Sagarin Predictions: Week 14

[Gopher07]

Last time in the regular season! We upset Nebraska last weekend for our first win as double-digit Sagarin underdogs since early last season against Northwestern. Can we do it again, for the Axe, for the West, for the love of all that is good in this world?

Week 13 can be found here.

As always, these are for entertainment purposes only.

I take the GOLDEN_MEAN score, found here, and add the home-field advantage to the home team to come up with predicted spreads/favorites. I've also noted the PREDICTOR spreads as well, in blue.

@ Wisconsin +15.5 (+14.5)

Predicted Record 8-4 (5-3)

Likely losses (>6 point difference in favor of opponent): @ Wisconsin

Looking at the rankings now, how would the rest of our games be positioned from a line standpoint if played this week?

vs EIU -20.5 (-21)
vs MTSU -17 (-20)
@ TCU +18.5 (+17)
vs SJSU -20.5 (-22)
@ Michigan -2.5 (-3.5)
vs Northwestern -6.5 (-7)
vs Purdue -13.5 (-15.5)
@ Illinois -9.5 (-9)
vs Iowa -2 (-4)
vs Ohio State +9.5 (+8)
@ Nebraska +10.5 (+8)

 

[bleedsmaroonandgold]

Still favored by 15? They are one game ahead of us both overall and in conference. TCU is better than LSU, Illinois is roughly a wash with Northwestern, and we lost to an OSU team that is much better than anyone Wisconsin has beaten. I certainly think they should be favored, but that still feels like a wide spread.

 

[Gopher07]

Still favored by 15? They are one game ahead of us both overall and in conference. TCU is better than LSU, Illinois is roughly a wash with Northwestern, and we lost to an OSU team that is much better than anyone Wisconsin has beaten. I certainly think they should be favored, but that still feels like a wide spread.

It's about margins. In B1G games, they score 37 ppg and give up 17 ppg, while we score 31 and give up 24. The strength of schedule doesn't have a whole lot to do with it, the combined conference record of their B1G opponents, outside of games against the Badgers, is 19-23. The combined conference record of our B1G opponents, outside of playing us, is 22-20.

Plus, it's at Camp Randall, which is a 6-point swing in their favor. If the game were at TCF, the formula would say Wisconsin +9/+9.5.