I don't think this is a black and white deal.
As noted, being "on the hot seat" can mean different things in different situations.
to use a baseball analogy- I would say being on the hot seat is like being in the on-deck circle - you're not at bat yet, but you're close. Likewise, for a FB coach, being on the hot seat does not mean that you are fired, or will be fired - but it means you are closer to being fired.
Let's say coach X goes 7-6 one season, and is generally expected to have a better season. then the coach goes 5-7 and misses a bowl game. he will likely not be fired on the spot, but the AD tells him, "you need to make a bowl game next season to keep your job." That is being on the hot seat.
On the other hand, if Coach X goes from 7-6 to 3-9, and has a major off-field incident, then he might skip the hot seat and be fired on the spot. It all depends on the circumstances, and on the relationship between the coach and AD.
at MN, I think something catastrophic would have to happen for Fleck to ever be on the hot seat or get fired. Like a couple of 2-10 seasons, attendance down to 10,000 a game, and an off-field incident. barring that, Fleck will coach the Gophers as long as he wants to - and/or as long as Coyle is the AD.
So kind of like the attendance at the end of last year.
This really isn’t that hard. The expectations are high for this year. The results in terms of wins and losses have been stellar to date - year one didn’t really count matter per our own head coach. Year two a small step forward with one big win (Wisconsin) two massive “DNP coaches decision” (Nebraska, Illinois).
If we end up .500 or below the pressure on PJ for next season will be immense to produce some thing other than a sound bite.
That doesn’t mean he’ll be fired this year or next. It means if he doesn’t change course keeping his job will be progressively harder.
Some schools have a hair trigger. I suspect the point being poorly made by people who don’t understand the concept of the hot seat is that PJ Fleck has a longer leash than many coaches right now and could stand a few more mediocre years in the hot seat before he’d get fired.
IF we finish .500 +\- 1 game, have another inexplicable drubbing by a team in the bottom half of the conference like last year, he’ll go into the 2020 season on the hot seat.
If similar things transpire in 2020 his seat will be nuclear.
If similar in 2021 he’ll be gone.
That’s a lot of IFs and I’m not saying that scenario is likely at this point, but if it does, don’t be surprised.
Someone pointed out correctly that Fierentz has a history of being “on the hot seat” every few years. There have been a couple in a row, but he’s never been fired. He always finds a way to do what it takes to right the ship and calm the noise.
IF Coyle leaves, that’s when things would really get interesting for Fleck. If he doesn’t get along with the new Pres OR she prefers competence, I think Fleck’s leash gets short more quickly, but that would still likely be at the end of the season 2-3 years from now IF the team is still chugging along at .500
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