If we look at free/reduced numbers - not always a great stat, but it's easily available - FLHS is at 24%. Stillwater HS is 19%, and White Bear is at ~28%. Centennial is 24% and Blaine is 36%.So it's not as if Forest Lake is a much poorer school than the surrounding large suburban districts. (I didn't include Cambridge, St. Francis, Chisago or North Branch - they are smaller).
FL is a really strange district. It's geographically very large. I knew kids in high school who lived SE of Hugo, some near Marine on St. Croix and Scandia, Some near Blaine, and some kids who lived west of Stacy, all in the FL district.
The wealth in the district tends to be on the east side and around Forest Lake (the lake itself) - the former Forest Lake Township, Scandia, and May. There are probably some more affluent people now in the new developments west towards Columbus, and north in Wyoming. But there are some really poor areas in the city itself, and a definite redneck vibe when you get up in Linwood and Ham Lake.
So in that way, part of the district is more like Stillwater, and part of it is more like St. Francis.
That doesn't really explain how or why the school has had so little success at the state level. They only have 12 state team titles. One in wrestling (they were always good there), one in boys track, one in softball, and all the rest are in nordic or alpine skiing. 12 state titles in 114 years
I don't have a scientific or socio-economic explanation for this - and yes, open enrollment has had an impact.
but from my vantage point, it just seems as if some school districts just have better athletes. that's not something you can legislate. some programs just seem to have kids who are bigger, stronger, faster and more athletic.
Yes, coaching matters, off-season work in the weight room matters. having a generally positive attitude about sports matters.
but in the end, if the other team just has better athletes than your team, your team is probably going to lose. and I don't know how to fix that.
***P.S. - personal salute to Windom. went 2-6 this year playing a 1A schedule. 1st game in Section 3-AA playoffs, Windom as the #6 seed beats #3 seed Pipestone. 1st win over Pipestone in 13 years. 1st time Windom has advanced to the next round of the Section since 2015.