All Things P.J. Fleck Rumor Mill Thread - Listed as Candidate for Other Jobs


MplsGopher

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USC is interested i the Cincy coach as the USC AD hired him at Cinn.. They like Franklin, Eric Bienemy and will take a shot at Lincoln Riley.
This all sounds good to me.


The objective thing here is: any "dreams" PJ might have had about getting an upgrade offer this year, went out the window.

Maybe if he somehow guides us to win the West and then beat Ohio St in Indy, they can come back, but I assume USC will have hired by then.
 


MNVCGUY

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This all sounds good to me.


The objective thing here is: any "dreams" PJ might have had about getting an upgrade offer this year, went out the window.

Maybe if he somehow guides us to win the West and then beat Ohio St in Indy, they can come back, but I assume USC will have hired by then.
Or you know, there is still always the possibility that Fleck isn't dreaming about offers from places like USC and feels like he has a pretty damn good situation here....I know, crazy right?
 

Some guy

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USC is interested in the Cincy coach as the USC AD hired him at Cinn.. They like Franklin, Eric Bienemy and will take a shot at Lincoln Riley.
I would be more worried about Penn State taking Fleck than USC.

much better fit for fleck
 



Some guy

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Wait, Why?

Play Michigan and OSU every year?
They ain't putting oars on Penn State uniforms.
He is a Midwest guy. He grew up idolizing Joe Pa

much better fit than USC. He has no experience on west coast apart from a year playing in San Fran

I never said Penn State would want him
 

WindyCityGopher

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Per Forde: USC might not end up alone among high-profile programs looking for a coach, but are enough desirable candidates emerging?

P.J. Fleck (13), Minnesota. You lose to Bowling Green—winner of 13 of its last 56 games before waltzing into Minneapolis on Sept. 25—you pay the marketability price. Taking nothing away from the 11–2 season of 2019, but Fleck’s Minnesota record other than that annus mirabilis is 18–19.

 

bleedsmaroonandgold

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Per Forde: USC might not end up alone among high-profile programs looking for a coach, but are enough desirable candidates emerging?

P.J. Fleck (13), Minnesota. You lose to Bowling Green—winner of 13 of its last 56 games before waltzing into Minneapolis on Sept. 25—you pay the marketability price. Taking nothing away from the 11–2 season of 2019, but Fleck’s Minnesota record other than that annus mirabilis is 18–19.

I don't get the obsession with reporting Fleck's record minus his best year. His record without his best year is worse than with it. His record without his worst year is better than with it. At the end of the day, Fleck's complete record gives him credit for the best one, blame for the worst one, and factors in all the other ones.

PJ Fleck is 29-21 overall and 16-20 in the B1G. I don't think those numbers will surprise anyone, but since we are reporting records that omit cherry-picked seasons, I figured the thread should at least include his real record.
 



GoldGoldGold

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I don't get the obsession with reporting Fleck's record minus his best year. His record without his best year is worse than with it. His record without his worst year is better than with it. At the end of the day, Fleck's complete record gives him credit for the best one, blame for the worst one, and factors in all the other ones.

PJ Fleck is 29-21 overall and 16-20 in the B1G. I don't think those numbers will surprise anyone, but since we are reporting records that omit cherry-picked seasons, I figured the thread should at least include his real record.
Agree 100%. However in the statistical world, there is a process that eliminates both the best and the worst which in their world I guess gives the best "statistical significance" answer.... I dunno....
 

MplsGopher

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Agree 100%. However in the statistical world, there is a process that eliminates both the best and the worst which in their world I guess gives the best "statistical significance" answer.... I dunno....
Right. IF you think his 2019 was just an outlier. That being the big if, that we're all waiting to understand ...
 

WindyCityGopher

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I don't get the obsession with reporting Fleck's record minus his best year. His record without his best year is worse than with it. His record without his worst year is better than with it. At the end of the day, Fleck's complete record gives him credit for the best one, blame for the worst one, and factors in all the other ones.

PJ Fleck is 29-21 overall and 16-20 in the B1G. I don't think those numbers will surprise anyone, but since we are reporting records that omit cherry-picked seasons, I figured the thread should at least include his real record.
I don't disagree, and I don't pretend to know why Forde wrote that summary as he did, but it could be an underlying question about whether 2019 was an outlier for PJ as a coach, or if that's a ceiling he could regularly approach. If I'm an AD at USC or another high profile school looking to make a coaching change, I'm curious about that as well. At this point in Year 5, I'm not sure we know either way.
 

FormerFatOL

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Stupid. If you take away Barry Alvarez's 4th season at WI in his first five, he was 18-26 overall. If you somehow believe his top four seasons were outliers in his 17-year head coaching career, he was 76-67; I guess just a "mediocre" coach under that method. Again, stupid.
 



Bob_Loblaw

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Agree 100%. However in the statistical world, there is a process that eliminates both the best and the worst which in their world I guess gives the best "statistical significance" answer.... I dunno....

We're half way through his 5th season and we had 1 half season (2020 because of COVID). So we essentially have 4 PJ Fleck seasons worth of football right now, it probably doesn't make sense to cut out 50% of our sample size as being outliers.
 

Bob_Loblaw

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I don't get the obsession with reporting Fleck's record minus his best year. His record without his best year is worse than with it. His record without his worst year is better than with it. At the end of the day, Fleck's complete record gives him credit for the best one, blame for the worst one, and factors in all the other ones.

PJ Fleck is 29-21 overall and 16-20 in the B1G. I don't think those numbers will surprise anyone, but since we are reporting records that omit cherry-picked seasons, I figured the thread should at least include his real record.
100%

2019 mattered. Good things count and so do bad things. There is nothing more annoying than people who try to make a profound point by completely missing it. Most of us who are pumped about PJ are pumped about him because for the first time in a really long time we felt like we could genuinely compete with anyone. We won a huge game against a ranked opponent, we had Game Day, and we knocked the piss out of an SEC team at a January 1 bowl. That season gave us genuine hope that we could recruit and play with the big boys. So yes, part of PJ's draw is the 2019 season. It should be.

That argument is like saying "you know, if you ignored all that genius stuff, Einstein wasn't that impressive".
 

PMWinSTP

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Right. IF you think his 2019 was just an outlier. That being the big if, that we're all waiting to understand ...
That's how I see it too. They are saying is his move to P5 successful at this point in time...
 



bleedsmaroonandgold

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Stupid. If you take away Barry Alvarez's 4th season at WI in his first five, he was 18-26 overall. If you somehow believe his top four seasons were outliers in his 17-year head coaching career, he was 76-67; I guess just a "mediocre" coach under that method. Again, stupid.
If they are really good seasons, I actually think the "outliers" should count more than the other seasons. If we start periodically hanging banners (west division and B1G champs), I'd give a lot more slack on how bad the bad seasons are and what the overall record is. Its why, over on the hockey board, I was giving a lot more slack to Lucia than most others (it was not any great love of his recruiting or tactical style, that's for sure). He was the guy who gave us back to back national championships, so I both felt he earned the slack, and was willing to trust that the guy who had done it twice before had as good a chance as anyone at doing it again.

If PJ wins a couple of B1G titles, I'd tolerate a lot of losing seasons and losses to Wisconsin and Iowa and trust that he would be the most likely to get us back to the promised land.
 

FormerFatOL

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Murray Warmath was 87-78 at Minnesota. Take away his top 3 seasons, he was 65-73. He sucked. ;)
 

spermophilus

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I don't get the obsession with reporting Fleck's record minus his best year. His record without his best year is worse than with it. His record without his worst year is better than with it. At the end of the day, Fleck's complete record gives him credit for the best one, blame for the worst one, and factors in all the other ones.

PJ Fleck is 29-21 overall and 16-20 in the B1G. I don't think those numbers will surprise anyone, but since we are reporting records that omit cherry-picked seasons, I figured the thread should at least include his real record.
I’ll bet people who bought Apple at $4, Amazon at $10, count it in their average annualized returns.
 


Gophers1992

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100%

2019 mattered. Good things count and so do bad things. There is nothing more annoying than people who try to make a profound point by completely missing it. Most of us who are pumped about PJ are pumped about him because for the first time in a really long time we felt like we could genuinely compete with anyone. We won a huge game against a ranked opponent, we had Game Day, and we knocked the piss out of an SEC team at a January 1 bowl. That season gave us genuine hope that we could recruit and play with the big boys. So yes, part of PJ's draw is the 2019 season. It should be.

That argument is like saying "you know, if you ignored all that genius stuff, Einstein wasn't that impressive".
This basically sums up my thoughts. For me, it's not about "we have to win 8 games this year or 2019 was a fluke, etc." It's about what's being built for the long term. I get it, we all got a taste of success in 2019 and we want more of that, but it doesn't happen overnight, and it doesn't even always happen over a few years.
 


short ornery norwegian

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OK. let's look at the overall picture:

MASON
97: 3-9
98: 5-6
99: 8-4
00: 6-6
01: 4-7
02: 8-5
03: 10-3
04: 7-5
05: 7-5
06: 6-7

BREWSTER
07: 1-11
08: 7-6
09: 6-7
10: 3-9 (Brewster/Horton)

KILL
11: 3-9
12: 6-7
13: 8-5
14: 8-5
15: 6-7 (Kill/Claeys)

CLAEYS
16: 9-4

FLECK
17: 5-7
18: 7-6
19: 11-2
20: 3-4
21: 3-2

Remember, the thread is about Fleck being considered for other jobs. So you're an AD from another school, and you're asking yourself, how does Fleck's record at MN compare to the coaches who preceded him? At this point, the jury is still out. If Fleck does not want 2019 to be seen as an outlier, then he needs to put up another quality season soon.

But again, if you're an AD from another school, are you going to hire Fleck based on one big season at MN?
 

Gophers1992

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OK. let's look at the overall picture:

MASON
97: 3-9
98: 5-6
99: 8-4
00: 6-6
01: 4-7
02: 8-5
03: 10-3
04: 7-5
05: 7-5
06: 6-7

BREWSTER
07: 1-11
08: 7-6
09: 6-7
10: 3-9 (Brewster/Horton)

KILL
11: 3-9
12: 6-7
13: 8-5
14: 8-5
15: 6-7 (Kill/Claeys)

CLAEYS
16: 9-4

FLECK
17: 5-7
18: 7-6
19: 11-2
20: 3-4
21: 3-2

Remember, the thread is about Fleck being considered for other jobs. So you're an AD from another school, and you're asking yourself, how does Fleck's record at MN compare to the coaches who preceded him? At this point, the jury is still out. If Fleck does not want 2019 to be seen as an outlier, then he needs to put up another quality season soon.

But again, if you're an AD from another school, are you going to hire Fleck based on one big season at MN?
AD's are not hiring guys based on their record compared to previous coaches at that school. They are considering whether a guy can win games there, recruit, get along well with boosters and the AD, and a million other factors. I don't think they're saying "well PJ has to go 8-4 to get this job offer", they are looking at the big picture.
 

MplsGopher

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If you take away Barry Alvarez's 4th season at WI in his first five, he was 18-26 overall.
Hindsight, we know that season wasn't an outlier. But looking back from only year five, they didn't know that at that time.

That's roughly where we are with Fleck, now.

If you somehow believe his top four seasons were outliers in his 17-year head coaching career, he was 76-67
That's not how that works.

The idea is to be able to say after a few years, where it still isn't certain what his program can become, if one great year is an outlier or not.

After 17 years, you know what his program is going to be.
 

MplsGopher

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I could maybe buy the idea that 2019 was an outlier, if PJ didn't also win 13 games at a low level MAC program.
Fair argument. But it's tough for me to look past the actual Big Ten data to go backwards in time at a MAC program that only had to play 2-3 Big Ten games per year.
 

Some Day...Maybe

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OK. let's look at the overall picture:

MASON
97: 3-9
98: 5-6
99: 8-4
00: 6-6
01: 4-7
02: 8-5
03: 10-3
04: 7-5
05: 7-5
06: 6-7

BREWSTER
07: 1-11
08: 7-6
09: 6-7
10: 3-9 (Brewster/Horton)

KILL
11: 3-9
12: 6-7
13: 8-5
14: 8-5
15: 6-7 (Kill/Claeys)

CLAEYS
16: 9-4

FLECK
17: 5-7
18: 7-6
19: 11-2
20: 3-4
21: 3-2

Remember, the thread is about Fleck being considered for other jobs. So you're an AD from another school, and you're asking yourself, how does Fleck's record at MN compare to the coaches who preceded him? At this point, the jury is still out. If Fleck does not want 2019 to be seen as an outlier, then he needs to put up another quality season soon.

But again, if you're an AD from another school, are you going to hire Fleck based on one big season at MN?
Fleck’s first 3 years certainly were quite a bit better than the predecessors you’ve listed. I think Fleck is definitely a better coach than the predecessors you have listed here.
 

MaxyJR1

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Unfortunately schools try to hire coaches based on, often fewer than a full cycle of 4-5 years at a school. Fleck has never been this deep into a program and then you add in COVID. Hard to critique coaches right now.
 




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