Attrition of 2017 and 2018 classes

[Dano564]

I know he was technically not a Fleck recruit, but Neil McLaurin was a 2017 recruit. Fleck could not get him out of here fast enough.

When I pulled the 247, he wasn't on the class (I don't think).

 

[Dano564]

No, I did not. If fleck wants larger upper classes, meaning less attrition, he has to have smaller recruiting classes. He has stated he wants near full upper classes...meaning junior and senior classes.Can't have both.

I think Fleck is looking at it that he wants to have large junior and senior classes, but to do that you need to have large recruiting classes every year, and eventually you'll get a mix of talented players that become Juniors and Seniors together.
So it might be when 2017 and 2018 are Jr's and Sr's, or it might take until the 2019 and 2020 classes are Jr's and Sr's if the 2017-2018 kids aren't good enough to hold their spots. It's hard to have 50 juniors and seniors if you are only bringing in 10-15 per class. Easier to do that with 20-25 per class and help pick players who don't fit your program rather than end up short.

Bottom line appears that Fleck wants to recruit 100 kids every four year span or 125 kids every 5 year span and if you aren't playing by the time you are a red-shirt Junior, we hope you like playing somewhere else, and we'll help ensure you find that spot.

You can already assume that 2017 class kids who don't play much this year are going to transfer or they better have record high GPA's to not break team rules and stay.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Attrition is just part of the deal. You bring in 20+ players hoping to find some stars, some depth, and understanding there will be a number that won't make it our choose to leave for one reason or another. The hope is you find enough quality players that by the time your classes are juniors and seniors you aren't down to just a few guys like we have had many times in the past.

 

[GopherWeatherGuy]

So far Fleck has lost 11 of 50 recruits for an attrition rate of 22%. This is a few years old, but a quick eyeball test says the average in the P5 would be around 40%. Minnesota's was 42% the last time the data was update from 2002 - 2014. https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/2y4waq/power_5_conference_attrition_rates_for_2002/

Fleck's attrition rate will likely climb over the next few years, closer to 40%. If he continues to sign 25 players per class, and keeps 60% of them, that's ~16 per class. 16 x 5 = 80 of the 85 scholarships.

Just based on the average attrition and a little math, they can continue to take 25 per class and the numbers will naturally work out. With redshirts they can also get to the point where they are losing 20-25 upperclassmen and signing 25 freshman.

 

[hungan1]

So far Fleck has lost 11 of 50 recruits for an attrition rate of 22%. This is a few years old, but a quick eyeball test says the average in the P5 would be around 40%. Minnesota's was 42% the last time the data was update from 2002 - 2014. https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/2y4waq/power_5_conference_attrition_rates_for_2002/

Fleck's attrition rate will likely climb over the next few years, closer to 40%. If he continues to sign 25 players per class, and keeps 60% of them, that's ~16 per class. 16 x 5 = 80 of the 85 scholarships.

Just based on the average attrition and a little math, they can continue to take 25 per class and the numbers will naturally work out. With redshirts they can also get to the point where they are losing 20-25 upperclassmen and signing 25 freshman.

Throw in career ending injuries, players graduating early, transfers/grad transfers the numbers start to make sense.