247: College football's 10 teams set to rise, tumble in 2023 (Set to tumble: Minnesota)

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BleedGopher

BleedGopher

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Per 247:

TUMBLE: MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS​

2022 Record: 9-4

I don’t like betting against P.J. Fleck. He’s quietly among the best coaches in college football and has won nine-plus games in the past three non-COVID seasons with the Gophers. But this does project as a transition year for Minnesota.

The Gophers lose offensive stalwarts Tanner Morgan and Mohamed Ibrahim, along with the entire interior of arguably the nation’s best run blocking O-line. There is some optimism in Minneapolis surrounding new starting quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis and a more pass-heavy offensive identity, but it’s still difficult to shift away from an era so defined by Ibrahim’s bruising production.

I also don’t enjoy betting against Gophers defensive coordinator Joe Rossi, who’s quietly among the best play callers in the sport. But again, Minnesota is losing significant production on every level with some of it departing surprisingly via the transfer portal.

The schedule also isn’t doing Minnesota any favors with cross-division draws against Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State along with tough divisional road games against Iowa and Purdue. Throw in a trip to Chapel Hill Sept. 16, and Minnesota quietly has among the more difficult roads in the Big Ten.

I’d be shocked if Minnesota didn’t reach a bowl. But yet another nine-win season is difficult to project with so many changes and an arduous 12-week path.


Go Gophers!!
 




I could see a 8-4 or even a 7-5 season, but I wouldn’t call it a tumble. No one except us Gopher fans is expecting wins at OSU, NC, or Ioweee. Throw in Michigan at home and your 8-4. Win the rest and it is still a good season. The optimistic me says 9-3. If I had to place a bet I would go with 8-4
 


I'm trying very hard to get my head beyond 7 W's but..........
 

Our defense will be ok, but I’m thinking Kalikmanis is the key to the season - probably not a surprise to anyone that knows the gophers. Probably need to average 30+ points a game to have a realistic shot at beating most teams we play, nearly all w good offenses.
 

Actually, a very fair argument. An 8-4 season would be very solid. 9-3 would be better than any previous 9 win year, IMO.
 

dlw4gophers said:
I could see a 8-4 or even a 7-5 season, but I wouldn’t call it a tumble. No one except us Gopher fans is expecting wins at OSU, NC, or Ioweee. Throw in Michigan at home and your 8-4. Win the rest and it is still a good season. The optimistic me says 9-3. If I had to place a bet I would go with 8-4
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Whether or not we expect wins in any individual one of those 4 games, going 0 for 4 would be pretty disappointing. Obviously, going 8-0 in the other games is no easy task either.
 



watertown 1987 guy n said:
Our defense will be ok, but I’m thinking Kalikmanis is the key to the season - probably not a surprise to anyone that knows the gophers. Probably need to average 30+ points a game to have a realistic shot at beating most teams we play, nearly all w good offenses.
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lmao what? We gave up under 14 points a game and gave up over 30 points once all year.

The teams in the west PPG last year:
Minnesota 28.2
Purdue 26.6
Wisconsin 26.3
Illinois 24.2
Nebraska 22.6
Iowa 17.7
NW 13.8
Against OSU, Michigan and UNC maybe you'll need to score that many (I'd anticipate that the Mich game is going to be a rapid, slog it out game as both teams run the clock). The take we need to average 30 a game to beat most teams is way over the top. Even if we aren't running, we will still be a high TOP driven team.
 

As others have said. Marching last years win total could be difficult but I also don’t think we will finish far off from it so not sure we are really a candidate for a “tumble”.

A tumble to me would be missing a bowl or struggling to reach .500. I don’t see either of those thins happening even with the tougher schedule.
 

MNVCGUY said:
As others have said. Marching last years win total could be difficult but I also don’t think we will finish far off from it so not sure we are really a candidate for a “tumble”.

A tumble to me would be missing a bowl or struggling to reach .500. I don’t see either of those thins happening even with the tougher schedule.
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Yeah. 6-6 or 7-5 would be mildly disappointing.
5-7 or worse is a tumble.

8-4 or 9-3 will be more disappointing because we wanted 10-2
10-2 or better is elite
 

upnorthkid said:
lmao what? We gave up under 14 points a game and gave up over 30 points once all year.

The teams in the west PPG last year:
Minnesota 28.2
Purdue 26.6
Wisconsin 26.3
Illinois 24.2
Nebraska 22.6
Iowa 17.7
NW 13.8
Against OSU, Michigan and UNC maybe you'll need to score that many (I'd anticipate that the Mich game is going to be a rapid, slog it out game as both teams run the clock). The take we need to average 30 a game to beat most teams is way over the top. Even if we aren't running, we will still be a high TOP driven team.
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Great info, I kinda expect every one of those teams to average more points this season w the exception of NW and possibly Illinois. Seems Big10 football may be slowly moving toward more pass football than 3 n a cloud of dust.
 



I never understand why anyone thinks we'll lose to MSU.
 

The schedule is far more difficult than last year's was and their are many holes to fill on both sides of the ball that were previously filled by very experienced players some of whom are in the NFL.
So it is not unreasonable to speculate that the record could be worse this year.
It is also pie in the sky to be certain the record will be better.
 


dlw4gophers said:
I could see a 8-4 or even a 7-5 season, but I wouldn’t call it a tumble. No one except us Gopher fans is expecting wins at OSU, NC, or Ioweee. Throw in Michigan at home and your 8-4. Win the rest and it is still a good season. The optimistic me says 9-3. If I had to place a bet I would go with 8-4
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Same. Team could be as good or even better than last year's squad and we could still have a worse record. Just my opinion.....but that's not really a "tumble" in my mind.
 

Let people sleep on the Gophers again. I see a lot of parallels between this team and the 2019 team, and this team may have even more upside. I will not be surprised if they win 10 in the regular season.
 

I'm optimistic about the "parts" that will constitute the new Gopher "machine." I think that, end-to-end, they have higher top-end capability. That said, I sort of suspect that this year will be a year of watching the parts come together to form a smoothly operating machine. Next year is the year.

The players need to come together in terms of position groups, and in terms of entire units. That takes time in the system. Moreover, the system will probably need time to adapt to its players.

Consider: Mo Ibrahim gained 6 yards or more on one-third of this carries. And his median carry was 4 yards. Given this, you may wonder: why not just hand it off to Mo every time? Wouldn't that mainly work? Yeah. The offensive coordinator noticed that and worked that into his thinking. Now, how do you run the offense when it has higher-end parts, but not the same ability to reliably "move the sticks?" What's the new philosophy?

I just think that this year we'll see the pieces come together. And next year is the year.

On the other hand, although the pieces are new, the new pieces are mainly not freshmen. So maybe this whole thing comes together faster than I expect. That'd be great. But I doubt that will happen. I plan to be happy watching the pieces coming together, knowing next year the Gophers will likely be a Top Ten team.
 

mngolf said:
I never understand why anyone thinks we'll lose to MSU.
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Michigan state is a name that people see as good as Wisconsin and Iowa even though they were really good from 2010-2015 and pretty mediocre outside of that.

Coincidentally 2008-2014 were the richrod and Brady hoke Michigan years.


Removing 2010-2015:
Since 2000
Seasons 8 wins or better 4
Seasons 7 wins or fewer 13
 

Minnesotas’s opponents this year have huge question marks and in some cases roster overhauls and scheme changes that may or may not work out (see Wisconsin).

Could be a 10 or 11 win season, or a 5 or 6 win season. Absolutely no idea, but that’s what makes it fun. Low expectations make things more interesting. Beat Iowa though…
 

I’m guessing 7-5. Solid. Win a bowl go 8-5. It’s fair to question a new QB and losing a great RB and some other good players. I’m really curious if PJ Will significantly alter the play calling and if AK can become a top half QB in his first year as a full time starter.
 

All I know is that every season is tough to predict due to all the intangibles, injuries, player's growth and so forth. I just want them to play good hard football and give it their best shot.
 

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