2025 Bowl Projection Tracker

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tjgopher said:
To me, Illinois is the only real possibility of that for NYC this year. And, they probably need to lose one or both of their remaining games to dip to Pinstripe.

Michigan isn't dropping that far. They just aren't.
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9-3 Nebraska + 9-3 Illinois
+ 8-4 Minnesota + 8-4 Michigan would put Michigan in the pinstripe bowl. IMO

Illinois and Nebraska would likely be ranked teams in the two Florida bowls.
The pinstripe would want a team they’ve never had and historically the big ten would give it to them.
 

The agreement with the Pinstripe Bowl is unique. The original agreement in 2014 called for 8 different schools in an 8-year period. When they renewed at the start of the decade I think they modified that to be 6 different schools in an 8-year period with an understanding that the conference would work with them in good faith to have no repeat teams if at all possible. There is definitely a chance that Michigan could fall to Pinstripe if they finish 8-4.
 


Some guy said:
9-3 Nebraska + 9-3 Illinois
+ 8-4 Minnesota + 8-4 Michigan would put Michigan in the pinstripe bowl. IMO

Illinois and Nebraska would likely be ranked teams in the two Florida bowls.
The pinstripe would want a team they’ve never had and historically the big ten would give it to them.
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So, you have Nebraska in Orlando and Illinois in Tampa, and then what?

You think Vegas, who gets a Big Ten team only every other year, and has never had Michigan (who almost never falls below Florida) will take 7-5 Iowa instead?

And then after that, you're saying the Music City Bowl, which has never had Michigan (who almost never falls below Florida and never, never fallen to Nashville) will take Minnesota instead, knowing the Music City Bowl has passed on Minnesota multiple times in the past ten years for teams not nearly as big as Michigan?

Iowa cannot go to Music City this year.

Michigan just isn't going to fall to NYC. It just isn't.
 

tjgopher said:
So, you have Nebraska in Orlando and Illinois in Tampa, and then what?

You think Vegas, who gets a Big Ten team only every other year, and has never had Michigan (who almost never falls below Florida) will take 7-5 Iowa instead?

And then after that, you're saying the Music City Bowl, which has never had Michigan (who almost never falls below Florida and never, never fallen to Nashville) will take Minnesota instead, knowing the Music City Bowl has passed on Minnesota multiple times in the past ten years for teams not nearly as big as Michigan?

Iowa cannot go to Music City this year.

Michigan just isn't going to fall to NYC. It just isn't.
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I don’t think Michigan will end up in the pinstripe bowl either.

The music city bowl doesn’t pick above the pinstripe
There isn’t a draft


I think it’s going to end up;
Michigan and Nebraska in Florida
Vegas and Nashville will get Iowa and Illinois
New York will get northwestern
Minnesota in Arizona
 


tjgopher said:
You think Vegas, who gets a Big Ten team only every other year, and has never had Michigan (who almost never falls below Florida) will take 7-5 Iowa instead?
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I have no opinion on where Iowa will go bowling but I don't think they will finish 7-5. I suspect they will win both of their last two games.
 

TwistingMyMelon said:
I have no opinion on where Iowa will go bowling but I don't think they will finish 7-5. I suspect they will win both of their last two games.
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I was just going off the scenario presented that Nebraska was 9-3 in the example I was responding to.

If Nebraska finishes 9-3, then the best Iowa can be is 7-5. I was not making any predictive statement on Iowa's final record.

I agree, they will likely win both games left.
 
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Some guy said:
Michigan and Nebraska in Florida
Vegas and Nashville will get Iowa and Illinois
New York will get northwestern
Minnesota in Arizona
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Agree with this as most likely outcome.

Some guy said:
The music city bowl doesn’t pick above the pinstripe
There isn’t a draft
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Music City has clear priority over Pinstripe. The tier system which was used for a few years is gone.
It is about as close to a draft as you can get. The conference might step in to hit a contractual obligation or cover a loop hole, but that's about it. Bowls pick who they want in a certain order.
 

tjgopher said:
Agree with this as most likely outcome.



Music City has clear priority over Pinstripe. The tier system which was used for a few years is gone.
It is about as close to a draft as you can get. The conference might step in to hit a contractual obligation or cover a loop hole, but that's about it. Bowls pick who they want in a certain order.
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No. They don’t
There isn’t a draft
 



Some guy said:
No. They don’t
There isn’t a draft
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There's clearly a pecking order. Which is why typically Minnesota ends up in Detroit and Michigan ends up in Florida.
Better bowls get their picks before lesser bowls.
Duh.
 


tjgopher said:
Curious, how do you think the Big Ten teams are selected for bowl games?
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It used to be a draft with a clear selection order and for the most part there is still an order, but the latest agreements have said that the conference ultimately works hand in hand with the bowls to provide the best matchup + experience for all schools.

For non-playoff bowls the order of placement is:
Citrus, ReliaQuest, Vegas, Music City, Pinstripe, Rate, Sports

Citrus, ReliaQuest, Vegas, Music City and Rate all share the same stipulations: 5 different schools in a 6-year period AND no teams can go 2 consecutive seasons.

Pinstripe has its own unique stipulation: Conference will work in good faith to have a new school every season. But at the very least, minimum of 6 different schools in an 8 year period.

Rate Bowl has no stipulations. They can take their pick of whatever is left over.
 





gopherbadgerman said:
Agree. Why does everyone think there is a priority draft? This isn't 2012. The B10 works with the bowls to assign teams to the games.
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Correct.
And the big ten basically has tiered their bowls into pools.

Top tier
Citrus and outback (whatever they are called now)
Right now the 4 candidates for these bows, IMO, are Michigan, Illinois, Nebraska and Iowa.


Next tier
Nashville, New York, Vegas/Charlotte (alternating years usually but recently two in a row in Charlotte)

Right now the candidates for these bowl are the two from above that don’t get Florida, Minnesota, northwestern, Penn state, Maryland.

Next tier
Arizona and Detroit
The leftovers



They typically have bowed down to the pinstripes wishes. Which is to get every team there with few if any repeats.
They also have some soft rules like a 6-6 can’t jump and 8-4
And 7-5 can’t jump a 9-3.
Some bowls have a no repeats preference
Some bowls have a no back to back preference
Some have a once every 4 years at most preference
Some would wave those rules to get a big brand I’m sure






Still a lot of moving parts
 

Captain Obvious here. Beating Northwestern would help clarify things a lot. There is definitely a strong possibility that the BIG cannot fill all of its Bowl obligations this year.

Also. Nebraska is not that good this year, and Iowa will trounce them.
 
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A
tjgopher said:
So, you have Nebraska in Orlando and Illinois in Tampa, and then what?

You think Vegas, who gets a Big Ten team only every other year, and has never had Michigan (who almost never falls below Florida) will take 7-5 Iowa instead?

And then after that, you're saying the Music City Bowl, which has never had Michigan (who almost never falls below Florida and never, never fallen to Nashville) will take Minnesota instead, knowing the Music City Bowl has passed on Minnesota multiple times in the past ten years for teams not nearly as big as Michigan?

Iowa cannot go to Music City this year.

Michigan just isn't going to fall to NYC. It just isn't.
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Agreed, but I think it's less likely Nebraska finishes 9-3,
 

tjgopher said:
Agree with this as most likely outcome.



Music City has clear priority over Pinstripe. The tier system which was used for a few years is gone.
It is about as close to a draft as you can get. The conference might step in to hit a contractual obligation or cover a loop hole, but that's about it. Bowls pick who they want in a certain order.
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Music city doesn’t have priority over pinstripe.
They are the same tier per all the literature I’ve seen. Would love to see something that says otherwise
 


I forecasted 2048 scenarios based on the ESPN FPI chances of winning each matchup. I only got through the Citrus and Reliaquest. Based on the FPI predictor numbers the chances of bowl berths are:
Citrus
Michigan - 67.37%
Nebraska - 27.19%
Minnesota - 5.44%
Remember that Illinois & Iowa are ineligible for this bowl

Reliaquest
Illinois - 62.64%
Iowa - 24.95%
Nebraska - 10.32%
Minnesota - 1.99%
Northwestern - 0.09%
Remember that Michigan is ineligible for this bowl.

I'm working on the Vegas projections now....but it's a WIP and time permitting, of which I have no more today.
 



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