247 Composite vs 247 Scores

[skyman31]

I was browsing through the Gopher's recruiting class tonight and noticed an interesting trend. A lot of our guys seem to be rated higher by 247 than by the composite score. I'm not sure if one or the other is often thought to be more accurate (not trying to start an argument about the accuracy of recruiting rankings...), but I'm pretty sure that 247 updates their scores much more regularly than the other services, and therefore might be a more accurate measure at this point in time.

I thought I'd look at the numbers and see just how big of a difference it really was.

To summarize - out of our 23 signed recruits (which does not include the punter as he is only rated by 247):

• 16 are rated higher on 247, and 18 are ranked higher
  • 8 of those are "significantly higher" with the difference between their scores being more than a full point
• Of the 7 rated higher in the composite scores:
  • Only 1 player, Jaqwondis Burns, is rated significantly higher in the composite score
  • 2 of the 7 are rated slightly higher in the composite ratings but are actually ranked better in the 247 scores, where all of the players rated higher in 247 are also ranked higher.
• Our average ratings/rankings:
  • 247 - 0.867/791
  • Composite - 0.859/914

The last area that I noticed a big difference was in the top end talent. 247 thinks that the top of our class is much stronger than the composite scores do, with 6 guys in the top 400 as opposed to 2 guys in the top 400 of the composite rankings. Within just the top 10 guys rated by each service, we get the following averages:

• 247 - Rating: 0.887, Ranking: 423.9
• Composite - Rating: 0.8739, Ranking: 593.1

I attached the spreadsheet containing all of the data.

I know that recruiting rankings are far from an exact science, but I'm curious to hear peoples' thoughts about this. Is it just a statistical aberration? PJ loves to fill his classes early, and it seems like he did a great job this year of identifying guys early and getting them to commit before their ratings jumped like Cody Lindenberg, Danny Strigow, and Lucas Finnessey. Doesn't seem like any of the early commits really backfired on us yet by having their stock tank.

 

[hungan1]

The interesting thing is you should plot other recruiting years data and see if there are discerning trends that hold true. Find out how many of the athletes out perform or under perform their ratings by 247, Rivals, and ESPN. See which one has better predictability.

The biggest deal is 247 updates the ratings more frequently as new film or information becomes available. PJ Fleck likes to get commitments early. Rashod Bateman was rated a three star when he committed, but was bumped to a four star late in the recruiting cycle when 247, Rivals, and ESPN updated their evaluations.

Another thing - Fleck is a very savvy recruiter. He evaluates film, but he relies heavily on in person evaluations and intelligence on the character and intangibles other than athletic ability that do not show up on film.

ESPN is very conservative in their ratings. Rivals and ESPN update the ratings on a set schedule with the last ranking coming out of the all star games. Rivals rely on both film and camps.

In spite of all these expert film evaluations, the ratings systems on several occasions totally missed. A two star or low three star may out perform beyond their evaluations. Some four and five stars are duds. Finally, some under-recruited areas or places producing less talent may have hidden gems that are rated too low. Sometimes, one has to wonder about the competition levels where the films came from.

Probability wise, a legitimate five star most likely can have an immediate impact and may start early. The rest can reach a four star or five star potential after going through development programs. PJ Fleck has come out and said that the Gophers are a developmental program.

 

[Pompous Elitist]

I know there is a lot of lobbying by local GI operators to get guys reviewed an re-rated. My question is whether a general grade inflation; rising tide lifts all boats sort of thing is occurring or whether they are demoting as many guys as they are bumping.

I know I’m not alone in rolling the eyes at 247s rating extending to the ten thousandth place as if those are significant. I’m starting to believe relative rankings, ie player vs position group, or player overall ranking, and overall team ranking are probably more significant than the 8561 Vs .8532. Offers...etc particularly recent offers hold weight.

 

[Dano564]

I'm still skeptical on these rankings.
The more I learn about them, the more subjective I believe they are.

But it's the best system out there.

 

[hungan1]

The sum total of it is that there is no mistaking an athlete that is a blue chipper no matter which ratings you use. The trouble is depending on the ratings service, they limit five stars to 30 to 37 players each cycle. Who is to say that on certain years, there are more five star caliber players? This includes four stars and three stars. Take Minnesota instate recruits for instance. There are years where there are many players that are rated as D1, and there are years where it is lucky if you have four or five.

There is also the level of competition which the game films were provided or accessible to the ratings service. Some kid may be burning the carpet against lesser talent. The film evaluators may inadvertently give this kid a higher rating. To some degree, I think it is Rivals - they rely on combines and camps in addition to film for that matter. They are more conservative.

What about areas of the country that are talent rich? Is it possible that because of the sheer numbers of very good players in a certain year that some players are underrated?

At any rate, you have your Blake Cashmans of this world that buck the system. Nothing is perfect. That is why I like the Gophers recruiting strategy that encompass more than reliance on film and in person evaluation. This is more critical to middling teams or those on the rise that they get it right. Investing a scholarship on a highly rated kid that turns out to be a dud can hurt if you are not a PSU or tOSU.

 

[Gold Rush]

For me, the key to this recruiting season was the last week. Going in, we were top heavy with 6 WR's but the shuffling gave us a solid DE, LB, OL and P. Those were recruits that I would expect with a 10-2 record. Remember, we got verbals from just about the entire class before the season even started and really weren't able to benefit from a very nice year until that last week.

 

[hungan1]

Does getting commitments and signing players early more advantageous than waiting? Are the Gophers missing out on some top end talents by doing that?

 

[BeerFueledFF]

Does getting commitments and signing players early more advantageous than waiting? Are the Gophers missing out on some top end talents by doing that?

Likely not missing out on a ton of talent by taking verbals early. There seems to be a general lag effect with the early signing day now, so we can use the hype from 2019 to help recruiting more in the 2021 class.

 

[hungan1]

Reserve your spot now! This boat is moving with or without you.