5 Days Until Selection Sunday, 13 At-Large Bids Still Available

[SelectionSunday]

Bold/italic double ** denotes already earned automatic bid.

Automatic Bid/Highest Remaining Seed (32)
1 Vermont
2 Cincinnati
3 Virginia
4 **Lipscomb
5 Rhode Island
6 Xavier
7 Montana
8 **Radford
9 **Michigan
10 Kansas
11 UC-Davis
12 College of Charleston
13 Middle Tennessee
14 Wright State
15 Harvard
16 **Iona
17 Buffalo
18 Hampton
19 **Loyola-Chicago
20 Nevada
21 Wagner
22 **Murray State
23 Arizona
24 Bucknell
25 Auburn
26 **NC-Greensboro
27 Southeastern Louisiana
28 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
29 South Dakota State
30 Louisiana
31 Gonzaga
32 New Mexico State

Locks (23) -- RPI noted in parentheses.
1 Villanova (2)
2 Duke (4)
3 North Carolina (6)
4 Tennessee (9)
5 Purdue (10)
6 Clemson (11)
7 Wichita State (12)
8 Michigan State (15)
9 Kentucky (17)
10 Houston (19)
11 TCU (20)
12 Saint Bonaventure (21)
13 Texas Tech (22)
14 Ohio State (23)
15 Texas A&M (24)
16 Miami (25)
17 Seton Hall (27)
18 Arkansas (30)
19 West Virginia (31)
20 Missouri (33)
21 Florida (38)
22 Virginia Tech (51)
23 NC State (53)

On The Doorstep: 1 More Win & They're A Lock (4)
1 Creighton (35) -- currently IN
2 Oklahoma (37) -- IN
3 Providence (42) -- IN
4 Florida State (44) -- IN

Squarely On The Bubble (14)
1 USC (34) -- LAST 4 IN
2 UCLA (36) -- IN
3 Syracuse (39) -- FIRST 4 OUT
4 Boise State (41) -- LAST 4 IN
5 Saint Mary's (43) -- IN
6 Butler (45) -- LAST 4 IN
7 Utah (47) -- OUT
8 Texas (48) -- IN
9 Marquette (57) -- FIRST 4 OUT
10 Alabama (58) -- IN
11 Arizona State (59) -- IN
12 Kansas State (62) -- LAST 4 IN
13 Washington (63) -- FIRST 4 OUT
14 Oklahoma State (88) -- FIRST 4 OUT

Need At Least 2 Conference Tourney Wins To Have A Shot (5)
1 Louisville (46)
2 Baylor (61)
3 Notre Dame (69)
4 Oregon (70)
5 Mississippi State (72)

Wing And A Prayer (2)
1 Nebraska (64)
2 Penn State (77)

 

[SelectionSunday]

4 Days Until Selection Sunday, Still At 13 Available At-Large Bids

Updated through Tuesday, March 6.

Last 4 In: Boise State (41), Saint Mary's (44), Butler (46), Kansas State (64)

First 4 Out: Syracuse (37), Utah (49), Marquette (56), Baylor (59)

Bold/italic double ** denotes already earned automatic bid.

Automatic Bid/Highest Remaining Seed (32)
1 Vermont
2 Cincinnati
3 Virginia
4 **Lipscomb
5 Rhode Island
6 Xavier
7 Montana
8 **Radford
9 **Michigan
10 Kansas
11 UC-Davis
12 **College of Charleston
13 Middle Tennessee
14 **Wright State
15 Harvard
16 **Iona
17 Buffalo
18 Hampton
19 **Loyola-Chicago
20 Nevada
21 **LIU
22 **Murray State
23 Arizona
24 Bucknell
25 Auburn
26 **NC-Greensboro
27 Southeastern Louisiana
28 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
29 **South Dakota State
30 Louisiana
31 **Gonzaga
32 New Mexico State

Locks (23) -- RPI noted in parentheses.
1 Villanova (2)
2 Duke (4)
3 North Carolina (6)
4 Purdue (9)
5 Tennessee (10)
6 Clemson (11)
7 Wichita State (12)
8 Michigan State (15)
9 Kentucky (17)
10 Houston (19)
11 TCU (20)
12 Texas Tech (21)
13 Saint Bonaventure (22)
14 Ohio State (23)
15 Texas A&M (24)
16 Miami (26)
17 Seton Hall (28)
18 Arkansas (30)
19 West Virginia (31)
20 Missouri (33)
21 Florida (39)
22 Virginia Tech (51)
23 NC State (54)

On The Doorstep: 1 More Win & They're A Lock (4)
1 Creighton (34) -- currently IN
2 Oklahoma (36) -- IN
3 Providence (43) -- IN
4 Florida State (45) -- IN

Squarely On The Bubble (12)
1 USC (35) -- IN
2 Syracuse (37) -- OUT
3 UCLA (38) -- IN
4 Boise State (41) -- IN
5 Saint Mary's (44) -- IN
6 Butler (46) -- IN
7 Texas (48) -- IN
8 Utah (49) -- OUT
9 Alabama (57) -- IN
10 Arizona State (58) -- IN
11 Baylor (59) -- OUT
12 Kansas State (64) -- IN

Need 1 More Win To Have A Shot (5)
1 Louisville (47)
2 Marquette (56)
3 Notre Dame (70)
4 Washington (63)
5 Oklahoma State (89)

Need 2 More Wins To Have A Shot (2)
1 Oregon (68)
2 Mississippi State (72)

Wing And A Prayer (2)
1 Nebraska (61)
2 Penn State (77)
___________________________

NIT Automatic Bids
1 Rider (69)
2 Wagner (108)
3 Northern Kentucky (112)
4 NC-Asheville (128)
5 Florida Gulf Coast (169)

 

[GophersInIowa]

I'm trying to understand why Notre Dame has much of a chance. The ESPN talking heads seem to be obsessed with them.

 

[SelectionSunday]

I'm trying to understand why Notre Dame has much of a chance. The ESPN talking heads seem to be obsessed with them.

Notre Dame getting into the NCAA Tournament has become one of ESPN's many agendas.

In my opinion the Irish have no chance unless they beat Virginia Tech today and Duke tomorrow. Anything short of that and it's not really a legitimate discussion.

 

[bizzle22]

Looks like we currently differ on 2. I have Syracuse and Louisville in over Providence and Bama.

Last 4 in: Louisville, Texas, Boise St, Kansas St
First 4 out: Providence, Marquette, W Kentucky, Alabama

 

[SelectionSunday]

Looks like we currently differ on 2. I have Syracuse and Louisville in over Providence and Bama.

Last 4 in: Louisville, Texas, Boise St, Kansas St
First 4 out: Providence, Marquette, W Kentucky, Alabama

Always like seeing other projections, thanks.

Big East bubble is big. Some very significant quarterfinal results coming tomorrow.

 

[SelectionSunday]

As we approach Selection Sunday, a refresher on my at-large projection numbers

A history, so to speak, of my at-large projections dating back to when it all started, the 1991-92 season (think Christian Laettner/Duke & Michigan/Fab 5). I've also kept track how I've done projecting the at-larges (I don't do seeding, not my thing) vs. Joe Lunardi (ESPN) and Jerry Palm (CBS) since the 2010-11 season when the NCAA field expanded to 68 teams. Since that time, Palm has the leg up. Palm has correctly pegged 246 of the 255 at-larges (96.5%), while Lunardi and I both are at 244 of 255 (95.7%).

One thing I do have on both? Since the expansion to 68, I've been perfect on two occasions, Palm and Lunardi once each.

Projecting At-Larges (1991-92 through 2016-17)
1991-92: 33/34
1992-93: 31/34
1993-94: 30/34
1994-95: 30/34
1995-96: 33/34
1996-97: 31/34
1997-98: 30/34
1998-99: 31/34
1999-00: 32/34
2000-01: 34/34 -- perfect --
2001-02: 33/34
2002-03: 33/34
2003-04: 31/34
2004-05: 32/34
2005-06: 31/34
2006-07: 32/34
2007-08: 33/34
2008-09: 34/34 -- perfect --
2009-10: 33/34
2010-11: 35/37
2011-12: 36/37
2012-13: 36/37
2013-14: 36/36 – perfect --
2014-15: 33/36
2015-16: 32/36
2016-17: 36/36 – perfect --
Totals: 851/901 (94.5%)

Since the field expanded to 68 teams:

Jerry Palm (CBS) At-Large Projections
2010-11: 35/37 (St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; UAB/USC in instead)
2011-12: 35/37 (Northwestern/Seton Hall; Iona/NC State in instead)
2012-13: 36/37 (Tennessee; Middle Tennessee in instead)
2013-14: 35/36 (SMU; NC State in instead)
2014-15: 35/36 (Colorado State/UCLA in instead)
2015-16: 34/36 (Monmouth/Saint Bonaventure; Tulsa/Vanderbilt in instead)
2016-17: 36/36 – perfect --
Since Field of 68: 246/255 (96.5%)

SS At-Large Projections
2010-11: 35/37 (Colorado/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
2012-13: 36/37 (Kentucky; La Salle in instead)
2013-14: 36/36 – perfect --
2014-15: 33/36 (Colorado State/Old Dominion/Temple; BYU/Indiana/UCLA in instead)
2015-16: 32/36: (Monmouth/Saint Bonaventure/Saint Mary’s/San Diego State; Syracuse/Tulsa/Vanderbilt/Wichita State in instead)
2016-17: 36/36 – perfect --
Since Field of 68: 244/255 (95.7%)

Joe Lunardi (ESPN) At-Large Projections
2010-11: 34/37 (Colorado/St. Mary’s/Virginia Tech; Georgia/UAB/VCU in instead)
2011-12: 36/37 (Seton Hall; Iona in instead)
2012-13: 37/37 – perfect --
2013-14: 35/36 (SMU; NC State in instead)
2014-15: 34/36 (Colorado State/Temple; Indiana/UCLA in instead)
2015-16: 33/36 (Saint Bonaventure/Saint Mary’s/San Diego State Syracuse/Tulsa/Vanderbilt in instead)
2016-17: 35/36 (Syracuse/USC in instead)
Since Field of 68: 244/255 (95.7%)

If you're so inclined, follow me on Twitter @Fieldof68Freak.