A suggestion for B1G expansion: Kansas and Colorado

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Gophers_4life said:
But they (Big Ten) decided not to do Alliance scheduling in football.

That was going to be the point. Now I have no idea what the point of the Alliance is, perhaps other than just to oppose the SEC in voting.
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Link please.
 

PMWinSTP said:
Link please.
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Gene Smith in a Press Conf this February.

theathletic.com

Ohio State AD Gene Smith doesn't foresee Big Ten schedule changes to facilitate Alliance games with Pac-12, ACC

Ohio State AD Gene Smith said The Alliance of the Big Ten, ACC and Pac-12 may not lead to changes in scheduling formats.
theathletic.com theathletic.com

www.espn.com

Big Ten ADs prefer to keep 9-game league slate

Ohio State's Gene Smith said Big Ten athletic directors "walked away" from the idea of reducing the conference schedule from nine games to eight, which would have allowed more alliance matchups with the ACC and Pac-12.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 

mngolf said:
They're leaving kills the PAC. So then ucla, Oregon, plus a few others also come. That comes with necessary money I gotta believe.
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Big ten projected payouts:
2026 = 86.5 million per team

Thats 1.2 billion

To add 1 team and make that go to 90 million per team. The one team you add needs to be worth 135 million.
To add two teams and make the payouts 90 million per team, the two teams need to be worth 240 million in additional revenue.

To add 4 teams and have the payouts be 90 million per school, the 4 teams added have to be 420 million in additional revenue.

To add 6 teams and have payouts be 90 million per school, the payouts would have to be 600 million in additional revenue.


Currently the entire pac 12 contract is worth 620 million in 2026.

So if you can find the half the pac 12 that is worth 97% of pac 12 revenue and drop the half that is worth 3% adding 6 can work.

Is USC, Washington, Oregon, and Stanford/Arizona state/Colorado (my guess is team 4 is one of those 3) worth 68% of pac 12 revenue?

Is USC and Washington worth 39% of pac 12 revenue?



Because that is what it would take to make each big ten school an additional 3.5 million dollars per school. And that assumes the lost big 10 games don’t lose any value


If you added the entire pac 12 TV contract to the big ten revenue and added the 12 pac 12 teams, the big ten’s revenue would fall from 86.5 million per team estimated in 2026 to 70
 


mngolf said:
Not ASU. They are not AAC.
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If you mean AAU (since AAC is the American Athletic Conf), then you are correct that Arizona State is not a member.

Dartmouth, of the Ivy League, only just became a member in 2019.
 


Some guy said:
Big ten projected payouts:
2026 = 86.5 million per team

Thats 1.2 billion

To add 1 team and make that go to 90 million per team. The one team you add needs to be worth 135 million.
To add two teams and make the payouts 90 million per team, the two teams need to be worth 240 million in additional revenue.

To add 4 teams and have the payouts be 90 million per school, the 4 teams added have to be 420 million in additional revenue.

To add 6 teams and have payouts be 90 million per school, the payouts would have to be 600 million in additional revenue.


Currently the entire pac 12 contract is worth 620 million in 2026.

So if you can find the half the pac 12 that is worth 97% of pac 12 revenue and drop the half that is worth 3% adding 6 can work.

Is USC, Washington, Oregon, and Stanford/Arizona state/Colorado (my guess is team 4 is one of those 3) worth 68% of pac 12 revenue?

Is USC and Washington worth 39% of pac 12 revenue?



Because that is what it would take to make each big ten school an additional 3.5 million dollars per school. And that assumes the lost big 10 games don’t lose any value


If you added the entire pac 12 TV contract to the big ten revenue and added the 12 pac 12 teams, the big ten’s revenue would fall from 86.5 million per team estimated in 2026 to 70
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Just like when selling anything: something is worth what someone else wants to pay for it.

If the Big Ten added those four, and told its TV partners "we're going to 16 members and we're doing 10 conf games per year, you're going to be getting a lot of great games to put in your timeslots, and a significant number more of them ... we want $XX per school per year", it would be up to the TV partners to decide if the content was worth that raise or not.

There's not a lot that draws people to live TV these days, where you have a captive audience for commercials. Sports is one thing.


That said, of course, your analysis is a quick "sanity check" showing often how the numbers just don't work out.
 

Ope3 said:
Gene Smith in a Press Conf this February.

theathletic.com

Ohio State AD Gene Smith doesn't foresee Big Ten schedule changes to facilitate Alliance games with Pac-12, ACC

Ohio State AD Gene Smith said The Alliance of the Big Ten, ACC and Pac-12 may not lead to changes in scheduling formats.
theathletic.com theathletic.com

www.espn.com

Big Ten ADs prefer to keep 9-game league slate

Ohio State's Gene Smith said Big Ten athletic directors "walked away" from the idea of reducing the conference schedule from nine games to eight, which would have allowed more alliance matchups with the ACC and Pac-12.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
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Article from March 2022. Remains to be seen what happens. Going to eight gives it the every year flexibility to schedule marquee match ups between conferences.

This seems to be the biggest question, and at least within the Alliance, it all starts with the Big Ten because its media rights deal expires first. Though Smith indicated the Big Ten ADs want to stay at nine league games, he and Warren said no decisions have been made just yet.

More conference games would mean fewer spots for Alliance matchups.

"We are working through items pertaining to what's the appropriate number of games, how our conference should be structured from a division or nondivision standpoint," Warren said. "I look forward to over the next couple months being able to come to some decision in regards to [the] number of conference games."
www.espn.com

The Alliance explained: ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 on CFP vote, scheduling and what comes next

Commissioners Jim Phillips (ACC), Kevin Warren (Big Ten) and George Kliavkoff (Pac-12) spoke last week with ESPN to help clear up what the Alliance is and where it's going.
www.espn.com www.espn.com
 

Gophers_4life said:
Just like when selling anything: something is worth what someone else wants to pay for it.

If the Big Ten added those four, and told its TV partners "we're going to 16 members and we're doing 10 conf games per year, you're going to be getting a lot of great games to put in your timeslots, and a significant number more of them ... we want $XX per school per year", it would be up to the TV partners to decide if the content was worth that raise or not.

There's not a lot that draws people to live TV these days, where you have a captive audience for commercials. Sports is one thing.


That said, of course, your analysis is a quick "sanity check" showing often how the numbers just don't work out.
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That’s not even an equal comparison though.

The big ten football schedule is worth 86.5 million at 9 conference games.
At 10 conference games it is presumably worth more.



What is worth more money per school? 14 team big ten with 10 conference games or 20 team big ten with 10 conference games per school. That is the true comparison in your scenario.


The problem with the expansion bobos is that their rebuttals to everything is “it’s all about the money” and “money talks”
These are true arguments. And arguments to stay at 14, not to expand.
 

Some guy said:
That’s not even an equal comparison though.

The big ten football schedule is worth 86.5 million at 9 conference games.
At 10 conference games it is presumably worth more.



What is worth more money per school? 14 team big ten with 10 conference games or 20 team big ten with 10 conference games per school. That is the true comparison in your scenario.


The problem with the expansion bobos is that their rebuttals to everything is “it’s all about the money” and “money talks”
These are true arguments. And arguments to stay at 14, not to expand.
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Apologies, we're at 14 now and I thought it was about adding USC, ASU, Oregon, and Washington, which would be 18 (not 16). But your post it looks like also says add Stanford and Colorado, so yes 20 then.

Adding both USC and Stanford, as much as it is a completely irrelevant and wishful thinking point .... Notre Dame is locked into playing both every year, so they can rotate going out to SoCal and NorCal every other year. So if the Big Ten ever wanted a shot at adding ND ... Just saying. Makes sense in many ways.


All I was trying to say is: while your analysis is solid and good sanity check, it's always possible that the Big Ten could "force" its way into something like a windfall increase in its TV contract value by playing some cards in the negotiating room (particularly knowing going into it that live TV is dying outside of sports) even when it might not make sense just by adding the current pieces together and averaging.
 



Gophers_4life said:
Apologies, we're at 14 now and I thought it was about adding USC, ASU, Oregon, and Washington, which would be 18 (not 16). But your post it looks like also says add Stanford and Colorado, so yes 20 then.

Adding both USC and Stanford, as much as it is a completely irrelevant and wishful thinking point .... Notre Dame is locked into playing both every year, so they can rotate going out to SoCal and NorCal every other year. So if the Big Ten ever wanted a shot at adding ND ... Just saying. Makes sense in many ways.


All I was trying to say is: while your analysis is solid and good sanity check, it's always possible that the Big Ten could "force" its way into something like a windfall increase in its TV contract value by playing some cards in the negotiating room (particularly knowing going into it that live TV is dying outside of sports) even when it might not make sense just by adding the current pieces together and averaging.
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The entire revenue of Notre Dame football in 2018 year was 119 million dollars.

Indiana will receive an 85-90 million dollar payout for media in 2026.

Obviously Notre dame’s value is going to increase due to inflationary pressure from other leagues. But if you added all Notre Dame revenue to the big ten pot and divided by 15 instead of 14 the payouts increase by like a million per school.

What I’m saying is, you don’t break the conference to get an extra million per school.
Are 8 Notre dame games worth 132 million dollars? Because to take the payouts from 87 million to 90 million those 8 games. Currently NBC pays them less than 30 million per year.
Are 8 Notre dame games and 8 USC games worth 220 million?
That’s over 13 million per game BTW and one of the games is USC vs Indiana and another is Notre dame vs Illinois and another is Notre dame vs western Michigan
 

Some guy said:
The entire revenue of Notre Dame football in 2018 year was 119 million dollars.

Indiana will receive an 85-90 million dollar payout for media in 2026.

Obviously Notre dame’s value is going to increase due to inflationary pressure from other leagues. But if you added all Notre Dame revenue to the big ten pot and divided by 15 instead of 14 the payouts increase by like a million per school.

What I’m saying is, you don’t break the conference to get an extra million per school.
Are 8 Notre dame games worth 132 million dollars? Because to take the payouts from 87 million to 90 million those 8 games. Currently NBC pays them less than 30 million per year.
Are 8 Notre dame games and 8 USC games worth 220 million?
That’s over 13 million per game BTW and one of the games is USC vs Indiana and another is Notre dame vs Illinois and another is Notre dame vs western Michigan
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I largely agree with everything you're saying.

I will continue to simply say that it is possible for the value of something to suddenly become more than the sum of the value of its parts, even far beyond what makes any reasonable sense.

Not saying that such hopes and prayers should be the basis for a decision.

Highly doubt the Big Ten would make a radical change, like inviting 4-6 PAC schools into the conference without first having assurance from their TV partners that such a move would be rewarded with more $$$ per school per year. I assume such discussions are what has nipped the Alliance scheduling in the bud.
 

Gophers_4life said:
I largely agree with everything you're saying.

I will continue to simply say that it is possible for the value of something to suddenly become more than the sum of the value of its parts, even far beyond what makes any reasonable sense.

Not saying that such hopes and prayers should be the basis for a decision.

Highly doubt the Big Ten would make a radical change, like inviting 4-6 PAC schools into the conference without first having assurance from their TV partners that such a move would be rewarded with more $$$ per school per year. I assume such discussions are what has nipped the Alliance scheduling in the bud.
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And I would argue “superconferences” being more valuable than the sum of their parts is pretty faulty and the opposite might actually be true.

If you destroy the regionality of the college game, there are fewer casual fans who are interested at all.


The game isn’t as high of a level as the nfl
If the blue blood programs become a “super league” essentially it is just a minor league nfl.

Yet somehow more people watch college hoops than the G league
 

Some guy said:
And I would argue “superconferences” being more valuable than the sum of their parts is pretty faulty and the opposite might actually be true.

If you destroy the regionality of the college game, there are fewer casual fans who are interested at all.


The game isn’t as high of a level as the nfl
If the blue blood programs become a “super league” essentially it is just a minor league nfl.

Yet somehow more people watch college hoops than the G league
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I think we've unofficially reached the point of minor league NFL already with NIL and transfer portal.

I think the only minor league that does better than college is baseball. Hockey is hard to compare because there are leagues spread around the world.
 



Word said:
I think we've unofficially reached the point of minor league NFL already with NIL and transfer portal.

I think the only minor league that does better than college is baseball. Hockey is hard to compare because there are leagues spread around the world.
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So then it should be interesting to see how crowds and TV ratings are for the major programs.

If they don't take a significant hit, then that might be a point in the discussion that players no longer being amateurs will kill off interest in (what makes special) college football.
 


Yes USC UCLA and at least Oregon are worth 90mil+ in tv revenue... Why even doubt that
 



Gophers_4life said:
I largely agree with everything you're saying.

I will continue to simply say that it is possible for the value of something to suddenly become more than the sum of the value of its parts, even far beyond what makes any reasonable sense.

Not saying that such hopes and prayers should be the basis for a decision.

Highly doubt the Big Ten would make a radical change, like inviting 4-6 PAC schools into the conference without first having assurance from their TV partners that such a move would be rewarded with more $$$ per school per year. I assume such discussions are what has nipped the Alliance scheduling in the bud.
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I sense there is also a pull to align with Pac12 teams to somehow preserve the Rose Bowl. Both conferences see that has a touchstone and want to go to whatever lengths to preserve it somehow, someway.
 



Plato said:
The Morality Police are out in force.
Someone finds a little heterosexual banter very threatening.
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Maybe college girls is to old for him if he is liberal, they like the 4-7 year age area now days!
 

Might this make the B1G East even more advantaged? I imagine the Eastern time zone teams would stay in one division while the Central time zone teams would be more often traveling the jet lagging distances to play inter division games on the West coast. Although if we added at least 4 teams to total 18, maybe there would be 3 divisions, and the best 2/3 division champs (have to invent more tiebreakers!) would play CCG.
 

Catechol said:
Might this make the B1G East even more advantaged? I imagine the Eastern time zone teams would stay in one division while the Central time zone teams would be more often traveling the jet lagging distances to play inter division games on the West coast. Although if we added at least 4 teams to total 18, maybe there would be 3 divisions, and the best 2/3 division champs (have to invent more tiebreakers!) would play CCG.
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PJ's track record against MST and PST teams is pretty good...
 

Catechol said:
Not appealing for teams to travel that far west and south to So Cal. More than twice as far as the east-west span of the current conference and would span 3 time zones instead of one. That’s also not appealing for game times. Even a western division would span 2 extra time zones and would be about 3x the mile span of the current division. Would be nice to have UCLA/USC come up for late November games though!
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It reminds of old AL West Twins constantly playing in the wee hours of the morning on the West Coast. Early Wild schedules too. That sucked.
 

Off-GridTNgopher said:
Yes USC UCLA and at least Oregon are worth 90mil+ in tv revenue... Why even doubt that
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Because if those 3 are worth 270 million in distributable revenue per year it means:
Colorado
Arizona
Arizona state
Utah
Cal
Stanford
Washington
Washington state
Oregon state

Combine to be worth -12 million dollars worth of content. That’s why.


And if those 3 are worth 270 million in revenue you increase big ten payouts by around 900k. So you break the conference for 900k. Congrats.
 

Which is based on ratings of games like Oregon vs Cal, UCLA vs Washington St, and USC vs Arizona.

What about the ratings (value) of games like Oregon vs Michigan, UCLA vs Penn St, and USC vs Ohio St?

:cool:
 

Word said:
I think we've unofficially reached the point of minor league NFL already with NIL and transfer portal.

I think the only minor league that does better than college is baseball. Hockey is hard to compare because there are leagues spread around the world.
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Until people are paid by the universities I don’t really agree with this take
Gophers_4life said:
Which is based on ratings of games like Oregon vs Cal, UCLA vs Washington St, and USC vs Arizona.

What about the ratings (value) of games like Oregon vs Michigan, UCLA vs Penn St, and USC vs Ohio St?

:cool:
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every penn state vs ucla game you play costs you a Penn state vs Nebraska or Iowa.


6-4 UCLA against 7-3 Michigan state isn’t going to garner a rose bowl rating on a random weekend in early November
 


RoseGoldy said:
Iowa state and Kansas please
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There is a large difference between what I want and what is likely.



Would love it if the conference expanded enough so we ended with 2 11 team divisions and ours was the original big 10 with a 10 game division schedule plus a crossover matched on where you finish.

Big ten division / coasts division
Michigan / oregon
Ohio state / Pitt
Iowa / UCLA
Michigan state / North Carolina
Minnesota / Maryland
Wisconsin / rutgers
Purdue / USC
Penn state / Virginia
Illinois / Colorado
Indiana / Washington
Northwestern / nebraska

But that’s not happening
 

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