Analysis of 2025 Coaching Changes - is there a problem?

[formerlybis]

I decided to make a new thread to avoid being lumped in with the noise in the "Hallman thread". I was interested in what actually happened this year with the new hires. I found a list of 44 D1 men's basketball coaching changes and looked them all up to see if they had been a D1 coach before, and whether they were African-American.

I previously found an article saying that 59% of P5 assistants are Black. For P5 schools, previous head coaching experience is often a hiring criterion, so there was a suggestion that we should look at the schools hiring first-time coaches and how many of those were Black.

I found that 21 of the 44 openings went to first-time coaches (only 3 of those were P5 jobs). Only 4 of those 21 first-timers are Black (19%), and only 9 of the 44 overall (20%). Only 2 of the black first timers were a P5 assistant this year (said another way, 90% of the jobs that were given to first-timers who were not part of the 59% of P5 assistants who are Black).

These are the numbers. I don't know why it is this way. I agree with hiring the most qualified candidate - I would think being a P5 assistant is a significant qualification.

	1st time coach	Black	Notes
Alcorn St.	x	x	Fla St asst
Clev St.	x	x	Mizzou asst
Longwood	x	x	promoted
Louisiana Lafayette	x	x	Houston asst
*Miami	x	x	Duke asst
Sacramento St	x	x	Mike Bibby - last coached HS in 2019
Alabama A&M		x
Bryant		x
Chicago St		x
Grambling		x
McNeese St		x
North Texas		x
Arkansas St	x
Bellarmine	x
Campbell	x
Central Mich	x
Colorado St	x
Columbia	x
Denver	x
*Florida St	x
Iona	x
La Salle	x
Lipscomb	x
Murray St	x
Navy	x
Oral Roberts	x
Radford	x
SoDak St	x		Coached at Jr college; won natl champ
St. Francis (PA)	x
Stephen F Austin	x
UCSD	x
*Utah	x
Drake
Fordham
*Indiana
*Iowa
Louisiana Monroe
*Maryland
*Minnesota
*NC St
New Mexico
Penn
Samford
South Florida
*TAMU
*Texas
UNLV
VCU
*Villanova
*Virginia
*West Virginia
*Xavier

* denotes P5 school

 

[Spaulding!No!]

Nice work! Let’s add a public/private field.

 

[Off-GridTNgopher]

There's only a problem if they don't win. Race has nothing to do with it

 

[formerlybis]

There's only a problem if they don't win. Race has nothing to do with it

If you accept that 1) being a P5 assistant is an important qualification for getting a head coach job in D1 and 2) 59% of P5 assistants are Black, then it should follow that somewhere close to that same percentage of first-time head coaches should be Black. It’s math. Race probably does matter.

 

[MNVCGUY]

If you accept that 1) being a P5 assistant is an important qualification for getting a head coach job in D1 and 2) 59% of P5 assistants are Black, then it should follow that somewhere close to that same percentage of first-time head coaches should be Black. It’s math. Race probably does matter.

Thanks for compiling the info....the 4 of 21 - 1st time head coaches is the biggest issue in my opinion. Ideally that number should be much closer to 50% to start making a dent in the disparity that exists.

But in saying that it gets tough....because schools should be free to hire whomever they think is the best fit for their job opening regardless of race. You just have to trust that race didn't factor into the decision making process.

 

[FritoPendejo]

This analysis might make the mistake of treating all assistant positions equally. In some cases there is an Associate HC, and even when there’s not and everyone is called an Assistant, there’s no way they’re all equal on the hierarchy and equal in seniority. And those junior/less responsibility guys might be candidates to move into a more senior position, but aren’t likely to be considered for HC gigs. It’s the Associate HCs and senior assistants that are. Just like in the NFL the main source of HCs is the coordinator pool, and NFL position coaches almost never go right to the big chair (Joe Judge did. Worked great!)

I think if you looked at P5 associate HC and more senior assistants the number would be well lower than 59% (I don’t buy that number anyway). But if I’m right, this just begs the question of why the lower ranks of assistants are filled with minorities and they are less likely to get senior jobs.

 

[Mikie S]

If you accept that 1) being a P5 assistant is an important qualification for getting a head coach job in D1 and 2) 59% of P5 assistants are Black, then it should follow that somewhere close to that same percentage of first-time head coaches should be Black. It’s math. Race probably does matter.

The Gophers have had a black coach 23 of the last 39 seasons. That comes out to 59%.

 

[FritoPendejo]

Holy shit, no wonder I didn’t buy 59%. I’m concerned about minority under-representation in the HC ranks too, but that’s some sloppy statistics-doing right there. Assume we averaged 5 assistants per year. If we had a black assistant on staff 23 times, all that tells is us that between 12 and 59% of our assistants were black and the answer is likely in between.

 

[formerlybis]

Here’s where I got the 59% of assistants are Black: Link

That article also suggests that Black assistants might be pigeonholed as recruiters for their primary role, and not viewed as X’s and O’s guys.

 

[formerlybis]

Thanks for compiling the info....the 4 of 21 - 1st time head coaches is the biggest issue in my opinion. Ideally that number should be much closer to 50% to start making a dent in the disparity that exists.

But in saying that it gets tough....because schools should be free to hire whomever they think is the best fit for their job opening regardless of race. You just have to trust that race didn't factor into the decision making process.

I bolded the trust part - I'm willing to buy that ADs believe with every fiber of their being that race plays no factor in their decision. I don't believe there is open and conscious bias. However, the numbers are what the numbers are - qualified Black assistant coaches don't get opportunities in proportion to their numbers. It's hard to deny that the results are biased - whose fault that is and how to change it? I just don't have answers, but it seems like something more than trusting those in charge is necessary.

 

[MNVCGUY]

I bolded the trust part - I'm willing to buy that ADs believe with every fiber of their being that race plays no factor in their decision. I don't believe there is open and conscious bias. However, the numbers are what the numbers are - qualified Black assistant coaches don't get opportunities in proportion to their numbers. It's hard to deny that the results are biased - whose fault that is and how to change it? I just don't have answers, but it seems like something more than trusting those in charge is necessary.

I agree. Problem is the only way you change it for sure is by forcing teams to hire minority candidates but that puts the team and the coach in a bad spot right off the bat, especially if the coach struggles to win quickly.

There definitely is an issue but solving it is extremely complex and way above my pay grade.

 

[Spottedmuskie]

Mike Bibby is black?

 

[formerlybis]

Mike Bibby is black?

Yes. His dad is Henry Bibby who was the PG for the 76ers' teams with Dr. J.

 

[FinnGopher]

Yes. His dad is Henry Bibby who was the PG for the 76ers' teams with Dr. J.

That Sixers team was fantastic. Andrew Tony, aka the Boston Strangler, along with Chocolate Thunder. Bibby keeping everything in flow. What a team.

 

[Spaulding!No!]

The assumption that American universities are paragons of equality is simply not true.

 

[Outsider]

That Sixers team was fantastic. Andrew Tony, aka the Boston Strangler, along with Chocolate Thunder. Bibby keeping everything in flow. What a team.

Mo Cheeks says hello

 

[FinnGopher]

Mo Cheeks says hello

Thanks for adding Mo. How could I have forgotten to mention him.

 

[Outsider]

Thanks for adding Mo. How could I have forgotten to mention him.

Unfortunately Henry was gone after the 80 season and Mo was the man for the champ season in ‘83.

 

[Minnesconsin fan]

Thanks for adding Mo. How could I have forgotten to mention him.

I always liked Sedale Threatt - 6th round draft pick that made a pretty stacked team.

 

[formerlybis]

I've updated the list with 8 new hires - of the 5 first-timers, 2 are black coaches (added Alcorn St. and Clev. St.). The updated tally is 6 of the 26 first timers are black (23%).

There is also one more non-first-timer black coach (at Grambling). Overall, 12 of the 52 new coaches are black, which is exactly the same percentage, 23%.

As far as I can tell, there is now just one opening left - UC Riverside.

 

[FinnGopher]

I've updated the list with 8 new hires - of the 5 first-timers, 2 are black coaches (added Alcorn St. and Clev. St.). The updated tally is 6 of the 26 first timers are black (23%).

There is also one more non-first-timer black coach (at Grambling). Overall, 12 of the 52 new coaches are black, which is exactly the same percentage, 23%.

As far as I can tell, there is now just one opening left - UC Riverside.

I can hardly wait until we get the first maroon coach. Basketball runs deep in the indigenous community. Why are their no Dakota or Ojibwe head coaches?
With the Filipino love of basketball, where are the Filipino head coaches? What's the deal?

 

[formerlybis]

I can hardly wait until we get the first maroon coach. Basketball runs deep in the indigenous community. Why are their no Dakota or Ojibwe head coaches?
With the Filipino love of basketball, where are the Filipino head coaches? What's the deal?

You keep on opening your mouth and removing all doubt,

FWIW, there are a couple of Asian coaches that were hired in this cycle (and btw, the aforementioned Mike Bibby has a Filipino mother). I specifically only counted Black coaches (and not the broader category of non-white) because Black is the majority race of college basketball players.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

Thanks for compiling the info....the 4 of 21 - 1st time head coaches is the biggest issue in my opinion. Ideally that number should be much closer to 50% to start making a dent in the disparity that exists.

But in saying that it gets tough....because schools should be free to hire whomever they think is the best fit for their job opening regardless of race. You just have to trust that race didn't factor into the decision making process.

Why would it be closer to 50%? African Americans make up around 15% of the population. Why aren't people talking about how they are disproportionately receiving positions as assistant coaches (over 300% greater rate than their national average)?

The difficulty in discussing race when it comes to hiring is that it starts getting really ugly and dark when you begin to discuss the negative portions of it. Look at the record of the African American coaches who got canned this year - it was awful.

 

[FinnGopher]

You keep on opening your mouth and removing all doubt,

FWIW, there are a couple of Asian coaches that were hired in this cycle (and btw, the aforementioned Mike Bibby has a Filipino mother). I specifically only counted Black coaches (and not the broader category of non-white) because Black is the majority race of college basketball players.

Black is a skin color, not a race. White is a skin color, not a race. There is no correlation between coaching/playing and race. It's a false construct created by bigots.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

I've updated the list with 8 new hires - of the 5 first-timers, 2 are black coaches (added Alcorn St. and Clev. St.). The updated tally is 6 of the 26 first timers are black (23%).

There is also one more non-first-timer black coach (at Grambling). Overall, 12 of the 52 new coaches are black, which is exactly the same percentage, 23%.

As far as I can tell, there is now just one opening left - UC Riverside.

That is over 50% higher than the number of African Americans in the country.

A problem with a lot of these equity conversations is that people shift the denominator. When it helps the argument, they divide the number of impacted group of people by the percentage of people in the country. When they want the numbers to look another way, you divide the number by whatever sliver of the population helps you make your argument.

Most of the people only comparing the number of coaches to the "player pool" in D1 are doing it because they want to get to their conclusion. Here is a list of coaches off the top of my head who did not play D1 basketball - Brad Stevens, Erik Spoelstra, Roy Williams, Kelvin Sampson, Scott Drew, Bruce Pearl, Geno Auriemma, Mark Few, Mick Cronin, Nate Oats, Dusty May, Chris Beard. . .

 

[Spaulding!No!]

That is over 50% higher than the number of African Americans in the country.

A problem with a lot of these equity conversations is that people shift the denominator. When it helps the argument, they divide the number of impacted group of people by the percentage of people in the country. When they want the numbers to look another way, you divide the number by whatever sliver of the population helps you make your argument.

Most of the people only comparing the number of coaches to the "player pool" in D1 are doing it because they want to get to their conclusion. Here is a list of coaches off the top of my head who did not play D1 basketball - Brad Stevens, Erik Spoelstra, Roy Williams, Kelvin Sampson, Scott Drew, Bruce Pearl, Geno Auriemma, Mark Few, Mick Cronin, Nate Oats, Dusty May, Chris Beard. . .

We were so close to recognizing Mark Few.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Why would it be closer to 50%? African Americans make up around 15% of the population. Why aren't people talking about how they are disproportionately receiving positions as assistant coaches (over 300% greater rate than their national average)?

The difficulty in discussing race when it comes to hiring is that it starts getting really ugly and dark when you begin to discuss the negative portions of it. Look at the record of the African American coaches who got canned this year - it was awful.

Agree 100% that is is a messy topic but not sure general population numbers are the way to go when talking about a sport where nearly 60% of the player pool identifies as Black or African-American. The assistant coaching pool resembles a similar ratio to the players. Head coaching pool does not.

Now.....how you fix that or if it even needs to be fixed is well beyond anything I can bring to the table.

 

[formerlybis]

I continue to be curious about this, so I looked up what percentage of ADs are black. According to one source that appears to be from the NCAA itself, it’s 13% in D1.

 

[Bob_Loblaw]

Agree 100% that is is a messy topic but not sure general population numbers are the way to go when talking about a sport where nearly 60% of the player pool identifies as Black or African-American. The assistant coaching pool resembles a similar ratio to the players. Head coaching pool does not.

Now.....how you fix that or if it even needs to be fixed is well beyond anything I can bring to the table.

Why would you go the player pool? There are tons of great coaches who were not D1 athletes.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Why would you go the player pool? There are tons of great coaches who were not D1 athletes.

Fair....the total pool should probably be expanded to all levels of college basketball as opposed to just D1. I know there are some coaches who never played at any level but most coaches played at some level in college even if it wasn't D1.