Action Network HQ has the Gophers winning five games.

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Not even an article. I wish they'd show the methodology. My guess is it's computer simulation/average win probability.
 



tried to find an explanation of the methodology on the Action Network website.

couldn't find any direct info - but I did stumble across their updated 2024 Power Rankings. They had MN in 57th place in FBS. as to how the 'power ratings' are compiled, I found this:

Our power ratings are fueled by Wilson’s projections, which aim to judge the true quality of a team based on advanced metrics, coaching changes, year-over-year roster continuity (TARP) and a host of other underlying components.

the "advanced metrics" link led me to a long article talking about things like "why yards per play is a better measure than yards per game" and things of that nature. it made my head hurt.
 

short ornery norwegian said:
tried to find an explanation of the methodology on the Action Network website.

couldn't find any direct info - but I did stumble across their updated 2024 Power Rankings. They had MN in 57th place in FBS. as to how the 'power ratings' are compiled, I found this:

Our power ratings are fueled by Wilson’s projections, which aim to judge the true quality of a team based on advanced metrics, coaching changes, year-over-year roster continuity (TARP) and a host of other underlying components.

the "advanced metrics" link led me to a long article talking about things like "why yards per play is a better measure than yards per game" and things of that nature. it made my head hurt.
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So reading that was sort of like listening to a Kamala Harris interview?
 

Bad article.

Look at the running backs including Taylor, possibly elite level.

Look at the offensive line, strong.

Look at a new veteran QB as compared to the QB flop last season.

I don't know about defense except historically Fleck is strong there. Last season had a couple late game collapses.
 




Winning 5 of the first 5 games would be an awesome start to the season. Go gophers!
 

Crosby said:
So reading that was sort of like listening to a Kamala Harris interview?
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can we save the politics for the Off-Topic Board? it's going to get bad enough this year without turning every thread on Gopher Hole into a political forum.

all I was saying is that some of these discussions on advanced stats get so into the weeds that I fail to grasp what point the writer is trying to make. I understand the basic concept - I just don't feel a need to watch the sausage being made, so to speak.
 

It always sucks to see us so low, but we'll have a whole bunch of chances to beat teams listed above us and prove them wrong.
 



Is the “action” code for gambling? Anyway, this could be a great year to put money down. The true differentiator between bluster and sincere belief is willingness to have a stake in the action.

Kudos for the bettors willing to post redacted screenshots of their bets.

Let’s just hope the players, officials, and coaches aren’t participating. I won’t be, because I don’t have a bleeping clue.
 

To declare a winner...shouldn't we either be 4 1/2 or 5 1/2, not 5?
I don't feel confident enough to bet we will win 6 and if 5 is a push...well that's no fun.

I think it's really difficult to know what the Gophers are going to be. They could win 4, they could win 8 and I don't think either would surprise me. Winning game one seems pretty big in charting the season.
 


Action Network HQ:

dirty-dozen-never-heard-of-it.gif
 

short ornery norwegian said:
can we save the politics for the Off-Topic Board? it's going to get bad enough this year without turning every thread on Gopher Hole into a political forum.

all I was saying is that some of these discussions on advanced stats get so into the weeds that I fail to grasp what point the writer is trying to make. I understand the basic concept - I just don't feel a need to watch the sausage being made, so to speak.
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Yeah, there is definitely value in analytics but holy crap it can get so ridiculously detailed at times. There are like a million new baseball stats these days.
 

60's Guy said:
I don't feel confident enough to bet we will win 6 and if 5 is a push...well that's no fun.
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You gotta dig deeper - there is still money to be made. If the Gophers are at 5 wins before the last game of the season, then in that game you bet a small amount on the opponent. If the Gophers lose and "push" you win the bet you made on the opponent. If the Gophers win, you win your original bet which should easily cover the cost of the lost bet on the opponent.
 


60's Guy said:
To declare a winner...shouldn't we either be 4 1/2 or 5 1/2, not 5?
I don't feel confident enough to bet we will win 6 and if 5 is a push...well that's no fun.

I think it's really difficult to know what the Gophers are going to be. They could win 4, they could win 8 and I don't think either would surprise me. Winning game one seems pretty big in charting the season.
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If the Gophers beat UNC and they more or less appear in control from the opening kick-off with steady QB play, I'm willing to dream big and think 8-wins is an achievable record. Arminius aka Homer Sota
 



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