Axios Sports: No football would break college sports

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First, we don't know when colleges are going to reopen. Second, no school is going to give their athletic departments loans, when financial survival of the school is in question. Third, we don't know if the Covid-19 patients build immunity to the virus.
 

Dean S said:
First, we don't know when colleges are going to reopen. Second, no school is going to give their athletic departments loans, when financial survival of the school is in question. Third, we don't know if the Covid-19 patients build immunity to the virus.
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We know they build an immunity, the question is how long it lasts.
 

The % of "young ' people dying ranges from 20-40 % of deaths depending on the source.
But it does not matter unless you consider older people with pre existing conditions deposable.
 

Underlying conditions appear to be a higher risk factor than old age.

 

Dean S said:
First, we don't know when colleges are going to reopen. Second, no school is going to give their athletic departments loans, when financial survival of the school is in question. Third, we don't know if the Covid-19 patients build immunity to the virus.
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The University has a $3.9 billion endowment. They aren't 'struggling to survive'. The state will go bankrupt long before the University does.

The U's athletics department could easily take out a year's worth of loans from the parent institution or any pension fund because their default risk is essentially 0.0% and treasuries offer no yield.
 


Plato said:
There are some people here practicing medicine and epidemiology without a license.
Fauci knows what he is talking about. Have you ignored the scenes from Italian or NYC hospitals? That does not happen in influenza season.
Other countries are doing the relief efforts better by paying companies not to lay off workers. When the latest disaster relief bill went through Congress it was held up because some reactionaries in the Senate thought the unemployment benefits were too generous!!
So, the mortality rate among the sick is at least 1% and given the large number of the sick not an insignificant number if it it includes your parents or grand parents.
The true mortality number based on the total infected cannot be determined because of the criminal negligence in this administration in not having an accurate, quick test available.The intelligence about how serious this virus is was available to POTUS in early Feb.
The waiting period for results still is about TWO WEEKS!
In any event it does not matter what people on this board think. We are going to be shut down until the wave of infections is over. In the absence of testing that means being shut down is the only solution.
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I can tell you right now that $1200 in 2 weeks isn't going to be enough to keep people afloat in big cities like NYC and SF. People are going to get very upset about this shutdown sooner than you think, regardless of how many might die.

Moreover, there is not a 1% death rate. That rate is the result of only testing people that get hospitalized.
 



Here's what Iowa State is implementing:
  1. A one-year, temporary pay reduction for athletics department coaches and certain staff. This comprehensive plan will reduce total payroll by more than $3M.
  2. A one-year, temporary suspension of all bonuses/incentives for all coaches. This decision will save the department $1M.
  3. Delaying (from January 2021 to January 2022) a previously announced increase in Cyclone Club annual giving levels. The delay will save donors approximately $2.5M for required seating donations.
  4. A freeze on season / individual game ticket prices for all sports.
  5. An extension to the deadline for this year's Cyclone Club donations and football season ticket renewals to May 29, 2020.
  6. Providing multiple payment options for season tickets and donations. Those required payments can be made monthly, quarterly or semi-annually.
 



hello-world said:
The University has a $3.9 billion endowment. They aren't 'struggling to survive'. The state will go bankrupt long before the University does.

The U's athletics department could easily take out a year's worth of loans from the parent institution or any pension fund because their default risk is essentially 0.0% and treasuries offer no yield.
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And, when next season is cancelled, then what? Ask for more donations? You assume things will be normal next fall. Let me give you a clue, the economy is shut down. We have not yet peaked in cases. We can only guess that cases will reduce. I have seen estimates that some peaks will not occur until August. That is well into fall practice. At best, we might see a reduced season.

As for the average fan, I think they will be paying off bills, helping others pay off bills, and volunteering to feed the souls who are still jobless with anything they can scrape together. If Covid-19 continues in any scale other than zero cases, there will be no large gatherings on the scale of a full football stadium.

There is still no study that suggest we will have immunity from SARS-CoV-2 or if the other 7 strains can get you sick again or what those strains disease state looks like.

You appear more optimistic. That's okay. I hold a view that this is going to take several months or even years to get over, if ever as far as the impact on society. We shall see.

The risk isn't on the interest, it is on the principal. If there are no students on campus, and campus activities remain cancelled, then say goodbye to the athletic department. Giving them a loan would be pointless, billion dollar endowment or not. And, I would venture to say that endowment is not worth what it was a month ago. In which case, the stewardship of that endowment will become more stringent, not less.
 



Dean S said:
And, when next season is cancelled, then what? Ask for more donations? You assume things will be normal next fall. Let me give you a clue, the economy is shut down. We have not yet peaked in cases. We can only guess that cases will reduce. I have seen estimates that some peaks will not occur until August. That is well into fall practice. At best, we might see a reduced season.

As for the average fan, I think they will be paying off bills, helping others pay off bills, and volunteering to feed the souls who are still jobless with anything they can scrape together. If Covid-19 continues in any scale other than zero cases, there will be no large gatherings on the scale of a full football stadium.

There is still no study that suggest we will have immunity from SARS-CoV-2 or if the other 7 strains can get you sick again or what those strains disease state looks like.

You appear more optimistic. That's okay. I hold a view that this is going to take several months or even years to get over, if ever as far as the impact on society. We shall see.

The risk isn't on the interest, it is on the principal. If there are no students on campus, and campus activities remain cancelled, then say goodbye to the athletic department. Giving them a loan would be pointless, billion dollar endowment or not. And, I would venture to say that endowment is not worth what it was a month ago. In which case, the stewardship of that endowment will become more stringent, not less.
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They have $3.9 billion in assets to secure a loan of like $50 million to make up for lost football revenue. They'll be fine.

We're not going to stay locked down for 12 months. People would riot and a black market economy would spring up for all of these unemployed people. It's not going to happen.

Throughout documented economic history the economy has always recovered. On average we bottom 3 months after exogenous shocks. Unless you have a crystal ball that shows The Postman playing out 3 years from now, we'll be just fine.

The biggest risk to Gopher Football is a giant economic pullback. Maybe they'll need to cut prices. They'll survive.
 



Dean S said:
And, when next season is cancelled, then what? Ask for more donations? You assume things will be normal next fall. Let me give you a clue, the economy is shut down. We have not yet peaked in cases. We can only guess that cases will reduce. I have seen estimates that some peaks will not occur until August. That is well into fall practice. At best, we might see a reduced season.

As for the average fan, I think they will be paying off bills, helping others pay off bills, and volunteering to feed the souls who are still jobless with anything they can scrape together. If Covid-19 continues in any scale other than zero cases, there will be no large gatherings on the scale of a full football stadium.

There is still no study that suggest we will have immunity from SARS-CoV-2 or if the other 7 strains can get you sick again or what those strains disease state looks like.

You appear more optimistic. That's okay. I hold a view that this is going to take several months or even years to get over, if ever as far as the impact on society. We shall see.

The risk isn't on the interest, it is on the principal. If there are no students on campus, and campus activities remain cancelled, then say goodbye to the athletic department. Giving them a loan would be pointless, billion dollar endowment or not. And, I would venture to say that endowment is not worth what it was a month ago. In which case, the stewardship of that endowment will become more stringent, not less.
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We Know we have immunity to it, stop saying we don't know, we do. We are working on antibody testing to clear people for return to work, we are also working on CPT using these antibodies. What we don't know or has not been made public is how long the immunity lasts. Based on related viruses it could last 6 months to 3 years. Going forward we need to know this to implement plans, but it is good news they are talking about allowing people back to work. They probably wouldn't be doing that if it were on the short end...?

Additionally, the strains of the virus are closely related and is a slow mutating virus. The don't think the differences will have a major affect on immunity or that the virus will get more deadly.

Not everything is bad news.

I do agree once we shut things down, the perception is going to need to be a near zero risk for many people to come back or for institutions to take on liability. I don't see sports this year as an option, half of next year might be out the window as well. Depends how many people get it or if a vaccine comes sooner than expected.
 
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GopherWeatherGuy said:
That is not true
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It is true.
Either you believe the Dear Leader or the facts. In a few places the turn around time is shorter. I know of a person who was exposed in a doctors's office she self quarantined at home She just got her negative results two weeks after the test was taken.
www.cnn.com

Documents show backlog of 160,000 coronavirus tests at just one lab company

As the US health care system has scrambled to track the spread of coronavirus, one of the nation's largest commercial labs has faced a backlog of tests that ballooned in the last two weeks, and has delayed results in some cases up to 10 days.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
 

Dean S said:
First, we don't know when colleges are going to reopen. Second, no school is going to give their athletic departments loans, when financial survival of the school is in question. Third, we don't know if the Covid-19 patients build immunity to the virus.
Click to expand...
Why would financial survival of the school be in question?
 

hello-world said:
Moreover, there is not a 1% death rate. That rate is the result of only testing people that get hospitalized.
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What about the people who died of the disease, who never had the opportunity to get tested?

How can you prove the number, in either case?
 

So_Money said:
We Know we have immunity to it, stop saying we don't know, we do. We are working on antibody testing to clear people for return to work, we are also working on CPT using these antibodies. What we don't know or has not been made public is how long the immunity lasts. Based on related viruses it could last 6 months to 3 years.
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If the virus mutates sufficiently, you do not have immunity.

We don't know, yet.
 

MplsGopher said:
If the virus mutates sufficiently, you do not have immunity.

We don't know, yet.
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As I said this is viewed as a slow mutating virus and the differences now or in the foreseeable future will not impact immunity, that is how they see it. The 8 strains are not clinically different. Maybe you know better? That or you are just tossing things around that are not legitimately viewed as likely...and for what reason?
 
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Plato said:
It is true.
Either you believe the Dear Leader or the facts. In a few places the turn around time is shorter. I know of a person who was exposed in a doctors's office she self quarantined at home She just got her negative results two weeks after the test was taken.
www.cnn.com

Documents show backlog of 160,000 coronavirus tests at just one lab company

As the US health care system has scrambled to track the spread of coronavirus, one of the nation's largest commercial labs has faced a backlog of tests that ballooned in the last two weeks, and has delayed results in some cases up to 10 days.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
Click to expand...

So you're going to use one person and one lab as proof? Try reading your own article. The first lab in the article has processed 45,000 tests just since the article was posted last night.

One of the nation's largest commercial labs has faced a backlog of tests that ballooned in the last two weeks, and has delayed results in some cases up to 10 days.

A spokesperson for Quest, Wendy Bost, told CNN the backlog for coronavirus tests has begun to shrink in recent days as the company has expanded its capacity, which now amounts to more than 30,000 tests a day and an average turnaround time of four to five days.

Some commercial labs have said they have cut backlogs that developed after they initially rolled out coronavirus tests. A spokesperson for the company Eurofins, for example, said its labs are now running 7,000 tests a day with a 24-hour turnaround time.
 

MplsGopher said:
What about the people who died of the disease, who never had the opportunity to get tested?

How can you prove the number, in either case?
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You can't, but it is far more likely that our death rate skews high due to testing primarily being administered to people seeking medical care. The number who died of COVID-19 without ending up in the hospital or never being tested is probably much smaller.
 

So_Money said:
As I said this is viewed as a slow mutating virus and the differences now or in the foreseeable future will not impact immunity, that is how they see it. The 8 strains are not clinically different. Maybe you know better? That or you are just tossing things around that are not legitimately viewed as likely...and for what reason?
Click to expand...
You're throwing around a lot of claims here, as if they're to be taken for granted and ubiquitously agreed upon. That's not the case for most aspects, with this disease, at this time. It's brand new to us and a lot of research on it is ongoing.
 

hello-world said:
You can't, but it is far more likely that our death rate skews high due to testing primarily being administered to people seeking medical care. The number who died of COVID-19 without ending up in the hospital or never being tested is probably much smaller.
Click to expand...
I don't think there is any way to prove that, right now.

What I would like to see is a large, random sample of people across the country (in all aspects, geography as well as metro vs rural) who report as not experiencing any symptoms, and give them the anti-body test. That would be tremendously valuable data, and much better help us understand the likely percentage of our country's population that might've already had the virus in their bodies.
 

MplsGopher said:
You're throwing around a lot of claims here, as if they're to be taken for granted and ubiquitously agreed upon. That's not the case for most aspects, with this disease, at this time. It's brand new to us and a lot of research on it is ongoing.
Click to expand...

I have not seen one piece of information claiming otherwise, so I would say it is a consensus. That said you are correct there is a lot we don't know, especially the public. And like most of the public an appeal to experts is all we have. Experts, ones that have gone on the record, do not feel mutation is an issue. Misleading headlines and clickbait differing from the substance of what is said is mostly to blame for unfounded fear.
 
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So_Money said:
I have not seen one piece of information claiming otherwise, so I would say it is a consensus. That said you are correct there is a lot we don't know, especially the public. And like most of the public an appeal to experts is all we have. Experts, ones that have gone on the record, do not feel mutation is an issue. Misleading headlines and clickbait differing from the substance of what is said is mostly to blame for unfounded fear.
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I’m surprised to learn that there are experts on record saying that the mutation we’ve seen so far - 8 different strains are active globally - is definitively not an indication that inter-strain immunity is any concern. If they have, fine. I’m not up to date on all such interviews or articles.
 

MplsGopher said:
I’m surprised to learn that there are experts on record saying that the mutation we’ve seen so far - 8 different strains are active globally - is definitively not an indication that inter-strain immunity is any concern. If they have, fine. I’m not up to date on all such interviews or articles.
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It has been clearly and repeatedly stated there is no clinical deference between the strains, there is little difference between them. They do not feel immunity is affected. There is a bunch that has been said including about dominant strains taking over because of this immunity preventing less prevalent strains re-infecting people. And these dominant strains may not be the same from region to region because of this.

The unknowns are still a problem don't get me wrong, in fact when thinking about sports there are too many of them to be confident there will be sports any time soon.
 

Plato said:
There are some people here practicing medicine and epidemiology without a license.
Fauci knows what he is talking about. Have you ignored the scenes from Italian or NYC hospitals? That does not happen in influenza season.
Other countries are doing the relief efforts better by paying companies not to lay off workers. When the latest disaster relief bill went through Congress it was held up because some reactionaries in the Senate thought the unemployment benefits were too generous!!
So, the mortality rate among the sick is at least 1% and given the large number of the sick not an insignificant number if it it includes your parents or grand parents.
The true mortality number based on the total infected cannot be determined because of the criminal negligence in this administration in not having an accurate, quick test available.The intelligence about how serious this virus is was available to POTUS in early Feb.
The waiting period for results still is about TWO WEEKS!
In any event it does not matter what people on this board think. We are going to be shut down until the wave of infections is over. In the absence of testing that means being shut down is the only solution.
Click to expand...

good post. Also where in the world do u get enough HCPs to treat all of the patients? NYC hospitalsare importing nurses from all over the country as they can come here and make 2x/3x what they normally do in their own hospital ICUs. That is not a sustainable model.
 

MplsGopher said:
Why would financial survival of the school be in question?
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I did not say that. I said the endowment would be worth less and that the stewardship of that money would be more strict. I doubt sports would be a priority.
 

Dean S said:
I did not say that. I said the endowment would be worth less and that the stewardship of that money would be more strict. I doubt sports would be a priority.
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I was replying to your statement in post #61, “Second, no school is going to give their athletic departments loans, when financial survival of the school is in question.”

I’m sure the school employs a professional financial company or perhaps even a fund manager to grow the endowment. That has nothing to do with if the school has sports.
 

Guys...let’s see what happens first. Will we have football? Does enrollment drastically drop as a result of our changing world? Is there another virus lurking on the heels of this one about to unleash greater terror? How many businesses close their doors? Will ticket buyers be comfortable in crowds?
Will they have money to buy tickets and make contributions? Only a million unanswered questions right now. Spending money would be reckless...something conservative institutions are not likely to do any time soon.
 

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