25 Stone Cold NCAA Tournament Locks + Those On The Doorstep

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SelectionSunday

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Heading into the weekend (Friday), here's how my NCAA Tournament field is shaping up. I've put teams into 2 groups:

(1) Stone cold locks: These teams are locked into the Field of 68 even if they lose all their remaining regular season games.

(2) On or close to the doorstep: These teams aren't quite there, but will cement their place in the Field of 68 by winning 1 or 2 of their remaining regular season games.

Please note that for teams on the doorstep, I have taken into consideration the strength (or lack thereof) of their remaining opponents. So it's not just the wins, it's who they come against. Ditto for the losses.

So if a current bubble team is not listed here, at the very best they'll likely need to do "some work" in their conference tournament.

Teams are listed in alphabetical order.

STONE COLD LOCKS (25)
1 Alabama
2 Arizona
3 Arkansas
4 Auburn
5 Baylor
6 Colorado State
7 Duke
8 Gonzaga
9 Houston
10 Illinois
11 Kansas
12 Kentucky
13 Murray
14 Ohio State
15 Providence
16 Purdue
17 Saint Mary's
18 Tennessee
19 Texas
20 Texas Tech
21 UCLA
22 UConn
23 USC
24 Villanova
25 Wisconsin

ON OR CLOSE TO THE DOORSTEP (12)
1 Boise
2 Creighton
3 Iowa
4 Iowa State
5 LSU
6 Marquette
7 Miami-Florida
8 Michigan
9 Michigan State
10 Notre Dame
11 Oregon
12 Seton Hall
 
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Colorado State as a lock cool no quibbling there. You show Boise St on the doorstep, but in that category Wyoming probably belongs as well.
 




Is it good that my 3 bets I have open to make the final 4 are all in the 2nd group? 🤣
 

I'd have Boise as a lock, I think. Also wondering how Wyoming didn't make the list. It's probably my bias in seeing a lot of Mountain West games late at night this season, but the conference looks tough for a non Power 5. They have a ncie TV package for a non Power 5 too.
 

dlnavra said:
Colorado State as a lock cool no quibbling there. You show Boise St on the doorstep, but in that category Wyoming probably belongs as well.
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You definitely have a valid point. Wyoming and North Carolina were the teams I had the most trouble deciding.
 




Holy Man said:
I'd have Boise as a lock, I think. Also wondering how Wyoming didn't make the list. It's probably my bias in seeing a lot of Mountain West games late at night this season, but the conference looks tough for a non Power 5. They have a ncie TV package for a non Power 5 too.
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In the end, I think Boise, Colorado State, and Wyoming will be in with ease. San Diego State is a true bubble team. Aztecs could go either way.
 

I am very curious about IowaSt. If they lose both road games, they go 7-11 in league play. They have 2 wins over teams definitely in the field (Texas & TexasTech, both at home). In NC play, they beat Creighton, Xavier, Iowa, and Memphis--good enough teams but none are complete locks.

If they end up as the 6 for the B12 tourney and drop their opening game??? That is a tricky resume. I would guess they get in, but rewarding a team 5 games under in league play seems a stretch.
 

I am very curious about IowaSt. If they lose both road games, they go 7-11 in league play. They have 2 wins over teams definitely in the field (Texas & TexasTech, both at home). In NC play, they beat Creighton, Xavier, Iowa, and Memphis--good enough teams but none are complete locks.
obobo55 said:
If they end up as the 6 for the B12 tourney and drop their opening game??? That is a tricky resume. I would guess they get in, but rewarding a team 5 games under in league play seems a stretch.
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I think 7-11 gets them in even without a win in Big XII tourney. Too many good wins to ignore, and really no bad losses.
 




I also think fortunes may change a bit for Creighton, losing their guard Ryan Nembhard this week to a wrist injury. They have a tough 3 game stretch coming up. I guess 19-11 and 11-8 in conference would probably get them in, but who knows if they crash in the conf tourney.
 

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