap between the Wolverines and Gophers. There might not be any gap, actually. Objectively speaking, both teams should probably be ranked somewhere around 10th.

But when you’re battling the bias of history — good for the Wolverines, bad for the Gophers — these corrections tend not to show up in the polls until mid-October at the soonest.

Michigan doesn’t deserve No. 4 — yet​

The Wolverines are still coasting on last year’s accomplishments while also giving voters little reason to think they aren’t capable of another CFP run this season.

They certainly are capable. But Michigan needs to beat a ranked opponent or win a road game before being considered a valid Top-5 team. That’s how historically bad Michigan’s non-conference slate is this season. It has a chance to hurt the Wolverines in the eyes of the College Football Playoff committee when that time comes.

Here’s what each opponent has been up to:

Colorado State

  • Lost to Michigan, 51-7
  • Lost to Middle Tennessee State, 34-19
  • Lost to Washington State, 38-7
  • Lost to FCS Sacramento State, 41-10
Sacramento State’s win is the fourth-most lopsided victory for an FCS team over an FBS opponent in NCAA history.

Hawaii

  • Lost to Vanderbilt, 63-10
  • Lost to Western Kentucky, 49-17
  • Lost to Michigan, 56-10
  • Beat FCS Duquesne, 24-14
  • Lost to New Mexico State, 45-26
Duquesne is 1-3 with its lone win coming against Division II Thomas More.

Connecticut

  • Lost to Utah State, 31-20
  • Beat FCS Central Connecticut State, 28-3
  • Lost to Syracuse, 48-14
  • Lost to Michigan, 59-0
  • Lost to NC State, 41-10
Central Connecticut State is 0-4, including a 70-6 loss to Southeastern Louisiana.

Michigan’s 3 non-conference opponents are a combined 0-11 against FBS opponents. Their lone wins are over struggling FCS teams. And the other team lost to an FCS school by 31 points.

No. 5 Clemson has proven itself with a road win at Wake Forest. No. 6 USC did the same with a road win at Oregon State. Even No. 11 Penn State has proven far more about itself than Michigan with road wins at Auburn and Purdue.

The Maryland win was not a compelling enough piece of evidence to deem Michigan a legit Playoff contender. The score was even after Michigan was gifted a touchdown in the first 7 seconds thanks to the opening kickoff bouncing off the return man’s helmet.

It could be that Maryland is itself a legit Top 25 team. And in turn, Michigan may prove its top-5 bona fides against Iowa and Penn State over the next 3 weeks. But this is about right now.

And Minnesota looked no less than Michigan’s equal in its Saturday slaughter of Michigan State. Maybe even a little better.

Minnesota makes a statement​

Before Michigan fans can say “What about Minnesota’s schedule?” — yeah, it’s bad too. But not quite as bad as Michigan’s.

New Mexico State

  • Lost to Nevada, 23-13
  • Lost to Minnesota, 38-0
  • Lost to UTEP, 20-13
  • Lost to Wisconsin, 66-7
  • Beat Hawaii, 45-26
This is actually a pretty helpful comparison, establishing that Minnesota’s win over New Mexico State is stronger than Michigan’s win over Hawaii. Granted, that’s like a strongman competition where someone curled a 4-pound weight over a 3-pound weight.

Western Illinois

  • Lost to Minnesota, 62-10
  • Lost to FCS Southern Utah, 17-10
  • Lost to FCS Tennessee-Martin, 42-25
  • Lost to FCS Northern Iowa, 52-17
The counterargument for Michigan fans: the Wolverines didn’t schedule any FCS teams, much less a bad FCS team. But one wonders if the Leathernecks might give Colorado State a game.

Colorado

  • Lost to TCU, 38-13
  • Lost to Air Force, 41-10
  • Lost to Minnesota, 49-7
  • Lost to UCLA, 45-17
Of all the years for Colorado and Colorado State not to play one another … the Buffaloes and Rams may have both punched their tickets to 0-12 by skipping their rivalry game. But while the Buffs are bad, they’re also victims of their own schedule.

For reasons beyond comprehension, Colorado AD Rick George scheduled 2 non-conference road games (Air Force and Minnesota) while playing a Power 5 opponent in the other non-conference game. So it’s possible the Buffs have 3-9 talent trapped in an 0-12 body.

Thankfully, we can put all of that behind us at this point. This is no longer about Charmin-soft non-conference schedules, but what each team does in Big Ten play.

And in that regard, Minnesota unquestionably has a better resume right now. Michigan State clearly isn’t what it was a year ago, but to throttle the Spartans in East Lansing is a feat. Minnesota hasn’t beaten Michigan State by 27 points since 1958.

And that last sentence is illustrative as to why Minnesota finds itself down at No. 21. Fleck led the Gophers to a No. 10 national finish in 2019, but prior to that Minnesota hadn’t finished in the Top 10 since 1962. Minnesota just isn’t a name that sticks in the forefront of voters’ minds like Michigan does.

Unfortunately, there’s no Battle for the Little Brown Jug this year to demonstrate just how close these teams likely are on the field. Perhaps we’ll get one in Indianapolis. If we don’t, it’s on the Gophers to keep opening eyes to their legitimacy.


Go Gophers!!
I’ll be shocked if Michigan finishes in the top 20. Loved that they beat O$U last year but they are ranked on last year’s reputation for sure and that happens lots in college ball. Think they will lose one game they shouldn’t and get ear holed by O$U and by Penn state. Long season but they lost a ton and we will see.
 




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