45% of players who entered the portal this year will not play NCAA basketball in the upcoming 2023-24 season.

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fan of Ray Williams said:
That’s an amazing percentage.
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I suppose like all data, it needs to be analyzed in its details. How many of the 45% were grad transfers hoping for another year but realistically knowing there wasn’t much of a chance? How many were run off from their scholarships? How many were delusional enough to think they were much than they really are? Regardless, that’s a lot of guys who likely gave up completing a free college degree. I have to believe that will result in some serious regret.
 



Holy Man said:
I suppose like all data, it needs to be analyzed in its details. How many of the 45% were grad transfers hoping for another year but realistically knowing there wasn’t much of a chance? How many were run off from their scholarships?
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Always glad that Richard never ran off Gas or Bakary
Holy Man said:
How many were delusional enough to think they were much than they really are? Regardless, that’s a lot of guys who likely gave up completing a free college degree. I have to believe that will result in some serious regret.
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Holy Man said:
I suppose like all data, it needs to be analyzed in its details. How many of the 45% were grad transfers hoping for another year but realistically knowing there wasn’t much of a chance? How many were run off from their scholarships? How many were delusional enough to think they were much than they really are? Regardless, that’s a lot of guys who likely gave up completing a free college degree. I have to believe that will result in some serious regret.
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Yes. I’d describe as rational when you break it down and factor in the covid year.

This includes the list of guys who are intentionally trying to transfer down or keep the free college dream alive, not just guys who think they are better than their circumstances.
 




45% is a crazy big number. Don't you figure despite what it says some of those guys play DII?
And, curious...where did all the replacements come from? Most teams don't focus on freshmen.

I only find two twitter guys with this info. Color me skeptical. I think it's also maybe a bookkeeping thing. That's 700 or so players. Most of them are going to play somewhere....no?

How we replacing these 700 guys? All high school players? 700 European players? We got one.
 
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You do kinda want to see the metadata. Did some kids go Juco? How many? Did some kids drop down to D2 or even D3? How many? And how many grad transfers just decided to retire due to medical or life reasons?
 
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restovich said:
You do kinda want to see the metadata. Did some kids go Juco? How many? Did soem kids drop down to D 2 or even D3? How many? And how many grad transfers jsut decided to retire due to medical or life reasons?
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But if they dropped do to D2, D3, or Juco was that really what they had in mind when entering the portal?
 

restovich said:
You do kinda want to see the metadata. Did some kids go Juco? How many? Did soem kids drop down to D 2 or even D3? How many? And how many grad transfers jsut decided to retire due to medical or life reasons?
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And if you leave your team for medical or life reasons, why enter the portal?
 



SelectionSunday said:
No sympathy for them whatsoever.

You (players) wanted free agency, you got it.
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I'm sure there are some in that 45% that were essentially pushed out too though. And I'm sure there are some guys that put themselves in the portal that end up deciding to go pro.
 


restovich said:
You do kinda want to see the metadata. Did some kids go Juco? How many? Did soem kids drop down to D 2 or even D3? How many? And how many grad transfers jsut decided to retire due to medical or life reasons?
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Yeah, gotta think it is not well tracked in terms of guys going to D2/D3 stuff like that. The retirement angle is legit as well.

Still, shows that grass is not always greener and going into the portal doesn't guarantee you a good landing spot somewhere else. It probably isn't 45% but there is most likely a decent percentage of guys that are not happy with how it all played out for them in the portal.
 

It was about 10% the year before so, if true, this is a huge jump.
 

Dakota2 said:
And if you leave your team for medical or life reasons, why enter the portal?
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Lots of scenarios. Think Northwestern situation. Think of a coach who is trying to run you off. Lots of reasons to transfer....the girl you thought you were going to marry is now dating your teammate. Million reasons young people would enter the portal.

I will bet there is a decent number who thought they would get NIL money at transfer school X where the whole team gets a monthly stipend versus the nothing they got where they were at.
 

Just went through the first 2 pages of the Division 2 transfers on Verbal Commits. Of the first 500 players listed, 267 have not yet hooked up with another team yet. I'm not sure how accurate that is in that at the D-2 level, some Sports Information Depts. take the summer off and not all coaches make any type of announcement to the press until either school starts and the player is enrolled. Some even wait until official fall practice starts and they see who shows up before making it official.

On another note, I saw that our old friend Sam Freeman showed up on the (D-2) San Bernadino roster as a transfer. Sam spent a couple of years at U of Pacific. San Bernadino made the D-2 Elite 8 last year. They have a new head coach, Gus Argenal, who worked closely with Eric Musselman in Nevada and Arkansas.
 


There was always attrition, every one of those players that just left programs in the past, entered the portal.

Additionally, if this is the new system, programs have to be allowed to push kids out. You cannot compete with programs bringing in influxes of talent every year if you don’t push the non-contributors out.

Essentially, if the players want freedom to move they have to deal with the fact that the schools have the obligation to replace you. It’s great for good players, but rough on those career bench players
 

The situation was different before I retired, because players most times had to sit out a year transferring between Div. 1 schools. But when I taught at an NAIA school, there were plenty of former Div 1 players coming through. For many of them this was their 3rd stop. They were generally marginal players (at least compared to their teammates at ther first school) and more often than not had off-field issues, often academic. So, a marginal player who can't stay academically eligible ( or has a dui or other issue) is not going to be attractive to another D1 program.

There are a lot of players like this, but we don't really notice them. They don't get the publicity unless their behavior is so egregious that it can't be ignored The sad thing is, many of them are convinced they can make it in the pros and will cite players like Dennis Rodman and Rick Mahorn as evidence on their behalf.

Like I said, many are already behind academically, and the lower level of schools often have more partial than full scholarships, so these players' likelihood of graduating is pretty low, no matter how much I or anybody else try to convince them that they need that degree as a backup plan.
 


Who TF is Howie Schwab?

Gonna need to see something more sourced than a random tweet.
 




restovich said:
You do kinda want to see the metadata. Did some kids go Juco? How many? Did some kids drop down to D2 or even D3? How many? And how many grad transfers just decided to retire due to medical or life reasons?
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Great take! While there are certainly some players who ended up without a chair when the music stopped...the portal has worked very well for those who ('Go Juco?.....drop down to D2 or even D3?)...or transferred up, or got NIL, or went pro (even if way 'off Broadway'...getting paid to play ball is a pretty good lot in life). The portal has been good to the players, as it should be
 

Theres bound to be a % that doesnt land, but definitely a higher % with the pandemic extra year waiver. 3000(ish?) players = 3000 extra years of spontanous surplus eligibility! Quality and the allure of a younger player's untapped potential will see a lot of the surplus player be replaced over this 4/5 year span.

It's super easy to restock, especially with the level of high school/aau/international talent out there...

Throw in the mentally crushing path of high school studs being the 13th man in college, and I can see why someone with a more fresh/positive might be a better option. "Transferring" might also be an easier message to tell parents than "I'm quitting"
 

NYtoWItoMN said:
Theres bound to be a % that doesnt land, but definitely a higher % with the pandemic extra year waiver. 3000(ish?) players = 3000 extra years of spontanous surplus eligibility! Quality and the allure of a younger player's untapped potential will see a lot of the surplus player be replaced over this 4/5 year span.

It's super easy to restock, especially with the level of high school/aau/international talent out there...

Throw in the mentally crushing path of high school studs being the 13th man in college, and I can see why someone with a more fresh/positive might be a better option. "Transferring" might also be an easier message to tell parents than "I'm quitting"
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The number of portal players doesn’t seem to be decreasing as the number of extra COVID year eligibility players decreases.

I think the COVID year was kindling to the fire, but it’s all about the free transfer year,
 

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