2024 MN High School Football thread

[Some guy]

Interesting stats:

Non reliefs teams record vs other sections
South: 4-8
North: 2-6
East: 5-7
West: 11-1

Excluding Osseo and coon rapids (because nobody took relief from the north)
South 3-8
North 2-4
East 4-7
West 11-1


Obviously this doesn’t mean everything because some of it is matchup based, but I expect the west to get 3-4 in the final 8 and maybe as many as 3 in the final 4.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Alright it's 6A Friday.

Who you got?

Maple Grove vs the Field?

The Field.

Maple Grove looks really good but I don't think they are significantly better then a number of other teams so odds are someone else comes out as the champion.

Maple Grove will have their hands full just getting out of the region with how stacked it is.

 

[MaxyJR1]

The problem with shakopee is they’re not usually stable enough on Defense to win that many games. And they wouldn’t see maple grove until the championship. Shakopee does have a nice draw though.

Shakopee to my knowledge has never made state semifinals.
Eagan has never made the state quarterfinals.

Will be interesting to see what (and if) new teams make the big stadium this year.

Teams not #1 seeds that I feel have the best shot at the bank are:

Lakeville South or East Ridge
Forest Lake
Eden Prairie or Edina
Shakopee, Prior Lake, or Farmington

 

[Some guy]

Teams not #1 seeds that I feel have the best shot at the bank are:

Lakeville South or East Ridge
Forest Lake
Eden Prairie or Edina
Shakopee, Prior Lake, or Farmington

agree with these picks
would probably pick the same

Of those 8 teams. I think maybe 4 of them could lose in the first round too.

East ridge could make the bank or lose tonight.
Farmington could make the bank or lose tonight to prior lake

Just a ton of teams that are close

 

[MNVCGUY]

Teams not #1 seeds that I feel have the best shot at the bank are:

Lakeville South or East Ridge
Forest Lake
Eden Prairie or Edina
Shakopee, Prior Lake, or Farmington

Not sure I agree on Farmington. South maybe only because their region feels soft but they were pretty underwhelming when I saw them live as well. I might sneak Eagan into the EP, Edina group, I know they got blown out by Edina in game 1 but they are solid.

Assuming both Edina and Eagan win tonight their rematch next week at Eagan will probably be one of the better second round matchups in 6A.

 

[Some guy]

in terms of championship game:
One side of the bracket has 1) maple grove, 2) shakopee, 3) Edina, 6) EP, 8) Eagan 9) MV

Other side of the bracket has
4) lakeville north injured
5) Minnetonka
7) forest lake
10) Blaine


Brackets really imbalanced

The one quadrant has - 1, 3, 6, and 8 and only 2 of those 4 can advance to the final 8
Number 1 and number 6 are playing in the second round.

 

[MNVCGUY]

in terms of championship game:
One side of the bracket has 1) maple grove, 2) shakopee, 3) Edina, 6) EP, 8) Eagan 9) MV

Other side of the bracket has
4) lakeville north injured
5) Minnetonka
7) forest lake
10) Blaine


Brackets really imbalanced

The one quadrant has - 1, 3, 6, and 8 and only 2 of those 4 can advance to the final 8
Number 1 and number 6 are playing in the second round.

Decent chance the semifinal game between the winner of the MV/MG side of the bracket is the de-facto state championship game with the best matchup.

 

[Some guy]

Decent chance the semifinal game between the winner of the MV/MG side of the bracket is the de-facto state championship game with the best matchup.

This is especially true if you think Shakopee is the second best team in the state.

Shakopee has fumbled a bit this year which has kept some teams in games. Could bite them in playoffs.

 

[MaxyJR1]

This is especially true if you think Shakopee is the second best team in the state.

Shakopee has fumbled a bit this year which has kept some teams in games. Could bite them in playoffs.

I've seen both MG and Shakopee and they losing is likely due to putting the ball on the ground.

Probably could say about most teams.

 

[prespsguy]

This is especially true if you think Shakopee is the second best team in the state.

Shakopee has fumbled a bit this year which has kept some teams in games. Could bite them in playoffs.

Shakopee seems to have an awful lot in common with last year's state champ, Centennial. Very similar option offense and stout defense.

 

[Some guy]

Shakopee seems to have an awful lot in common with last year's state champ, Centennial. Very similar option offense and stout defense.

Shakopee has more home run threat than last years centennial
Last years centennial has a much better defense than this years shakopee

But I have only seen one game of shakopee so maybe their defense is better than I saw

 

[prespsguy]

Shakopee has more home run threat than last years centennial
Last years centennial has a much better defense than this years shakopee

But I have only seen one game of shakopee so maybe their defense is better than I saw

Not sure about that. Shakopee gave up 7 to Eden Prairie, 7 to Wayzata, and 12 to Edina. That implies to me that if they are on, they are pretty good.

 

[Some guy]

Not sure about that. Shakopee gave up 7 to Eden Prairie, 7 to Wayzata, and 12 to Edina. That implies to me that if they are on, they are pretty good.

I am talking about it based on watching them play, not based on scores. I saw them play prior lake. It was week 2, they could be better by now. But they turned guys loose against the pass in that game. They gave up 20 to Blaine who scored 0 on maple grove, 14 on anoka, and 23 against Champlin park in their 3 toughest games other than shakopee.

Shakopee is my pick to win the state title, so don’t think I have an anti shakopee bias

But their defense is a bigger liability than their offense (unless their offense fumbles)

 

[prespsguy]

I am talking about it based on watching them play, not based on scores. I saw them play prior lake. It was week 2, they could be better by now. But they turned guys loose against the pass in that game. They gave up 20 to Blaine who scored 0 on maple grove, 14 on anoka, and 23 against Champlin park in their 3 toughest games other than shakopee.

Shakopee is my pick to win the state title, so don’t think I have an anti shakopee bias

But their defense is a bigger liability than their offense (unless their offense fumbles)

I hear ya. I don't think any teams in this years tournament are truly safe. I guarantee there will be some scores that surprise everyone, even tonight. It's going to be a heck of a tournament.

 

[MaxyJR1]

I am talking about it based on watching them play, not based on scores. I saw them play prior lake. It was week 2, they could be better by now. But they turned guys loose against the pass in that game. They gave up 20 to Blaine who scored 0 on maple grove, 14 on anoka, and 23 against Champlin park in their 3 toughest games other than shakopee.

Shakopee is my pick to win the state title, so don’t think I have an anti shakopee bias

But their defense is a bigger liability than their offense (unless their offense fumbles)

Defense is fairly good. They run a form of 3/3/5 and have 3 safeties. HC kid, 10th grader is one of them and they let him roam. They have FCS/D1 talent on all three levels.

Their issue is they can't pass. They have thrown 26 passes, completed 44% and 4 ints. They threw one pass against Blaine and it was intercepted. In their loss it was 4-10 and 2 ints.

They fall behind to a decent defense and they will lose. Centennial was a good passing team and connected on big plays last year. Their QB was 60% for 8 TD's and 2 picks last year and threw for 1,000 yards.

 

[Some guy]

I hear ya. I don't think any teams in this years tournament are truly safe. I guarantee there will be some scores that surprise everyone, even tonight. It's going to be a heck of a tournament.

My upset specials tonight (non4-5 games)

I think rosemount can beat Blaine. Defense is good enough but Rosemount can’t score. They have a chance.
Wayzata could beat south (they already did once this year)

 

[Some guy]

Defense is fairly good. They run a form of 3/3/5 and have 3 safeties. HC kid, 10th grader is one of them and they let him roam. They have FCS/D1 talent on all three levels.

Their issue is they can't pass. They have thrown 26 passes, completed 44% and 4 ints. They threw one pass against Blaine and it was intercepted. In their loss it was 4-10 and 2 ints.

They fall behind to a decent defense and they will lose. Centennial was a good passing team and connected on big plays last year. Their QB was 60% for 8 TD's and 2 picks last year and threw for 1,000 yards.

Against prior lake if prior lake could’ve hit the spots prior lake could’ve scored 40
Free runners.

Teams out west don’t throw much except Edina. They beat Edina but Edina is more RPO than true passing game.
I think both moundview and farmington could be tough matchups for shakopee defense though I’m not sure either of them could stop shakopee

 

[prespsguy]

My upset specials tonight (non4-5 games)

I think rosemount can beat Blaine. Defense is good enough but Rosemount can’t score. They have a chance.
Wayzata could beat south (they already did once this year)

Something just seems off at Edina. I think they win, but I think White Bear Lake gives them a great deal of anxiety tonight.

 

[GophersInIowa]

obviously, there is no way to make this a rule - but, in a clear blowout, the winning team should pull its starters as soon as it becomes evident that the game is no contest.

I've heard the argument that "we need to give the kids enough reps to get them ready for the next round" and so forth. but in a game that one-sided, you're not getting quality reps.

about 30 years ago, there was a rule in Iowa where, if one team was 50 points ahead, the game ended. so I saw coaches who would pull their starters in the 2nd quarter to ensure that the game at least went into the second half.

I remember a playoff game I did on radio in Wisconsin. 1st play of the game, the favored team ran a basic fullback dive. went for 80 yards and a TD. I turned to my color man and said, "this game's over. the only thing left to decide is the final score." and I was right.

I went through 9 man and A first round games. For 9 man, there were only two 5 over 4 seed "upsets". That's it, no 6, 7 or 8 seed playing in the 2nd round.

For A, there were five 5 over 4 upsets but that was also it for them.

Many of the 5 over 4 games included at least one team that didn't play a lot of games against teams from their section.

 

[Ranger692]

I went through 9 man and A first round games. For 9 man, there were only two 5 over 4 seed "upsets". That's it, no 6, 7 or 8 seed playing in the 2nd round.

For A, there were five 5 over 4 upsets but that was also it for them.

Many of the 5 over 4 games included at least one team that didn't play a lot of games against teams from their section.

IMHO its hard to get a good feel for who should be seeded where when a team plays 0 section games...

Not sure how MSHL lets this happen in the lower classes so often. Not to mention in class A There should have been WAY more 7 team sections and 0, 6 team sections...

Major advantage not having to play last Wednesday while other sections had to all play. The extra rest those teams have is huge coming into Saturday

 

[Maverick_52]

Alright it's 6A Friday.

Who you got?

Maple Grove vs the Field?

I'm predicting a Maple Grove-Minnetonka Prep Bowl.

 

[Gopher 461]

I'm waiting for the second round EP vs Maple Grove matchup. EP defense guys are healthy.

 

[MaxyJR1]

IMHO its hard to get a good feel for who should be seeded where when a team plays 0 section games...

Not sure how MSHL lets this happen in the lower classes so often. Not to mention in class A There should have been WAY more 7 team sections and 0, 6 team sections...

Major advantage not having to play last Wednesday while other sections had to all play. The extra rest those teams have is huge coming into Saturday

It happens because the schools of the MSHSL created districts/pools with of 20ish teams and allowed the districts to then schedule games. These games are across sections and classes. Sections are based on class and often cause greater travel to schools of similar size.

The fix used to be section play, but there are no longer 8 teams in sections. The best option is likely paring sections and scheduling 5 section games and 3 cross over games with a neighboring section. It would be more travel but allow for better seeding in the playoffs.

 

[MaxyJR1]

Something just seems off at Edina. I think they win, but I think White Bear Lake gives them a great deal of anxiety tonight.

They're 6-2 with losses to Shakopee and Minnetonka. They're teenagers losing to Minnetonka after beating EP and weren't able to stop Shakopee's attack. WBL (Assuming they are till option football) can't match what Shakopee can do IMO. Eagan is a better WBL and Edina destroyed them.

 

[MaxyJR1]

My upset specials tonight (non4-5 games)

I think rosemount can beat Blaine. Defense is good enough but Rosemount can’t score. They have a chance.
Wayzata could beat south (they already did once this year)

Shut down Blaine's running QB and it will be a really close game.

Wayzata and South should be a really good game as well. With teenagers I tend to lean towards the team that lost the first time playing better in the second match-up in a toss-up game.

 

[Stan]

The Field.

Maple Grove looks really good but I don't think they are significantly better then a number of other teams so odds are someone else comes out as the champion.

Maple Grove will have their hands full just getting out of the region with how stacked it is.

Maple Grove's QB and RB are legit and their depth is ridiculous. They haven't really been tested yet outside of the Minnetonka game.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Defense is fairly good. They run a form of 3/3/5 and have 3 safeties. HC kid, 10th grader is one of them and they let him roam. They have FCS/D1 talent on all three levels.

Their issue is they can't pass. They have thrown 26 passes, completed 44% and 4 ints. They threw one pass against Blaine and it was intercepted. In their loss it was 4-10 and 2 ints.

They fall behind to a decent defense and they will lose. Centennial was a good passing team and connected on big plays last year. Their QB was 60% for 8 TD's and 2 picks last year and threw for 1,000 yards.

I was really impressed by Shakopee when they played Rosemount but agree that it doesn't feel like they can throw at all. So if they get behind to a good team they are hosed. But man they have some serious speed and even though Rosemount was winning in the first half you could just tell Shakopee was going to kick it into gear eventually. I think they win their region if they play well.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Maple Grove's QB and RB are legit and their depth is ridiculous. They haven't really been tested yet outside of the Minnetonka game.

Haven't seen them play so will take your word for it. They got saddled with a really tough region, if they get to the final 4 I think they have a great shot of winning it all.

 

[MaxyJR1]

Maple Grove's QB and RB are legit and their depth is ridiculous. They haven't really been tested yet outside of the Minnetonka game.

Centennial gave them a scare and woke them up. They haven't looked back.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

so, math time - on Saturday, we have semi-finals in 5 classes with 8 sections per class. 16 games in each class times 5 classes equals 80 games.

a few that, at least on paper, match up teams with good records:

9-pl: Kingsland (7-2) at #6 Spring Grove (9-0)
--Littlefork-Big Falls (7-2) at #9 Cherry (8-1)

1A: #9 Fillmore Central (8-1) at #7 Blooming Prairie (8-1)
--- Ada-Borup West (7-2) at #10 Red Lake County (8-1)
--- Dawson-Boyd (7-2) at #6 BOLD (7-1)

2A: Holdingford (7-2) at #7 Eden Valley-Watkins (7-1)
--- Cannon Falls (7-2) at #9 Rush City (8-0)

3A: Luverne (7-2) at #8 Fairmont (6-2)
--- Pierz (6-2) at #10 Two Harbors (7-1)

4A: #5 Rocori (6-2) at #3 Princeton (8-0)

5A: #10 Bemidji (7-2) at #7 Alexandria (6-2)
--- Minneapolis Washburn (6-2) at #9 Robbinsdale Cooper (7-1)
--- Mankato East (6-2) at #8 Mankato West (5-3)