7-0 when we roll into Iowa City....

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FWIW, here's how FPI sees the schedule:

gophersched.JPG

Not that FPI is perfect, or even good, but it's helpful in that it takes into account other team's personnel changes in ways that the average fan cannot. I, for one, would not pretend to be qualified to discuss MTSU.

Chances of 7-0: 7.6%
Chances of winning 6 games other than OrSU: 19.9%

I think the second number tells the real story. You can be favored in every game and still have a reasonably low chance of winning all of them. Even if you quibble with the individual numbers and change both Purdue and Maryland to be 90%, it'd still be only 37% to win those 6 games.

Ohio State is a great example. Of their first 7 games they're above 95% to win each of them with the exception of OU. And yet their odds of winning all 7 are only 63%.

Of course, teams go undefeated most years, and so those small percentages do hit occasionally. But they hit probably about as often as the stats would project in aggregate.
 

So if we beat OSU again it counts this time? Sweet!


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Per Bill Connelly, last year WMU had a 0.4% chance of winning 13 games based on his algorithm that takes into account past performance, returning production, recruiting rankings. They were projected at 8.5 victories I believe. MN at 7.5 last year.

I expect Fleck to do more with less. He's translated his improbable 2016 run into a big payday. If we beat OSU that probability shoots very high to go 7-0.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Per Bill Connelly, last year WMU had a 0.4% chance of winning 13 games based on his algorithm that takes into account past performance, returning production, recruiting rankings. They were projected at 8.5 victories I believe. MN at 7.5 last year.

I expect Fleck to do more with less. He's translated his improbable 2016 run into a major paycut. If we beat OSU that probability shoots very high to go 7-0.
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FIFY. :p

We have as good a chance as we have ever had of going 7 and 0 to start the year. OSU will be first major test, but I have confidence in the team and coaches to go to Corvallis and get a victory. None of the other games are gimmes, but again I have confidence that the team and coaches can make it happen or at least come very close to making 7 and 0 a reality. Ski-U-Mah!
 

GFBfan said:
FIFY. :p

We have as good a chance as we have ever had of going 7 and 0 to start the year. OSU will be first major test, but I have confidence in the team and coaches to go to Corvallis and get a victory. None of the other games are gimmes, but again I have confidence that the team and coaches can make it happen or at least come very close to making 7 and 0 a reality. Ski-U-Mah!
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There might be more Gopher fans in Corvallis than OSU fans. Wine and the Gophers is a big draw.
 




dpodoll68 said:
This is very obviously wrong. Why do you say such random nonsensical things like this?
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[emoji57]
959e74bcc59aa3f0a1e7108b76412b35.jpg
 





justthefacts said:
FWIW, here's how FPI sees the schedule:

View attachment 4867

Not that FPI is perfect, or even good, but it's helpful in that it takes into account other team's personnel changes in ways that the average fan cannot. I, for one, would not pretend to be qualified to discuss MTSU.

Chances of 7-0: 7.6%
Chances of winning 6 games other than OrSU: 19.9%

I think the second number tells the real story. You can be favored in every game and still have a reasonably low chance of winning all of them. Even if you quibble with the individual numbers and change both Purdue and Maryland to be 90%, it'd still be only 37% to win those 6 games.

Ohio State is a great example. Of their first 7 games they're above 95% to win each of them with the exception of OU. And yet their odds of winning all 7 are only 63%.

Of course, teams go undefeated most years, and so those small percentages do hit occasionally. But they hit probably about as often as the stats would project in aggregate.
Click to expand...

what website is this? I just can't see Oregon State as the favorites.
 

Pompous Elitist said:
Per Bill Connelly, last year WMU had a 0.4% chance of winning 13 games based on his algorithm that takes into account past performance, returning production, recruiting rankings. They were projected at 8.5 victories I believe. MN at 7.5 last year.

I expect Fleck to do more with less. He's translated his improbable 2016 run into a big payday. If we beat OSU that probability shoots very high to go 7-0.
Click to expand...

I think you're exactly right that we'll know much more after the OSU game. I think FPI treats the games as independent events, but of course we gain information each an event happens and wins boost confidence making wins later more likely (these aren't coin tosses).
 






PMWinSTP said:
Exactly. Add Mike Riley. There's this unsupported assumption that you have to be a big personality and super media savvy to run a successful P5 football program. It's great the attention locally and nationally hiring Fleck has brought, but it does not win games.
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pretty much everyone mentioned...wins and they win consistently...that is what I am still looking for with the minny--a good year here and there are nice, but until it becomes consistent, I will take a low key coach who wins versus a coach that is all talk, and I hate to say it, PJ is raising the bar of expectations, if they are not met, a lot of disappointed fans will be dejected. I think we could get to double digit wins this year, but based on our history...who the heck knows
 

GFBfan said:
It should be a good test for the Gophers and an exciting game.
On the plus side we have a game before that, which should help get whoever the QB is along with any first time starters some good game reps prior to OSU. Give the team and coaches a chance to evaluate and correct any issues as well.
Since the first game is against Buffalo, we should be able to hold back some of what we do on both Off. and Def. that OSU will not be ready for.
OSU has two games, which gives us two chances to scout them and their personnel, while they will only have one game to look at what we do.
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Good points!

How many games does everyone have the Beavs winning this year?
 






Oregon Gopher said:
His cupboard was barer than Kill's- was a mid-level D2 team the first year on defense


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Do you think the four to five wins is a realistic estimate for them?
Are they returning a decent QB?
 

WorkingMyTailOff said:
Do you think the four to five wins is a realistic estimate for them?
Are they returning a decent QB?
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6 wins would be a good year. The QB position battle resembles ours with no absolute coronation occurring until the fall. There's a JUCO guy who may be the front runner but really is up in the year with 3 serious candidates out of a pool of 5.


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OSU class last year ranked 51 on 247. They brought in 4 more JC transfers, so it still looks like they've a quality problem at some positions.
 

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