2018 Minnesota Twins In-Season Thread

[bemidjigopher]

Exactly. What's the point of hanging on to these expiring contracts because you have a minuscule chance of sneaking into the playoffs where you would have no shot at a championship. The goal is to win a championship, and every action you take needs to be part of a long-term strategy to achieve that goal.

Yeah but youll never get there if you keep blowing it up Everytime you get close but don't win. The caps in hockey we're close for ten plus years, but they kept their core and ultimately won the cup. Iam sure five years ago people clammored to blow it up. I say **** that, I'd rather contend than watch a terrible product. If you have a good core figure out how to build off it

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[bemidjigopher]

Jake Cave is batting .312/.346/.558 in 26 games. And his defense is just fine. Buxton will figure it out in AAA, until that changes.

Cave can DH or play a corner outfield. Sano not here and Lomo brings less to the table than Buxston or Cave. Cave, Kepler and Rosario can rotate who plays in the field and who Dh's

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[GopherJake]

Yeah but youll never get there if you keep blowing it up Everytime you get close but don't win. The caps in hockey we're close for ten plus years, but they kept their core and ultimately won the cup. Iam sure five years ago people clammored to blow it up. I say **** that, I'd rather contend than watch a terrible product. If you have a good core figure out how to build off it

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100% agree. Bullpen help is number one need. Next biggest is to get Buxton and Sano productive. Those are two big holes, but there is a base of talent.

Cave can DH or play a corner outfield. Sano not here and Lomo brings less to the table than Buxston or Cave. Cave, Kepler and Rosario can rotate who plays in the field and who Dh's

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Agree to disagree. We'll soon see who is correct.

 

[JimmyJamesMD]

Yeah but youll never get there if you keep blowing it up Everytime you get close but don't win. The caps in hockey we're close for ten plus years, but they kept their core and ultimately won the cup. Iam sure five years ago people clammored to blow it up. I say **** that, I'd rather contend than watch a terrible product. If you have a good core figure out how to build off it

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Who are the Twins core?

 

[GopherJake]

Who are the Twins core?

Core: Rosario, Kepler, Berrios, Polanco

I hope they stay: Gibson, Escobar, Mauer (yep - at a reduced price tag), Dozier (qualifying offer)

Need more, but can be key: Buxton, Sano, Romero


Quick off the top-of-my-head. I probably missed some things. And sure, room for disagreement.

 

[WorkingMyTailOff]

Who are the Twins core?

Core right now does not look impressive but I would say Rosario, Polanco, Escobar, Kepler, and Sano.

 

[JimmyJamesMD]

Core right now does not look impressive but I would say Rosario, Polanco, Escobar, Kepler, and Sano.

I'll give you Rosario and Polanco.

I love Escobar, but he is pending FA.

Kepler - if he was going to take off, now would be the time. He's still young, but maybe a trip back AAA is in his future

Sano - can't count on him at this point

 

[Bad Gopher]

Yeah but youll never get there if you keep blowing it up Everytime you get close but don't win. The caps in hockey we're close for ten plus years, but they kept their core and ultimately won the cup. Iam sure five years ago people clammored to blow it up. I say **** that, I'd rather contend than watch a terrible product. If you have a good core figure out how to build off it

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I don't disagree. I'm not advocating blowing it up, and this year isn't a particularly good year to get trade value for assets because the playoff field is more set at this point than in most years. That said, basing decisions on clinging to unrealistic playoff hopes isn't smart either. The key is knowing how close you are to legitimate title contention, which involves a lot of things including avoiding self-delusion.

 

[bemidjigopher]

100% agree. Bullpen help is number one need. Next biggest is to get Buxton and Sano productive. Those are two big holes, but there is a base of talent.

Agree to disagree. We'll soon see who is correct.

Haha for sure.

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[howeda7]

Exactly. What's the point of hanging on to these expiring contracts because you have a minuscule chance of sneaking into the playoffs where you would have no shot at a championship. The goal is to win a championship, and every action you take needs to be part of a long-term strategy to achieve that goal.

Trading expiring contracts is not "blowing it up" IMO. Trading any of Rosario, Kepler, Berrios or even Gibson would be blowing it up and I'm not in favor. They can compete in 2019.

 

[short ornery norwegian]

I think it's a safe bet that Falvey and Levine have some type of long-term plan for the franchise. I just don't know what it is.

But, I suspect it will take several seasons and draft cycles in order for them to really put their stamp on the franchise at all levels. We know they've added a lot of front-office personnel in the analytics department. I'm not sure how much they've done with the farm system, but you can logically expect they have changes they want to make there.

So, what does it all mean? this team is going to be a work in progress for another 2 or 3 years at least. If they can find a way to at least stay in contention for a playoff spot, great. but my gut tells me that Falvey and Levine don't really expect this team to make a real run until maybe 2020. Figure out who stays and goes in the pitching staff, and get Lewis, Gordon, Kiriloff, Rooker, and some of the other top prospect up here to team with a (hopefully) reworked Buxton and Sano.

As far as this year, if they can get any value for veterans, they'll move them. but it has to be for something of value. no sense just giving guys away.

 

[Breakin' The Plane]

Trading expiring contracts is not "blowing it up" IMO. Trading any of Rosario, Kepler, Berrios or even Gibson would be blowing it up and I'm not in favor. They can compete in 2019.

Thinking the same thing. There's a reason that the majority of players who get dealt at the deadline are rentals. You maximize your available assets if you aren't in a position to contend (and even sometimes if you're in contention).
That said, it looks like Machado will be dealt to the Dodgers in short fashion. This, coupled with the way Dozier is hitting, makes him even more valuable.

 

[GophersInIowa]

I think it's a safe bet that Falvey and Levine have some type of long-term plan for the franchise. I just don't know what it is.

But, I suspect it will take several seasons and draft cycles in order for them to really put their stamp on the franchise at all levels. We know they've added a lot of front-office personnel in the analytics department. I'm not sure how much they've done with the farm system, but you can logically expect they have changes they want to make there.

So, what does it all mean? this team is going to be a work in progress for another 2 or 3 years at least. If they can find a way to at least stay in contention for a playoff spot, great. but my gut tells me that Falvey and Levine don't really expect this team to make a real run until maybe 2020. Figure out who stays and goes in the pitching staff, and get Lewis, Gordon, Kiriloff, Rooker, and some of the other top prospect up here to team with a (hopefully) reworked Buxton and Sano.

As far as this year, if they can get any value for veterans, they'll move them. but it has to be for something of value. no sense just giving guys away.

I agree with that. I think they'll try to make several trades at the end of the month.

 

[Bad Gopher]

<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
What this tells me:

The Twins weren't nearly as good talent-wise last year as their record seemed to indicate. They were further away from true contention than it was tempting to believe. Numbers guys like Falvey and Levine knew that or should have known that. This year's record isn't a huge surprise considering the injuries and the bombs that have been the Lynn and Morrison signings. My conclusion: don't be too discouraged by the W/L this year. The young talent level in the organization is increasing, and there are a lot of promising players in the pipeline. Expensive/overpriced players are going to be coming off the books soon.

The disturbing dark side: they will never be true championship contenders unless and until the offensive superstars (Sano, Buxton) realize their potential. I'm not sure that's looking likely at this point. My advice to Derek and Thad: put every conceivable resource into Sano and Buxton to get them on track in their rehabilitation, development and ongoing health.

 

[howeda7]

<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
What this tells me:

The Twins weren't nearly as good talent-wise last year as their record seemed to indicate. They were further away from true contention than it was tempting to believe. Numbers guys like Falvey and Levine knew that or should have known that. This year's record isn't a huge surprise considering the injuries and the bombs that have been the Lynn and Morrison signings. My conclusion: don't be too discouraged by the W/L this year. The young talent level in the organization is increasing, and there are a lot of promising players in the pipeline. Expensive/overpriced players are going to be coming off the books soon.

The disturbing dark side: they will never be true championship contenders unless and until the offensive superstars (Sano, Buxton) realize their potential. I'm not sure that's looking likely at this point. My advice to Derek and Thad: put every conceivable resource into Sano and Buxton to get them on track in their rehabilitation, development and ongoing health.

Last year's team was a tad lucky. This year's team has been pretty unlucky. Agreed. I still think Sano will be a 30 HR guy, but maybe never hit .300 or even .280 like we hoped. I'm afraid Buxton is turning into Kevin Kiermeyer which is a shame. But I think an offense built around Rosario, Kepler, Royce Lewis, Escobar etc. can still be a solid contender. This isn't the NBA, and I don't think the Astros can keep cranking out 100 + win teams indefinitely.

 

[GopherJake]

I'm guessing one-run and walk-off losses are up significantly this season. Flip those numbers and I bet we lead the division.

 

[GophersInIowa]

<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
What this tells me:

The Twins weren't nearly as good talent-wise last year as their record seemed to indicate. They were further away from true contention than it was tempting to believe. Numbers guys like Falvey and Levine knew that or should have known that. This year's record isn't a huge surprise considering the injuries and the bombs that have been the Lynn and Morrison signings. My conclusion: don't be too discouraged by the W/L this year. The young talent level in the organization is increasing, and there are a lot of promising players in the pipeline. Expensive/overpriced players are going to be coming off the books soon.

The disturbing dark side: they will never be true championship contenders unless and until the offensive superstars (Sano, Buxton) realize their potential. I'm not sure that's looking likely at this point. My advice to Derek and Thad: put every conceivable resource into Sano and Buxton to get them on track in their rehabilitation, development and ongoing health.

The Twins averaged 5.7 runs scored a game over the last 68 games compared to less than 4.6 over the first 94. That was the main difference.

 

[Ski U Mah Gopher]

I'll give you Rosario and Polanco.

I love Escobar, but he is pending FA.

Kepler - if he was going to take off, now would be the time. He's still young, but maybe a trip back AAA is in his future

Sano - can't count on him at this point

If they can't get a player equivalent to a sandwich pick for Escobar, they have to keep him and give him a QO.

 

[Bad Gopher]

If they can't get a player equivalent to a sandwich pick for Escobar, they have to keep him and give him a QO.

I'm all for this.

 

[Breakin' The Plane]

If they can't get a player equivalent to a sandwich pick for Escobar, they have to keep him and give him a QO.

That's the thing (and also with Dozier). Do you trust the front office to make the pick, or would you rather take a chance on a player that another team has evaluated and picked signed by trading for them. Of course with that, you have to question why the other team is willing to part ways as well.

 

[howeda7]

That's the thing (and also with Dozier). Do you trust the front office to make the pick, or would you rather take a chance on a player that another team has evaluated and picked signed by trading for them. Of course with that, you have to question why the other team is willing to part ways as well.

There's a decent chance that both Escobar and Dozier will take the qualifying offer. I've seen that it will be ~$17.5 million (that seems high). But if that is correct, that is likely more than either of them will get in FA. The risk you take is being stuck paying the two of them $35 million next season, and blocking Nick Gordon in the process. I would do it with Escobar if they can't sign him to an extension. But I would not risk it with Dozier. Unless they are within 5 games or so on 7/31, trade him for whatever you can get.

 

[Ogee Ogilthorpe]

There's a decent chance that both Escobar and Dozier will take the qualifying offer. I've seen that it will be ~$17.5 million (that seems high). But if that is correct, that is likely more than either of them will get in FA. The risk you take is being stuck paying the two of them $35 million next season, and blocking Nick Gordon in the process. I would do it with Escobar if they can't sign him to an extension. But I would not risk it with Dozier. Unless they are within 5 games or so on 7/31, trade him for whatever you can get.

Agree with some of this, although Gordon is 22 years old and hitting .246 right now. Him starting the year in Rochester next spring isn't the end of the world. More than likely he would be up plenty in 2019 regardless, maybe even most of the season depending on injuries, trade, etc.

 

[WorkingMyTailOff]

Objects in your mirror are closer than they appear Cleveland!
Hoping Santana and Buxton can help to make a push in the second half.

 

[howeda7]

Agree with some of this, although Gordon is 22 years old and hitting .246 right now. Him starting the year in Rochester next spring isn't the end of the world. More than likely he would be up plenty in 2019 regardless, maybe even most of the season depending on injuries, trade, etc.

True. But I also think Sano can continue to play 3B if they keep Mauer around for next year, which would push Escobar to 2nd.

 

[Breakin' The Plane]

There's a decent chance that both Escobar and Dozier will take the qualifying offer. I've seen that it will be ~$17.5 million (that seems high). But if that is correct, that is likely more than either of them will get in FA. The risk you take is being stuck paying the two of them $35 million next season, and blocking Nick Gordon in the process. I would do it with Escobar if they can't sign him to an extension. But I would not risk it with Dozier. Unless they are within 5 games or so on 7/31, trade him for whatever you can get.

Yeah, but they also have next to nothing on the books for salary next year. Mauer comes off, Lynn will be gone, they'll likely decline their option on Santana. Going to be very interesting to see what direction they take this.

 

[Bad Gopher]

Baseball Prospectus making a strong case for the Twins getting a high price in return for Ryan Pressly. After reading, I'd say be open to trading him but only if you can get an 'A' prospect in return. I see him as a guy that can slide into a primary setup role with a contending team and be a difference in a World Series run. Think: the difference Juan Berenguer or Keith Atherton made in the 1987 stretch run and playoffs.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/...-cant-help-falling-in-love-with-ryan-pressly/

 

[howeda7]

Baseball Prospectus making a strong case for the Twins getting a high price in return for Ryan Pressly. After reading, I'd say be open to trading him but only if you can get an 'A' prospect in return. I see him as a guy that can slide into a primary setup role with a contending team and be a difference in a World Series run. Think: the difference Juan Berenguer or Keith Atherton made in the 1987 stretch run and playoffs.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/...-cant-help-falling-in-love-with-ryan-pressly/

I've had enough of Pressly. He's brilliant one outing and trash the next. If they can get decent return, I'd trade him. He's only a couple years from FA.

 

[howeda7]

Yeah, but they also have next to nothing on the books for salary next year. Mauer comes off, Lynn will be gone, they'll likely decline their option on Santana. Going to be very interesting to see what direction they take this.

Yes. But between Sano, Polanco, Dozier, Escobar, Nick Gordon, and Royce Lewis you're just creating an unnecessary back-log if you keep them both, IMO. I'd rather spend $$ on a true DH or a catcher unless they decide Sano is DH only going forward.

 

[BleedGopher]

Reusse: Brian Dozier has been a bargain for Twins from the beginning

Dozier brings another tremendous quality: He plays, and does so full-tilt. He never asks out of lineup; he asks in, even when he’s clearly hurting.

He also scores runs … the most underrated ability in baseball. As the stat crowd complained about Dozier leading off, he scored over 100 runs per season from 2014 through 2017.

Now, he is hitting down in the lineup, as well as not really hitting for half the season, and has 60 runs scored in 98 games. But he is also heating up — .298 in July, with five home runs, 17 RBI and 14 runs scored.

Last weekend, he had a hustle double that left Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash offering superlatives. On Sunday, he induced a balk that left the Rays grumbling, and then he came up with the bases loaded and a 7-7 tie in the bottom of the 10th.

Oh, oh … close and late. Dozier was going to pop up for sure.

Not quite. Grand slam. Close and done.

The Twins have gotten a bargain on Dozier from the start in July 2009. Now, a playoff contender is likely to get the same in July 2018 by choosing to acquire a quality second baseman.

http://www.startribune.com/brian-dozier-proved-to-be-bargain-for-twins-from-start/488569841/

Win Twins!!

 

[JimmyJamesMD]

Reusse: Brian Dozier has been a bargain for Twins from the beginning

Dozier brings another tremendous quality: He plays, and does so full-tilt. He never asks out of lineup; he asks in, even when he’s clearly hurting.

He also scores runs … the most underrated ability in baseball. As the stat crowd complained about Dozier leading off, he scored over 100 runs per season from 2014 through 2017.

Now, he is hitting down in the lineup, as well as not really hitting for half the season, and has 60 runs scored in 98 games. But he is also heating up — .298 in July, with five home runs, 17 RBI and 14 runs scored.

Last weekend, he had a hustle double that left Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash offering superlatives. On Sunday, he induced a balk that left the Rays grumbling, and then he came up with the bases loaded and a 7-7 tie in the bottom of the 10th.

Oh, oh … close and late. Dozier was going to pop up for sure.

Not quite. Grand slam. Close and done.

The Twins have gotten a bargain on Dozier from the start in July 2009. Now, a playoff contender is likely to get the same in July 2018 by choosing to acquire a quality second baseman.

http://www.startribune.com/brian-dozier-proved-to-be-bargain-for-twins-from-start/488569841/

Win Twins!!

I love Dozier too. I want to keep him, but I'm probably biased.