Regarding Tomes potentially being a go to “shooter” for the Gophers….
On East Ridge’s all-time records page it shows Tomes’ 2024-2025 three point shooting percentage to be at least 31% or lower. The page shows that Cedric Tomes took the most threes last year (253) but didn’t make the most threes on his team last season (80). It doesn’t say how many threes Tomes made since he doesn’t have the makes record. But even if Tomes made 79 out of 253, that’s 31%. It could possibly be much lower.
Someone else on Tomes’ team (James Martin) actually made more threes on fewer attempts last year. It’s probably fair to question how Tomes, a supposed best shooter in the state since he was a sophomore, attempted the most threes but did not make the most threes on his own high school team as a junior. And why did the Gophers sign Tomes in the Spring of 2025 to be a three point shooting specialist after he did this?
View attachment 42560
East Ridge Records Page
Notably, multiple interviews and articles that were conducted after last season concluded reported Tomes as shooting above 40% from three last year, and it is unclear how those figures were reported or calculated or verified. Who knows what number (40%+ or 31% or lower) the Gophers went off of. I hope the Gophers had the correct numbers.
Yahoo Article
24/7 Interview
Dr. Dish Interview
Shooting 31% or below would likely put Tomes at the bottom end of recruitable guards for the Gophers. The difference between a 31% or lower three point specialist and a 40%+ three point specialist is massive. That swing in shooting efficiency would force entirely different decisions in playing time, development, spacing and usage decisions.
Almost all guards the Gophers recruit out of high school will realistically fall somewhere between about 30% and 45% from three. That entire performance band is only 15% wide. A jump from 30% to 40%+ spans 10 percentage points, which covers roughly 67% of that whole recruiting range.
The difference between 30 makes and 40 makes is not just 10 shots. A 40% three point shooter takes 100 shots and makes 40 threes with 60 misses. A 30% three point shooter needs 134 total attempts to reach 40 makes, which means 94 misses. To get to the same 40 made threes, the 30% shooter has to take 34 more shots with 57% more misses (60 misses vs 94 misses). That is not a small gap. It is a massive efficiency difference.
325 of the 365 teams in division 1 men’s basketball are currently shooting higher than 31% from three as a team. Yale, the top three point shooting team in the NCAA, shoots 41.9%.
It seems difficult to project how a 5’10ish point guard shooting 31% or potentially much lower (according to his high schools team’s official stats) from three at the Minnesota high school level translates to the much more difficult B1G level. But if the Gopher’s are banking on Tomes being any kind of three point shooter specialist, I think the program will be in trouble.
It’s strange and kind of concerning seeing Gopher’s recruits have different stats in interviews/articles vs on high school teams official stats. I hope the Gopher’s are getting players correct stats. There seems to be a real need for MSHSL, the Star Tribune, or MN Basketball Hub to require teams to post full stat lines (not just points) as some kind of check and balance. Other high school sports already report detailed official stats, so it is hard to justify why basketball does not. I think officially reported advanced stats would help with high school basketball strategy, analysis, recognition, awards, and college recruiting.
