2022-23 Gopher Hockey Season

bonin21

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Cooley and Snuggerud: Best Gopher freshman duo ever?

7 freshman have had 50 points. Both will look to hit that. 10 have hit 45 which both are close to.
 

bonin21

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Most likely the top line jumps to the NHL after the season is over and so will our top two D.
Knies: 99% gone
Cooley: 98% gone
Snuggerud: 50% gone
Faber: 100% gone
Lacombe: 100% gone
Johnson: 100% gone

This is the year.
 

PMWinSTP

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Most likely the top line jumps to the NHL after the season is over and so will our top two D.
I wonder if they don't get the title, would they come back for another try? Not sure what they are getting in NIL...
 


GopherPete

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Knies for sure gone. I'd like to see Cooley back but know that is not likely. I think Snuggy should stay another year, work on his skating. Also saw comments from the Blues that because of their situation they are fine to let their top prospects develop a bit before bringing them up.
 




Gophers1992

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Cooley's a way better prospect than Caufield was, and has been way better as a freshman than Caufield was. He would probably benefit from a second year, but I doubt it's happening. I'd say about 85% he goes pro.
 

Gophers1992

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Anyone know what the scenarios are for us to maintain #1 in the PWR? Looking at RPI it would seem like Quinnipiac is the only team who could reasonably catch us, but I won't pretend to know all of the math involved.
 



pharmacygopher

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Anyone know what the scenarios are for us to maintain #1 in the PWR? Looking at RPI it would seem like Quinnipiac is the only team who could reasonably catch us, but I won't pretend to know all of the math involved.
I came here to ask the exact same thing.

For example, if they split with OSU and lost in the semis would they fall out of 1st?
 

cemba99

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I came here to ask the exact same thing.

For example, if they split with OSU and lost in the semis would they fall out of 1st?
I'll be the first to admit that I'm no expert of pairwise. Part of the challenge is not just how MN plays in their next 3 or (hopefully) 4 games, but how Quinnipiac (and other schools) play as well. The linked chart summarizes some 20,000 simulations for the remainder of the season. It appears that 68% of the time the Gophers stay at #1, 31% of the time they slip to #2 - which almost assures them of a 1 or 2 seed some 99% of the time. This chart was updated through last nights games. https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/probabilityMatrix.php
 





bonin21

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Maybe other results impacted.

Hey, maybe Alaska will get in and the bottom two will be RIT and Alaska and we won't feel as frustrated if we get the 2 seed. Sure the Wisconsin loss didn't help.
 


upnorthkid

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Yes, and yes... It's not 50/50.
i think it's hard to say it that simply. I don't think it's as high as the 98% you quoted prior. the yotes are not even remotely close to contending. They have until 2026 to sign him. They're prospect pool is bad, as is their whole roster. I think if there's pressure for him to sign, it will come from Cooley rather than the other way around and it's hard to say how amped up he will be for a team that will suck. Wouldn't be at all surprised to have them want him to stay at MN for another year while they continue the rebuild and let him develop while having the chance to work on his defensive skills as well.

Snuggerud I would put lower than 50/50 as can't see the Blues wanting him after they just unloaded the whole team for a rebuild.

Agree that Knies is all but gone. Would imagine the same for all the D you listed.
 

bonin21

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i think it's hard to say it that simply. I don't think it's as high as the 98% you quoted prior. the yotes are not even remotely close to contending. They have until 2026 to sign him. They're prospect pool is bad, as is their whole roster. I think if there's pressure for him to sign, it will come from Cooley rather than the other way around and it's hard to say how amped up he will be for a team that will suck. Wouldn't be at all surprised to have them want him to stay at MN for another year while they continue the rebuild and let him develop while having the chance to work on his defensive skills as well.

Snuggerud I would put lower than 50/50 as can't see the Blues wanting him after they just unloaded the whole team for a rebuild.

Agree that Knies is all but gone. Would imagine the same for all the D you listed.
Interviews with Cooley have made it pretty clear he's trying to get to the NHL asap.
 

upnorthkid

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Interviews with Cooley have made it pretty clear he's trying to get to the NHL asap.
like I said, I think it depends on what they're doing. I'd probably put it at about 75/25 he's gone. Track record would say he'd play 2 years and gone right at the end of Soph year based on what recent top flight picks have done. I don't think the Yotes will be in any hurry to start having his contract roll with them, and Cooley doesn't get much leverage until probably 2025 given how long they have his rights. Obviously if things change and they think they can contend or that he think he's ready to be their top line center (and that they're ready to spend big in the offseason), then that changes things. I just am not seeing it as that aggressive they want him to be there, even if he's hoping to start that clock.
 

Gophers1992

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I'm saying 85% Cooley is gone, Snuggerud 60/40 leaning towards returning. No inside info, just my best guesses.
 

bonin21

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Track record would say he'd play 2 years and gone right at the end of Soph year based on what recent top flight picks have done.
What? Later I'll pull it, but you will not see that for top 5 forwards, top 10 forwards, or even probably top 15 forwards. They've been mostly one and lately, especially if they put up points like Cooley. Don't count the extra years Michigan gets out of their guys before they are drafted.
 

upnorthkid

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What? Later I'll pull it, but you will not see that for top 5 forwards, top 10 forwards, or even probably top 15 forwards. They've been mostly one and lately, especially if they put up points like Cooley. Don't count the extra years Michigan gets out of their guys before they are drafted.
The Michigan group from last year, Caulfield, Coranato, Sanderson l (I know you said forwards) all within the last couple years. I’d suspect Lucius would still be playing college if things had gone differently with the family situation. It all just depends on the circumstances they’re coming into. Just was trying to say it’s not as much an absolute given they jump after one year as it used to be. Track record probably not the right way to phrase that. Maybe the recency is all coming from the Covid situation. Maybe not.
 

bonin21

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The Michigan group from last year, Caulfield, Coranato, Sanderson l (I know you said forwards) all within the last couple years. I’d suspect Lucius would still be playing college if things had gone differently with the family situation. It all just depends on the circumstances they’re coming into. Just was trying to say it’s not as much an absolute given they jump after one year as it used to be. Track record probably not the right way to phrase that. Maybe the recency is all coming from the Covid situation. Maybe not.
You're not looking apples to apples. Michigan got a pre draft year out of them. Caulfield and Coronato were not top ten.
 

upnorthkid

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You're not looking apples to apples. Michigan got a pre draft year out of them. Caulfield and Coronato were not top ten.
If you’re only talking top ten, the sample size is then tiny. So yes sure then fine, that’s completely fair and you’re right as I’m thinking mostly of dmen who have stayed the extra year
 

bonin21

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Going back to 2011.

1-10 Forwards
Beniers - 2nd- One year post draft
Eichel - 2nd - Zero years post draft
Tkachuk - 4th - Zero years
Turcotte - 5th - One year
Johnson - 5th- One year
Keller - 7th - One year
Mittelstadt - 8th - One year
Zegras - 9th - One year
Boucher - 10th - One year


11-20 Forwards
Wahlstrom - 11th - One year
Boldy - 12th - Two years
Coronato - 13th - Two years so far
Holloway - 14th - One year
Farabee - 14th - One year
Kunin - 15th - One year
Caufield - 15th - Two years
Larkin - 15th - One year
Connor - 17th - One year
Newhook - 16th - Two years
Lucius - 18th - One year
Tuch - 18th - Two years
Bellows - 19th - One year
Norris - 19th - Two years
O'Brien - 19th - Four years
Schmaltz - 20th - Two years

Cooley is gone.
 
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Gophers1992

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Going back to 2016.

1-10 Forwards
Beniers - 2nd- One year post draft
Tkachuk - 4th - Zero years post draft
Turcotte - 5th - One year
Johnson - 5th- One year
Keller - 7th - One year
Mittelstadt - 8th - One year
Zegras - 9th - One year
Boucher - 10th - One year


11-20 Forwards
Wahlstrom - 11th - One year
Boldy - 12th - Two years
Coronato - 13th - Two years so far
Holloway - 14th - One year
Farabee - 14th - One year
Kunin - 15th - One year
Caufield - 15th - Two years
Newhook - 16th - Two years
Lucius - 18th - One year
Bellows - 19th - One year
Norris - 19th - Two years
O'Brien - 19th - Four years

Cooley is gone.
Didn't Holloway do two years? Not disputing your overall point at all, I just thought he was in the same class as Caufield.
 

bonin21

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Didn't Holloway do two years? Not disputing your overall point at all, I just thought he was in the same class as Caufield.
He did one year post draft. He came in early like Beniers/Johnson/Fantilli.

Gophers may look to do that with Eiserman. BU is doing it with Celebrini. But that does not apply to Cooley whatsoever.
 

Gophers1992

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Didn't Holloway do two years? Not disputing your overall point at all, I just thought he was in the same class as Caufield.
And a quick fact check shows I was wrong. He did play two years, but only one post-draft. My mistake.
 

Gophers1992

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He did one year post draft. He came in early like Beniers/Johnson/Fantilli.
Yep I caught myself just after you replied. Thanks for the correction.

off topic but I thought Holloway would have made more of an impact in the NHL by now. I was always impressed with him at UW.
 

bonin21

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Yep I caught myself just after you replied. Thanks for the correction.

off topic but I thought Holloway would have made more of an impact in the NHL by now. I was always impressed with him at UW.
I believe he has had injury problems.
 

cemba99

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FWIW - new NCAA men's D-I hockey polls are out, Minnesota barely pulls ahead of Quinnipiac to be #1 in both USCHO and USA Today polls. Both teams got identical numbers of 1st place votes in both polls, but MN managed to squeak by with a few more second place votes on each poll. Since Denver lost a game over the weekend to UMD, they are now a distant third in both polls (and no longer getting any first place votes).
 




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