Amelia Rayno blog: Gophers' "arsenal" stacks up favorably in Big Ten

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Agree completely with Amelia. There's no reason not to be optimistic about next season. This team has solid talent and has a chance to be pretty good, and dare I say a roster that has at least 2 guys that'll spend time on a NBA roster (Mbakwe & Williams)? I'm glad the Gophers are playing nothing but studly teams in the Bahamas. ... this experienced core group should be able to handle a heavier workload.

Barring major injuries, off-court issues, etc., there's no reason this Gopher team should be farting around the .500 mark (or lower) in the Big Ten. I'm setting the bar at the 11-7/12-6 mark, which would be a darn good number considering how tough the B1G's likely to be. But as we all know, much easier said than done.
 

Totally ignores some key factors in play next year. I think anyone who has Minnesota pegged for higher than 6th place at this point in time is off in their thinking.

There is upside & the Gophers should finish better than their previous 9/10 performances, but... don't overlook Iowa & Northwestern or forget about Illinois & Purdue (even Penn St. can win some games).
 

Gopher Warrior said:
Totally ignores some key factors in play next year. I think anyone who has Minnesota pegged for higher than 6th place at this point in time is off in their thinking.

There is upside & the Gophers should finish better than their previous 9/10 performances, but... don't overlook Iowa & Northwestern or forget about Illinois & Purdue (even Penn St. can win some games).
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Yes, those teams can win some games but if they win some games against us then we can consider this season a failure. This team should finish no worse than 11 wins.
 

afurry91 said:
Yes, those teams can win some games but if they win some games against us then we can consider this season a failure.
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So if we lose twice to Penn St., and go 16-2 while winning the conference, this season is a failure?
 


I like our starting 4 - Trevor, Rodney, and the Hollins -- add a 5th starter from Eliot to Joe or even Julian on occasion. Mo could work into the 5th spot too. Then add good players off the bench - Oto and Ellingson (sp?) and next year looks great barring injuries to Dre, Trevor or Rodney!
 

There is no excuse this up coming year. Gophers are deep enough even to handle an injury or two and still dance
 

Gopher Warrior said:
Totally ignores some key factors in play next year. I think anyone who has Minnesota pegged for higher than 6th place at this point in time is off in their thinking.
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I don't know what "key factors" you're referring to, other than the usual -- injuries, unexpected ineligibilities, etc. I think we're due for a break in that area, don't you?

And 6th place? Well, I don't know about that, but many experts (and I) consider 4 of the likely top 10 teams in the country to be from the Big Ten (IN, MI, MSU, OSU). If that holds, "sixth place" doesn't look so bad ... basically it leaves Minnesota and probably Wisconsin to battle for 5th and 6th. We're better on paper, but even if we finish "sixth" that still is probably a top-25 finish and doesn't preclude a run in the NCAA's. If we finish behind anyone besides those 5 teams, and don't make a deep tourney run, I would call the season a failure.


http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bas...-lead-revised-top-25-plenty-changes-elsewhere.
 

Should be a fun year with plenty of talent to be competitive at home. We have to take advantage of the senior forwards, hopefully that means a shorter bench. Improved ball security is key.
 




book said:
I like our starting 4 - Trevor, Rodney, and the Hollins -- add a 5th starter from Eliot to Joe or even Julian on occasion. Mo could work into the 5th spot too. Then add good players off the bench - Oto and Ellingson (sp?) and next year looks great barring injuries to Dre, Trevor or Rodney!
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I agree.... and don't forget how GOOD that big Mo looked immediately prior to his injury...
 

Gold Vision said:
Should be a fun year with plenty of talent to be competitive at home. We have to take advantage of the senior forwards, hopefully that means a shorter bench. Improved ball security is key.
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Completely agree - these are key factors. Use of Rodney with Trevor, use of bench (needs to be reduced and four or five subs should not hop up and hit the floor together within the first six to eight minutes of the game), can't continue to get killed on turnover margin.

Could be a very successful year (door is open for a fourth place finish), but smart coaching will be needed.
 

We only Penn State once lol,but seriously I see this team beating Penn State and scUM at home and losing to Purdue and Ohio State on the road, I think we will sweep Nebraska, Illinois and Iowa, I think Indiana will sweep us and I think we will split with Sparty, Wisconsin and Northwestern, it probably won't play out that way, but that would put us at 11-7, probably tied for 5th with wisco and I would be fine with that.
 



dpodoll68 said:
So if we lose twice to Penn St., and go 16-2 while winning the conference, this season is a failure?
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Considering we only play Penn State once, and it's at home, losing to Penn State twice would be a very bad sign. :) I think I could live with 16 wins in conference though.

I do, however, think that saying a loss to any of Iowa, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, or Penn State, or for that matter Nebraska, who could be even worse than Penn State, makes the season a failure is excessive. Assuming we are the 6th best team in the conference right now, you're (not you dpo) basically saying that an upset loss in conference means the season is a failure, neglecting the possibility that we could make up for it by getting an upset victory against Indiana or Michigan or something. Michigan lost to Iowa this year, Michigan State lost to Northwestern and Illinois, Ohio State lost to Illinois, their seasons still turned out pretty darn well, except for maybe Michigan with their first round tourney loss to a 13 seed, but a 13 seed that made the Sweet Sixteen, I could probably take a first round tourney loss if it meant a Big Ten title.

Point is, losing to a team that's worse than us is not the end of the world, though it would be hard to tell by coming to this board within the first few hours after such a loss. Iowa and Purdue will not be bad teams next year, Northwestern and Illinois could potentially be decent as well. Nebraska and Penn State will likely be the only truly bad teams next season, and potentially Illinois and Northwestern.

As for my own take, I have the Gophers at 5th next year based purely on talent level. I think Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan, and Ohio State have more talent than we do, and one could make a good argument for Wisconsin as well, but I don't see any teams as being really unbeatable other than Indiana. Maybe we'll beat Michigan this year now that they don't have Smotrycz to do nothing until hitting a clutch three when the game was pretty much ours. :)
 

Problem with projecting records is the Gophers have lost as favorites far more often than they have won as underdogs the past two years. I believe the Gophers only won one game before the BTT that they were not favored in (at Indiana). As for the team itself, I am most concerned with the lack of a reliable option at the point beyond 'Dre (and I realize that the stats don't even show 'Dre as reliable). I am also curious to see how Trevor and Rodney work together on the floor as the possibility exists that we'll see a regression from Rodney if he's on the wing. I completely agree with Gopher Warrior that we can't see 4 or 5 subs entering the game at the same time in 2012-2013 unless we're in garbage time. Trevor, Rodney, Austin, and 'Dre need to be playing big minutes.
 


EG#9 said:
Problem with projecting records is the Gophers have lost as favorites far more often than they have won as underdogs the past two years. I believe the Gophers only won one game before the BTT that they were not favored in (at Indiana).
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That sounds about right unfortunately, and I was also unhappy about the upset wins : upset losses ratio. But in 2010-11 I have to imagine we weren't favored against North Carolina, not sure about West Virginia, beat a top 10 Purdue team at home, and beat Michigan on the road (though at the time they were probably underrated and we were overrated a few days after losing Joseph, and losing Nolen partway through). We do get a good few upset wins, though definitely not this year, and they do generally seem to be outnumbered by upset losses.
EG#9 said:
As for the team itself, I am most concerned with the lack of a reliable option at the point beyond 'Dre (and I realize that the stats don't even show 'Dre as reliable). I am also curious to see how Trevor and Rodney work together on the floor as the possibility exists that we'll see a regression from Rodney if he's on the wing. I completely agree with Gopher Warrior that we can't see 4 or 5 subs entering the game at the same time in 2012-2013 unless we're in garbage time. Trevor, Rodney, Austin, and 'Dre need to be playing big minutes.
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I think Welch is a reliable back-up PG for Dre, though I've been picturing in my mind a nice small 3 guard lineup with Trevor at the 5, Rodney at 4, and Welch, Austin, and Dre as guards. Then we would have at least 3 reliable 3-point threats, possibly 4 if Rodney's outside shooting continues to improve. Is there any possibility Austin Hollins or Joe Coleman could play some point in small doses, sort of like Hoff did before Nolen was injured? Might not be a good idea, just throwing it out there. Maybe Maverick will have improved enough to spell Dre for 4-8 minutes without giving us a heart attack?

I've also wondered a bit about a possible regression with Rodney, but I think he'll be alright, I think his perimeter game improved as well. Maybe he could go baseline and sneak into the lane to go up for some sick alley-oops. While the move to the 4 may have been beneficial for Rodney, I think he also showed genuine improvement as a player and a leader.
 

josh087 said:
This is by far Tubby's deepest, most talented team. The 2012-2013 record needs to reflect this.
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By far?? No way.
 

Compare potential of 2012-13 Gophers to 2010-11 squad

All things being equal (am excluding any Royce White possibilities, he never played a minute for the Gophers). ...

the way the season was headed and what they accomplished prior to the Al Nolen injury (Puerto Rico wins over UNC and WV with Mbakwe playing like a beast, and playing without Devoe Joseph), I think Tubby's 2010-11 squad was the one most equipped to do damage in the NCAA Tournament. That team would have been dangerous in March even without Joseph. A solid ball-hawking PG (Nolen), a beast in the paint (Mbakwe), a sniper (Hoffarber) and some other pretty solid pieces.

I see the 2012-13 Gophers in a similar light, perhaps even better assuming Mbakwe gets fully/mostly healthy by the time the conference season starts. Three guys that have a chance to be studs at their positions (Mbakwe, Williams, Andre Hollins) and a darn good, versatile glue guy like Austin Hollins who can do a little of everything. And it's not like the rest of the roster is devoid of skill, size, experience, etc.
 

SelectionSunday said:
All things being equal (am excluding any Royce White possibilities, he never played a minute for the Gophers). ...

the way the season was headed and what they accomplished prior to the Al Nolen injury (Puerto Rico wins over UNC and WV with Mbakwe playing like a beast, and playing without Devoe Joseph), I think Tubby's 2010-11 squad was the one most equipped to do damage in the NCAA Tournament. That team would have been dangerous in March even without Joseph. A solid ball-hawking PG (Nolen), a beast in the paint (Mbakwe), a sniper (Hoffarber) and some other pretty solid pieces.

I see the 2012-13 Gophers in a similar light, perhaps even better assuming Mbakwe gets fully/mostly healthy by the time the conference season starts. Three guys that have a chance to be studs at their positions (Mbakwe, Williams, Andre Hollins) and a darn good, versatile glue guy like Austin Hollins who can do a little of everything. And it's not like the rest of the roster is devoid of skill, size, experience, etc.
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That team showed on the court it was capable of being a top 15 team at full strength, which they obviously never got to, but yeah, even without Devoe, they were legit. It's a shame they had nothing after Nolen to provide SOME type of lead guard play, cause that team could have made a run IMO. I'd also say that if we're talking potential for a squad from the prior May, Tubby's third squad easily takes the cake as his most talented one. Years 3 and 4 should have both been deep tourney run type years, but we all know what happened with that. Now after some rebuilding, he's got another chance with another potentially strong team. Hopefully it pays off this time.
 

Cayman said:
That sounds about right unfortunately, and I was also unhappy about the upset wins : upset losses ratio. But in 2010-11 I have to imagine we weren't favored against North Carolina, not sure about West Virginia, beat a top 10 Purdue team at home, and beat Michigan on the road (though at the time they were probably underrated and we were overrated a few days after losing Joseph, and losing Nolen partway through). We do get a good few upset wins, though definitely not this year, and they do generally seem to be outnumbered by upset losses.

I think Welch is a reliable back-up PG for Dre, though I've been picturing in my mind a nice small 3 guard lineup with Trevor at the 5, Rodney at 4, and Welch, Austin, and Dre as guards. Then we would have at least 3 reliable 3-point threats, possibly 4 if Rodney's outside shooting continues to improve. Is there any possibility Austin Hollins or Joe Coleman could play some point in small doses, sort of like Hoff did before Nolen was injured? Might not be a good idea, just throwing it out there. Maybe Maverick will have improved enough to spell Dre for 4-8 minutes without giving us a heart attack?

I've also wondered a bit about a possible regression with Rodney, but I think he'll be alright, I think his perimeter game improved as well. Maybe he could go baseline and sneak into the lane to go up for some sick alley-oops. While the move to the 4 may have been beneficial for Rodney, I think he also showed genuine improvement as a player and a leader.
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NO

Coleman doesn't have the handles to be a 2 guard, much less a pg.
 

station19 said:
NO

Coleman doesn't have the handles to be a 2 guard, much less a pg.
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Depends if he works on it this off season.
 

scher215 said:
Depends if he works on it this off season.
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I think there is more to it than, 'if he works at it'.

If Trevor 'works on his 3pt shot' this summer, we he become a legitimate 3pt threat?
 

SelectionSunday said:
All things being equal (am excluding any Royce White possibilities, he never played a minute for the Gophers). ...

the way the season was headed and what they accomplished prior to the Al Nolen injury (Puerto Rico wins over UNC and WV with Mbakwe playing like a beast, and playing without Devoe Joseph), I think Tubby's 2010-11 squad was the one most equipped to do damage in the NCAA Tournament. That team would have been dangerous in March even without Joseph. A solid ball-hawking PG (Nolen), a beast in the paint (Mbakwe), a sniper (Hoffarber) and some other pretty solid pieces.

I see the 2012-13 Gophers in a similar light, perhaps even better assuming Mbakwe gets fully/mostly healthy by the time the conference season starts. Three guys that have a chance to be studs at their positions (Mbakwe, Williams, Andre Hollins) and a darn good, versatile glue guy like Austin Hollins who can do a little of everything. And it's not like the rest of the roster is devoid of skill, size, experience, etc.
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I think on paper the team's are similar, but the nice thing about that team was how perfectly it was built. You had the outside big man in Ralph, the post big man in Trevor, the shooter in Blake and the control the pace PG in Al. You also had (sometimes) a scorer off the bench in Devoe.

There are obvious improvements on this team. Andre is a better scorer than Al and a smarter one than Devoe, but can he manage the game like Al did? Can he defend opposing PG's like Al? Austin, Welch, and Andre can all shoot the long ball, but is that enough to make up for the quick release of the Hoff?

Austin is going to be great on D, as will Rodney which is going to be huge this year. But my biggest question for this year is how the bigs/Rodney are used. As well as how healthy are Mbakwe and Walker?

On the '10-'11 team, Ralph played the high and Trevor played the low while Rodney was only asked to play defense and play hard. This season I wonder if we will go back to the high-low and can Mo Walker execute it like Ralph did with Trev? Will Trevor and Rodney be the 4-5? Can Elliott/Mo and Trevor be on the court together? How does this affect Rodney's scoring now that he has the confidence and ability to score more?

Can we get consistent scoring from at least one bench player a game? Will Tubby shorten the rotation?

I am very optimistic, but Tubby has a lot of decisions to make in order to put guys in the best position to succeed and if he pulls the right strings this team could be scary good.
 

One thing I'm totally on board with (GW mentioned this earlier) is the "en masse" substitutions have to stop. I just don't get it. You can get your studs plenty of rest without taking 'em all out at the same time. Mix and match the starters with the guys coming off the bench.

Except for the rare occasions when a starting lineup is completely sleepwalking, the 5-for-5 stuff was nonsense when Monson did it, and it's nonsense now when Tubby does it. Sure, it'll work on occasion, but more often than we'll get burned if we do it vs. a quality opponent.
 

This team ought to have high aspirations, higher than just making the Tournament. They can't be limited by the notion that, since IU, MI, MSU and OSU are in the league, the best they can hope for is fighting with WI for 5th place.

The major factor for next year is how mentally tough the team turns out to be. Can they finish games against the good teams (and against the lesser teams, for all that matters)? Do they believe they belong with the teams competing for a conference title? Do they play well or lay an egg if they find themselves in a big game in the closing weeks of the schedule?
 

SelectionSunday said:
One thing I'm totally on board with (GW mentioned this earlier) is the "en masse" substitutions have to stop. I just don't get it. You can get your studs plenty of rest without taking 'em all out at the same time. Mix and match the starters with the guys coming off the bench.

Except for the rare occasions when a starting lineup is completely sleepwalking, the 5-for-5 stuff was nonsense when Monson did it, and it's nonsense now when Tubby does it. Sure, it'll work on occasion, but more often than we'll get burned if we do it vs. a quality opponent.
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IIRC- Monson only did this when the starters played horrid. Tubby seems to like to do it regardless. I am hoping that he has done it because he felt we had no stars and that he was best off working with units because of minimal ability differences. Now he has a roster with 5 to 7 clearly better players and I hope he substitutes more normally. The 5 for 5 deal is just stupid. A bench player has a better chance of performing if he is in with some better players.
 

there is reason for optimism and I see 10 conference wins as this teams ceiling which should be enough to get them into the NCAA tourney. last year's run aside this team under Tubby needs to prove in can play better in March and not peak in December.
 

Cayman said:
That sounds about right unfortunately, and I was also unhappy about the upset wins : upset losses ratio. But in 2010-11 I have to imagine we weren't favored against North Carolina, not sure about West Virginia, beat a top 10 Purdue team at home, and beat Michigan on the road (though at the time they were probably underrated and we were overrated a few days after losing Joseph, and losing Nolen partway through). We do get a good few upset wins, though definitely not this year, and they do generally seem to be outnumbered by upset losses.

I think Welch is a reliable back-up PG for Dre, though I've been picturing in my mind a nice small 3 guard lineup with Trevor at the 5, Rodney at 4, and Welch, Austin, and Dre as guards. Then we would have at least 3 reliable 3-point threats, possibly 4 if Rodney's outside shooting continues to improve. Is there any possibility Austin Hollins or Joe Coleman could play some point in small doses, sort of like Hoff did before Nolen was injured? Might not be a good idea, just throwing it out there. Maybe Maverick will have improved enough to spell Dre for 4-8 minutes without giving us a heart attack?

I've also wondered a bit about a possible regression with Rodney, but I think he'll be alright, I think his perimeter game improved as well. Maybe he could go baseline and sneak into the lane to go up for some sick alley-oops. While the move to the 4 may have been beneficial for Rodney, I think he also showed genuine improvement as a player and a leader.
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I think the Gophers were actually favored in that home game against Purdue two years ago and they lost a lot as favorites late in the year (PSU twice for example), but they did perform well in San Juan with the upset over UNC and possibly WVU (best week of the Tubby era for me, all the games were on my DVR for about a year until a storm or something erased everything).

I felt like Big Ten teams figured out how to overwhelm Welch with ball pressure because he simply wasn't explosive enough to make teams pay for pressuring him tightly. I do think he's a crafty player and I like your idea of using him with 'Dre, Austin, Rodney, and Trevor. In that scenario, he's not going to be asked to do the majority of the ballhandling and he might gets some good looks from the outside in that lineup.
 

bga1 said:
IIRC- Monson only did this when the starters played horrid. Tubby seems to like to do it regardless. I am hoping that he has done it because he felt we had no stars and that he was best off working with units because of minimal ability differences. Now he has a roster with 5 to 7 clearly better players and I hope he substitutes more normally. The 5 for 5 deal is just stupid. A bench player has a better chance of performing if he is in with some better players.
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I think you make some good points bga1. I thought Tubby did the 5 for 5 subs with the idea that he could wear down a more talented opponent with fresh legs down the stretch. This was one reason why his late game stalling tactics were so frustrating because they negated any advantage "fresh legs" would have given the Gophers. I personally would have preferred to see the Gophers mix and match last year as when that second unit would come in, I couldn't figure out who they expected to score.
 

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