2011-12 Stats Predictions

[GophersOnTheRise]

Bored and want to pass the time before HP League starts. How does everyone think the players will do this year?

2010-2011 ppg: 68.9 rpg: 38.1
2011-2012 ppg: 71 rpg: 38

Player: Min | Pts & Reb
Trevor Mbakwe: 32 | 15 & 11
Ralph Sampson: 28 | 10 & 6
Rodney Williams: 25 | 10 & 5
Julian Welch: 25 | 7 & 2
Austin Hollins: 20 | 7 & 2
Andre Hollins: 20 | 6 & 2
Mo Walker: 12 | 4 & 3
Chip Armelin: 11 | 4 & 1
Joe Coleman: 10 | 3 & 2
Maverick Ahanmisi: 10 | 2 & 1
Elliot Eliason: 6 | 2 & 2
Andre Ingram: 2 | 1 & 1

I could definitely see a couple of players scoring more points than I predicted, but in order to keep it to a realistic team total (which I arbitrarily put at 71) I had to lower my expectations for a couple of players. I didn't include Oto because I don't have the slightest clue as to how good he is. All I know is he is supposedly a good shooter, but I'll hold off on any sort of prediction for him until I see him at the Pulley league. Feel free to include him in your predictions if you want.

 

[Go Gophs eh?]

Mbakwe 14 ppg,11.2 boards
Sampson 11ppg, 5.7 boards
Williams 9ppg, 6.3 boards
Coleman 5ppg, 3.0 boards
An. Hollins 9ppg, 2 boards, 3 assists
Au. Hollins 7 ppg, 3 boards, 2 assists
Welch 6 ppg, 3 assists
Walker 7 ppg, 7 boards

Just guesses. I think except for mbakwe, we'll have a very balanced attack

 

[GophersOnTheRise]

Mbakwe 14 ppg,11.2 boards
Sampson 11ppg, 5.7 boards
Williams 9ppg, 6.3 boards
Coleman 5ppg, 3.0 boards
An. Hollins 9ppg, 2 boards, 3 assists
Au. Hollins 7 ppg, 3 boards, 2 assists
Welch 6 ppg, 3 assists
Walker 7 ppg, 7 boards

Just guesses. I think except for mbakwe, we'll have a very balanced attack

Those all look reasonable. The amount of points Andre scores will completely depend on what mentality he plays with. In AAU he seemed to accept his role behind Adonis Thomas and didn't feel the need to force the action. Hit a lot of threes, scored in transition, and attacked the rim occasionally, but did everything efficiently and picked his moments. In his senior season of high school he didn't have a guy like Adonis Thomas or Joe Jackson so he knew he had to take things in his own hands and he started to show people how good of a scorer he could be. It'll be interesting to see if he comes in right away with that same mentality from his senior year or if he reverts back to how he played with Memphis Magic and picks his moments(not saying that would be a bad thing, as he played well with both mentalities). I think he could very well average close to 10 points if he's aggressive right away.

 

[Duthasmon Smith]

Trevor Mbakwe: 18 & 13
Ralph Sampson: 13 & 6
Rodney Williams: 7 & 5
Julian Welch: 5 & 2
Austin Hollins: 8 & 2
Andre Hollins: 6 & 2
Mo Walker: 4 & 3
Chip Armelin: 4 & 1
Joe Coleman: 1 & 2
Maverick Ahanmisi: 1 & 1
Elliot Eliason: 2 & 2
Andre Ingram: 1 & 1

I don't see the freshmen having a huge impact as that's really not Tubby's style. Trevor and Ralph will have big years if we have success. To me Rodney is the "X" factor. I'd love to see better than 7 & 5 out of Rodney, in fact 7/5 would be a disappointment. Hope I'm wrong on that one.

Mo's a big wildcard as well with the rehab.

 

[Monty519]

Trevor Mbakwe: 18 & 13
Ralph Sampson: 13 & 6
Rodney Williams: 7 & 5
Julian Welch: 5 & 2
Austin Hollins: 8 & 2
Andre Hollins: 6 & 2
Mo Walker: 4 & 3
Chip Armelin: 4 & 1
Joe Coleman: 1 & 2
Maverick Ahanmisi: 1 & 1
Elliot Eliason: 2 & 2
Andre Ingram: 1 & 1

I don't see the freshmen having a huge impact as that's really not Tubby's style. Trevor and Ralph will have big years if we have success. To me Rodney is the "X" factor. I'd love to see better than 7 & 5 out of Rodney, in fact 7/5 would be a disappointment. Hope I'm wrong on that one.

Mo's a big wildcard as well with the rehab.

Considering Rodney did 7/3.5 while being hurt some games as well last year, I would definitely consider 7/5 a disappointment. He should get more scoring opportunities on the squad next year and even with minimal improvement, I'd hope to see double figures from him quite regularly honestly.

 

[march madness]

I'm not sure I see Sampson getting 13 a game. This team absolutely needs to run and press. There is so much even depth at guard and lots of athleticism. It will be hard to keep them all happy with the playing time. Of the guards, whoever can shoot will probably see the floor.

 

[figi]

I'm giving Eliason a lot more credit than I see above. I think he will get Iverson's minutes and be a more productive player from start to finish. In fact, if Walker doesn't stay healthy and Sampson doesn't pick up the pace next season, Elliot will be getting some of their minutes too. Right now he's part of the future and the sooner he's in the middle of things the better.

 

[GophersOnTheRise]

I'm giving Eliason a lot more credit than I see above. I think he will get Iverson's minutes and be a more productive player from start to finish. In fact, if Walker doesn't stay healthy and Sampson doesn't pick up the pace next season, Elliot will be getting some of their minutes too. Right now he's part of the future and the sooner he's in the middle of things the better.

Yeah I wanted to give him more credit in my predictions, but there are only 80 minutes per game for power forwards and centers to share. If Mbakwe takes 32 and Sampson takes 28 like in my prediction then there is 20 minutes left to be spread around between Walker, Eliason, and Ingram. Even if Ingram only takes one or two minutes Walker and Eliason probably won't be getting significant minutes unless one gets hurt or in foul trouble.

 

[GoFerit]

I do not believe that average points scored/allowed always offer an insight into how well a team performs since they don’t account for different dynamics in each game. Nevertheless, they have some correlation with the overall performance of a team though uncertain about the degree of it. In that sense, any analysis based on average points scored/allowed, though not precise, can be something to entertain with as they can serve as a crude indicator of overall performance.

For the regular conference games last season, we scored 63.72 ppg and allowed 65.72 ppg. The average points scored and allowed for the first six conference games before Nolen went down (3-3) are 65.33 and 65.83. For the last 12 games after Nolen went down (3-9), they are 62.97 and 65.67 respectively. In our case, the average points scored/allowed seem to reflect the results.

If our defense is not to change next season allowing 65.72 ppg, it may be interesting to see how we can get 65~66 ppg to stay competitive.

 

[GoFerit]

Last season, we had three freshmen, Austin, Chip and Mav, accounting for about 40 mpg combined (though Mav only played 17 of them instead of 18, it should not make any difference). Next season, we may have a similar situation with Coleman, Hollins and Welch possibly playing as much as 40 mpg combined (I am not too sure about Ingram at this point). So, I think it is reasonable to assume that our defense would be no worse next season as far as learning curve for freshmen is concerned. Therefore, I think we can be as good or bad defensively next season that we were last season.

How about our scoring?

Last season, TM scored 14.06 ppg (33.22 mpg) for the conference games, Ralph 9.28 ppg (31.28 mpg), and Colt 4.61 ppg (19.11 mpg). TM and Ralph together should account for 60 mpg. Colt’s minutes will be given to Mo, EE and Ingram. I think it is safe to assume they can give us 5 ppg and 20 mpg combined. In other words, a very conservative estimate for next season would be 28 ppg from the frontcourt.

Rodney gave us 7.17 ppg and 28.06 mpg. He will be the starter at the 3 playing as much as he did last season. Can his back-ups provide 3 ppg for 12 mpg? Joe and possibly Oto can do it, I think. So, we can conservatively expect 10 ppg from the 3.

10 ppg for 40 mpg were what Austin, Chip and Mav together produced last season and can be a conservative estimate for next season.

If our defense next season is to be as it was last season allowing 65.72 ppg, we will need additional 17~18 ppg to stay competitive (a conservative total of 48 ppg from the players sans the 4 recruits). Not an easy task in reality.

I think our team sans the freshmen can improve scoring production by 10% or about 5 ppg. If so, Andre Hollins and Welch must be able to give us about 35 mpg and 13 ppg combined. That is one scenario.

Another is a player having a break-out season.