2023 Over/Under From Draft Kings

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Lot less gimmes on the schedule this year. Honestly seems about right. We could blow that number out or end up 5-7. Truth will be probably somewhere in the middle
 

I’ll take the over for Minnesota and Iowa, and the under for Wisconsin, and wouldn’t bet Nebraska. Without looking at their schedules, I’d think Northwestern and Indiana would be good for the over.
 



WAGopher said:
I’ll take the over for Minnesota and Iowa, and the under for Wisconsin, and wouldn’t bet Nebraska. Without looking at their schedules, I’d think Northwestern and Indiana would be good for the over.
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I’d take the over on the Gophers, too. But PJ has to win every the games he should win (including the opener vs Nebraska), and he has to win the majority of toss-ups. Seven and even eight wins are certainly doable, even though we probably start two in the hole with tOSU and Michigan.
 


Picking Ohio state and Michigan both on the over means you think both teams are going into the last game unbeaten or you think the team that got upset earlier in the year will win that game. I can’t pick both of them on the over

Thus:
Ohio state - over
Michigan - no bet
Penn state - under
Wisconsin - under
Iowa - over
Maryland - no bet
Illinois - no bet
Minnesota - over
Nebraska - no bet
Michigan state - no bet
Purdue - no bet
Indiana - no bet
Northwestern - no bet
 





+1 vote for 7-5. I'm on the Gophers over at 6.5. There is a very realistic path to seven wins and I think eight is the upside.

Win all of:
  • Eastern Michigan (H)
  • Northwestern (A)
  • Louisiana (H)
Win three of:
  • Nebraska (H)
  • Michigan State (H)
  • Illinois (H)
  • Purdue (A)
Win one of:
  • North Carolina (A)
  • Michigan (H)
  • Iowa (A)
  • OSU (A)
  • Wisconsin (H)
Will feel very bad about that bet if they lose to Nebraska out of the gate and very good if they beat UNC week three.
 
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GophersInIowa said:
That seems pretty low but whatever. 9 for Wisconsin is ridiculous.
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I wouldn't touch the under on Wisconsin. I know they have a new coach, and it's possible that the wheels fall off, but if they were to play all of their games this weekend then the only two games I wouldn't have them favored in are tOSU (H) and Minnesota (A).

Their OOC schedule is very easy. Their cross-overs excepting tOSU are Rutgers and Indiana. They draw Nebraska and Iowa at home.
 

These lines never include bowl games, right?
 





hello-world said:
I wouldn't touch the under on Wisconsin. I know they have a new coach, and it's possible that the wheels fall off, but if they were to play all of their games this weekend then the only two games I wouldn't have them favored in are tOSU (H) and Minnesota (A).

Their OOC schedule is very easy. Their cross-overs excepting tOSU are Rutgers and Indiana. They draw Nebraska and Iowa at home.
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Normally, I’d agree on Wisconsin, but with a new coach and QB I think they’ll lose at least one game they usually would have won.
 

WAGopher said:
Normally, I’d agree on Wisconsin, but with a new coach and QB I think they’ll lose at least one game they usually would have won.
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Yeah, I agree with you but I'm not going to put money behind that opinion. Until they show that they're not, my working assumption is that they are going to roll over that schedule.
 

I think Michigan will lose twice. I think Gophers will win 7 or more. If someone would make those bets for me I'll contact you after the season with my address for you to mail me my winnings. :)
 

Minnesota​

Total: 6.5 wins

The play: Under

Vegas undervalued the Gophers each of the past 2 seasons, and this feels like an overcorrection. Minnesota’s past 2 teams were veteran-laden groups, whereas this one will be 87th in returning production.

Crucially, Minnesota has a challenging road game at North Carolina, which is led by Heisman candidate Drake Maye. That feels like it could be the difference that pushes this total under.

saturdaytradition.com

Over or under? Analyzing each Big Ten team's projected 2023 win totals

Caesars released Big Ten win totals for the 2023 season. We take a look at how likely each B1G team is to go over or under.
saturdaytradition.com saturdaytradition.com
 
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hello-world said:
I wouldn't touch the under on Wisconsin. I know they have a new coach, and it's possible that the wheels fall off, but if they were to play all of their games this weekend then the only two games I wouldn't have them favored in are tOSU (H) and Minnesota (A).

Their OOC schedule is very easy. Their cross-overs excepting tOSU are Rutgers and Indiana. They draw Nebraska and Iowa at home.
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Using last year's final Sagarin ratings, as of now they'd be huge dogs to OSU, slight dogs to @MN and @IL, and 'pick-em for IA and @WSU. That's already 5 games where they have a 50% or greater chance to lose, and that's not even factoring in an entirely new coaching staff and a vast departure from the O and D schemes they've operated almost exclusively for the past 30+ years. Picking them for the under is the best O/U bet in the Big Ten.

Their OOC is not very easy, by the way. Washington St. beat them in Camp Randall last year and played both Oregon and Utah within 4 points. Without even looking at the schedules, I virtually guarantee that @WSU is one of the 5 most difficult OOC games in the Big Ten this fall. Better wisconsin teams than this have lost to worse teams than 2023 Buffalo. They could very easily be 1-2 in the OOC.

Predicting them to miss a bowl would be a better bet than predicting them to win 10+ games.
 

dpodoll68 said:
Their OOC is not very easy, by the way. Washington St. beat them in Camp Randall last year and played both Oregon and Utah within 4 points. Without even looking at the schedules, I virtually guarantee that @WSU is one of the 5 most difficult OOC games in the Big Ten this fall. Better wisconsin teams than this have lost to worse teams than 2023 Buffalo. They could very easily be 1-2 in the OOC.
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Wisconsin outgained WSU by 150 yards and held the ball for 40 minutes. Result doesn't always reflect process. WSU finished the season 7-5 including a 29-6 loss to a G5 team in their bowl game. Wisconsin would be about a 9-point favorite if they were to play tomorrow.
 


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