B1G FanDuel win totals

[ergopher]

Pretty interesting choices here, in my opinion. Gophers are put at 6.5 wins, which feels like more respect than we usually get from these.

 

[fmlizard]

This is quite predictable for this kind of thing

Everyone finishes in the same order as last year (which will of course happen) except Minnesota goes down a bit, Nebraska goes up a bit, and Michigan pulls even with Indiana.

Minnesota down, Nebraska up, everyone else stays the same has been a feature of every pre-September ranking for the last decade.

 

[Some guy]

are these straight up or with some odds on them

These odds have us winning more games than
Purdue
Northwestern
Rutgers
Wisconsin
Michigan state

Fewer games than
Ohio state
Oregon
Nebraska
Iowa

Long story short. If you think this team beats Buffalo and northwestern state, bet the over.
And that’s without seeing Cal’d projection

 

[fmlizard]

are these straight up or with some odds on them

These odds have us winning more games than
Purdue
Northwestern
Rutgers
Wisconsin
Michigan state

Fewer games than
Ohio state
Oregon
Nebraska
Iowa

Long story short. If you think this team beats Buffalo and northwestern state, bet the over.
And that’s without seeing Cal’d projection

When you put it that way, the 2025 schedule ain't that bad. Considering 5 B1G opponents are projected to miss a bowl, 2 more should be easy wins, and @Cal, Nebraska, and @iowa are all quite winnable.

That's 10 games I see where the Gophers would be favored or no worse than a 7 pt dog based on how 2024 ended up.

 

[Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0]

are these straight up or with some odds on them

These odds have us winning more games than
Purdue
Northwestern
Rutgers
Wisconsin
Michigan state

Fewer games than
Ohio state
Oregon
Nebraska
Iowa

Long story short. If you think this team beats Buffalo and northwestern state, bet the over.
And that’s without seeing Cal’d projection

Cal also at 6.5 it appears.

 

[Some guy]

When you put it that way, the 2025 schedule ain't that bad. Considering 5 B1G opponents are projected to miss a bowl, 2 more should be easy wins, and @Cal, Nebraska, and @iowa are all quite winnable.

That's 10 games I see where the Gophers would be favored or no worse than a 7 pt dog based on how 2024 ended up.

Correct. The new big ten we are much less likely to get a schedule we feel we can go 12-0 against but more likely to get a schedule we feel we can go 9-3 against.

 

[Breakin' The Plane]

Requires a leap of faith at QB, but if they get anything close to Brosmer level and don't win 10 games or more, I'm going to be disappointed.

 

[mngg11]

Requires a leap of faith at QB, but if they get anything close to Brosmer level and don't win 10 games or more, I'm going to be disappointed.

I think our schedule is super favorable this coming season. Just like last season, the QB spot makes or breaks it - it's time for another 2019.

 

[GopherTheJugular]

Take the under on Indiana! Usually when a team comes out of nowhere and surprises, they are rated higher than should be for next year.

@iowa, @Oregon, @Penn State should be losses; they would have to win every other game in order for the OVER to pay out.

 

[upnorthkid]

Take the under on Indiana! Usually when a team comes out of nowhere and surprises, they are rated higher than should be for next year.

@iowa, @Oregon, @Penn State should be losses; they would have to win every other game in order for the OVER to pay out.

Yeah I’d expect Indy a step back without seeing their schedule.

 

[Some guy]

Requires a leap of faith at QB, but if they get anything close to Brosmer level and don't win 10 games or more, I'm going to be disappointed.

I think 8 or more is my level needed to avoid disappointment
I think 10 is on the table and 11 is the goal.

Beat the teams you’re better than and teams you’re close to and you’re probably 9-0
Probably 1 of those 10 rises up to be above the rest like Iowa or Nebraska or someone….


Then go 1-2 against the top 3 opponents

That’s a great year, fringe playoff team.

Last year Miami, BYU, Army, and Memphis were the only 4 two loss teams left out of the playoff.

 

[Schnauzer]

I freely admit to having maroon and gold glasses but it just "feels" to me like MN gets underrated every year while Nebraska gets overrated every year.

Given this prediction of 6.5, it is another way of saying the Gophers are going to be worse against an easier schedule. That is a pretty significant drop off.

 

[Some guy]

I freely admit to having maroon and gold glasses but it just "feels" to me like MN gets underrated every year while Nebraska gets overrated every year.

Given this prediction of 6.5, it is another way of saying the Gophers are going to be worse against an easier schedule. That is a pretty significant drop off.

That’s why I asked about odds

These aren’t straight up over under numbers



I’ve seen one where Mn is 6.5 -142
Nebraska is 7.5 -122
Meaning Vegas thinks they’re both going over but Vegas is more confident in Mn

Iowa is over 6.5 -185 but another place has them over 7.5 +138
Meaning Vegas thinks it’s going to be almost right on 7

Wisconsin is 5.5 +130 (meaning Vegas thinks they’re more likely to go under)

 

[Some guy]

And we also have to keep in mind Vegas isn’t just Predicting winners. It is predicting winners in a way that makes them the most money given what people will bet on


Nebraska is always overvalued because they need Nebraska’s +/- higher otherwise all those fans go over and they are creating an imbalance in their books aka risk

 

[WoodburyTim]

This is quite predictable for this kind of thing

Everyone finishes in the same order as last year (which will of course happen) except Minnesota goes down a bit, Nebraska goes up a bit, and Michigan pulls even with Indiana.

Minnesota down, Nebraska up, everyone else stays the same has been a feature of every pre-September ranking for the last decade.

I should have started a hedge fund 15 years ago where all we do is take the under in Nebraska win totals. I would be the Wizard of Wall Street.

 

[GopherTheJugular]

I should have started a hedge fund 15 years ago where all we do is take the under in Nebraska win totals. I would be the Wizard of Wall Street.

Yeah those Scott Frost years were almost must-see TV with the way they would keep finding ways to loose. Not gonna look it up, but I imagine the over/under was pretty high heading into that first year. Then faceplant.

 

[MNfootballfan]

If they weren't our rival, I would really feel bad for Wisconsin. Instead, I will just smile and laugh.
Miami OH - Win
Middle Tennessee - Win
At Alabama- Loss
Maryland- Win
At Michigan Loss
Iowa - I would guess Loss
Ohio State - Loss
At Oregon - Loss
Washington - I would guess win?
At Indiana - Loss (unless IU is a one year wonder)
Illinois - Must win, but would be tough
At Minnesota - Loss

Should be Wins: Miami OH, Middle Tennessee
Should be Losses: Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon
Winnable games: Maryland, Iowa, Washington, Indiana, Illinois, and Minnesota - somehow they have to win 4 of these games to be bowl eligible. Not impossible, but none are 'easy'

 

[gopherbadgerman]

And we also have to keep in mind Vegas isn’t just Predicting winners. It is predicting winners in a way that makes them the most money given what people will bet on


Nebraska is always overvalued because they need Nebraska’s +/- higher otherwise all those fans go over and they are creating an imbalance in their books aka risk

110% correct.