2020-2021 recruiting misses

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Hates Monikers

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I've been wondering how we got here. You would think the sweet 2019 season would've jump-started recruiting. I looked at the two classes that followed 2019 -- first, because they should've been really nice classes and second, because many or most should be contributing by now. They're basically seniors/redshirt juniors and juniors/redshirt sophomores. I say "basically," because the 2020 guys get an extra year and can be back.

Both classes ranked #38 nationally in the 247 composite. I was going to see how many were actually contributing. What I found is that a high percentage of those still here are on the field. Unfortunately, many are no longer here.
  • 2020: We recruited 25, including one transfer; 14 are no longer here.
  • 2021: We recruited 25, including seven transfers; 14 are no longer here, although several were transfers whose eligibility expired. (Out of 18 high school recruits, eight are gone.)
I know there's always attrition, but this seems like a lot. It seems to me Fleck evaluated poorly in many cases and brought in too many players who did not buy into his culture. Those who stayed are pretty good, but when you talk about issues with depth, this is a big reason.

2020

Itayvion Brown, ILB
Jah Joyner, WDE
Ky Thomas, RB
Douglas Emilien, WR
Danny Striggow, WDE
Daniel Jackson, WR
Lucas Finnessy, OLB
Martes Lewis, OT
Cody Lindenberg, OLB
Jonathan Mann, WR
Gage Keys, SDE
Abner Dubar, S
Jalen Logan-Redding, WDE
Michael Dixon, S
Ali Saad, DT
JaQwondis Burns, OLB
Aireontae Ersery, OT
Jalen Glaze, S
Miles Fleming, CB
Tyrell Lawrence, OG
Victor Pless, CB
Austin Henderson, TE
Melle Kreuder, SDE
Mark Crawford, P
Transfer
Austin Sullivan (transfer), LS
25 in, 14 gone

2021

Bucky Irving, RB
Deven Eastern, SDE
Athan Kaliakmanis,QB
Steven Ortiz, CB
Jacob Schuster, DL
Cameron James, OT
Logan Purcell, OT
Austin Booker, DL
Saia Mapakaitolo, OT
Brady Boyd, WR
Darius Green, S
Lemeke Brockington, WR
Justin Walley, CB
Devon Williams, OLB
Jameson Geers, TE
Luther McCoy, DL
Dylan McGill, WR
Dino Kaliakmanis, WR
18 in, 8 gone

Transfers
Will Mobley, K
Matthew Trickett, K
Karter Shaw, OG
Nyles Pinckney, DT
Val Martin, DT
Dylan Wright, WR
Jack Gibbens, ILB
25 in, 14 gone
 


This is partial picture. 2 years does not make a full cycle of where deficiencies are. Those that are still here have multiple years of eligibility and most are contributing. I think the 2019 and 2022 class are also important to look at for a better picture.

He knows talent based on the contributions these players are making. We are thin and lack depth due to guys leaving.
 

Hates Monikers said:
I've been wondering how we got here. You would think the sweet 2019 season would've jump-started recruiting. I looked at the two classes that followed 2019 -- first, because they should've been really nice classes and second, because many or most should be contributing by now. They're basically seniors/redshirt juniors and juniors/redshirt sophomores. I say "basically," because the 2020 guys get an extra year and can be back.

Both classes ranked #38 nationally in the 247 composite. I was going to see how many were actually contributing. What I found is that a high percentage of those still here are on the field. Unfortunately, many are no longer here.
  • 2020: We recruited 25, including one transfer; 14 are no longer here.
  • 2021: We recruited 25, including seven transfers; 14 are no longer here, although several were transfers whose eligibility expired. (Out of 18 high school recruits, eight are gone.)
I know there's always attrition, but this seems like a lot. It seems to me Fleck evaluated poorly in many cases and brought in too many players who did not buy into his culture. Those who stayed are pretty good, but when you talk about issues with depth, this is a big reason.

2020

Itayvion Brown, ILB
Jah Joyner, WDE
Ky Thomas, RB
Douglas Emilien, WR
Danny Striggow, WDE
Daniel Jackson, WR
Lucas Finnessy, OLB
Martes Lewis, OT
Cody Lindenberg, OLB
Jonathan Mann, WR
Gage Keys, SDE
Abner Dubar, S
Jalen Logan-Redding, WDE
Michael Dixon, S
Ali Saad, DT
JaQwondis Burns, OLB
Aireontae Ersery, OT
Jalen Glaze, S
Miles Fleming, CB
Tyrell Lawrence, OG
Victor Pless, CB
Austin Henderson, TE
Melle Kreuder, SDE
Mark Crawford, P
Transfer
Austin Sullivan (transfer), LS
25 in, 14 gone
2021

Bucky Irving, RB
Deven Eastern, SDE
Athan Kaliakmanis,QB
Steven Ortiz, CB
Jacob Schuster, DL
Cameron James, OT
Logan Purcell, OT
Austin Booker, DL
Saia Mapakaitolo, OT
Brady Boyd, WR
Darius Green, S
Lemeke Brockington, WR
Justin Walley, CB
Devon Williams, OLB
Jameson Geers, TE
Luther McCoy, DL
Dylan McGill, WR
Dino Kaliakmanis, WR
18 in, 8 gone

Transfers
Will Mobley, K
Matthew Trickett, K
Karter Shaw, OG
Nyles Pinckney, DT
Val Martin, DT
Dylan Wright, WR
Jack Gibbens, ILB
25 in, 14 gone
Click to expand...
Always interesting to see stuff like this. It is a big reason why recruiting rankings on signing day are pretty worthless until you see what happens with the class over time.

Couple other things to factor into this - first and foremost COVID was a major factor in evaluations and recruiting for 2020. Teams didn't have seasons, you couldn't travel, basically everything was upended.

And the second thing is that attrition has always been high but it is off the charts right now with the explosion of the transfer portal and immediate eligibility. I feel pretty confident that you could do this for the vast majority of teams right now and see very similar numbers in terms of guys leaving or not panning out.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
This is partial picture. 2 years does not make a full cycle of where deficiencies are. Those that are still here have multiple years of eligibility and most are contributing. I think the 2019 and 2022 class are also important to look at for a better picture.

He knows talent based on the contributions these players are making. We are thin and lack depth due to guys leaving.
Click to expand...
And, another way to look at it, he and staff don't identify talent that well because few of the recruits are here and contributing, and we are thin and lack depth due to guy's leaving because they couldn't play at this level. Other than Bucky and Dixon, not many contributing at other schools who have left.

While some of it may not be buying into the culture, they knew what they were getting into. I think PJs schtick is corny, but every coach has expectations once you are there - no matter who it is, you largely know what you are getting into when you commit. And, every coach has a couple of people who say "this isn't for me" once they are there. I think the bigger issue is a lot of these players weren't ready to play at this level.
 


Interesting, but I'm not sure it's a useful or productive topic.

Tons of players are leaving most programs. It's the new normal. Plus, our coach is like black licorice - not for everyone, as he likes to say.

Winning and projecting a positive image for the University are the twin bottom lines. He has been winning the last few years, and he has bought some leeway.
 

MNVCGUY said:
Always interesting to see stuff like this. It is a big reason why recruiting rankings on signing day are pretty worthless until you see what happens with the class over time.

Couple other things to factor into this - first and foremost COVID was a major factor in evaluations and recruiting for 2020. Teams didn't have seasons, you couldn't travel, basically everything was upended.

And the second thing is that attrition has always been high but it is off the charts right now with the explosion of the transfer portal and immediate eligibility. I feel pretty confident that you could do this for the vast majority of teams right now and see very similar numbers in terms of guys leaving or not panning out.
Click to expand...
This is true - kids want to play, and if they aren't seeing immediate results it is easy to leave. Still, we have a lot of players stepping to lower-level programs instead of lateral or better. The new environment also requires identifying transfer talent effectively. This year it looks like they simply missed on a couple of them. Last year we had a couple who were really good. Will be interesting how the next couple of years play out.
 

Groundbreaking stuff. Not sure PJ and Co even know this. Maybe send him the thread link?
 

Tucker32 said:
And, another way to look at it, he and staff don't identify talent that well because few of the recruits are here and contributing, and we are thin and lack depth due to guy's leaving because they couldn't play at this level. Other than Bucky and Dixon, not many contributing at other schools who have left.

While some of it may not be buying into the culture, they knew what they were getting into. I think PJs schtick is corny, but every coach has expectations once you are there - no matter who it is, you largely know what you are getting into when you commit. And, every coach has a couple of people who say "this isn't for me" once they are there. I think the bigger issue is a lot of these players weren't ready to play at this level.
Click to expand...
Part of the issue is the players move on and don't wait their turn which is something Fleck preaches. Unless he changes that formula kids are going to transfer before we know they can play at this level.

Keys and Booker would have contributed here. The DL is young with some depth and they left. There are LB's and DB's that left that would have played or started this year.

I don't think it was because they couldn't play at this level, it's more they didn't wait for their opportunity.

We're 5-6 due to the lack of depth more than talent at this point IMO.
 




Fleck wants to have at least 25 incoming players a year of possible, meaning at least an average of 4 players need to leave a recruiting class each year (25+21+17+13+9). That would mean the 2020 class should be around 12 gone and 2021 around 8. Based on that rough rule of thumb, 2021 has seen quite a bit more attrition than usual while 2020 is much closer to normal (but still a bit high).

The caveats to consider with those classes is the covid extra year did cause a bit of a roster bubble, so taking that into account I don't think I would consider 2020 much of an anomaly. 2021 is really the class where attrition is quite a bit out of the ordinary.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
This is partial picture. 2 years does not make a full cycle of where deficiencies are. Those that are still here have multiple years of eligibility and most are contributing. I think the 2019 and 2022 class are also important to look at for a better picture.

He knows talent based on the contributions these players are making. We are thin and lack depth due to guys leaving.
Click to expand...
Aren't guys leaving considered a miss? Players leave for a variety of reasons Doesn't part of that fall on PJ not picking the right fit or getting them in the right role?
 

WHB Brewer said:
Aren't guys leaving considered a miss? Players leave for a variety of reasons Doesn't part of that fall on PJ not picking the right fit or getting them in the right role?
Click to expand...
I feel by this logic you’re ignoring outside influence to players to transfer and asking Fleck to have kids fully developed into roles by year 2-3.

I don’t know what the solution is.
 



everybody knows my name said:
Winning and projecting a positive image for the University are the twin bottom lines.
Click to expand...
Yeah, it's great seeing what fine young men PJ has been bringing into the program. Definitely nice to see that none of his recruits, over the years, have seemed to be "train" enthusiasts.
 

The answer is....Covid. Period.

We have our first good season in 50 years...and then immediately everything is completely shut down. And then we have a total joke of a half-season...and everyone in the media completely forgets what Fleck did the season before and other lesser coaches are elevated above him.
 

What team in the West has depth? Based on the fact the West is putrid how could any of these teams have much quality depth?
 

MNVCGUY said:
Always interesting to see stuff like this. It is a big reason why recruiting rankings on signing day are pretty worthless until you see what happens with the class over time.

Couple other things to factor into this - first and foremost COVID was a major factor in evaluations and recruiting for 2020. Teams didn't have seasons, you couldn't travel, basically everything was upended.

And the second thing is that attrition has always been high but it is off the charts right now with the explosion of the transfer portal and immediate eligibility. I feel pretty confident that you could do this for the vast majority of teams right now and see very similar numbers in terms of guys leaving or not panning out.
Click to expand...
These things did affect other teams, not unique to the Gophers.
 

Hates Monikers said:
I've been wondering how we got here. You would think the sweet 2019 season would've jump-started recruiting. I looked at the two classes that followed 2019 -- first, because they should've been really nice classes and second, because many or most should be contributing by now. They're basically seniors/redshirt juniors and juniors/redshirt sophomores. I say "basically," because the 2020 guys get an extra year and can be back.

Both classes ranked #38 nationally in the 247 composite. I was going to see how many were actually contributing. What I found is that a high percentage of those still here are on the field. Unfortunately, many are no longer here.
  • 2020: We recruited 25, including one transfer; 14 are no longer here.
  • 2021: We recruited 25, including seven transfers; 14 are no longer here, although several were transfers whose eligibility expired. (Out of 18 high school recruits, eight are gone.)
I know there's always attrition, but this seems like a lot. It seems to me Fleck evaluated poorly in many cases and brought in too many players who did not buy into his culture. Those who stayed are pretty good, but when you talk about issues with depth, this is a big reason.

2020

Itayvion Brown, ILB
Jah Joyner, WDE
Ky Thomas, RB
Douglas Emilien, WR
Danny Striggow, WDE
Daniel Jackson, WR
Lucas Finnessy, OLB
Martes Lewis, OT
Cody Lindenberg, OLB
Jonathan Mann, WR
Gage Keys, SDE
Abner Dubar, S
Jalen Logan-Redding, WDE
Michael Dixon, S
Ali Saad, DT
JaQwondis Burns, OLB
Aireontae Ersery, OT
Jalen Glaze, S
Miles Fleming, CB
Tyrell Lawrence, OG
Victor Pless, CB
Austin Henderson, TE
Melle Kreuder, SDE
Mark Crawford, P
Transfer
Austin Sullivan (transfer), LS
25 in, 14 gone
2021

Bucky Irving, RB
Deven Eastern, SDE
Athan Kaliakmanis,QB
Steven Ortiz, CB
Jacob Schuster, DL
Cameron James, OT
Logan Purcell, OT
Austin Booker, DL
Saia Mapakaitolo, OT
Brady Boyd, WR
Darius Green, S
Lemeke Brockington, WR
Justin Walley, CB
Devon Williams, OLB
Jameson Geers, TE
Luther McCoy, DL
Dylan McGill, WR
Dino Kaliakmanis, WR
18 in, 8 gone

Transfers
Will Mobley, K
Matthew Trickett, K
Karter Shaw, OG
Nyles Pinckney, DT
Val Martin, DT
Dylan Wright, WR
Jack Gibbens, ILB
25 in, 14 gone
Click to expand...
Thanks for putting this together. I'm sure it took a bit of time to do so. Transfers are critical in the new world of college sports.
 

PMWinSTP said:
These things did affect other teams, not unique to the Gophers.
Click to expand...
Yep that’s why there are so many teams around .500 and not enough bowl eligible teams. Teams are all reshuffling each season.
 

MaxyJR1 said:
Yep that’s why there are so many teams around .500 and not enough bowl eligible teams. Teams are all reshuffling each season.
Click to expand...
I don't think there's any more teams around .500 than in the past. Did you do some analysis?
 

PMWinSTP said:
These things did affect other teams, not unique to the Gophers.
Click to expand...
Yep, which is why I said you could do this same breakdown and would see similar attrition at lots of schools.
 

All a result of the free transfer rule. It’ll be tough to stop it from continuing at a similar pace. Recruiting more local kids like they seem to be doing may help. Relying more on transfers and jucos may help some as well.
 


DinkytownDelight said:
Interesting tidbit I noticed is that Brady Boyd has only appeared in 1 game for TTU this year...

texastech.com

Brady Boyd - Football - Texas Tech Red Raiders

Brady Boyd (13) Wide Receiver - 2023 SEASON (JUNIOR) Redshirt season … utilized redshirt season following preseason decision between him and the coaching sta...
texastech.com texastech.com
Click to expand...
I saw him as I was going through this and I, too, looked up his stats to see how he's been doing. Not sure what happened this year, but even last year there were nine players with more receptions than him. I wonder if he would've fit in better here.
 



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