2025 NFL Circa Survivor Pool

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

The Circa Survivor contest just continues to grow every year, just amazing. 2023 had a little more than 9,000 entries. Last year, it jumped to 14,200 or so entries. This year, a whopping 18,656 entries for a total prize pool of $18,656,000 up for grabs.

Week 1 selections, I continue to be surprised by some people's strategy. I know the prevailing thought of the more seasoned Survivor players is to not pick the team to win that the masses are going to pick. Week 1, the only ones I really liked at all were Denver and Arizona and am surprised to see those two only made up 60% of the entries.

One minor note for Week 1: Not sure how much smoke there is but Kyler Murray might be a LITTLE under the weather, which has to make the folks picking Arizona sweat a little bit. 36 people picking the Chiefs, in Brazil against the Chargers? WTF??? Besides the fact that the Chargers are actually GOOD, you at least have to think about saving the Chargers for later in the season for the Thanksgiving OR Christmas games, that are treated as individual weeks

 

[Slim Tubby]

I went with WAS in my Eliminator Pool.

 

[TRF Guy]

I already went with the Eagles in my pool

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

I went with WAS in my Eliminator Pool.

I already went with the Eagles in my pool

My strategy is based HEAVILY on QBs and even HC. I'm just almost never, ever ever going to go against a QB that is not like one of the 6-8 worst QBs in the NFL, and pretty much never against anything remotely resembling a "franchise QB".

Slim, personally I wouldn't have gone with WAS purely because Russell Wilson is at least a capable QB, and the Giants defense is going to be really good again. Washington will probably win, but I wouldn't put my Survivor life on it, at least not in Week 1.

Dak gave the Eagles everything they wanted in Week 1 and Dak qualifies as a QB I wouldn't bet my Survivor life on if I don't have to

 

[Spaulding!No!]

PA and Charch!!

 

[Slim Tubby]

My strategy is based HEAVILY on QBs and even HC. I'm just almost never, ever ever going to go against a QB that is not like one of the 6-8 worst QBs in the NFL, and pretty much never against anything remotely resembling a "franchise QB".

Slim, personally I wouldn't have gone with WAS purely because Russell Wilson is at least a capable QB, and the Giants defense is going to be really good again. Washington will probably win, but I wouldn't put my Survivor life on it, at least not in Week 1.

Dak gave the Eagles everything they wanted in Week 1 and Dak qualifies as a QB I wouldn't bet my Survivor life on if I don't have to

I think Wilson was washed 2 years ago and Daboll's offense always starts out slow. I wouldn't be surprised if they bench Wilson as soon as next week in favor of Dart.

I didn't trust the WAS defense but they have way too much talent on offense to lose at home to the Giants. DEN probably had some folks a little nervous today.

 

[upnorthkid]

I think Wilson was washed 2 years ago and Daboll's offense always starts out slow. I wouldn't be surprised if they bench Wilson as soon as next week in favor of Dart.

I didn't trust the WAS defense but they have way too much talent on offense to lose at home to the Giants. DEN probably had some folks a little nervous today.

Picking against the giants, saints, panthers and titans are going to be solid plays all year

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

Picking against the giants, saints, panthers and titans are going to be solid plays all year

The Dolphins and Jets are still going to be pretty bad, although I'm surprised how much trouble the Jets gave the Steelers, and also with how competitive the Titans were against the Broncos.

If the Vikings look good tomorrow and JJM looks really good and they take care of business against the Bears, I'm going to think pretty hard about taking the Vikings next week in Survivor, at home against Atlanta. I think Flores makes Penix's life absolutely miserable at The Bank next week for the Vikings home opener.

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

I think Wilson was washed 2 years ago and Daboll's offense always starts out slow. I wouldn't be surprised if they bench Wilson as soon as next week in favor of Dart.

Wilson WAS washed up a few years ago, but like he showed in PIT last year, he'll win a few games the Giants shouldn't, at least before Dart takes over. There are opposing QBs I'll feel better about going against this season than Wilson, even if he is a bottom 10 QB.

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

Came out of last week unscathed, but had to sweat things out a little bit. With no real major surprises/upsets, most people are moving on to Week 2. Circa Survivor had seem massive carnage in Week 1 in each of the last 4-5 seasons and this year, I think only 2.8% of the entries were eliminated; like 573 out of 18,800 or so

Baltimore is the obvious major chalk pick this week, if you're not worried about having them available later in the season.

The two obvious ones to me are Arizona and Dallas. Arizona scares me a little bit, I have seen them lose to some really bad teams recently at home, and I WAS higher on Carolina and Bryce Young to start the season but they could not have looked much worse. Dak seems to beat up on Bad teams and the NY Giants are bad.

With multiple entries, I really want to take the Vikings for a contrarian pick; I think the offense with Darrisaw will get it going a lot sooner and I think Brian Flores makes life absolutely miserable for Michael Penix, but I'm not 100% it's worth betting my Survivor life on. Another reason I may pass on the Vikings, I think they'll get better as the season goes on and some matchups that may not look awesome right now will look a lot better in a few months.

 

[Slim Tubby]

Came out of last week unscathed, but had to sweat things out a little bit. With no real major surprises/upsets, most people are moving on to Week 2. Circa Survivor had seem massive carnage in Week 1 in each of the last 4-5 seasons and this year, I think only 2.8% of the entries were eliminated; like 573 out of 18,800 or so

Baltimore is the obvious major chalk pick this week, if you're not worried about having them available later in the season.

The two obvious ones to me are Arizona and Dallas. Arizona scares me a little bit, I have seen them lose to some really bad teams recently at home, and I WAS higher on Carolina and Bryce Young to start the season but they could not have looked much worse. Dak seems to beat up on Bad teams and the NY Giants are bad.

With multiple entries, I really want to take the Vikings for a contrarian pick; I think the offense with Darrisaw will get it going a lot sooner and I think Brian Flores makes life absolutely miserable for Michael Penix, but I'm not 100% it's worth betting my Survivor life on. Another reason I may pass on the Vikings, I think they'll get better as the season goes on and some matchups that may not look awesome right now will look a lot better in a few months.

Good stuff. In years past, I've always taken the approach to gamble on some matchups early on in order to save the better teams for later in the season. That "brilliant" strategy has never allowed me to see Week 9 in my Survivor Pools.

This year, I'm taking the best teams early and hopefully other marginal teams will emerge as favorites as the season progresses. You mentioned both BAL and DAL for this week and those were the teams that I also came down to.

I made a minor exception this week and ultimately went with DAL. They held their own on the road against PHI last week and they're at Home against Russell Wilson and an equally shitty NYG roster, especially with a dinged up and disgruntled Nabers.

If NYG were starting Dart, I probably would've went with BAL because I don't believe DAL is a Playoff caliber team when all is said and done.

Week 1 - WAS
Week 2 - DAL

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

Good stuff. In years past, I've always taken the approach to gamble on some matchups early on in order to save the better teams for later in the season. That "brilliant" strategy has never allowed me to see Week 9 in my Survivor Pools.

This year, I'm taking the best teams early and hopefully other marginal teams will emerge as favorites as the season progresses. You mentioned both BAL and DAL for this week and those were the teams that I also came down to.

I made a minor exception this week and ultimately went with DAL. They held their own on the road against PHI last week and they're at Home against Russell Wilson and an equally shitty NYG roster, especially with a dinged up and disgruntled Nabers.

If NYG were starting Dart, I probably would've went with BAL because I don't believe DAL is a Playoff caliber team when all is said and done.

Week 1 - WAS
Week 2 - DAL

Dallas sits at a 64% win chance, and through the remainder of the season, they don't really show a game higher than 50-55%. From a Future Value perspective, Dallas is the sharp play

In the last 24 hours, Arizona has moved from a 65% Win Chance to 72% chance win, the 3rd highest on the board. Arizona gets Tennessee at Home in Week 5, with currently a 71% Win chance, then nothing great the rest of the season.

The LA Rams are getting a lot of love on the Road against Tennessee this week; I like it, but not sure I love it. Detroit is for some reason getting a lot of love, 65% Win Chance, at home against the Bears. The Bears are a volatile team to me right now, they COULD get better, while Detroit just looked awful last week. Taking Detroit would be a big leap of faith.

Like I said, I like the Vikings this week, 64% Win Chance, with the only game Currently much better the rest of the way is the Cleveland game in London. But in the Vikings case, as they improve over the year and some other future opponents fall off or lose QBs, I think there will be better spots for the Vikings. The Injuries to the Vikings scare me a little bit, but I really do think they ROLL Atlanta in a fairly low-scoring game.

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

I put a lot of eggs in the Dallas basket, makes me nervous. But Dak has a history of beating up on bad teams and the Giants are a bad team. I did use one entry for Arizona and another one for the Vikings (BEFORE I found out Darrisaw wasn't playing).

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

A little surprised the Cardinals were the most picked team this week. I did take them with one entry, and then proceeded to hear on the Cards podcast just how the Panthers have OWNED the Cardinals in the last number of years. It's been pretty odd. I think the Cardinals win but who knows?

Still waiting for the first big Survivor upset, or as Circa calls it, who will be the Team of Death?

 

[upnorthkid]

A little surprised the Cardinals were the most picked team this week. I did take them with one entry, and then proceeded to hear on the Cards podcast just how the Panthers have OWNED the Cardinals in the last number of years. It's been pretty odd. I think the Cardinals win but who knows?

Still waiting for the first big Survivor upset, or as Circa calls it, who will be the Team of Death?


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Feels like a week people want to try be “smart”. I like the ravens and cowboys both better. Cardinals are still too iffy to me though I expect they win

 

[Slim Tubby]

A little surprised the Cardinals were the most picked team this week. I did take them with one entry, and then proceeded to hear on the Cards podcast just how the Panthers have OWNED the Cardinals in the last number of years. It's been pretty odd. I think the Cardinals win but who knows?

Still waiting for the first big Survivor upset, or as Circa calls it, who will be the Team of Death?


View attachment 38912

My Survivor Pool has 17,000 entries and only lost 0.7% of the teams in Week One.

 

[Ogie Ogilthorpe]

Feels like a week people want to try be “smart”. I like the ravens and cowboys both better. Cardinals are still too iffy to me though I expect they win

Well, the prevailing "expert" thought in Survivor is to not pick the team that would be the most picked team. Everything I saw was that Baltimore would be the most picked team. Very surprised. And then the guys on the VSiN show the other day all said they picked Baltimore, the most important thing is to advance. And surprisingly, they said there wouldn't be a LOT of great weeks to pick Baltimore the rest of the season. For such a good team, that surprises me too.

Is Baltimore REALLY that much of a lock though? Their defense looked terrible in Week 1, Flacco is old but he's a legit QB, and Cleveland has a legit defense and should have beat Cincinnati last week.

Bryce Young is apparently like 1-15 straight up in his career on the road, but Carolina has really had a lot of success, for whatever reason, against Arizona.

Just heard a story that last week some guy with 10 entries was drinking all day and put his picks in at the kiosk for Circa Survivor, accidentally picked the Saints in all his picks instead of Arizona. $10k out the window. WTF....

I'm a LITTLE nervous this week, but fingers crossed. Carnage is coming at some point, I just hope it's not this week.