2019-2020 Minnesota Twins Off-Season Thread

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tmvander said:
Free agent market for starters isn't great. A few obvious names like Cole but a few of them like Darvish, Strausburg will likely have their options picked up by the Cubs/Nats. I think a guy like Cole Hamels is interesting but he's like 36 and isn't the same guy he was a few years ago even. He'd still likely be expensive and pitch less innings and have worse numbers than if we re signed Odo.

I think our only option to get a guy better than Berrios is through trade because the free agent market only has about 2 guys (Cole, Wheeler with Wheeler being about at that same level) and all teams will be in on them. That's why i'm hoping they grab a few free agent relievers and make a trade for a higher end starter.
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I agree with that approach. I saw a top free agent article and Odo was one of the top P available. I thought to myself, either is a bad free agent class or I didnt appreciate Odo enough.

I will say he if can pitch like he did in game 3 he will deserve a big money contract.

Obviously Cole will get his money, but its going to be interesting to see how much Wheeler gets. To your point, supply is low, and demand is high. Based off of that, the twins will have to give up a lot to get a starter or find a diamond in the rough.
 

JimmyJamesMD said:
I agree with that approach. I saw a top free agent article and Odo was one of the top P available. I thought to myself, either is a bad free agent class or I didnt appreciate Odo enough.

I will say he if can pitch like he did in game 3 he will deserve a big money contract.

Obviously Cole will get his money, but its going to be interesting to see how much Wheeler gets. To your point, supply is low, and demand is high. Based off of that, the twins will have to give up a lot to get a starter or find a diamond in the rough.
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My guess on the starters next year

P1 - Berrios
P2 - Odo
P3 - Smeltzer/Thorpe/Dobnak until Pineda is back
P4 - Free agent (Tanner Roark)
P5 - Smeltzer/Thorpe/Dobnak

My ideal pitching staff

P1 - Traded for player (maybe Mets listen on Syndergarrd or DeGrom, Sonny Gray, or Louis Castillo)
P2 - Berrios
P3 - Odo
P4 - Pineda - Smeltzer/Thorpe/Dobnak until he's back
P5 - Smeltzer/Thorpe/Dobnak

I'll add that the ideal pitching staff is highly unlikely but may be within the realm of possibility even considering we're the twins.
 
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Twins pick up Nelson Cruz’s 2020 option

In the least-shocking news that will happen today — including the sunrise/sunset report in the corner of the weather page — Jon Heyman reports that the Minnesota Twins will pick up Nelson Cruz‘s 2020 option. It will pay the slugger $12 million.

Cruz signed a one-year, $14.3 million deal with the Twins late last year with the $12 million option for next season. So, yeah, he’s actually taking a pay cut following a season in which he hit .311/.392/.639 with 41 homers and 108 runs batted in. He’s had better overall years when measured by WAR because he used to play defense, but 2019 was his best year measured by OPS+.

Still, the idea was that Cruz would, you know, age eventually and that his age 38 season might be a step down from his age 37 season and that his age 39 season — next year — would be even worse, thus justifying the declining pay scale. Having a career offensive year at an age when most guys are out of the league is not typical.

https://sports.yahoo.com/twins-pick-nelson-cruz-2020-150555241.html

Win Twins!!
 

tmvander said:
My guess on the starters next year

P1 - Berrios
P2 - Odo
P3 - Smeltzer/Thorpe/Dobnak until Pineda is back
P4 - Free agent (Tanner Roark)
P5 - Smeltzer/Thorpe/Dobnak

My ideal pitching staff

P1 - Traded for player (maybe Mets listen on Syndergarrd or DeGrom, Sonny Gray, or Louis Castillo)
P2 - Berrios
P3 - Odo
P4 - Pineda - Smeltzer/Thorpe/Dobnak until he's back
P5 - Smeltzer/Thorpe/Dobnak

I'll add that the ideal pitching staff is highly unlikely but may be within the realm of possibility even considering we're the twins.
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I thought Pineda was a free agent? Are you predicting they sign him?

Also, i think Perez is back. They have an option and i bet they want one last chance to fix him.

I like your preferred rotation
 


JimmyJamesMD said:
Sano definitely improved. But Saintpaul guy is making some good points.

Sano feasted on weak pitching. How often did he have a great at bat against a good pitcher? He always tried to kill it, which is horrible situational hitting. That based loaded situation he should have been trying to get good wood on it and not blasting it to the moon. That sitation calls for changing his approach. But he never changes his approach.

Arreaz got a double to the gap in game 3 against a hard thrower because he flicked his wrists. Sano tries to pull almost everything. We he doesnt try to pull, hes money. But he tries to pull 95% of the time, and swing as hard as he can.

It might be time to sell high here.
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Sano definitely made a dramatic improvement in his plate discipline the 2nd half. However, when in high leverage spots, I think he can't help but revert to trying to hit a 500 foot HR to left. Also, at the end of the day, I don't trust to him stay in great shape or age well. I simply don't see him as a Twin past 2021, as I don't think we will pay what he will command as a free agent. So if you can get good value for him, you have to consider it. It's not that hard to find a DH who can hit you 25-30 HR which is what he may be long-term.
 

JimmyJamesMD said:
I'm not in favor of trading Rosario unless twins get offer they cant refuse. I'm a big believer in clubhouse chemistry, and hes a part of the core in my mind. He is one of the leaders on the team

I do not want Cron back. I understand his thumb was hurting. But he is another pull happy guy that can hit off of weak pitching. Surely we can do better than that.

Any thoughts about Garver at first base? Not impressed with his catching skills.

Any thoughts on starting pitching? Gerrit Cole would be great, but so risky to give a P $25-30 mil per year. But you also need a true ace. Is Berrios that? I think he is a good #2, but not your ace. I'd love Smeltzer and or Randy Dobnak to get a shot at in the rotation. Perez is an enigma. I think they'll bring him back. I think he has really good stuff, but has a tough time locating his pitches and makes too many mistakes

Bullpen turned out to be good. Duffey and May have found their niche. Hopefully sign romo for one year. They need a lefty besides rodgers.
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I'm not sure I buy "Eddie is a great leader". More than any other player, he's the one who didn't run out doubles because he thought they were HR's, dropped pop-ups, made wild throw trying to throw guys out when he had no chance and showed zero plate discipline. He makes a lot of great plays. And a lot of boneheaded ones. I think Cruz was the most influential on the clubhouse. I'm also not sure how much it matters in MLB.

I agree on Cron. He's OK. But probably not worth $7-8 million he'd get in arbitration. Garver's not great at catcher, but just like Mauer, you hurt his value if you move him. Nobody really runs anymore, so as long as he's not giving up 3 passed balls per game, I'm fine with him catching. Besides who's going to catch then? Bring Castro back for $8 million to watch him hit .220? No thanks.

Cole is a long shot. But we can pay him $30 million +. The problem is that even if we match other offers he probably goes elsewhere. A trade for a #1/2 and a FA signing for a #3 is more likely.
 

tmvander said:
Free agent market for starters isn't great. A few obvious names like Cole but a few of them like Darvish, Strausburg will likely have their options picked up by the Cubs/Nats. I think a guy like Cole Hamels is interesting but he's like 36 and isn't the same guy he was a few years ago even. He'd still likely be expensive and pitch less innings and have worse numbers than if we re signed Odo.

I think our only option to get a guy better than Berrios is through trade because the free agent market only has about 2 guys (Cole, Wheeler with Wheeler being about at that same level) and all teams will be in on them. That's why i'm hoping they grab a few free agent relievers and make a trade for a higher end starter.
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Strasburg and Darvish have player options. Strasburg is expected to opt out.
 

JimmyJamesMD said:
I thought Pineda was a free agent? Are you predicting they sign him?

Also, i think Perez is back. They have an option and i bet they want one last chance to fix him.

I like your preferred rotation
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I think they should based off of what he'll cost and how he was performing down the stretch. We'll miss out on about a month and a half of him due to the suspension though.
 



Breakin' The Plane said:
Strasburg and Darvish have player options. Strasburg is expected to opt out.
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Yep both have player options and if Strasburg opts out he'll cost 25-28 mil a year and be out of the twins range anyway.
 

tmvander said:
Yep both have player options and if Strasburg opts out he'll cost 25-28 mil a year and be out of the twins range anyway.
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Supposedly they have ~$70 million to spend. It's not out of their price range.
 

howeda7 said:
Supposedly they have ~$70 million to spend. It's not out of their price range.
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Preaching to the choir. Should be able to afford Cole too but highly doubt they spend that money. Hope to God I'm wrong.
 

One thing on Pineda, I think he will be dirt cheap and they should re-sign him but I'm concerned about substance use. Someone was telling me (and I haven't confirmed this because I don't care that much) that he tested positive for the HCTZ a long time before he was actually suspended and that the players are first notified of the positive test before the league? This someone's theory was that once he was notified he tested positive he was using other performance enhancing substances during the stretch from when he was notified to when he was suspended, which also just happened to be his best stretch of pitching.

Now maybe he was using HCTZ to lose weight as he claimed, but it can also be used to help flush your system and cover up the use of other substances. The twins need to seriously find out if that is the case before they sign him again.
 



tmvander said:
Preaching to the choir. Should be able to afford Cole too but highly doubt they spend that money. Hope to God I'm wrong.
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Its always risky business giving that much money to a P. Twins cant call is a sunk cost like the yankees could if a pitcher goes down
 

JimmyJamesMD said:
Its always risky business giving that much money to a P. Twins cant call is a sunk cost like the yankees could if a pitcher goes down
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Yes they can, the Pohlads have more than enough money. Twins fans have been duped for too long while the pohlads just collect royally on mediocre or historically bad seasons. Twins fans need to revolt if they don't spend in the off season.
 

Pardon if someone's already posted this, but the front office is on record saying they're going after impact pitching in the off season. It's exciting to hear that. It's a far cry from the Terry Ryan tenure, when a disappointing playoff thumping would be followed by months of him biding his time while fan unrest blew over and blind optimism returned with the robins.

I could go on and on about the pending off season--and I eventually will--but I do want to return to a point that was discussed in the in-season thread: where do you get top-line starting pitchers? Using the World Series champion teams as a template...

1987
Frank Viola: homegrown
Bert Blyleven: trade (and yes, I know he was originally home grown)

1991
Scott Erickson: homegrown
Jack Morris: free agent
Kevin Tapani: trade

I think this explains itself and mirrors the question of where you get ANY of your players: a variety of sources. Berrios is the homegrown piece along with Graterol, provided he can add/refine the third pitch he'll need to be an effective starter. Pineda is a free agent piece (although it's not certain he'll return). Odorizzi is a trade product. So they already have a serviceable rotation with that variety of origin. Graterol has a huge ceiling as a starter, so he's a potential ace or #2. If you can add a #1 through free agency or trade, you have a potential 1/2 punch that can compete with anyone, besides a supporting rotation cast that are pretty darn good. If you can add two star starters, look out; that's a team that should be considered a legit championship contender.
 

bottlebass said:
One thing on Pineda, I think he will be dirt cheap and they should re-sign him but I'm concerned about substance use. Someone was telling me (and I haven't confirmed this because I don't care that much) that he tested positive for the HCTZ a long time before he was actually suspended and that the players are first notified of the positive test before the league? This someone's theory was that once he was notified he tested positive he was using other performance enhancing substances during the stretch from when he was notified to when he was suspended, which also just happened to be his best stretch of pitching.

Now maybe he was using HCTZ to lose weight as he claimed, but it can also be used to help flush your system and cover up the use of other substances. The twins need to seriously find out if that is the case before they sign him again.
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The fact that MLB reduced his suspension, which they rarely do, tells me he had something to support his claim that it was inadvertent.
 

JimmyJamesMD said:
Its always risky business giving that much money to a P. Twins cant call is a sunk cost like the yankees could if a pitcher goes down
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They can't afford multiple bad contracts, no. One won't kill them. The years are a bigger issue than the $. If they have to go beyond 6 it's almost certain to end badly. If they trade for Syndergaard and sign Mad Baum for 2-3 years that might be safer and net a similar result for 2020.
 

howeda7 said:
They can't afford multiple bad contracts, no. One won't kill them. The years are a bigger issue than the $. If they have to go beyond 6 it's almost certain to end badly. If they trade for Syndergaard and sign Mad Baum for 2-3 years that might be safer and net a similar result for 2020.
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I like Mad Bum but he's an NL guy who loves to hit too. I don't think he'll make the jump to the AL. He is an outdoors type of guy though so I wouldn't expect him to sign somewhere like LA, Chicago, Washington, etc.
 

One last thing about starting pitching. The Twins have the off season to get Jose Berrios straightened out, specifically 1) his perrennial late-season fatigue and 2) his mechanical problems. When we see Houston and other teams work wonders with reclamation projects and want the Twins to be able to accomplish similar things, you have to be able to start with your current players and reclaim them. The new coaching staff did a great job improving guys' mechanics and velocity, but Berrios continues to be an enigma on a few different levels.
 

tmvander said:
I like Mad Bum but he's an NL guy who loves to hit too. I don't think he'll make the jump to the AL. He is an outdoors type of guy though so I wouldn't expect him to sign somewhere like LA, Chicago, Washington, etc.
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Has any pitcher ever declined to sign with an AL team because he wouldn't be able to hit? Hell if it's a deal-breaker, I'd tell him he can DH once a month.
 
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I think Howie is on track.

So far, Falvine have shown a significant reluctance to sign pitchers to long-term deals. It's one thing to sign a younger player like Kepler to a 5-year deal.

But, signing a pitcher to a long-term deal can come back and bite you in the butt in a hurry.

I just do not expect the Twins to hand out one of these 7-year, $200-million deals. Not going to happen.

My gut says they will try to find a younger pitcher with the potential to become a #1 or #2 starter and try to trade for them - ideally while that player is still under team control for a couple of years.

As far as the position players, no long-term deals to anyone over 30. In a couple of years, guys like Schoop, Cron, etc will be gone and the Lewis, Kiriloff, Larnach and Rooker era will be underway.
 

howeda7 said:
Has any pitcher ever declined to sign with an AL team because he wouldn't be able to hit? Hell if it's a deal-breaker, I'd tell him he can DH once a month.
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No of course not...just think he would prefer NL teams.
 




Keith Law had the following note about Royce Lewis/other prospects in the AFL and instructional league. Have the Twins decided to move Lewis permanently? Or just trying to add position flexibility for him given Polanco's status at the big league club. Maybe I missed this completely...

"Twins outfielder Royce Lewis still has that huge leg kick and hitch that I think will continue to cause him problems at the plate. He did homer in the Fall Stars Game, ambushing a first-pitch fastball right down the middle after the previous hitter had walked on four straight pitches. The first overall pick in 2017 had a .290 OBP across two levels this year for the Twins. The move to the outfield seems to have gone well so far, at least."
 

golfing18now said:
Keith Law had the following note about Royce Lewis/other prospects in the AFL and instructional league. Have the Twins decided to move Lewis permanently? Or just trying to add position flexibility for him given Polanco's status at the big league club. Maybe I missed this completely...

"Twins outfielder Royce Lewis still has that huge leg kick and hitch that I think will continue to cause him problems at the plate. He did homer in the Fall Stars Game, ambushing a first-pitch fastball right down the middle after the previous hitter had walked on four straight pitches. The first overall pick in 2017 had a .290 OBP across two levels this year for the Twins. The move to the outfield seems to have gone well so far, at least."
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That OBP sucks
 

Anyone else getting satisfaction out of Yankees losing? I am

They are buckling under pressure. Makes me think of how the Twins played like they had everything to lose, but really had nothing to lose. Cant play scared or you will make mistakes
 

Shooter: Charley Walters: Could Twins make deal to get Gerrit Cole?

Could the Minnesota Twins, whose offseason priority is starting pitching, sign baseball’s best starter, free agent Gerrit Cole, this winter?

Look for the Twins, who have three free-agent starters, to at least make an offer to Cole, the Houston Astros’ right-hander who has won 23 of his past 24 decisions. But it would take a record signing for the club.

The free-agent market for Cole, 29, is estimated at about $230 million over seven years. The Twins aren’t going to do that. But there’s been buzz that $100 million for two years might be worth a try.

Cole, who never has had a serious arm injury, isn’t likely to turn down a guaranteed $230 million contract. But $50 million a year, even for two years, isn’t a bad deal.

Expected suitors for Cole include the Astros, who figure they have the next three years to seriously contend for a World Series championship. But the Astros already are committed to $66 million through 2021 to Justin Verlander, who is 36, and $64 million to Zack Greinke, who is 35.

The Rangers, Angels, Dodgers, Yankees and Phillies also are expected to enter the Cole sweepstakes.

https://www.twincities.com/2019/10/19/charley-walters-could-twins-make-deal-to-get-gerrit-cole/

Win Twins!!
 

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