After Further Review

[husker70]

Coach Claeys said on the Big 10 Network he expects the defense to be better. All three classes have all the defensive calls down. There is competition at every position, we tackle better, we are making fewer mistakes, and we are faster.

2011 PPG 31.7
TO 9
Sacks 19

2012 PPG 24.7
TO 20
Sacks 26

Projected Defensive Stats

2013 PPG 18.5
TO 24
Sacks 35

If the physical ball control offense takes time off the clock and keeps the defense fresh they could be even better. I think this offense is looking to be more like the Bowl Game 55 rushes 19 passes.

 

[IDFM]

If we have those projections this year, we will have the best or second best defense in the conference.

 

[husker70]

Here are some defensive over/unders

Hageman 15 sacks
Cockran 12 sacks
Amaefula 5 sacks
Botticelli 5 sacks
Wells 3 sacks


Hageman 10 tackles for loss
Johnson 5 tackles for loss
Amaefula 5 tackles for loss
Botticelli 5 tackles for loss

 

[MinneStoa]

Here are some defensive over/unders

Hageman 15 sacks

I will absolutely take the under on that. 'Shede is going to get doubled on nearly every down. I will be surprised if he gets to 10, honestly. But his presence is going to do wonders for the rest of the D line.

 

[MNVCGUY]

I will absolutely take the under on that. 'Shede is going to get doubled on nearly every down. I will be surprised if he gets to 10, honestly. But his presence is going to do wonders for the rest of the D line.

Could not agree more. 15 sacks by a defensive tackle would be an amazing number because as you said he will almost certainly see constant double teams all year. Not to mention the simple fact that DT don't typically get a ton of sacks to begin with. Suh had 12 in the insane 2009 year that he had and while Shede has a chance to be a force in the middle I don't think he is in the same class as Suh. Shede could easily exceed the 10 TFL but if he manages to get 15 sacks we will be talking about the #1 pick in next years draft.

Cockeran at 12 is a very generous number as well. Looked at Big Ten Stats from last year and nobody in the conference had more than 9 for the entire season.

If we come anywhere close to those projections we will have the #1 or #2 defense in the conference and one of the best in the country. While I love the optimism and I think the defense has a chance to be the stronger unit on this team again this year I don't think we have that kind of potential in this unit. However if we do then you better up the win projection now because with that kind of defense we should be talking 9-3 at the end of the year if the offense does anything at all.

 

[RoyalGopher]

Here are some defensive over/unders

Hageman 15 sacks
Cockran 12 sacks
Amaefula 5 sacks
Botticelli 5 sacks
Wells 3 sacks

Under
Under
Under
Under
Under

 

[Section2]

Here are some defensive over/unders

Hageman 15 sacks
Cockran 12 sacks
Amaefula 5 sacks
Botticelli 5 sacks
Wells 3 sacks


Hageman 10 tackles for loss
Johnson 5 tackles for loss
Amaefula 5 tackles for loss
Botticelli 5 tackles for loss

That's 41 sacks. Given that guys like Keith and perry and other DBS and certainly lbs will have sacks, that would put us over 50.

I would say
Shede 9
Cockran 7
Amaefula 5
Botticelli 2
Wells 3
Would be more realistic sack over unders.

 

[husker70]

Much is made about Hageman being double teamed. Little is known about the size and talent of those double teaming him. I remember an Illinois game when he dominated the double team, and had tackles for loss and a couple sacks. How many times will he rush and get his arm up to change a passing lane? Mr. Hageman is a 23 year old man in the middle of the Gopher Defense. Looking at Michigan for instance they have seniors at the tackles and Sophomores at the center and guards. Early in the year we face them. Or should I say they will face Hageman. Every team we face will have to game plan around him, do something special. And that takes something away from what they would like to do. The obvious thing it does, is keeps a guard and or center off the middle line backer. It also makes a pin and pull by the interior extremely difficult.
One key to the defense will be the rotation and the play when he is not in the game.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Much is made about Hageman being double teamed. Little is known about the size and talent of those double teaming him. I remember an Illinois game when he dominated the double team, and had tackles for loss and a couple sacks. How many times will he rush and get his arm up to change a passing lane? Mr. Hageman is a 23 year old man in the middle of the Gopher Defense. Looking at Michigan for instance they have seniors at the tackles and Sophomores at the center and guards. Early in the year we face them. Or should I say they will face Hageman. Every team we face will have to game plan around him, do something special. And that takes something away from what they would like to do. The obvious thing it does, is keeps a guard and or center off the middle line backer. It also makes a pin and pull by the interior extremely difficult.


One key to the defense will be the rotation and the play when he is not in the game.

I don't think anyone would dispute that Shede has a chance to be a very disruptive force in the middle and have a great season. The issue is that the kind of numbers you are projecting for him would have him in historic territory which as much as we love the guy is probably not realistic to expect.

Again I will go back to Suh's 2009 season. He was basically unblockable and still only ended the year with 12 sacks. Shede had 6 last year so an uptick is reasonable to expect but Section 2's over/under number of 9 is much more reasonable as a place to set the bar. 10 is possible, especially if he racks up a bunch against the creampuffs early.

The other big factor on just how great Shede will be this year will be the guys around him. DE and DT go hand in hand, so his dominance should open some things up for the guys on the outside but if they don't prove to be a threat then teams will put all their focus on taking Shede out of the play and block the outside guys 1 on 1. The defense is going to need Cockran or one of the other ends to step up and at least equal what Whilhite was able to do last year.

 

[Curseislifted33]

where did you get those over/under numbers from?

 

[husker70]

I am not absolutely sure of anything on the depth chart, but I think it will be Amaefula, Shede, Botticelli, Cockran. Amaefula had 3 or 4 fumble recoveries last year. That's almost better than a sack. Botticelli is a one gap player, very disciplined. He could benefit from the double team. And if he springs free the center is in a bind. And that could call for a back to block. Certainly Cockran is poised to have a huge year on the edge, I think he will surpass not only Wilhite, but a lot of defensive ends at Minnesota. This is possibly the best and deepest DL at Minnesota in the past ..........

 

[MNVCGUY]

I am not absolutely sure of anything on the depth chart, but I think it will be Amaefula, Shede, Botticelli, Cockran. Amaefula had 3 or 4 fumble recoveries last year. That's almost better than a sack. Botticelli is a one gap player, very disciplined. He could benefit from the double team. And if he springs free the center is in a bind. And that could call for a back to block. Certainly Cockran is poised to have a huge year on the edge, I think he will surpass not only Wilhite, but a lot of defensive ends at Minnesota. This is possibly the best and deepest DL at Minnesota in the past ..........

1999 - Schlect and Russ in the middle - Riley and Michels on the outside was the best in recent memory. The cupboard has been fairly bare sense then but may be a little early to label this line as one of the best ever at the U. Shede has to live up the billing and the other guys have not done all that much to this point in their careers.

 

[husker70]

The 1999 team Average points yielded per game, 16.3.
Karon Riley had 16 sacks, but in 1997 Lamanzer William had 18.5.

The 1999 team did not have the depth in the defensive line. You have Johnson, Legania, and Perry.

 

[Killjoy]

Husker70

I am not absolutely sure of anything on the depth chart, but I think it will be Amaefula, Shede, Botticelli, Cockran. Amaefula had 3 or 4 fumble recoveries last year. That's almost better than a sack. Botticelli is a one gap player, very disciplined. He could benefit from the double team. And if he springs free the center is in a bind. And that could call for a back to block. Certainly Cockran is poised to have a huge year on the edge, I think he will surpass not only Wilhite, but a lot of defensive ends at Minnesota. This is possibly the best and deepest DL at Minnesota in the past ..........

I have always enjoyed your comments but this one really puzzled me. It seems to me a recovered fumble is always better than a sack because now you have the ball. Is that why diehard said "Husker is astute. Not perfect, but astute."

 

[husker70]

My use of almost better, was used to highlight the little noted fumble recovery.

To clarify, three or four fumble recoveries are better than 3-4 sacks.

 

[MNVCGUY]

The 1999 team Average points yielded per game, 16.3.
Karon Riley had 16 sacks, but in 1997 Lamanzer William had 18.5.

The 1999 team did not have the depth in the defensive line. You have Johnson, Legania, and Perry.

After this year we might be singing a different tune if the DL has a great year and some of the young guys prove to be solid Big Ten caliber players. Right now though if given the choice of the 1999 defensive line or the 2013 defensive line I would go 1999 in a heartbeat.

 

[B1GSportsGuy]

Here are some defensive over/unders

Hageman 15 sacks
Cockran 12 sacks
Amaefula 5 sacks
Botticelli 5 sacks
Wells 3 sacks


Hageman 10 tackles for loss
Johnson 5 tackles for loss
Amaefula 5 tackles for loss
Botticelli 5 tackles for loss

Entertaining posts like this make this forum so much fun to read.

 

[Section2]

My use of almost better, was used to highlight the little noted fumble recovery.

To clarify, three or four fumble recoveries are better than 3-4 sacks.

But not as good as a sack that causes a fumble.

 

[husker70]

But not as good as a sack that causes a fumble.

But if the opponents recover, not as good.

 

[Section2]

But if the opponents recover, not as good.

You can't have a fumble recovery without a forced fumble. well, I guess you can fumble the snap.

 

[husker70]

you can fumble a handoff, the fumbled snap, you can have a Jamal Harris moment.

 

[mplsbadger]

Here are some defensive over/unders

Hageman 15 sacks

Under. Ndamukong Suh had 12 his senior season and almost won the Heisman. But I hope you're right!!

 

[Dr.Don]

you can fumble a handoff, the fumbled snap, you can have a Jamal Harris moment.

Can one fumble-a- roosky?

 

[Buck_Buchanan]

Under. Ndamukong Suh had 12 his senior season and almost won the Heisman. But I hope you're right!!

And if you take away his Big XII Title game sacks, he had 7.5 sacks. His 815 Heisman Points landed him (Suh) in 4th that year.

 

[SJUgopher]

I am not absolutely sure of anything on the depth chart, but I think it will be Amaefula, Shede, Botticelli, Cockran. Amaefula had 3 or 4 fumble recoveries last year. That's almost better than a sack. Botticelli is a one gap player, very disciplined. He could benefit from the double team. And if he springs free the center is in a bind. And that could call for a back to block. Certainly Cockran is poised to have a huge year on the edge, I think he will surpass not only Wilhite, but a lot of defensive ends at Minnesota. This is possibly the best and deepest DL at Minnesota in the past ..........

This is most worthless stat in all of FB. Most likely, as a DL, you didn't make a play and were being blocked but the offensive guy had his back to the ball and couldn't see the fumble.

A forced fumble is much more important.

 

[Breakin' The Plane]

husker's numbers do seem high, but I don't think they're impossible to attain. For the first month of the season, the Gophers face putrid offensive lines. SJSU's the best team in the OOC schedule, but their line is awful. They allowed Utah State to sack Fales 13 times in their game last year.

 

[Buck_Buchanan]

husker's numbers do seem high, but I don't think they're impossible to attain. For the first month of the season, the Gophers face putrid offensive lines. SJSU's the best team in the OOC schedule, but their line is awful. They allowed Utah State to sack Fales 13 times in their game last year.

Fales was sacked a total of 26 times during the entire regular season with 1/2 of those vs Utah State. NO team they played after that game during the regular season got 1 sack on Fales. This included the game vs BYU. Bowling Green sacked him 1 time in the Bowl. 1 sack given up in Final 7 games.

 

[MinneStoa]

1 sack given up in Final 7 games.

That just means it's going to hurt that much more when we drop him a dozen times at The Bank.

 

[Deleted_User]

If Husker is spot on, the Gophers are in the National Championship. Teams will fear us all day long. Okay. I'm dreaming big! I'm in.

 

[husker70]

This from Christensen blurb

Defensive end Theiren Cockran said the "U" D-line has set a goal of 30-plus sacks this season