2012 NCAA Baseball Field of 64 Projection

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SelectionSunday

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Let's see how I do on the baseball side of things. Didn't put as much effort into this as I do for basketball's Selection Sunday, so don't expect the same results. The Selection Show airs at 11 a.m. Memorial Day on ESPNU.

The B1G has a decent chance of getting an at-large bid, as Michigan State (37-21) sits squarely on the bubble. Though MSU only has 3 RPI top-50 wins (Baylor, Purdue and Saint John's), I'm banking Sparty will squeeze out one of the final at-large bids largely because of its willingness to play away from home. 36 of Sparty's 58 games were on the road or at a neutral site, the highest total of any bubble team. And Sparty performed well in those 36 games, going 22-14.

I have listed RPI's for the last 4 in, first 4 out, and other bubble teams that were under consideration.

FIELD OF 64
America East (1): Stony Brook

ACC (8): Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia, Wake Forest

Atlantic Sun (1): Belmont

Atlantic 10 (1): Dayton

Big East (2): Louisville, Saint John's

Big South (1): Coastal Carolina

B1G (2): Michigan State, Purdue

Big 12 (4): Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas A&M

Big West (1): Cal State-Fullerton

Colonial (1): UNC-Wilmington

Conference USA (4): East Carolina, Rice, UAB, UCF

Horizon (1): Valpo

Independents (1): Dallas Baptist

Ivy (1): Cornell

MAAC (1): Manhattan

MAC (1): Kent State

MEAC (1): Bethune-Cookman

Missouri Valley (3): Creighton, Indiana State, Missouri State

Mountain West (2): New Mexico, TCU

Northeast (1): Sacred Heart

Ohio Valley (1): Austin Peay

Pac 12 (5): Arizona, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA

Patriot (1): Army

SEC (8): Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Southern (3): Appalachian State, College of Charleston, Samford

Southland (1): Texas-Arlington

SWAC (1): Prairie View A&M

Summit (1): Oral Roberts

Sun Belt (1): Louisiana-Monroe

West Coast (2): Pepperdine, San Diego

WAC (2): Fresno State, New Mexico State

_____________________
Last 4 In: Louisville (42), College of Charleston (43), Michigan State (45), Indiana State (49)

First 4 Out: Virginia Tech (36), Gonzaga (46), Sam Houston State (50), Texas (51)

Others Considered: Maryland (28), Washington (52), Auburn (56), Georgia (57), Liberty (63), Tulane (64), USF (65), Long Beach State (67), Cal Poly (68), Utah Valley State (69)
 

After listening to one of the heads of the selection comittee talk during the SEC championship game about what they were looking for when selecting the regional hosts and teams to the tournament he talked a lot about putting more emphasis on playing on the road and trying to get more teams from the ACC,SEC, and conferences like that to go play on the road more. Based on what he said I felt Michigan St. should have a strong chance to get an at large bid.
 

SelectionSunday said:
Let's see how I do on the baseball side of things. Didn't put as much effort into this as I do for basketball's Selection Sunday, so don't expect the same results. The Selection Show airs at 11 a.m. Memorial Day on ESPNU.

The B1G has a decent chance of getting an at-large bid, as Michigan State (37-21) sits squarely on the bubble. Though MSU only has 3 RPI top-50 wins (Baylor, Purdue and Saint John's), I'm banking Sparty will squeeze out one of the final at-large bids largely because of its willingness to play away from home. 36 of Sparty's 58 games were on the road or at a neutral site, the highest total of any bubble team. And Sparty performed well in those 36 games, going 22-14.

I have listed RPI's for the last 4 in, first 4 out, and other bubble teams that were under consideration.

FIELD OF 64
America East (1): Stony Brook

ACC (8): Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia, Wake Forest

Atlantic Sun (1): Belmont

Atlantic 10 (1): Dayton

Big East (2): Louisville, Saint John's

Big South (1): Coastal Carolina

B1G (2): Michigan State, Purdue

Big 12 (4): Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas A&M

Big West (1): Cal State-Fullerton

Colonial (1): UNC-Wilmington

Conference USA (4): East Carolina, Rice, UAB, UCF

Horizon (1): Valpo

Independents (1): Dallas Baptist

Ivy (1): Cornell

MAAC (1): Manhattan

MAC (1): Kent State

MEAC (1): Bethune-Cookman

Missouri Valley (3): Creighton, Indiana State, Missouri State

Mountain West (2): New Mexico, TCU

Northeast (1): Sacred Heart

Ohio Valley (1): Austin Peay

Pac 12 (6): Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA

Patriot (1): Army

SEC (8): Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Southern (2): Appalachian State, Samford

Southland (1): Texas-Arlington

SWAC (1): Prairie View A&M

Summit (1): Oral Roberts

Sun Belt (1): Louisiana-Monroe

West Coast (2): Pepperdine, San Diego

WAC (2): Fresno State, New Mexico State

_____________________
Last 4 In: Appalachian State (40), Louisville (42), Michigan State (45), Indiana State (49)

First 4 Out: Virginia Tech (36), College of Charleston (43), Gonzaga (46), Texas (51)

Others Considered: Maryland (28), Sam Houston State (50), Washington (52), Auburn (56), Georgia (57), Liberty (63), Tulane (64), USF (65), Long Beach State (67), Cal Poly (68), Utah Valley State (69)
Click to expand...

I believe Arizona St. is ineligible for the tournament this year based on the NCAA sanctions placed on them for violations.
 

Thanks for the tip. That would be good. Increases MSU's chances a little bit. I'll put College of Charleston in ASU's place. (edited above)

Nice to see Purdue gets to host in Gary, Ind.
 

Always good to see new teams hosting, especially northern teams. Sounds like a lot of people suprised and a little upset with Miami hosting instead of Kentucky.
 


I hope Purdue can at least make the super regional. Kentucky is a good team and like Goldy said they could have hosted a regional.
 


I missed one (with help from Goldy Gopher's tip on ASU's ineligibility). Sam Houston State got in instead of Wake Forest.
 

I think Michigan State got a pretty decent draw, especially if they can avoid facing Stanford ace Mark Appel (will the Cardinal use him in their opener vs. Fresno State?). Generally speaking, if I'm a Big Ten team I'd rather take my chances against the elite western programs than the elite programs from the SEC and ACC. Both the Gophers and Illinois have represented the B1G well in regional appearances at Fullerton the past two seasons, both coming within one win of the Super Regionals (Gophers lost to Fullerton State, Illini fell to Stanford).

MSU has starting pitching depth and appears to match up pretty well with 1st-round opponent Pepperdine. They have two common opponents, Texas A&M and Louisville. Both were swept by Texas A&M, with Sparty losing 7-3, 4-0 and 9-8, while Pepperdine lost 4-0, 9-2 and 12-5.

Sparty lost 7-6 in its its only matchup with Louisville, while the Waves won 1 of 3 vs. Louisville, winning 3-2 and losing 3-1 and 7-3.
 



I wouldn't be suprised to see Stanford throw Appel against Fresno or try to save him for the 2nd game, but one thing to consider for them is they beat Fresno 2 out of 3 the only series they played this year, but their only loss was the game that Appel started.
 

Switching gears to Purdue, they have a real shot to get to the Super Regionals. They're the best B1G team I've seen come down the pike in quite awhile. They look physically mature, a lot of upperclassmen, tough outs up and down the lineup, and pretty solid pitching in the 1-2 spots, though I don't think Haase is the kind of #1 starter who's going to shut down a truly potent offense.
 

Goldy Gopher said:
I wouldn't be suprised to see Stanford throw Appel against Fresno or try to save him for the 2nd game, but one thing to consider for them is they beat Fresno 2 out of 3 the only series they played this year, but their only loss was the game that Appel started.
Click to expand...

From what I read in the Stanford Daily, Appel gets the start against Fresno State "As far as the first game I think it wouldn’t be too wise for us to not pitch Mark,” he noted. “We’re not going to overlook Fresno State.” http://www.stanforddaily.com/2012/0...ks-off-regional-at-home-against-fresno-state/
 

Purdue looks to be in good shap being in the winners bracket and having 2 teams having played a 21 inning game last night in their bracket. Sparty has a tough road ahead after losing their 1st game and having to come back through the losers bracket.
 



Goldy Gopher said:
Purdue looks to be in good shap being in the winners bracket and having 2 teams having played a 21 inning game last night in their bracket. Sparty has a tough road ahead after losing their 1st game and having to come back through the losers bracket.
Click to expand...

Michigan State laid an egg. Certainly doesn't help the B1G's baseball cause. Maybe Indiana (2nd in both the regular season and B1G tourney) would have performed better regardless of what their season ending RPI was. Maybe not. Definitely couldn't have done any worse.

Unfortunately, Purdue has also looked less than impressive in the Gary, IN Regional. Haase pitched well in game #1 but Valpo pretty much handed the game to them with all of those throwing errors. In game #2 the Boilermakers looked very average, almost flat for some reason, against a good Kent St. team. If either team was going to show up flat for that game I would have expected it to be Kent St. after their epic game versus Kentucky.

Purdue has their work cut out for them to pull the Regional out now. If they go 1-2 it could be a while until the B1G gets multiple bids without the regular season champion losing to someone else in the B1G tourney final. It'll be a lot of ammo for the naysayers next year no matter how well a B1G team does if the Boilermakers get bounced in Gary, IN. Hope they rally and come out of it.
 

Definitely not a good showing for the Big 10. Sparty for the most part got quality pitching from its starters in the postseason (B1G tourney and NCAA), but the bats went silent, save for a couple of their freshmen. Still, they have pretty much their entire team back next season, something to build on after not having been to the NCAAs since 1979. Jake Boss Jr. has done quick work making MSU a quality program, a co-B1G regular-season title + a NCAA bid in just 4 seasons.

Am more disappointed in Purdue. Everything was on a platter for them after beating Valpo combined with the Kent State-Kentucky 21-inning marathon. Did nothing to capitalize on it.

Crowds in Gary looked brutal. Sounded like there were more UK fans than Purdue fans. Prety sad.
 

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