This is pretty true, but there are real chances of getting down to 6. 6 may get a significantly harder first round opponent than 4 based on how they need to move things around sometimes.
Based on seeding, we know actually pretty well who we could play given so much isn't going to change things for us in any meaningful way and many of the seeds already "locked" in terms of the band they will be in for options for us to play given we can only be a 1 or a 2.
Locked 4s: AHA winner, Mankato
Remaining options: NCHC autobid (ASU, UND), ECAC autobid (Cornell, Clarkson, Dartmouth) with QU also an option if they lose (they're only out if they lose tonight plus NCHC is an autobid) in the semis, PSU, Mich.
No way we play the AHA team. If we end up at the 4, means its MSU, Maine and BC.
Bracket integrity version: we end up with a B10 team or NCHC/ECAC autobid, or QU
Avoid intraconf matchups: Mankato, NCHC/ECAC, QU
Options as a 2 seed: the 9-12 band is actually pretty well locked. OSU and UMass for sure. Highly likely QU and DU. Other options are Prov, PSU and ASU (requires QU to lose tonight). Can't play OSU/PSU if they're a 3 seed (there are easily other options). Based on where seeds fall it's going to be QU or Umass with a very rare chance of DU or ASU. Would be surprised if they throw DU or ASU in the same regional as WMU given how few NCHC teams will be in and wanting to keep HE teams away from each other where they can.
In short, I expect we're playing UMass or QU just with how the games shake out, with an outside chance of the weirdness of us remaining at 1 and we get to see if they go bracket integrity or avoid 1st round matchups. Things will get really closed to locked after tonight in terms of our opponent.