howieramone
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That's kind of how I see it.
2015 Projected Big Ten Tournament Bracket
- Thread starter SelectionSunday
- Start date
That's kind of how I see it.
Even if that's true, IIRC the B1G schedule is fairly favorable. So I don't think 9-9 is impossible in any case.
underground629
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I really don't understand your thought process on this. Why exactly is there a really good chance we're going to take a couple steps back next season? What about last night suggested that? We're losing one significant player in Austin. He will certainly be a big loss, but outside of him, tell me what position we shouldn't see improvement at. Pitino should also be a better coach after 1 year in the BT, being more used to his players, having more of his own players, and simply having a 2nd yr of HC experience.
Here are all the things that were going against us:
- We were missing our starting C and had exactly 1 true big man
- Joey and Mo were in foul trouble all night
- A retired Oto had to play huge minutes
- They had size on us at every position
- The refs were absolutely awful
- Really only Mathieu and Austin had good games
- We couldn't hit important FTs down the stretch to save our lives
And yet with all of this going against us, we pulled out the win. Minnesota teams almost never do that. That was huge. I don't care how ugly it got. We won. Wisconsin and MSU win crap games like that all the time, and that's a huge reason why they're always better than us. I'm actually surprised you weren't encouraged by the game. I'm really curious to hear how you drew your conclusion. Your other responses haven't really cleared things up. Limitations are exposed in just about every game for every team to an extent, we were shorthanded in this game, and next year's team will obviously be much different (additional players + improvement of current players and coacing > loss of one player).
Very well said
SS : Why do you see Michigan State not faltering?
They lose a lot of guys and a lot of mojo. I
doubt Tum Tum is their savior?
I agree. I think we will be better!
SS : Why do you see Michigan State not faltering?
They lose a lot of guys and a lot of mojo. I
doubt Tum Tum is their savior?
Gophers7NatTitlesBadgers0
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I disagree with Dekker coming back. He is a potential lottery pick if he comes out after this season. Kiminsky could use another year to get stronger, but I wouldn't be too surprised if he comes out either.
Winasota Gopher
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Special K has got to capitalize on all the hype and come out now. There is no way he replicates the media attention he is getting now next season. He is on top of the world.
SelectionSunday
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For the same reason I don't see Ohio State or Wisconsin faltering, and Michigan since Beilein was hired. They're just always there, no matter what personnel they lose or have returning, with the exception of the 2010-11 season when Sparty barely slid into the tournament.
Am not all doom & gloom on the Gophers for 2014-15. Just saying it's possible next season could be a step back, or another season mirroring this one, teetering just above, at, or just below the bubble with a finish somewhere between 6th and 8th.
SelectionSunday
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I agree that Kaminsky's number never will be hotter. That's what he'll have to weigh after the season. I think there's a better chance Kaminsky leaves than Dekker. Worlds of talent, but Dekker needs more seasoning. He's pretty much become an afterthought during the tournament with the great/solid play of Kaminsky, Brust, Jackson, Hayes, etc. Half the time Dekker has that "deer in headlights" look, and appears way too willing to defer to his teammates. Another year under Bo certainly would do him a lot of good because with Bo's history you know his guys will get better every season.
WanderingGopher
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Unfortunately, I don't think Dekker or Kaminsky will leave early, because I don't think the people that matter (actual NBA scouts) see them as high draft picks, especially in this loaded draft. Wisconsin's going to look good on paper next year ... but who knows, maybe it's their turn to have some in-season injury problems like us this year.
If Stauskas *or* Glenn Robinson come back, I'd put Michigan as the team to beat next year. They'll still have Levert, Irvin, Walton, and McGary might be the best post in the country.
I think some of the other teams will jump Ohio State and MSU (if Harris leaves) ... despite their pedigree, those two just won't have the players they typically do. Though I suppose that could change during the transfer season.
If Stauskas *or* Glenn Robinson come back, I'd put Michigan as the team to beat next year. They'll still have Levert, Irvin, Walton, and McGary might be the best post in the country.
I think some of the other teams will jump Ohio State and MSU (if Harris leaves) ... despite their pedigree, those two just won't have the players they typically do. Though I suppose that could change during the transfer season.
howieramone
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I just took a very quick look, but look at Ohio State's recruiting class.
We probably agree on the Gophers
I do agree we are fragile. There are lots of pitfalls with our personnel. We need the combination of EE and MO but somehow we won w/o EE this week and were competitive in Hawaii w/o MO. I don't know how Pitino does it? To me our personnel is weak but if he could win this year with six new guys coming next year, I'm optimistic we are better. Mathieu seemed irreplaceable this year. Maybe next year we could absorb him being dinged? Dunno but the rest are interchangeable. We need a post defender in the pipeline and another point guard.
Austin has been huge down the stretch but was invisible for a long stretch. Andre has been MIA pretty much all season. That tells me Pitino will find a way just like you trust Izzo will. I respect Izzo very much but if he is in top four BIG next year without some late additions I'll be very impressed.
I do agree we are fragile. There are lots of pitfalls with our personnel. We need the combination of EE and MO but somehow we won w/o EE this week and were competitive in Hawaii w/o MO. I don't know how Pitino does it? To me our personnel is weak but if he could win this year with six new guys coming next year, I'm optimistic we are better. Mathieu seemed irreplaceable this year. Maybe next year we could absorb him being dinged? Dunno but the rest are interchangeable. We need a post defender in the pipeline and another point guard.
Austin has been huge down the stretch but was invisible for a long stretch. Andre has been MIA pretty much all season. That tells me Pitino will find a way just like you trust Izzo will. I respect Izzo very much but if he is in top four BIG next year without some late additions I'll be very impressed.
SelectionSunday
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Good point.
On paper, the B1G schedule appears favorable. The Gophers only play 5 games vs. the conference's Big Boys. ... 2 vs. the Badgers, and 1 each vs. Michigan (road), Michigan State (road), and Ohio State (home). Hurts the strength of schedule pop, but certainly makes finishing above .500 -- which should be our low-end goal every season -- very attainable. Need to sweep the likes of Penn State and Purdue, then kick some a*s vs. the more "winnable" 1-plays, Illinois, Northwestern, and Rutgers at home, along with Indiana and Maryland on the road.
howieramone
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This is good news! Just make it to the dance in year 2 and I think the rest will take care of itself.
Winasota Gopher
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Is that a POLLYANNA statement...
Howie.... hello??!?!
Don't think you can slip that kind of optimism past me pal.... Unless you're laying the sarcasm on thick I think I gotcha!
march madness
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At first glance i see Michigan st. as down, but now not sure...
They will be less talented but 2 of the 3 who had injures problems are graduating. IF Harris retuns they are close to as good as this year, if he leaves they take a small step down.
Trice at either guard spot, Valentine SG/SF, Dawson at both forward spots. Kaminski and his 3pt shooting in the post. Decent bench play with physical pf Schilling and solid guard Ellis. Physical play from Costello. Nairn either starts or contributes off the bench. Nairn starts to get Trice's much needed 3pt shooting? Bess may get some wing minutes too.
Who takes the big shots? Can Dawson turn himself into a go to guy?
They will be less talented but 2 of the 3 who had injures problems are graduating. IF Harris retuns they are close to as good as this year, if he leaves they take a small step down.
Trice at either guard spot, Valentine SG/SF, Dawson at both forward spots. Kaminski and his 3pt shooting in the post. Decent bench play with physical pf Schilling and solid guard Ellis. Physical play from Costello. Nairn either starts or contributes off the bench. Nairn starts to get Trice's much needed 3pt shooting? Bess may get some wing minutes too.
Who takes the big shots? Can Dawson turn himself into a go to guy?
SelectionSunday
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Can't see any scenario Harris comes back, but Dawson is smart enough to realize he's a tweener and a senior season would benefit him. Sparty won't be nearly as talented next season, but even without Harris can't see them dropping any lower than 4th. They have a solid nucleus (as you mentioned), but Costello, Kaminski, and to a lesser extent Ellis III are the guys they really need to step up. All three showed flashes this season.
Sparty will have plenty of guys that can shoot it (Trice, Valentine, Kaminski, perhaps Ellis III), but Costello, especially, needs to become a factor in the post. Gauna looks hopeless, and Schilling's raw and probably another season away from being anything more than an active big guy, so Costello's gotta' be the guy.
Trice definitely has proven he can make big shots.
I think at this point Wisconsin is the favorite for #1 in the preseason. #2 is where it gets interesting. A lot of moving and shaking of the rosters still to come.
I expect that Wisky, Illinois, OSU, MSU, Michigan, Nebraska, and Maryland will each have a pretty good shot at the NCAA tournament. Not saying they will all make it, and some (almost all) of them will need to avoid bad luck to be able to make it. Iowa could make the tourney if everything goes right but my guess is NIT. Then the group of Indiana, Minnesota, and Purdue, three teams that have some talent across the board but probably not quite enough talent and/or experience to make the tourney. PSU, Northwestern, and Rutgers clustered at the bottom.
Illinois I think is the team that has the most room for growth compared to this past season. They lose a couple role players off a decent team and add one highly regarded freshman as well as three pretty solid transfers. I like their chances of finishing near the top of the B1G next season.
I expect that Wisky, Illinois, OSU, MSU, Michigan, Nebraska, and Maryland will each have a pretty good shot at the NCAA tournament. Not saying they will all make it, and some (almost all) of them will need to avoid bad luck to be able to make it. Iowa could make the tourney if everything goes right but my guess is NIT. Then the group of Indiana, Minnesota, and Purdue, three teams that have some talent across the board but probably not quite enough talent and/or experience to make the tourney. PSU, Northwestern, and Rutgers clustered at the bottom.
Illinois I think is the team that has the most room for growth compared to this past season. They lose a couple role players off a decent team and add one highly regarded freshman as well as three pretty solid transfers. I like their chances of finishing near the top of the B1G next season.
Goldy Gopher
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Agree with you about Illinois being a team that could make a jump next year and should be a tournament team but I'm not so sure on Maryland as I think they'll need a little time to adjust to the Big Ten. Also would be surprised if the Gophers don't make the tournament, with 4 starters back and the way players got better during the season under Pitino I fully expect this team to take the next step and be an NCAA Tournament team next year. I think the Big Ten could be very deep next year with as many as 9 teams maybe making the NCAA Tournament.
Actually, looking at Maryland a little closer I think they are in a similar situation to Illinois, two teams that had disappointing seasons this year with a lot of players coming back and some talented players coming in. Maryland had no seniors this year, and they have a couple pretty highly regarded freshmen coming in. Maryland I think could surprise next season in the B1G.
You may be right, Minnesota could make it, but you will need someone to step into Austin's place and play pretty well, and I believe that is the key to the Gophers making the tournament.
MSU might be the most intriguing team, oddly seeming even more intriguing the more players they lose. I want to see what Izzo can do without a super talented roster. They have some nice pieces but nobody that is good enough to be a go-to guy offensively if they lose Harris. They have all the bases covered and some decent depth. My low end expectation is a #11 seed. I doubt they could get anything better than a #6 seed, though.
Goldy Gopher
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You're right the two biggest keys for the Gophers making the tournament are having someone step into Austin's spot and give us some kind of contribution and Andre bouncing back from his injury and having a Senior season more like his Sophomore year rather than this season.
Mulligan
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Not unusual, but I'm slurping the Kool-aid pretty deeply. If you look at the returnees, everyone of those guys has the potential to have a much better season than this year with maybe the exception of DeAndre. I think Pitino just seems like the type to maximize that potential which by itself makes the Gophers better. Hopefully, there is also somebody who will take a really big jump and really surprise us. Not to say it'll be exactly the same, but look at the difference between Kaminsky form last year to now. Guys all of a sudden "get it" and maybe we have somebody like that. Not going to leapfrog past the elite, but hoping for 6th or 7th as we get on top of that middle bunch.
howieramone
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Bingo!
underground629
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I'll be shocked if we don't make the tournament next year... unless we have a significant injury to a key player.
bemidjigopher
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I think Maryland could make it next year, but where they will struggle is the grind of playing on the road in this conference. Every road game is a battle in this league and I don't think that was always the case in the ACC.
XMan
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Have to hope that squirrel can pick up some of the scoring we will miss at the three with Austin leaving. I don't see Joey being quick enough or a good enough ball handler to play the three. Maybe piper backing up squirrel?
In what draft is Dekker a lottery pick? The Euro draft? He is not anywhere close to an NBA lottery pick right now. He would likely not be a first round pick right now.
Eventually, he will earn a nice living playing hoops, but he has a ways to go to be an NBA lottery pick.
Winasota Gopher
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I think that's even a reach at this point.
