Analyzing the Freshmen Growth this Year

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matt

matt

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Although disappointed with the season, I am excited to watch the growth of the four freshmen over the next couple years (Jaden, please stay!). I broke each player's season down into thirds to better look at their individual growth throughout the year. The image at the end has a screenshot of the table. I highlighted columns notable to me. A couple notes on each player below.

Carrington
  • About 75% of his shots were from three throughout the year.
  • 3P% steadily climbed throughout the year, shooting 45% from deep over his last 7 games.

Henley
  • Definitely gained confidence and found his shot throughout the year.
  • Went from 14 mpg / 2.7 ppg -> 28 mpg / 8.5 ppg from middle to end of year.
  • He shot 70% (!) from deep over his last 10 games.
  • Assists steadily increased over the year (0.8 -> 1.3 -> 1.9).
  • Solid FT shooter over his last 10 games at 71%.

JOJ
  • Very efficient throughout the year, shooting over 50% in each third.
  • 3P% got better each third (20% -> 33% -> 50%). He was always pretty selective from three, but he still attempted more threes as the season progressed.

Payne
  • His mpg were pretty steady each third, but you can see from his stats when the competition level increased with conference play starting in the middle third of the season.
  • Last third: 10.8 pts and 6.5 rebs per game is outstanding for a B1G freshmen post. Can't wait to see him with a year under his belt.
  • Improved to 55% from FT in last third of the year. Hopefully that trend continues.

Edit: caught formula typo and updated table screenshot.
freshmen v2.jpg
 
Last edited:

matt said:
Although disappointed with the season, I am excited to watch the growth of the four freshmen over the next couple years (Jaden, please stay!). I broke each player's season down into thirds to better look at their individual growth throughout the year. The image at the end has a screenshot of the table. I highlighted columns notable to me. A couple notes on each player below.

Carrington
  • About 75% of his shots were from three throughout the year.
  • 3P% steadily climbed throughout the year, shooting 45% from deep over his last 7 games.

Henley
  • Definitely gained confidence and found his shot throughout the year.
  • Went from 14 mpg / 2.7 ppg -> 28 mpg / 8.5 ppg from middle to end of year.
  • He shot 70% (!) from deep over his last 10 games.
  • Assists steadily increased over the year (0.8 -> 1.3 -> 1.9).
  • Solid FT shooter over his last 10 games at 73%.

JOJ
  • Very efficient throughout the year, shooting over 50% in each third.
  • 3P% got better each third (20% -> 33% -> 50%). He was always pretty selective from three, but he still attempted more threes as the season progressed.

Payne
  • His mpg were pretty steady each third, but you can see from his stats when the competition level increased with conference play starting in the middle third of the season.
  • Last third: 10.8 pts and 6.5 rebs per game is outstanding for a B1G freshmen post. Can't wait to see him with a year under his belt.
  • Improved to 55% from FT in last third of the year. Hopefully that trend continues.


View attachment 24514
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Thanks bud - excellent work
 

matt said:
Although disappointed with the season, I am excited to watch the growth of the four freshmen over the next couple years (Jaden, please stay!). I broke each player's season down into thirds to better look at their individual growth throughout the year. The image at the end has a screenshot of the table. I highlighted columns notable to me. A couple notes on each player below.

Carrington
  • About 75% of his shots were from three throughout the year.
  • 3P% steadily climbed throughout the year, shooting 45% from deep over his last 7 games.

Henley
  • Definitely gained confidence and found his shot throughout the year.
  • Went from 14 mpg / 2.7 ppg -> 28 mpg / 8.5 ppg from middle to end of year.
  • He shot 70% (!) from deep over his last 10 games.
  • Assists steadily increased over the year (0.8 -> 1.3 -> 1.9).
  • Solid FT shooter over his last 10 games at 73%.

JOJ
  • Very efficient throughout the year, shooting over 50% in each third.
  • 3P% got better each third (20% -> 33% -> 50%). He was always pretty selective from three, but he still attempted more threes as the season progressed.

Payne
  • His mpg were pretty steady each third, but you can see from his stats when the competition level increased with conference play starting in the middle third of the season.
  • Last third: 10.8 pts and 6.5 rebs per game is outstanding for a B1G freshmen post. Can't wait to see him with a year under his belt.
  • Improved to 55% from FT in last third of the year. Hopefully that trend continues.


View attachment 24514
Click to expand...
Great work!! Thanks! Interesting that the frosh contributed 33 points per game in that last third as compared to 21 points in the second third. Significant improvement. Have to give some credit to the coaching staff as well.
 


bga1 said:
Great work!! Thanks! Interesting that the frosh contributed 33 points per game in that last third as compared to 21 points in the second third. Significant improvement. Have to give some credit to the coaching staff as well.
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Yeah, it is interesting to see. One thing to note: the thirds of the season aren't the same for everyone. Carrington missed the first two games of the season and seven in Jan/Feb, so his last third is only the last 7 games while the last third for JOJ/Henley/Payne is the last 10 games. My goal was to see the progression for each player.
 


Ghos345 said:
From Marcus article in Trib today sounds like Henley is going to transfer, wonder if it’s to Louisville or closer to home.
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That would stink. Hopefully Ben can convince him to stay, but in this day and age with Evans bailing it wouldn’t be surprised. San Diego State also offered him out oh HS and are playing again in their conference championship.

Here’s the article for others who are interested -

m.startribune.com

Curious Minnesota - Minnesota Star Tribune

Curious Minnesota, a Minnesota Star Tribune community-driven reporting project, puts readers' inquiries at the center of our newsroom's reporting.
m.startribune.com m.startribune.com
 

Ghos345 said:
From Marcus article in Trib today sounds like Henley is going to transfer, wonder if it’s to Louisville or closer to home.
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“And signs point to Henley, a 6-7 California native, entering the transfer portal, as well. He played AAU basketball with former Gophers recruit Dennis Evans and was close to the five-star center. Evans was released from his letter of intent last month.”

Sounds a bit like the speculation we all have heard. I don’t know if that’s really “new” info he’s going off. I assumed Evans’ decommitment would lead to Henley leaving, but all the playing time and development he seemed to have late in the season gives me a bit of hope. We shall see.
 

Drake University Gopher said:
“And signs point to Henley, a 6-7 California native, entering the transfer portal, as well. He played AAU basketball with former Gophers recruit Dennis Evans and was close to the five-star center. Evans was released from his letter of intent last month.”

Sounds a bit like the speculation we all have heard. I don’t know if that’s really “new” info he’s going off. I assumed Evans’ decommitment would lead to Henley leaving, but all the playing time and development he seemed to have late in the season gives me a bit of hope. We shall see.
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Marcus is making shit up; as he often does. Henley may transfer but has given zero indication he will do so. The Strib keeps churning out donkey "journalists"
 

LesBolstad said:
Marcus is making shit up; as he often does. Henley may transfer but has given zero indication he will do so. The Strib keeps churning out donkey "journalists"
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Hopefully the freshman have developed some bonds with each other after playing together for a year that will keep them all here. In these days though, who knows. I wish we would go back to the days when players would have to sit a year if they transferred.
 



jblass said:
Hopefully the freshman have developed some bonds with each other after playing together for a year that will keep them all here. In these days though, who knows. I wish we would go back to the days when players would have to sit a year if they transferred.
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I despise this 100 percent free agency every year. At least in pro sports they have multi year contracts.
 


Bobek said:
And you have Insider information the beat writer can’t get access to as part of his job?
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"And signs point to Henley, a 6-7 California native, entering the transfer portal, as well. He played AAU basketball with former Gophers recruit Dennis Evans and was close to the five-star center. Evans was released from his letter of intent last month."-From the article.

What signs? Doesn't sound like the "beat writer" has insider information. He doesn't quote "a source". Total speculation. Not saying he is staying or going. My bet is Marcus Fuller is speculating just like the rest of us. BTW, I sure hope Henley stays.
 




Fuller would be speculating with more intel than our hoping Henley stays. He quotes Cooper, so it sure seems like he talked to him? I'm guessing he either hears things with his access or he knows things he is not disclosing out of respect.
 

matt said:
Although disappointed with the season, I am excited to watch the growth of the four freshmen over the next couple years (Jaden, please stay!). I broke each player's season down into thirds to better look at their individual growth throughout the year. The image at the end has a screenshot of the table. I highlighted columns notable to me. A couple notes on each player below.

Carrington
  • About 75% of his shots were from three throughout the year.
  • 3P% steadily climbed throughout the year, shooting 45% from deep over his last 7 games.

Henley
  • Definitely gained confidence and found his shot throughout the year.
  • Went from 14 mpg / 2.7 ppg -> 28 mpg / 8.5 ppg from middle to end of year.
  • He shot 70% (!) from deep over his last 10 games.
  • Assists steadily increased over the year (0.8 -> 1.3 -> 1.9).
  • Solid FT shooter over his last 10 games at 71%.

JOJ
  • Very efficient throughout the year, shooting over 50% in each third.
  • 3P% got better each third (20% -> 33% -> 50%). He was always pretty selective from three, but he still attempted more threes as the season progressed.

Payne
  • His mpg were pretty steady each third, but you can see from his stats when the competition level increased with conference play starting in the middle third of the season.
  • Last third: 10.8 pts and 6.5 rebs per game is outstanding for a B1G freshmen post. Can't wait to see him with a year under his belt.
  • Improved to 55% from FT in last third of the year. Hopefully that trend continues.

Edit: caught formula typo and updated table screenshot.
View attachment 24520
Click to expand...
Thanks great post
 

tikited said:
He's gone.
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Maybe. I have heard that most players think about transferring after that first year and that goes back to pre portal. If they haven't had the impact they thought they would or they get homesick, it leads to doubt.

The rumors on Henley started back when Evans recommitted. Henley has had a lot bigger role since then and has looked good....so maybe that's where things stood when Dennis left. Could things have changed for him? I hope that Henley has a good bond with teammates and coach and can be talked into staying the course. No doubt conversations are being held this week to talk to guys about the future. Henley has a great and clearly defined opportunity here and has made some nice strides with this staff.
 



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