Amelia blog: Why the Gophers (almost surely) will get into the NCAA tournament

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While I agree with the premise, she's all over the place at the end there. Pretty sure the Gophers don't play at Wisconsin again.
 

Also pretty sure it's a moot point, not a mute point. Then again I'm not an English major.
 


If they only beat PSU and Nebraska... and lose three other games (I4, @PUR, B1G tourney)... man, I don't know. Could be one of the highest "BCS" RPI teams to be denied.
 


Good lord is Myron back? That was an awful piece of journalism.
 







Gopher Warrior said:
If they only beat PSU and Nebraska... and lose three other games (I4, @PUR, B1G tourney)... man, I don't know. Could be one of the highest "BCS" RPI teams to be denied.
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I agree - with how they've finished the season, they would have no right to complain if they didn't make it. It would be a fitting end to one of the biggest collapses in college basketball history.
 

For all the talk of the 'terrible finish' if we beat PSU and Nebraska, we'll have gone 5-6 in the last 11 B1G games. Is that great? Certainly not. Is it really an 'epic collapse'? No. So even if the Selection Committee does unofficially take how you've played last 10 games, etc. it shouldn't hurt us that bad. It truly is a case of looking worse up close than from afar. Most of the folks who make these decisions just know that we lost road games to Iowa and OSU. Not how awful we looked doing it.
 

Quality editing. Some other nice parts not pointed out:

"The committee also doesn’t actually add any added weight..."

"At the same time, it’s not the process is run by computers."

"CBS Sports bracketologist Jerry Palm, who I also spoke with on the topic noted just how well-off the Gophers are comparatively."

"...constantly threat to kill my iphone battery."

I wonder how long it took her to write that. To her credit though, she's certainly been putting in work lately with the other ones. I don't remember other writers running their own analyses.
 



howeda7 said:
For all the talk of the 'terrible finish' if we beat PSU and Nebraska, we'll have gone 5-6 in the last 11 B1G games. Is that great? Certainly not. Is it really an 'epic collapse'? No. So even if the Selection Committee does unofficially take how you've played last 10 games, etc. it shouldn't hurt us that bad. It truly is a case of looking worse up close than from afar. Most of the folks who make these decisions just know that we lost road games to Iowa and OSU. Not how awful we looked doing it.
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It is interesting when you talk about what kind of run we are on at the end, how important it is to consider how many games you look at. If we win only the two you mentioned from here on out, when you use the 11 game horizon you did, you are correct, we were 5-6 and that is pretty mediocre. However, you would also be able to say that we were 5-10 in our last 15 games, which is pretty horrendous. Conversely, you could say we went 2-1 in our last three and have the momentum going forward again.
 

PSU and Nebraska would definitely likely be enough, mainly because we'd only have two bad losses on the entire resume (assuming our 1st rounder in BTT isn't a "bad loss", despite how crappy we've played lately. And we also have a ton of quality wins. Really, playing the tough schedule is killing our psyche with the losses, but it's keeping us afloat in the tourney picture.

I say we just beat IU as well and really just leave no doubt. :)
 


underground629 said:
Quality editing. Some other nice parts not pointed out:

"The committee also doesn’t actually add any added weight..."

"At the same time, it’s not the process is run by computers."

"CBS Sports bracketologist Jerry Palm, who I also spoke with on the topic noted just how well-off the Gophers are comparatively."

"...constantly threat to kill my iphone battery."

I wonder how long it took her to write that. To her credit though, she's certainly been putting in work lately with the other ones. I don't remember other writers running their own analyses.
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This season is like a survival contest. The roller coaster of emotions are getting the better judgement of many fine Gopher fans and I'm afraid the abilities to corral the English language. I've written pieces far more poorly in my lifetime. What will happen Tuesday, I am not sure, but I will bet emotions will run high. Go Gophers and take care of yourselves.
 


Monty519 said:
PSU and Nebraska would definitely likely be enough...Really, playing the tough schedule is killing our psyche with the losses, but it's keeping us afloat in the tourney picture.
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"definitely likely be"... sounds like half pregnant. Minnesota hasn't played a tough schedule, they just have a strong SOS. There's a difference.
 



Gopher Warrior said:
"definitely likely be"... sounds like half pregnant. Minnesota hasn't played a tough schedule, they just have a strong SOS. There's a difference.
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Intersting and valid points, GW.

However, what I would point out is the Gophers aren't competing against Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin for a spot in the field. They're all pretty much locked in. Only Illinois is in a situation similar to the Gophers.

Considering the Gophers' current predicament, a more interesting/valid comparison would be their NC schedule matched up against other teams sitting on the fence.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
"definitely likely be"... sounds like half pregnant. Minnesota hasn't played a tough schedule, they just have a strong SOS. There's a difference.
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Yeah, I noticed how I wrote that after the fact but just left it alone. Let's put it this way, if they go into Selection Sunday with only 2 losses to 100+ RPI teams, I think they're fine.

Regarding the schedule, when you have the #1 SOS, it does say something. I feel like they're played a pretty tough schedule this season, doesn't excuse some of their losses (Northwestern and Iowa in particular), but they've played a pretty good schedule when compared to other bubble teams.
 

minny01 said:
Going from 15-1; ranked 8th in the country; to missing the tournament - name one worse (that didn't take place without injuries and/or suspensions having occurred).
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A. They're not going to miss the tournament.

B. This "collapse" did have injuries.
 

Gopher Warrior said:
"definitely likely be"... sounds like half pregnant. Minnesota hasn't played a tough schedule, they just have a strong SOS. There's a difference.
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I agree. The focus on out of conference strength of schedule always confuses me because of the stinkers that the big conferences schedule. If one of the experts on here could correct me, based on the RPI definition of SOS and my own understanding, the following could occur:

Team A: 14 out of conference games against teams ranked between 100 and 150 in the RPI which they win, 1 game against a top 5 team which they lose. (14-1)
Team B: 12 out of conference games against teams ranked between 200 and 300 which they win, 3 games against top 5 schools of which they win 1. (12-3)

Outcome: As I understand the strength of schedule system, you could say that Team A has both the higher record and the stronger schedule, even though I would submit they did not play a tougher schedule.

I guess my long-winded point is that it seems like strength of schedule as calculated focuses too much on who schedules teams that are bad rather than teams that are horrible.
 

bemidjigopher said:
Well thankfully it's SOS that is considered
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I'm not sure people are really that blind.

Other factors could come into play as well.......like if Minnesota is saying, "oh, Rodney Williams is hurt", etc...

There's no doubt Minnesota's final RPI will be "good". But if they only beat PSU and Neb, they might be sweating.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Intersting and valid points, GW.

However, what I would point out is the Gophers aren't competing against Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin for a spot in the field. They're all pretty much locked in. Only Illinois is in a situation similar to the Gophers.

Considering the Gophers' current predicament, a more interesting/valid comparison would be their NC schedule matched up against other teams sitting on the fence.
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Yes - would love to take look at tough competition that bubble teams have faced this year - that link was really going after the claim that "Minnesota's schedule is super tough - most difficult of all Big Ten teams".

When you get into a look at other teams sitting on the fence, though... then you need to bring into the fact that playing Big Ten teams in conference means you play a lot of good teams.. more so than a lot of other conferences... so, overall strength of schedule -- I'm OK with saying Minnesota schedule is s pretty tough compared to all college bball teams. NCSOS, though - no way. Not very difficult.
 


afurry91 said:
Rodney Williams in Big 10 play does not count as an injury that makes us worse.
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Losing unquestionably one of our 3 best players on a team that (generously) goes about 7 deep? Ok, sure - whatever you say.

Are you ever positive about anything, ever? Why are you a Gopher fan if it causes you so much agony?
 


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