2026 Big Ten predictions: Game-by-game picks, projecting every team's final win-loss record (MN: Projected record: 5-7, 3-6)

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It’s not a crazy projection in my opinion, the gophers are more likely to go five and seven than nine and three in the regular season. They have a below average offensive line, a quarterback with promise, a good but injured running back and no wide receivers. They have a good defensive line OK linebackers and an OK secondary

Until they prove pundits wrong, it’s hard to argue

I would personally bet on a six and six regular season.
 

caliGopher said:
So, 15th in the Big is fine on defense now? Our schedule is tougher this year and we struggled to keep Michigan State, Purdue, and Wisconsin in check offensively. That's a 1, 0, and 2-win team in conference.

The defense needs to build on the strengths of last year (sacks and tackles for loss) and figure out a way to stop teams on offense. Whether they have an offense (Ohio State, Oregon - 17 Conference wins) or not (Michigan State and Purdue - 1 conference win between them).

If only we could play Nebraska 9x in conference this year.
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I think you're confused. Minnesota was not 15th in scoring defense in the Big Ten. They were 10th at 22.9 points allowed per game. That's not great (not as good as Fleck's 21, 22, and 24 teams) but it's not bad either. Big Ten teams tend to be good defensive teams overall.

Minnesota WAS 15th in the Big Ten in scoring offense. That's not good at all (102 out of 136 FBS teams) and that really needs to improve significantly. While I think the defense needs to improve a bit, I'm fairly confident that they will. The offense has to improve more and I'm less confident of that.
 

Arminius said:
My mind says 6-6 but my heart says 9-3. My mind is moving slowly closer to 9-3. I'm almost at 7-5...one more week of GopherHole and I'll be there!

(Having fun...love you guys... I really am getting closer to 7-8 wins...GoGophers!)
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Come on over to the 10-2 pool the water is nice and warm!
 




It is really sad to see the state of sports "journalism" at this point. Most of it either seems to be written by fans of a particular program or AI generated. There is definitely little to no review of anything that gets posted based on the constant mistakes and clear lack of any real research being done. The sites just publish it and I assume hope for clicks. It gets really pathetic when there are such glaring mistakes like the one referenced above where it lists Drake as a transfer.
 

Not confused, but unclear.

I was referring to opponents' yards per game, not points per game. The 15th-ranked defense for conference games. That includes 17th in passing yards per game and 11th in rushing. For scoring defense, we were 11th in conference games. 3 spots below Wisconsin, for perspective.

And while there are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics, just check our defensive "Success" against the conference teams we beat, Purdue, Michigan State, and Wisconsin, all were more productive against us than their average for the season. The best job we did defensively was against Nebraska, by far. Rutgers, we held to their season average, after we decided to show up offensively in the 2nd quarter.

If we field a similar defense against a schedule that doesn't appear to include 4 of the B1G's 5 worst teams (based on last year), I don't expect our Conf. W-L record to improve.

Keep in mind that those stats include the fact that we led the B1G in sacks and were second in TFL last year, yet we still dropped considerably in the rankings. We were 6th in 2024.
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Drake will take a step forward this season.
The offensive line will be better than last season.
It appears we may have more depth at WR than possibly ever.
We may have the best Edge rushers in the Big 10.
We have great depth at LB.
A lot of great options in the defensive backfield.
Our kicking game cannot get worse than last year.

Does that still mean 7-5? Possibly.
My guess is 8-4 with the tougher schedule.
If the defensive tackles end up better than anticipated,
I would not be shocked if this ends up being Fleck's best team since he arrived.
The potential is there. 9-3 is certainly possible. We just need to see more consistency.
I do not see 5-7 or 6-6 unless Drake gets hurt and we are terrible in the trenches.
 

gopherbadgerman said:
It’s not a crazy projection in my opinion, the gophers are more likely to go five and seven than nine and three in the regular season. They have a below average offensive line, a quarterback with promise, a good but injured running back and no wide receivers. They have a good defensive line OK linebackers and an OK secondary

Until they prove pundits wrong, it’s hard to argue

I would personally bet on a six and six regular season.
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I would bet on 7-5 but I agree.

I do think 9-3 is more likely than 4-8 though
 





caliGopher said:
If we field a similar defense against a schedule that doesn't appear to include 4 of the B1G's 5 worst teams (based on last year), I don't expect our Conf. W-L record to improve.
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On that I agree but I still maintain that the offense was a bigger problem than the defense.
 

TwistingMyMelon said:
On that I agree but I still maintain that the offense was a bigger problem than the defense.
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I felt like they were totally different.
The defense was either good or bad. Was never in the middle.
The offense was always in the middle or slightly below.


If the gophers are going to be a 9+ regular season win team, they have to run the ball consistently and have balance with the pass.
The gophers haven’t been able to run the ball consistently for two seasons but that passing game was good enough to score some points anyways. I know people didn’t love the pound it 45 times a game offense, but I do feel the last two year the offense didn’t have an identity.
 




PJ Fleck special: 7-5 season with a loss that shouldn't have been a loss.

We can definitely beat Miss State and at Wisc, and I wouldn't put it past them to beat someone else that's a tossup ... but then like I said, find a way to lose a game that prevents it from being a better season.
 

Some guy said:
I felt like they were totally different.
The defense was either good or bad. Was never in the middle.
The offense was always in the middle or slightly below.


If the gophers are going to be a 9+ regular season win team, they have to run the ball consistently and have balance with the pass.
The gophers haven’t been able to run the ball consistently for two seasons but that passing game was good enough to score some points anyways. I know people didn’t love the pound it 45 times a game offense, but I do feel the last two year the offense didn’t have an identity.
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I agree that the defense was erratic last season (after being very good the year before) but I would say the offense mostly was below average throughout the year.

Despite having the same records, the 2024 team was much stronger than the 2025 team by the numbers.

Defensively, the 2024 team was one of Fleck's best (16.9 points per game allowed (9th in FBS); 4.8 yards per play allowed (13th in FBS)). The 2025 defense was, as you say, up and down but was fair on average (22.9 points per game allowed (50th in FBS); 5.4 yards per play allowed (57th in FBS)).

Fleck hasn't had a truly good offensive team since 2019 but the 2025 team was one of his worst. The only Fleck teams to average fewer points per game were 2017 and 2023, two teams with losing seasons. The 2024 team averaged 3.2 more points per game and a half a yard more per play.

I think the 2024 team did have an identity: it was a well above average defensive team with an offense that was lower scoring but moved the chains methodically despite not being able to run the ball well. They did manage to hold the ball for about 3 minutes per game more than the 2025 team.
 


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