2023 MN High School Football season

No matter what possible system you come up with for selecting X teams for a state bracket, so long as X is less than the total number of teams, there will always be the first few teams left out.

Always.

Those teams could’ve done better during the regular season, and made it in. They don’t deserve sympathy.

Sure as hell doesn’t justify “everyone makes it” absurdity of Minnesota high school sports.

Shame on whomever forced it to be that way. And I’m sure that’s what it was, some powerful asshole whose daughter’s school was the first out, made it get switched to everyone makes it.
Coaches Association has asked the question 3 times and have had almost support collectively. Sections can also decide this on their own. One has done so this year. Two teams at the bottom are playing each other and weren’t seeded.
 

Coaches Association has asked the question 3 times and have had almost support collectively. Sections can also decide this on their own. One has done so this year. Two teams at the bottom are playing each other and weren’t seeded.
So the section decided that the two bottom teams are not eligible to move on? They can do that???
 

So the section decided that the two bottom teams are not eligible to move on? They can do that???
They can. Sections can design their tournaments how they’d like to determine a section champion. The exception is 6A football. Even 6A schools could vote to change their current structure.
 

Anyone see a team that should be on upset alert for round 1 of the 6A Playoffs? I think Mounds View as a higher seed versus Prior Lake is a clear one.
Not that I predict it,
But upset “alerts” in round 1
In order I would say likeliest

Prior lake > Moundsview
Blaine > rosemount (rosemount can’t score)
Farmington > Edina (farmington can score, could turn into a shootout that either team can win)
 

Not that I predict it,
But upset “alerts” in round 1
In order I would say likeliest

Prior lake > Moundsview
Blaine > rosemount (rosemount can’t score)
Farmington > Edina (farmington can score, could turn into a shootout that either team can win)
Agree with Prior Lake
 


Based on what? PL hasn't been good at all.
Prior Lake is 4-4 in the toughest district in the state. They have beaten Forest Lake and Woodbury, gave Eden Prairie a great game (was tied in the fourth), and lost to Minnetonka on a missed PAT. To say they are "not good at all" is a stretch. Mounds View has lost 2 of their last three including a loss to 2-6 East Ridge who has not been able to stop anyone; Mounds View scored 14. PL wins this one.
 

Prior Lake is 4-4 in the toughest district in the state. They have beaten Forest Lake and Woodbury, gave Eden Prairie a great game (was tied in the fourth), and lost to Minnetonka on a missed PAT. To say they are "not good at all" is a stretch. Mounds View has lost 2 of their last three including a loss to 2-6 East Ridge who has not been able to stop anyone; Mounds View scored 14. PL wins this one.
MV has an above average defense, below average offense.
I think PL will grind them out and win like 14-7 or something
 

Weather and home field could impact the game. MV will struggle to move the ball against PL
 

MV can’t move the ball on anyone.

probably the best game will be Wayzata at FLake. Wayzata has lost to Shakopee, PL, Tonka, Anoka and Lakeville south close. They beat Edina. I say 21-14 Flake but it’s tight
 



Prior Lake is 4-4 in the toughest district in the state. They have beaten Forest Lake and Woodbury, gave Eden Prairie a great game (was tied in the fourth), and lost to Minnetonka on a missed PAT. To say they are "not good at all" is a stretch. Mounds View has lost 2 of their last three including a loss to 2-6 East Ridge who has not been able to stop anyone; Mounds View scored 14. PL wins this one.
My mistake. I had only been looking at their district record, which is 1-4, rather than their overall, which is 4-4. Never mind.
 

Not that I predict it,
But upset “alerts” in round 1
In order I would say likeliest

Prior lake > Moundsview
Blaine > rosemount (rosemount can’t score)
Farmington > Edina (farmington can score, could turn into a shootout that either team can win)
It will be interesting in a bunch of games Friday. Some many are match-ups and which team shows up. I think a lot of the 3-6 and 4-5 games are tossups.
 

MV can’t move the ball on anyone.

probably the best game will be Wayzata at FLake. Wayzata has lost to Shakopee, PL, Tonka, Anoka and Lakeville south close. They beat Edina. I say 21-14 Flake but it’s tight
I'll be up north at a friend's cabin so I won't be able to go, but I'm torn on the Wayzata - Forest Lake game. I coach in the Wayzata youth program. But I played for Flake. I'm kind of leaning toward hoping FLake wins - for a school that's been around since 1909, they have very little sports success.
 

It will be interesting in a bunch of games Friday. Some many are match-ups and which team shows up. I think a lot of the 3-6 and 4-5 games are tossups.
I think they’re toss ups but I lean towards the lower seed in most of them
 



I think they’re toss ups but I lean towards the lower seed in most of them

The Class 6A 5/4 and 3/6 games are: (my guesses in bold)

5 Prior Lake @ 4 Mounds View
6 Blaine @ 3 Rosemount
5 Champlin Park @ 4 Shakopee
6 East Ridge @ 3 Anoka
5 White Bear Lake @ 4 Eagan
6 Wayzata @ 3 Forrest Lake
5 Rochester Mayo @ 4 St. Michael- Albertville
6 Farmington @ 3 Edina
 
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for a school that's been around since 1909, they have very little sports success.
As someone that played high school sports against FL, I agree. They were bad at almost everything.
 

Would be interesting to try to study why that would be.

I don’t think FL has any inherent disadvantage? But something was against them, under the surface. Had to be. Why else would they not have at least as much success in average as WBL, Stillwater, etc.?

Anti-sports admin? Incredible bad luck on coaching hires?
 

Yep, sure. Let any program who doesn’t make a state bracket be then able to schedule a 9th game as they see fit, vs any other program.

Abolish section brackets/tournaments.
I understand the sentiment in wanting change, but unless the MSHSL goes away from wanting "State Tournament" to be a representation of the whole state I don't see it. This has been the format for almost nearly 40 years.

The only way I see fit to change it is to do the WI model of 9 games and needing to be 5-4 to advance. That however, allows for districts to run into scheduling conflicts if there are any bias in how to schedule the 9 games. They could make 10 team districts/sections that are set for 2 years and you play those 9 games for two years and then reclass.

They are still going to want it to be a way that outstate teams are guaranteed a spot at State.
 

Would be interesting to try to study why that would be.

I don’t think FL has any inherent disadvantage? But something was against them, under the surface. Had to be. Why else would they not have at least as much success in average as WBL, Stillwater, etc.?

Anti-sports admin? Incredible bad luck on coaching hires?
Socioeconomics plays a big part of it. If there was a state 4X4 truck or an engine rebuilding championship, they’d win. It is still a rural area with little interest in sports as a whole.

They’re new facilities are fantastic though and they have a lot of students.
 


I know this happens some in 9-man but it seems there were a very high number of forfeits this year. It sucks for everyone involved when that happens.
 

Socioeconomics plays a big part of it. If there was a state 4X4 truck or an engine rebuilding championship, they’d win. It is still a rural area with little interest in sports as a whole.

They’re new facilities are fantastic though and they have a lot of students.
If we look at free/reduced numbers - not always a great stat, but it's easily available - FLHS is at 24%. Stillwater HS is 19%, and White Bear is at ~28%. Centennial is 24% and Blaine is 36%.So it's not as if Forest Lake is a much poorer school than the surrounding large suburban districts. (I didn't include Cambridge, St. Francis, Chisago or North Branch - they are smaller).

FL is a really strange district. It's geographically very large. I knew kids in high school who lived SE of Hugo, some near Marine on St. Croix and Scandia, Some near Blaine, and some kids who lived west of Stacy, all in the FL district.

The wealth in the district tends to be on the east side and around Forest Lake (the lake itself) - the former Forest Lake Township, Scandia, and May. There are probably some more affluent people now in the new developments west towards Columbus, and north in Wyoming. But there are some really poor areas in the city itself, and a definite redneck vibe when you get up in Linwood and Ham Lake.

So in that way, part of the district is more like Stillwater, and part of it is more like St. Francis.

That doesn't really explain how or why the school has had so little success at the state level. They only have 12 state team titles. One in wrestling (they were always good there), one in boys track, one in softball, and all the rest are in nordic or alpine skiing. 12 state titles in 114 years is not good.
 

If we look at free/reduced numbers - not always a great stat, but it's easily available - FLHS is at 24%. Stillwater HS is 19%, and White Bear is at ~28%. Centennial is 24% and Blaine is 36%.So it's not as if Forest Lake is a much poorer school than the surrounding large suburban districts. (I didn't include Cambridge, St. Francis, Chisago or North Branch - they are smaller).

FL is a really strange district. It's geographically very large. I knew kids in high school who lived SE of Hugo, some near Marine on St. Croix and Scandia, Some near Blaine, and some kids who lived west of Stacy, all in the FL district.

The wealth in the district tends to be on the east side and around Forest Lake (the lake itself) - the former Forest Lake Township, Scandia, and May. There are probably some more affluent people now in the new developments west towards Columbus, and north in Wyoming. But there are some really poor areas in the city itself, and a definite redneck vibe when you get up in Linwood and Ham Lake.

So in that way, part of the district is more like Stillwater, and part of it is more like St. Francis.

That doesn't really explain how or why the school has had so little success at the state level. They only have 12 state team titles. One in wrestling (they were always good there), one in boys track, one in softball, and all the rest are in nordic or alpine skiing. 12 state titles in 114 years is not good.
Culture also has a lot to do with it. Why is Hutchinson, a non-metro school of under 800 kids, always a power in football? A culture of excellence was created a long time ago, I assume by Grady Rosberg as well as an influential group of parents. The culture has continued with his son. Since creating this culture, boys who grow up in Hutchinson dream of becoming a varsity football player and high school football is in many ways the lifeblood of the town. This motivates kids in elementary school through high school to dedicate their time and energy to becoming a football player. The same culture of winning occurs in other sports in other communities, Warroad hockey as an example. Creating a winning culture is not an easy endeavor and in many schools and many athletics programs it just hasn't happened.
 

I don't have a scientific or socio-economic explanation for this - and yes, open enrollment has had an impact.

but from my vantage point, it just seems as if some school districts just have better athletes. that's not something you can legislate. some programs just seem to have kids who are bigger, stronger, faster and more athletic.

Yes, coaching matters, off-season work in the weight room matters. having a generally positive attitude about sports matters.

but in the end, if the other team just has better athletes than your team, your team is probably going to lose. and I don't know how to fix that.

***P.S. - personal salute to Windom. went 2-6 this year playing a 1A schedule. 1st game in Section 3-AA playoffs, Windom as the #6 seed beats #3 seed Pipestone. 1st win over Pipestone in 13 years. 1st time Windom has advanced to the next round of the Section since 2015.
 

RIP to the fields across the state that were destroyed last night and are hosting games again on Saturday when it will be around freezing. There have been multiple weeks of rain games this year.

I remember my senior year where we had a rain game and damp fall field was a mess, then it froze for section championship game. State Quarterfinal was played with tennis shoes due to the rock hard field we played on.
 
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I don't have a scientific or socio-economic explanation for this - and yes, open enrollment has had an impact.

but from my vantage point, it just seems as if some school districts just have better athletes. that's not something you can legislate. some programs just seem to have kids who are bigger, stronger, faster and more athletic.

Yes, coaching matters, off-season work in the weight room matters. having a generally positive attitude about sports matters.

but in the end, if the other team just has better athletes than your team, your team is probably going to lose. and I don't know how to fix that.

***P.S. - personal salute to Windom. went 2-6 this year playing a 1A schedule. 1st game in Section 3-AA playoffs, Windom as the #6 seed beats #3 seed Pipestone. 1st win over Pipestone in 13 years. 1st time Windom has advanced to the next round of the Section since 2015.
I agree to a point, but it's truly remarkable the changes a boy can make to his body from 13-18. If kids are dedicated to a strength and conditioning program run by a dedicated and knowledgable staff, athletes can be built.
 

The Class 6A 5/4 and 3/6 games are: (my guesses in bold)

5 Prior Lake @ 4 Mounds View
6 Blaine @ 3 Rosemount
5 Champlin Park @ 4 Shakopee
6 East Ridge @ 3 Anoka
5 White Bear Lake @ 4 Eagan
6 Wayzata @ 3 Forrest Lake
5 Rochester Mayo @ 4 St. Michael- Albertville
6 Farmington @ 3 Edina
Prior lake
Rosemount (but Blaine could upset)
Shakopee
Anoka
Eagan
Forest lake (I don’t think wayzata is very good)
St Michael
Edina (but farmington might out score them)
 

***P.S. - personal salute to Windom. went 2-6 this year playing a 1A schedule. 1st game in Section 3-AA playoffs, Windom as the #6 seed beats #3 seed Pipestone. 1st win over Pipestone in 13 years. 1st time Windom has advanced to the next round of the Section since 2015.
Random note, I happened to drive through Windom on Monday on the way to Omaha this past Monday. I saw the combo baseball park/football field on my way.

Good for Windom, home of Big Lew Olson.
 

I know this happens some in 9-man but it seems there were a very high number of forfeits this year. It sucks for everyone involved when that happens.
LeSeuer Henderson forfeited twice to Jackson County Central in 2A this year - once in the regular season and then last night.
 

If we look at free/reduced numbers - not always a great stat, but it's easily available - FLHS is at 24%. Stillwater HS is 19%, and White Bear is at ~28%. Centennial is 24% and Blaine is 36%.So it's not as if Forest Lake is a much poorer school than the surrounding large suburban districts. (I didn't include Cambridge, St. Francis, Chisago or North Branch - they are smaller).

FL is a really strange district. It's geographically very large. I knew kids in high school who lived SE of Hugo, some near Marine on St. Croix and Scandia, Some near Blaine, and some kids who lived west of Stacy, all in the FL district.

The wealth in the district tends to be on the east side and around Forest Lake (the lake itself) - the former Forest Lake Township, Scandia, and May. There are probably some more affluent people now in the new developments west towards Columbus, and north in Wyoming. But there are some really poor areas in the city itself, and a definite redneck vibe when you get up in Linwood and Ham Lake.

So in that way, part of the district is more like Stillwater, and part of it is more like St. Francis.

That doesn't really explain how or why the school has had so little success at the state level. They only have 12 state team titles. One in wrestling (they were always good there), one in boys track, one in softball, and all the rest are in nordic or alpine skiing. 12 state titles in 114 years
I don't have a scientific or socio-economic explanation for this - and yes, open enrollment has had an impact.

but from my vantage point, it just seems as if some school districts just have better athletes. that's not something you can legislate. some programs just seem to have kids who are bigger, stronger, faster and more athletic.

Yes, coaching matters, off-season work in the weight room matters. having a generally positive attitude about sports matters.

but in the end, if the other team just has better athletes than your team, your team is probably going to lose. and I don't know how to fix that.

***P.S. - personal salute to Windom. went 2-6 this year playing a 1A schedule. 1st game in Section 3-AA playoffs, Windom as the #6 seed beats #3 seed Pipestone. 1st win over Pipestone in 13 years. 1st time Windom has advanced to the next round of the Section since 2015.
Churchill said that the army with the most divisions will almost always win. I think in small rural districts, success is almost directly attributable to turnout. Schools like New Ulm Cathedral and Wabasso for years punched above their weight in most sports, FB included, because nearly all eligible kids were out. But there is also a strong piece of what you are alluding to, certain towns seem to spit out better athletes. Springfield being one. It must be a good mix of German and Irish - industrious and combative. Wabasso, too, produced athletes but I think demographics are finally catching up. Years ago, Fulda seem to fit the same build. I swear they fielded a basketball team in my day of 12 or 13 guys that were all svelt 6'1"to 6'3" blond haired muscular athletic guys and were competitive in all sports but demographics seem to have caught up to Fulda years ago.

Big schools seem to have more complex issues, but even at 4A New Ulm, some modicum of success has come with a coach who has been able to get and keep kids out.
 

Culture also has a lot to do with it. Why is Hutchinson, a non-metro school of under 800 kids, always a power in football? A culture of excellence was created a long time ago, I assume by Grady Rosberg as well as an influential group of parents. The culture has continued with his son. Since creating this culture, boys who grow up in Hutchinson dream of becoming a varsity football player and high school football is in many ways the lifeblood of the town. This motivates kids in elementary school through high school to dedicate their time and energy to becoming a football player. The same culture of winning occurs in other sports in other communities, Warroad hockey as an example. Creating a winning culture is not an easy endeavor and in many schools and many athletics programs it just hasn't happened.
Good points. And you also see the culture change if a good coach leaves or retires. Cambridge-Isanti has never been the powerhouse they were when George Larson was the coach.

Forest Lake's only trip to state was when Mike Grant came back for three years before leaving for Eden Prairie. (Grant had two stints at FL separated by a stint at SJU)
 




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