B1G Balance of Power

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Schnauzer

Schnauzer

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It is interesting the way the conferences lay out and the balance between the good teams and the bad teams. It isn't common for everyone to be great at the same time, or for everyone to suck at the same time (although I'd argue the ACC nearly pulled off the 'everyone sucks at the same time' with the exception of Clemson this season).

Nobody can truly predict the future. Coaches come and go. Talent can come and go. But for a long time it has seemed like for one team to rise, another has to fall in the B1G.

Perhaps this is a blip or a one year phenomenon but to me it seems like Minnesota has basically replaced Michigan State in the "contender but not blue blood" level in the B1G. Michigan State suddenly looks a lot like Minnesota used to look. Perhaps some of this MN mojo has come from Nebraska too. With Nebraska and Michigan State taking a step back, Indiana has stepped up too.

In the not too distant past, Michigan fell off and that void was filled by Michigan State. As Michigan got better, Michigan State got worse.

Unfortunately I am not seeing any drop off with Wisconsin or Iowa, now or in the near future. MN seems to be poised to be the next Wisconsin or at least Iowa, but that road will be difficult unless the rivals fall off. No matter how many teams improve themselves, there are still the same number of losses to be had within the conference each year. To some degree, I think the entire conference has gone up a notch in recent years.

Can both Michigan State and Michigan be great over a long period of time? MN, Iowa and Wisconsin?

The B1G used to be called the Big 2 and little 8. I'd say now it is the Big 1, medium large 5, medium small 7, and tiny 1.
 

For every team that wins in conference another has to lose. - Captain Obvious

Hard to see much drop-off from the Gophers with the returning players on offense. We will be very good again as opposing teams are going to need to score over 25-30 points to beat our offense.

The big question for Minny is what happens after next season? Andries is the only senior on the offensive line, but will FaAlele look towards the NFL? Anyone else? Bateman is surely going to be gone IMO. Will PJ be able to replace all these players like Wisconsin has been able to?

Another good year and receivers will flock to be schooled by Fleck! We have a very good chance to take the mantle as Receiver U! Especially if someone can rise and join Batemen with over 1,000 yards next year! PJ and staff are exceptional at teaching route running and the players will get open.

Need to keep building up lineman to keep pressure off our quarterback.
 

I think Michigan State for a long time was effectively the role model for MN... and really every other team with aspirations in the B1G.


I agree that Ohio St. has pulled away and now it is an amalgam of teams in the middle. I like that better than Big 2.
 

I think the "balance of power" can shift rather quickly. Northwestern went from winning the west in 2018 to being one of the worst P5 teams in the country. The Gophers went from a marginal team in 2018 to a very good team in 2019.
 

As long as the Big Ten keeps this current alignment the two divisions will always look very different.

The East will be top heavy, Ohio State has separated a little at the moment but Michigan and Penn State will never be that far behind. MSU is the one team that has shown an ability to hang with the big dogs at times in the East. The outlook will never be good for Indiana, Maryland, and Rutgers in the East.

The West should be a free for all pretty much every year if teams/coaches live up to expectations. Wisconsin has been the cream of the crop in the West but not in the same dominant way that Ohio State has been in the East. If Brohm and Frost live up to the hype the West could be extremely competitive from top to bottom on a yearly basis. At the moment there is a clear top 3 in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa but the other 4 teams could all in theory rise up and win the division any given year. Unlike the East there is no team in the West that should feel like they have no shot to win the division the way Indiana, Rutgers and Maryland do.
 


MNVCGUY said:
As long as the Big Ten keeps this current alignment the two divisions will always look very different.

The East will be top heavy, Ohio State has separated a little at the moment but Michigan and Penn State will never be that far behind. MSU is the one team that has shown an ability to hang with the big dogs at times in the East. The outlook will never be good for Indiana, Maryland, and Rutgers in the East.

The West should be a free for all pretty much every year if teams/coaches live up to expectations. Wisconsin has been the cream of the crop in the West but not in the same dominant way that Ohio State has been in the East. If Brohm and Frost live up to the hype the West could be extremely competitive from top to bottom on a yearly basis. At the moment there is a clear top 3 in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa but the other 4 teams could all in theory rise up and win the division any given year. Unlike the East there is no team in the West that should feel like they have no shot to win the division the way Indiana, Rutgers and Maryland do.
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The last few years have shown MSU turning back into a pumpkin, I'm wondering what they need to do as a program to actually compete again.
 

It's interesting that we (I include myself) assume that certain things will always remain the same.

Always is a very long time. And, in my experience, change is the only true constant.
 

BeerFueledFF said:
The last few years have shown MSU turning back into a pumpkin, I'm wondering what they need to do as a program to actually compete again.
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It's possible they just got out all they could of Mark Dantonio ... we'll see if they hang with him and if he can rebuild.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
It's possible they just got out all they could of Mark Dantonio ... we'll see if they hang with him and if he can rebuild.
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I thought they should have moved on after this season, but from what I've heard the AD is handcuffed from all the scandals and doesn't have the ability to make that type of move.
 



In the East - the elite three will always be above the other four. But I see no reason that any of the other four -- once Maryland and Rutgers get up to speed, which could be a decade+ out -- can't hang with those three, or at the bottom of those three, for an extended period of time. Indiana is that team right now, having overtaken Mich State.

In the West - we don't have the same elite level, but in terms of stadium size, attendance/support, resources, etc. Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska are the largest, with the other four being smaller.


Every Big Ten team has essentially three seasons:
- 3 non-conf games, where it's possible for every team to go 3-0
- 3 games against the other division, where it's possible for every team in the division to go 3-0 but not possible for the entire conference to go 3-0
- 6 games within the division, where it's not possible for every team in the division to go 6-0

Focusing on the West for a moment, if you were able to assume 6-0 for the top three West teams (right now easy to argue that's Wisc, Minn, and Iowa) in non-conf and cross-div, then you could have those three going up to 12-0, 11-1, and 10-2. I would argue at least a 10 win season is a great season.

So in that sense, it is possible for all three in the West to have great seasons.


That kinda happened in the East this year. Ohio St beat everyone, Penn State only lost to Ohio St, and Michigan only lost to Ohio St and Penn St. Except that Penn St and Michigan each lost to a West team.
 

RememberMurray said:
It's interesting that we (I include myself) assume that certain things will always remain the same.

Always is a very long time. And, in my experience, change is the only true constant.
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Very true, but in regards to the East it seems pretty safe to say that the prospects in football are always going to look bad for Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland, and most of the time Michigan State. Ohio State may not always be dominant but the odds of OSU, PSU and Michigan all being bad at the same time are pretty slim.

it would take a lot for one of the other 4 to unseat those 3 from the top of the division.
 

BeerFueledFF said:
I thought they should have moved on after this season, but from what I've heard the AD is handcuffed from all the scandals and doesn't have the ability to make that type of move.
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There were some reports that desperately were trying to tie Dantonio to some of the scandals (to be clear there is NOTHING that ties him to them) ... sometimes I wondered if it was some folks trying to force the AD's hand when it comes to him.

But really there are a lot of other explanations for those reports so who knows.
 

A_Slab_of_Bacon said:
It's possible they just got out all they could of Mark Dantonio ... we'll see if they hang with him and if he can rebuild.
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This reminds me of a good discussion that I listened to on a podcast a while back. There are a lot of signs Dantonio has reached his productive limit at Michigan State but his contract is such that it will be very difficult for either side to stick a fork in the situation. Dantonio is a tough one to fire not only because of buyout but because of the successful history he has built there, and being the most successful coach they have ever had. Meanwhile, it is tough for Dantonio to retire because he'd be walking away from a LOT of money. So, at least for now the University and coach seem to be stuck with each other in a declining situation.

Their recruiting has taken a BIG hit. Once there is blood in the water, it becomes easy for the sharks (competing programs) to circle and further accelerate a decline. Any time a coach is rumored to be fired, it becomes even more difficult for them to climb out of the hole. It becomes a downward spiral.
 



BeerFueledFF said:
The last few years have shown MSU turning back into a pumpkin, I'm wondering what they need to do as a program to actually compete again.
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Lewerke had one nice year in 2017, but otherwise did not have near the production as Connor Cook and Kirk Cousins did in 2013-2015 and 2010-2011 respectively. Those were Mich State's best seasons.

I don't know if that has to do with the QB talent itself, or lack of talent on the rest of the team. Probably a combination.
 

MplsGopher said:
So in that sense, it is possible for all three in the West to have great seasons.


That kinda happened in the East this year. Ohio St beat everyone, Penn State only lost to Ohio St, and Michigan only lost to Ohio St and Penn St. Except that Penn St and Michigan each lost to a West team.
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I don't know that you can really lump the crossover games into their own category because the degree of difficulty for each team is going to be very different based on who they play.

The possibility exists each year for 3-4 teams to battle it out at the top of each division. The primary difference is that in the East you can assume each year that most of the teams battling for the top spot will come from the group of OSU, PSU and Michigan whereas in the West there could be a lot more fluctuation in teams.
 

Dantonio had a bad heart attack years ago and probably doesn't have the vigor he used to have and losing his DC to Pitt was also a blow.
He looks like a stubborn man and will not go away easily.
 

Plato said:
Dantonio had a bad heart attack years ago and probably doesn't have the vigor he used to have and losing his DC to Pitt was also a blow.
He looks like a stubborn man and will not go away easily.
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That is another good point. Narduzzi had been with Dantonio since 2004 at Cincy.

And his Pitt teams have been meh in the easy ACC.
 

MNVCGUY said:
I don't know that you can really lump the crossover games into their own category because the degree of difficulty for each team is going to be very different based on who they play.
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Can't you say the same for non-conf, if one team decides to go balls to the wall on scheduling?

I just did it that way based on the potential for every team to go undefeated or not, is all.
 

The balance of power is indeed changing in the Big Ten. The dynamics have changed from the 70's and 80's days of the Big 2 and little 8 as 4 new teams have come into play.

Things are different today though. Several of the dominating teams that had overwhelming success every year have fallen such as Nebraska and Michigan and I think they are confused how this happened. They still have the giant stadiums, rabid fan bases and excellent facilities but now the talent has been dispersed quite a bit and it's much tougher to get those 10-11 wins or more every season. Facilities have evened out a bit and a lot of it is coming down to good coaching and schemes.

Today teams such as the Gophers have a much better chance at competing with the top teams on a level playing field. Back in the day you could just about guarantee a loss to Michigan or Ohio St. every year but I think those days are gone -- hopefully for good! The Gophers have an excellent chance at winning -or losing - to any Big Ten team next year depending on how well their team is performing. I like it this way a lot more than back then, that's for sure!!
 

For Michigan, I kinda wonder if Harbaugh is losing interest. Seems that way in his career a bit. Built Stanford up to 12-1 in his fourth season, then goes to the 49ers. Does well there the first three seasons, peters out his fourth season and he leaves again. Now at Michigan in five seasons, he has never won more than 10 games and has only made it to a NY6 bowl once, losing that game and in fact losing the last four bowl games.

Have to think he knows that it just isn't happening. He can't turn the corner on Ohio State, who is truly at another level from everyone else. And Penn St has caught up and recovered from the scandal. Franklin is doing pretty well there.
 

Schnauzer said:
This reminds me of a good discussion that I listened to on a podcast a while back. There are a lot of signs Dantonio has reached his productive limit at Michigan State but his contract is such that it will be very difficult for either side to stick a fork in the situation. Dantonio is a tough one to fire not only because of buyout but because of the successful history he has built there, and being the most successful coach they have ever had. Meanwhile, it is tough for Dantonio to retire because he'd be walking away from a LOT of money. So, at least for now the University and coach seem to be stuck with each other in a declining situation.

Their recruiting has taken a BIG hit. Once there is blood in the water, it becomes easy for the sharks (competing programs) to circle and further accelerate a decline. Any time a coach is rumored to be fired, it becomes even more difficult for them to climb out of the hole. It becomes a downward spiral.
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I can't help but think Harbaugh's returning Michigan to a strong program has hurt Michigan State directly. A zero sum game of sorts. In the past decade, there are only two years, 2011 and 2015, where both teams were decent.
 

And in 2015 Penn State, Indiana, Maryland, and Rutgers were 8-24 in conference.

So whether you blame Michigan or Penn State, regardless there just doesn't seem to be room for all four of OSU, Mich, PSU, and Mich St to be great in the same year. Plus Indiana getting better.
 

Harbaugh himself admits that his personality often leads to his being asked to leave.
 

The story of the season, when it comes to conferences, should be that it is obvious there is no longer truly a “Power 5”. There is only a POWER TWO.

By any reasonable measure, the SEC and Big Ten combined to have at least 11 of the Top 15 teams in the nation this year.

At this point, the PAC 12, Big 12 and ACC could create an alliance to form two football-only conferences and those two conferences would still be much, much weaker that the SEC and Big Ten.
 

Money helps. Those two have the most money. And the rich will get richer.

Programs like Clemson, Oklahoma, USC, and a few more will have to decide how to best stay nationally competitive. Clemson is doing fine on that front, even though they trail in the money dept. They find enough pennies in the couch cushins to make Dabo and staff competitively paid and the football team to have a nationally competitive budget.

But the Oregon State's, Iowa State's, and Georgia Tech's of the world get much less money to compete than the Illinois's and Kentucky's of the world.
 

here's my take.

teams at the top tend to stay on top - for the most part - because they can out-recruit the other teams in the conference.

teams at the bottom tend to stay at the bottom, because they can't out-recruit the other teams.

so the real movement is going to come from the teams in the middle. A team like NW can go from the top of the division to the bottom in one year if everything goes wrong in terms of recruiting, injuries and transfers. Or, a team like MN can jump to the top of the division if everything goes right.

The Gophers had a great year. But the real question is whether they can sustain something even close to that level of success. the next 2 or 3 years will be interesting to watch. If - for the sake of argument - the Gophers drop to an 8- or 9-win season, that does not necessarily mean that Fleck is a fluke. As I said, a blip up or down in recruiting, injuries and transfers can lead to movement for the "middle" teams - and I still classify MN as a "middle" team until they demonstrate that they can stay in the top tier.
One year is not a trend.
 

Goldmember said:
The story of the season, when it comes to conferences, should be that it is obvious there is no longer truly a “Power 5”. There is only a POWER TWO.

By any reasonable measure, the SEC and Big Ten combined to have at least 11 of the Top 15 teams in the nation this year.

At this point, the PAC 12, Big 12 and ACC could create an alliance to form two football-only conferences and those two conferences would still be much, much weaker that the SEC and Big Ten.
Click to expand...

First part my be overstating it just a little.

But in 2019 the SEC and BIG were clearly the deepest of the power 5 conferences in terms of really good teams as the Big 12 and Pac 12 only had 2 each and the ACC was just Clemson.
 

MNVCGUY said:
First part my be overstating it just a little.

But in 2019 the SEC and BIG were clearly the deepest of the power 5 conferences in terms of really good teams as the Big 12 and Pac 12 only had 2 each and the ACC was just Clemson.
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Over the last 5 years the SEC have combined to account for about 50% of the teams in the top 15 of the final polls (with each having roughly the same share).

This year’s 66-75% may be an anomaly, but I think it may be a trend. As Mpls Gopher noted, the SEC and Big Ten just make so much more money. It is hard to imagine that will not eventually translate to the field. And it appears it may have started to.
 

Nebraska has a slowly cooking problem of football irrelevance. Doesn't their state produce the fewest top recruits in the B1G? If Frost doesn't right the ship, that math has to be an uncomfortable thought.
 

Schnauzer said:
It is interesting the way the conferences lay out and the balance between the good teams and the bad teams. It isn't common for everyone to be great at the same time, or for everyone to suck at the same time (although I'd argue the ACC nearly pulled off the 'everyone sucks at the same time' with the exception of Clemson this season).

Nobody can truly predict the future. Coaches come and go. Talent can come and go. But for a long time it has seemed like for one team to rise, another has to fall in the B1G.

Perhaps this is a blip or a one year phenomenon but to me it seems like Minnesota has basically replaced Michigan State in the "contender but not blue blood" level in the B1G. Michigan State suddenly looks a lot like Minnesota used to look. Perhaps some of this MN mojo has come from Nebraska too. With Nebraska and Michigan State taking a step back, Indiana has stepped up too.

In the not too distant past, Michigan fell off and that void was filled by Michigan State. As Michigan got better, Michigan State got worse.

Unfortunately I am not seeing any drop off with Wisconsin or Iowa, now or in the near future. MN seems to be poised to be the next Wisconsin or at least Iowa, but that road will be difficult unless the rivals fall off. No matter how many teams improve themselves, there are still the same number of losses to be had within the conference each year. To some degree, I think the entire conference has gone up a notch in recent years.

Can both Michigan State and Michigan be great over a long period of time? MN, Iowa and Wisconsin?

The B1G used to be called the Big 2 and little 8. I'd say now it is the Big 1, medium large 5, medium small 7, and tiny 1.
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Im assuming you’re referring to Rutgers. I believe they don’t even deserve a mention. If we have to mention them, I’d call them “quarks”.
 

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