Analysis: More Than a Number: Minnesota's 2-Point Field Goal Shooting

[GopherHole Staff]

More Than a Number: Minnesota's 2-Point Field Goal Shooting
Gophers' Shooting Has Room to Improve

Offensive rebounding has been of great importance to the Gophers’ offense, but as their advantage on the glass wanes during the Big Ten schedule, it will be field goal shooting that matters most.

By J.B. Bauer

Minnesota’s offense has been good enough this season to rank #14 in the nation according to KenPom.com. With a top-20 ranked defense, numerous rankings and polls generated by both computers and humans hold the Gophers in high regard. Most say that Minnesota is around the #10 team in college basketball.

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/207761?referrer_id=331171

Offensive rebounding has been of great importance to the Gophers’ offense, but as Minnesota’s advantage on the glass wanes during the Big Ten schedule, it will be field goal shooting that matters most. Without improvement in the team’s effective field goal percentage, their profile will likely take on an appearance of a team that should finish the regular season around #20.

Finishing in the top 25 and a earning an invitation to the NCAA tournament would be good, but expectations are higher.

There are many angles from which Minnesota’s field goal shooting can be viewed and today we’ll just a few of them.

Minnesota’s nonconference field-goal shooting for this season and 2011-12 is summarized below. The data includes all games other than the 18 scheduled Big Ten games.

For charts, and much deeper analysis click below:

http://www.gopherhole.com/news_article/show/207761?referrer_id=331171

 

[brucekaupa]

...but as Minnesota’s advantage on the glass wanes during the Big Ten schedule

Big assumption there. Hmmm...let's look at the Michigan State game:

- 23 FGs missed
- 13 offensive rebounds
- 57% of misses rebounded

That's not waning...that's waxing.

I'd be curious as to when exactly this "waning" is supposed to start.

 

[Gopher Warrior]

Big assumption there. Hmmm...let's look at the Michigan State game:

- 23 FGs missed
- 13 offensive rebounds
- 57% of misses rebounded

That's not waning...that's waxing.

I'd be curious as to when exactly this "waning" is supposed to start.

Minnesota did very well against Michigan State; however, the Gophers' offensive rebounding in that game was below their season average. (The calculation would be 14/30 = 46.7%, based on 14 offensive rebounds for Minnesota and 16 defensive rebounds for Michigan State.)

So, the waning has already begun.

I'd hesitate to even call it an assumption - if I could, I'd bet $100,000 on it.

 

[brucekaupa]

Interesting...

Michigan State missed 35 shots. They had 10 offensive rebounds and we had 25 defensive rebounds. That adds up.

Gophers missed 23 shots. We had 13 offensive rebounds and they have 14 defensive rebounds. That does not add up.

Explain that.

 

[brucekaupa]

Ah...must be missed free throws. But then that really throws it off.

 

[Gopher Warrior]

Ah...must be missed free throws. But then that really throws it off.

I'll try to help you out on this one... can get a little bit tricky depending on what you're looking at.

Free throws are a big piece, but other things to consider are team rebounds and dead -ball rebounds.

Team rebounds are generally included in team rebounding percentages, but dead-ball rebounds are not. An example of a dead-ball rebound would be... let's say a player shoots and the ball hits the rim, bounces up and over the backboard, hitting the shot clock equipment, etc... dead-ball rebound.

So... in the Minnesota, Michigan State example.. to reconcile:

Gophers: 23 missed FG, 9 missed FT = 32.
MN OR 14 + MSU DR 16 + Dead-ball Reb 2 = 32.
Note that MN's 14 and MSU's 16 include 1 and 2 team rebounds, respectively.

MSU: 35 missed FG, 8 missed FT = 43.
MN DR 25 + MSU OR 16 + 2 Dead-ball = 43.

 

[brucekaupa]

Out of curiosity, where are you seeing a box score that breaks down whether team rebounds are offensive or defensive?

ESPN doesn't even list team or dead rebounds at all. "covers.com" shows total team rebounds, but not whether they are off or def. Arg.

 

[Gopher Warrior]

Out of curiosity, where are you seeing a box score that breaks down whether team rebounds are offensive or defensive?

ESPN doesn't even list team or dead rebounds at all. "covers.com" shows total team rebounds, but not whether they are off or def. Arg.

I most often use NCAA.com. In this view, dead-ball rebounds aren't listed but you can calculate and confirm via the play-by-play data.

 

[scools12]

Minnesota did very well against Michigan State; however, the Gophers' offensive rebounding in that game was below their season average. (The calculation would be 14/30 = 46.7%, based on 14 offensive rebounds for Minnesota and 16 defensive rebounds for Michigan State.)

So, the waning has already begun.

I'd hesitate to even call it an assumption - if I could, I'd bet $100,000 on it.

I would take that bet since I can go to the box score on TeamRankings that indicates the numbers would be 13 offensive rebounds for Minnesota and 14 defensive rebounds for Michigan St for an OR% of 48.1.

Which according to those numbers there is no waning.

Anyone can use whatever site to get the numbers they want to prove their point.

 

[Gopher Warrior]

I would take that bet since I can go to the box score on TeamRankings that indicates the numbers would be 13 offensive rebounds for Minnesota and 14 defensive rebounds for Michigan St for an OR% of 48.1.

Which according to those numbers there is no waning.

Anyone can use whatever site to get the numbers they want to prove their point.

There is only one official box score.

BTW, 48.1% (which excludes team rebounds) is also lower than Minnesota's season average, so there is waning.

I'm up for a bet - PM if you truly are.

 

[scools12]

There is only one official box score.

BTW, 48.1% (which excludes team rebounds) is also lower than Minnesota's season average, so there is waning.

I'm up for a bet - PM if you truly are.

Again using TeamRankings their season OR% is 47.9 which they were higher than in the Michigan St game according to that sites box score.

The point still being anyone can use whatever site to make their point.

 

[matt]

I'd hesitate to even call it an assumption - if I could, I'd bet $100,000 on it.

So you're 98% sure about it?

 

[SelectionSunday]

The Gophers scored 76 points.

The Spartans scored 63 points.

In a taut, n*t-crunching game, the Gophers outscored Sparty (a team that has outclassed 'em down the stretch in recent meetings) 12-0 after the final TV time out. Those are the numbers/things I value the most.

 

[brucekaupa]

I'm with GW on this one.

Think about the possible outcomes for a shot we take:
- FG or FT is missed and we grab the rebound: Offensive rebound credited to a player
- FG or FT is missed, touched by other team and bounces out of bounds: Offensive rebound credited to team
- FG or FT is missed and other team grabs rebound: Defensive rebound credited to a player
- FG or FT is missed, touched by us and goes out of bounds: Defensive rebound credited to team
- FG or FT is missed and ball bounces up and hits shot clock or goes over backboard without a player touching it: Dead ball rebound for defense
- Live FT doesn't hit rim: Dead ball rebound for defense

 

[Gopher Warrior]

The point still being anyone can use whatever site to make their point.

You're right. Anyone can use invalid data to make an invalid point.

Or, they can use the official data and make a valid point.

To clarify: Minnesota won't keep their OR% at 49% because NO ONE does it. Most seasons the high OR% in all of college basketball is 42-43%. A few years ago a mid major got up to 45%. The Gophers will still be very impressive on the glass - it's just that what they've done so far this year is off the charts. I'm talking about a step down from unrealistically incredible to just 'excellent'.

 

[9194Gophs]

Staff... OH UH


Great to see a non-gopher fan who loves to discredit them every chance it gets is back.

 

[dpodoll68]

Great to see a non-gopher fan who loves to discredit them every chance it gets is back.

+1. I was waiting for someone else to say it. I had hoped (clearly in vain) that he was done as a "contributor" on this site.

 

[underground629]

Obviously some people find his analysis interesting or he wouldn't be a contributor. It's not hard to simply not click a thread such as this if you don't care for the material.

 

[HOOP DREAMS]

Obviously some people find his analysis interesting or he wouldn't be a contributor.

Obviously. Because after he got the boot from GH and started Late Night Hoops in mid-October (still on his Mbakwe crusade) and tweeted every reporter from ESPN to local scabs Jesse has racked up an AMAZING 36 twitter followers.

 

[underground629]

That's for his blog. How many followers does he have on his other twitter? You sure he got the boot? They booted him and then let him contribute? Makes sense. And yes, obviously people are still interested enough to read his material or else this thread wouldn't have views. Everything you said in your response has nothing to do with what you quoted me on...

Obviously. Because after he got the boot from GH and started Late Night Hoops in mid-October (still on his Mbakwe crusade) and tweeted every reporter from ESPN to local scabs Jesse has racked up an AMAZING 36 twitter followers.

 

[Mulligan]

And yes, obviously people are still interested enough to read his material or else this thread wouldn't have views. Everything you said in your response has nothing to do with what you quoted me on...

I read him to see what sort of a sh*tstorm will start up and to marvel at the smugness. SS's analysis of the Michigan State game is a lot more spot on. Only statistic I really remember that GW gave me is 2%.

 

[HOOP DREAMS]

How many followers does he have on his other twitter?

Not many at all, especially for all the tweets.

You sure he got the boot? They booted him and then let him contribute?

Apparently you are staff or an insider so why not just answer. So he attacks Mbakwe (again), people call for his head - he starts his own blog the next day & stops contributing for 3 months?

obviously people are still interested enough to read his material or else this thread wouldn't have views.

Thread views, why it said from GH Staff, if it said from Jesse Bauer it would not have the views.

Everything you said in your response has nothing to do with what you quoted me on...

False. People are not interested in his opinions/content.

Half the responses in his threads are typically from his other monikers, reinforcing his opinion.

 

[underground629]

Zero facts

Not many at all, especially for all the tweets.



Apparently you are staff or an insider so why not just answer. So he attacks Mbakwe (again), people call for his head - he starts his own blog the next day & stops contributing for 3 months?



Thread views, why it said from GH Staff, if it said from Jesse Bauer it would not have the views.



False. People are not interested in his opinions/content.

Half the responses in his threads are typically from his other monikers, reinforcing his opinion.

 

[rivergopher]

How is Gopherwarrior going to spin this one into ripping the gophers for dominating the glass again?

 

[brucekaupa]

Waxing.

 

[rivergopher]

Agreed

 

[brucekaupa]

Wax on.

Even for the Gophers, their offensive rebounding performance was quite impressive tonight. Minnesota grabbed 21 of its 25 misses. Let that sink in. That’s 84 percent. It was by far their best performance of the year in that regard. The national median is 30.4. - A. Rayno. 1/6/2012

 

[Gopher Warrior]

Wax on.

Even for the Gophers, their offensive rebounding performance was quite impressive tonight. Minnesota grabbed 21 of its 25 misses. Let that sink in. That’s 84 percent. It was by far their best performance of the year in that regard. The national median is 30.4. - A. Rayno. 1/6/2012

Awesome job on the o-boards again last night. Next few games: can do well with second chances against Illinois, but Indiana & Michigan have both been good at limiting opponents.

National avg each year runs 32-33%. Gophers rebounded less than 64% last night - their best all season. (But certainly nowhere near 84%.)