Already bowling (likely)

[STPGopher]

If we manage to lose to one of the worst Wisc teams in a while, at home, after everything bad and wrong that has happened this year …… they don’t deserve a bowl game and I hope it works out that they don’t get one.

I want the Gophers to go to a bowl. The added practices will help the newer guys!

 

[Some guy]

12 spots left
One goes to army/navy winner.
The gophers need 5 win teams to go 10-12 in games that aren’t Navy/SMU


Big games in order:
Tuesday
Buffalo vs eastern Michigan
I have Eastern Michigan favored. Buffalo is favored by Vegas.

Thursday
Ole miss vs MS state

Friday
TCU vs Oklahoma
Iowa vs Nebraska
Toledo vs Central Michigan
New Mexico Vs Utah state

Saturday
Northern Illinois vs Kent state
Navy vs SMU (not an elimination but eliminates the possibility of both army AND Navy)
Houston vs UCF
Florida Atlantic Vs Rice
Wake Forest vs Syracuse
Ga State vs Old Dominion
La Monroe vs Louisiana
BYU vs Ok State
Va Tech vs Virginia
Northwestern vs Illinois
Arkansas state vs Marshall
Wazzu vs Washington
Florida state vs Florida
Clemson vs South Carolina
Charlotte vs South Florida
Cal Vs UCLA
Colorado state Vs Hawaii (this is a 10pm game…if gophers are 5-7 and there is one spot left this may be must watch TV for gopher fans).

 

[Some guy]

There are 70 teams with 6+ wins
There are 82 spots.

2 of the teams in the 70 are not eligible but would go before 5-7 teams.

So even though they don’t have 70 bowl eligible teams there are 70 teams that would go before 5-7 Minnesota.

Minnesota is now the first team that would go at 5-7. Because all the teams with higher APR’s are eligible via 6+ wins.

So there are 12 spots left.
5-5 Navy - vs 9-2 SMU and vs 5-6 Army
5-6 Army - vs 5-5 navy
Assuming SMU beats navy, one of these two will go bowling and the other won’t. (Not sure how this works with the game a week late)
11 spots left

5-6 south Florida vs 3-8 Charlotte (project eligible)
10 spots left

5-6 Rice vs 4-7 FAU (project eligible)
9 spots left

5-6 Va tech vs 3-8 VA (project eligible)
8 spots left

5-6 Syracuse vs 4-7 Wake (project ineligible)
8 spots left

5-6 TCU vs 9-2 Oklahoma (project ineligible)
8 spots left

5-6 BYU vs 8-3 Ok state (project ineligible)
8 spots left

5-6 UCF Vs 4-7 Houston (project eligible)
7 spots left

5-6 Illinois vs 6-5 northwestern )project eligible)
6 spots left

5-6 Nebraska vs 9-2 Iowa (project ineligible)
6 spots left

5-6 northern Illinois vs 1-10 Kent state (project eligible)
5 spots left

5-6 eastern Michigan vs 3-8 Buffalo (project eligible) 4 spots left

5-6 central Michigan vs 10-1 Toledo (project ineligible)
4 spots left

5-6 Utah state vs 4-7 New Mexico (project eligible)
3 spots left

5-6 Colorado state vs 4-8 Hawaii (project eligible) 2 spots left

5-6 cal vs 7-4 UCLA (project ineligible)
2 spots left

spot left

5-6 wazzu vs 11-0 Washington (project ineligible)
2 spot left

5-6 Florida vs 11-0 Florida state (project ineligible)
2 spot left

5-6 South Carolina vs 7-4 Clemson (project ineligible)
2 spot left

5-6 Mississippi state vs 9-2 ole miss (project ineligible)
2 spot left

5-6 Marshall vs 6-5 Arkansas state (project ineligible)
2 spot left

5-6 Louisiana vs 2-9 LA Monroe (project eligible)
1 spots left.



If there are 0 upsets (by record not spread…I didn’t check spread), The gophers will be out. If there is one upset in the gophers favor the gophers would be in.




I don’t have analytics numbers but with a gophers loss I would put it as a 51% they go bowling anyways.

Error corrected

Cal doesn’t play Stanford they play UCLA. This changes Cal to projected ineligible

This updates it from 51% chance of 5-7 gophers bowling to probably about 55-60% chance.

 

[DarthGopher]

Error corrected

Cal doesn’t play Stanford they play UCLA. This changes Cal to projected ineligible

This updates it from 51% chance of 5-7 gophers bowling to probably about 55-60% chance.

Or we could stop playing Scaredy Ball, beat Wisconsin, retain The Axe and have a 100% chance.

Saturday is basically a bowl game in our home stadium. If he can't get the team to show up and show out for that one, then I think next year the seat is definitely going to be a lot warmer.

 

[Some guy]

Or we could stop playing Scaredy Ball, beat Wisconsin, retain The Axe and have a 100% chance.

Saturday is basically a bowl game in our home stadium. If he can't get the team to show up and show out for that one, then I think next year the seat is definitely going to be a lot warmer.

This thread is unrelated to the gopher Wisconsin game
I stated this thread 3 weeks ago

This thread is also not related to Fleck’s job security

This thread is also not me predicting a loss to wisconsin

 

[Spaulding!No!]

Playing NMSU?

 

[DarthGopher]

This thread is unrelated to the gopher Wisconsin game
I stated this thread 3 weeks ago

This thread is also not related to Fleck’s job security

This thread is also not me predicting a loss to wisconsin

Well good for you.

 

[DarthGopher]

Playing NMSU?

That is not part of the analysis. You have been issued one demerit.

 

[Some guy]

Well good for you.

Thanks

 

[Some guy]

That is not part of the analysis. You have been issued one demerit.

No demerits in this thread. But you are correct this isn’t a bowl placement projection

 

[MplsGopher]

@STPGopher assuming those new guys agree to participate in the meaningless bowl and haven't already transferred out!

 

[jeff111]

According to a USA today story (https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...ootball-bowl-eligibility-picture/71648714007/) and a couple of others I've seen, there are 67 right now, not 68. Also, Army isn't eligible if they get to 6 wins because 2 of their wins are against FCS teams. So it might be a little more likely at 5-7 than stated above. The article also says that bowls wouldn't wait for Army/Navy to happen to see if Navy gets to 6 wins so it said they would likely need to win this week to get in. I haven't seen that anywhere else though, so I don't know if that is the case.

 

[MplsGopher]

There is the Military Bowl that is literally at Navy's home stadium, and the Hawaii Bowl has never hosted Navy even though there is a huge presence there.

Doesn't prove anything, just saying they might be willing to make a contingent selection.

 

[Some guy]

According to a USA today story (https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...ootball-bowl-eligibility-picture/71648714007/) and a couple of others I've seen, there are 67 right now, not 68. Also, Army isn't eligible if they get to 6 wins because 2 of their wins are against FCS teams. So it might be a little more likely at 5-7 than stated above. The article also says that bowls wouldn't wait for Army/Navy to happen to see if Navy gets to 6 wins so it said they would likely need to win this week to get in. I haven't seen that anywhere else though, so I don't know if that is the case.

Good catch.
The 70 instead of 69 was simply me miscounting.
Army having two FCS wins means there isn’t an auto spot for the army/navy winner.
Also if they need to be eligible before bowl selection Sunday it would make sense because that army-navy game has a special waiver.


With all that being the case. I will update my original post.

 

[Some guy]

13 spots left
22 games not including gopher game

The gophers need 5 win teams to go 10-12 in games that aren’t Navy/SMU


Big games in order:
Tuesday
Buffalo vs eastern Michigan

Thursday
Ole miss vs MS state

Friday
TCU vs Oklahoma
Iowa vs Nebraska
Toledo vs Central Michigan
New Mexico Vs Utah state

Saturday
Northern Illinois vs Kent state
Navy vs SMU
Houston vs UCF
Florida Atlantic Vs Rice
Wake Forest vs Syracuse
Ga State vs Old Dominion
La Monroe vs Louisiana
BYU vs Ok State
Va Tech vs Virginia
Northwestern vs Illinois
Arkansas state vs Marshall
Wazzu vs Washington
Florida state vs Florida
Clemson vs South Carolina
Charlotte vs South Florida
Cal Vs UCLA
Colorado state Vs Hawaii (this is a 10pm game…if gophers are 5-7 and there is one spot left this may be must watch TV for gopher fans).

 

[MplsGopher]

Would they take Army with two FCS before any APR exceptions?

Just like, they'd take two technically ineligible teams before.

 

[Some guy]

Would they take Army with two FCS before any APR exceptions?

Just like, they'd take two technically ineligible teams before.

Not traditionally.
NMSU got a waiver for this but it was largely due to them having 6 wins + only playing 11 games due to one game being canceled last minute and not rescheduled

 

[MplsGopher]

I missed the part where they wouldn’t become 6-6 until Dec 9. Interesting dilemma. I’m sure at least a couple bowls would rather have 6-6/2 FCS Army than some 5-7 FBS team.

If there is a document clearly stating the rules, would be great to see it.

 

[Some guy]

I missed the part where they wouldn’t become 6-6 until Dec 9. Interesting dilemma. I’m sure at least a couple bowls would rather have 6-6/2 FCS Army than some 5-7 FBS team.

If there is a document clearly stating the rules, would be great to see it.

https://ncaaorg.s3.amazonaws.com/championships/sports/football/d1/PBA/2019-20PBA_PostseasonBowlHandbook.pdf

Reading this I’m not actually sure Jacksonville state will get a bowl if they are short a team.
The rule reads that a transitioning team can jump a 5-7 team if they are in their last year of transition.
James Madison is, Jacksonville state is not


A second FCS win does not appear in the exceptions.

5-7 teams by APR does appear in the exceptions after wins against non scholarship FCS
6-7 13 game teams (would have to be Hawaii or played a road game at Hawaii)
James Madison



Everything I have read keeps classifying Jacksonville state in the same situation as James Madison but it may not be true

 

[MplsGopher]

I think the NCAA will have to issue a clarification regarding Jax St and Army. Perhaps will be done privately and we’ll simply know based on if they end up being selected or not.

I can see the argument both ways for Army and Navy. You wanted this special game date, you should have to pay the consequences. OR it’s a special thing honoring our armed forces let’s not hold that against them.

But then on top of it two FCS. Not a single non scholarship FCS. Seems like that 2nd one does not qualify as a valid win and so Army is out regardless? Who knows

 

[Some guy]

I think the NCAA will have to issue a clarification regarding Jax St and Army. Perhaps will be done privately and we’ll simply know based on if they end up being selected or not.

I can see the argument both ways for Army and Navy. You wanted this special game date, you should have to pay the consequences. OR it’s a special thing honoring our armed forces let’s not hold that against them.

But then on top of it two FCS. Not a single non scholarship FCS. Seems like that 2nd one does not qualify as a valid win and so Army is out regardless? Who knows

Based on the rules, army is out regardless
Based on the rules Jax State is out (though many publications say they are in if there aren’t enough 6-6, but unless there are alternate rules I haven’t seen I don’t think that’s true…many reputable reporters are saying JSU is in if there aren’t enough so I am assuming I am wrong and they are all right).

Navy needs a win vs SMU or Army to be eligible. By rule a 5-7 can’t jump a 6-6.
By rule a 5-6 is not eligible. So if on bowl selection day they are 5-6, they are not eligible. 6-5 would be eligible.


I don’t think they need clarification unless they plan on changing their rules this week

 

[STPGopher]

@STPGopher assuming those new guys agree to participate in the meaningless bowl and haven't already transferred out!

Yes I am. They are Gophers, till they no longer are Gophers! Yes this season didn't go as well as we had hoped. After following them for most all of my life, I'm not throwing in the towel on them now.

Go Gophers! Beat the Badgers!!!

 

[MplsGopher]

@Some guy only very minor thing is your document is from 2019-20 timeframe, so if rules quietly changed since then.

There was a recent rule change that made it so you could still keep your redshirt with 4 regular season games and a bowl game, whereas before it was four games total. That felt like a very quiet change. As an example of that such can happen.

 

[disco]

@Some guy only very minor thing is your document is from 2019-20 timeframe, so if rules quietly changed since then.

There was a recent rule change that made it so you could still keep your redshirt with 4 regular season games and a bowl game, whereas before it was four games total. That felt like a very quiet change. As an example of that such can happen.

This is from last years handbook. This years doesn't appear to be published.

3. An institution that is in its final year of reclassification from the Football Championship Subdivision to the Football Bowl Subdivision and meets the definition of a "deserving team".

 

[MplsGopher]

Are we sure Jax State is only in its first year of reclassification?

This is confusingly worded for JSU, while being very clear for JMU, to me: https://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2023-09-10/making-sense-fcs-conference-realignment

but does seem to say that JSU started transition in 2022?

In 2022, James Madison will officially leave for the FBS, joining the Sun Belt.

In 2023, both Sam Houston and Jacksonville State will be FBS programs. In 2022, Sam Houston and Jacksonville State will begin their FBS transition and are ineligible for postseason play, but will remain in the WAC and ASUN conferences, respectively.

I guess it all depends on if JSU is allowed to consider 2022 as its first reclassification year even though they were still in the ASUN (but ineligible for FCS) and had not yet moved to CUSA.

 

[MplsGopher]

I think I will conclude that Army is for sure out and Jax State is for sure in. We’ll see!

 

[disco]

JSU is considered in their final year and are eligible. Despite the headline, this article explains it.

Jacksonville State bowl eligibility, explained: Why Gamecocks are ineligible for 2023 bowl game

Even with seven wins heading into November, Jacksonville State football and coach Rich Rodriguez aren't eligible to compete in a bowl game. Here's why

www.gadsdentimes.com

 

[Some guy]

@Some guy only very minor thing is your document is from 2019-20 timeframe, so if rules quietly changed since then.

There was a recent rule change that made it so you could still keep your redshirt with 4 regular season games and a bowl game, whereas before it was four games total. That felt like a very quiet change. As an example of that such can happen.

Yup
That’s the only one I could find

 

[Ski-U-Mahed]

The Underwhelming Bowl between Minnesota and Clemson would be cool

And Fleck would hype this game up like it's the same Clemson teams the past ten years and the apologists would eat it up.

 

[MplsGopher]

Eastern Mich no problem with Buffalo last night. So that's one more slot off the table.

Along with that we figured out Jax State is in.

Where we at?