Amelia Rayno blog: Gophers' "arsenal" stacks up favorably in Big Ten

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Bad Gopher said:
This team ought to have high aspirations, higher than just making the Tournament. They can't be limited by the notion that, since IU, MI, MSU and OSU are in the league, the best they can hope for is fighting with WI for 5th place.

The major factor for next year is how mentally tough the team turns out to be. Can they finish games against the good teams (and against the lesser teams, for all that matters)? Do they believe they belong with the teams competing for a conference title? Do they play well or lay an egg if they find themselves in a big game in the closing weeks of the schedule?
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Sure they can !!! Surely, we cant have any expectations higher than 5th!

More excuses from the faithful here at gh.

Minimum of 12 conference wins should be expected from this group, and a deep run in the ncaa. Anything less is failure.
 

BarnBurner said:
Sure they can !!! Surely, we cant have any expectations higher than 5th!

Minimum of 12 conference wins should be expected from this group, and a deep run in the ncaa. Anything less is failure.
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"Minimum"? 12-6 in that conference might very well mean a national ranking near the top 10. So that would be pretty d*mn good. I agree that this team should set its sights high though. Two seniors that probably will be NBA first round picks. Going into the season they need to have the MENTALITY that they're a conference title contender.
 

EG#9 said:
Problem with projecting records is the Gophers have lost as favorites far more often than they have won as underdogs the past two years.
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This doesn't mean crap. Kentucky can say the same thing, you better go tell them about their problem.

EG#9 said:
I believe the Gophers only won one game before the BTT that they were not favored in (at Indiana).
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Why do you exclude the tournament? Just because it's more convenient for your argument?
 


SelectionSunday said:
One thing I'm totally on board with (GW mentioned this earlier) is the "en masse" substitutions have to stop. I just don't get it. You can get your studs plenty of rest without taking 'em all out at the same time. Mix and match the starters with the guys coming off the bench.

Except for the rare occasions when a starting lineup is completely sleepwalking, the 5-for-5 stuff was nonsense when Monson did it, and it's nonsense now when Tubby does it. Sure, it'll work on occasion, but more often than we'll get burned if we do it vs. a quality opponent.
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In the B10 tourney and NIT Rodney played 41,38,40,23 (blowout win against Miami),36,40,26 (blowout loss to Stanford). So in the games that weren't blowouts he averaged 39 of a possible 42.2 minutes

In those same games Dre averaged 36.4 of a possible 42.2 minutes (including only 22 against LaSalle when in foul trouble).

I think Tubby is getting that when he has far superior players they need to stay on the court
 

SelectionSunday said:
One thing I'm totally on board with (GW mentioned this earlier) is the "en masse" substitutions have to stop. I just don't get it. You can get your studs plenty of rest without taking 'em all out at the same time. Mix and match the starters with the guys coming off the bench.

Except for the rare occasions when a starting lineup is completely sleepwalking, the 5-for-5 stuff was nonsense when Monson did it, and it's nonsense now when Tubby does it. Sure, it'll work on occasion, but more often than we'll get burned if we do it vs. a quality opponent.
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To even compare the 5 for 5 between tubby and monson is disingenuous, at best. tubby routinely does it, monson did not.
 


The shortening of the bench at the end of the year was due more to lack of bodies than anything else. With Oto, Mbakwe, and Walker out with injuries, there was far less depth. If I had to put money on it, I'd say Tubby goes back to 5 for 5 or 4 for 4 subbing. Thankfully we will be tested early in the non-conference to figure out whether they have the talent depth to make it work or not.
 



WanderingGopher said:
"Minimum"? 12-6 in that conference might very well mean a national ranking near the top 10. So that would be pretty d*mn good. I agree that this team should set its sights high though. Two seniors that probably will be NBA first round picks. Going into the season they need to have the MENTALITY that they're a conference title contender.
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And you dont expect the team to be ranked near or at top 10? With the returning roster?

It may never be better than this coming year, in terms of roster.
 

BarnBurner said:
And you dont expect the team to be ranked near or at top 10? With the returning roster?

It may never be better than this coming year, in terms of roster.
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Gophers need to run the table and win the title with no losses or Tubby should be fired.

There is no reason Minnesota shouldn't have higher expectations than Duke.
 

BarnBurner said:
And you dont expect the team to be ranked near or at top 10? With the returning roster?

It may never be better than this coming year, in terms of roster.
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According to at least one poll, there are already four Big Ten teams in the top 10. I'm starting to wonder by the time conference play comes around, if there will be enough wins to go around to keep all those teams ranked that high. When Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, and Indiana play each other, someone is going to have to lose, and I'm betting it won't be Indiana, at home at least. If we were in another conference, being in the top 10 might be easier, for instance the SEC, where Kentucky would likely be the only team that is surely better than us, and we'd be on about the same level as Florida and Missouri.

I think we have the ability to beat Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State this year (though we only play Ohio State in Columbus this year, but last time we played there we only lost by 3, so a win is possible), but right now I'd say they are more talented teams. We do have an advantage of sorts over Michigan and Indiana in that our top guys seem to be older and more experienced than the primarily underclassmen talent that those two teams will be counting on. They will be relying on freshmen studs in McGary, Robinson III, Ferrel, Perea, and whatever other top 50 talent Indiana is bringing in this year. Actually Indiana still has Watford, Oladipo, and possibly Roth, so yeah, Indiana is better than we are this year. And no, I'm not forgetting about Hardaway, Burke, and Zeller.

Also, to the poster who said this team has a ceiling of 10 conference wins, assuming we lose every game to the teams ranked ahead of us, which would include home losses to Michigan, Michigan State, and Indiana, and win every game against teams that are projected to be worse than us, which includes road wins at Iowa, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, and Nebraska, and we split with Wisconsin, that would put us at 11-7. If we assume we go 1-2 against Michigan, Michigan State, and Indiana at home, and 3-2 against Iowa, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, and Nebraska on the road, that puts us at 10-8.

That seems like a fairly likely, if perhaps slightly disappointing, result, but calling that the ceiling, as in if everything goes our way, we can get 10 wins, seems like underselling the team a bit. I'd say the ceiling is 15 wins, if we go 2-1 against Michigan, Michigan State, and Indiana at home, sweep Wisconsin, lose to nobody that is worse than us, even on the road, and pick up a road win against Michigan State, Indiana, or Ohio State. That's 15-3, with 2 of the three losses likely being to Indiana, and the other one @Michigan State. Again, this is if everything goes our way, we bring our A game against the top teams and never slip up against the bottom ones, and no one gets injured, which, going by the last two seasons, is a pipe dream.

I'd say most likely, we end up with between 10 and 12 conference wins, maybe 13.
 

Gold Vision said:
The shortening of the bench at the end of the year was due more to lack of bodies than anything else. With Oto, Mbakwe, and Walker out with injuries, there was far less depth. If I had to put money on it, I'd say Tubby goes back to 5 for 5 or 4 for 4 subbing. Thankfully we will be tested early in the non-conference to figure out whether they have the talent depth to make it work or not.
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And hopefully Tubby sees how well it worked. Playing Mav for 15 mns literally gives us nothing. All it does is make opposing coaches happy that we have a pg that can't penetrate or shoot on the floor. I think Tubby feels loyalty to these guys which is fine but our best players need to be on the court. Trevor, Williams, and Dre should all play 34 + minutes next year.
 



BarnBurner said:
And you dont expect the team to be ranked near or at top 10? With the returning roster?

It may never be better than this coming year, in terms of roster.
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We're a top 10 type of team if If IF we get the good versions of Dre, Rodney and Mbakwe throughout the season. IF Dre keeps up his play from the end of last year and keeps getting better and stays aggressive. IF Rodney keeps being aggressive and continues to improve that outside game. IF Mbakwe is back to form. if (lesser if) Walker gives us good minutes off the bench. If those things happen we can make a serious run at the B10 title. Our problem is that we don't have exceptional talent elsewhere. Right now we have 1 guard that worries opponents and 2 that have shown flashes but have also completely disappeared at times
 

scher215 said:
Gophers need to run the table and win the title with no losses or Tubby should be fired.

There is no reason Minnesota shouldn't have higher expectations than Duke.
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For scher, you scher cant get behind your team, tubster's team? After 1/2 a decade? Rodney, Trev, - loaded roster of upper classmen?

More excuses.....
 

mattw1067 said:
This doesn't mean crap. Kentucky can say the same thing, you better go tell them about their problem.



Why do you exclude the tournament? Just because it's more convenient for your argument?
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I apologize in advance if your post was meant to be sarcastic. The Gophers lost as Big Ten favorites 4 times last year and won as underdogs just once. To say that doesn't mean crap (and compare them to Kentucky who is favored in every game) seems too ridiculous to even comment on. If the Gophers simply won when they were supposed to and lost when they were supposed to, they would have been 9-9 in the conference and in the NCAA tournament.

I didn't include the BTT (win against Northwestern in first/opening/play-in game was a win as an underdog) because it wasn't relevant to the Gophers NCAA chances. At that point the Gophers needed to win the tournament because their resume (which I focused on) was so poor. That resume would have been good enough to get in to the dance if they had simply taken care of business (especially at home where they lost 3 times as favorites and did not score an upset win) in games they were "supposed" to win.
 

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