2 Star Recruits - A look back at how they turned out

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MNVCGUY

MNVCGUY

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Before I begin, like most on here I think the star rankings are overblown and way to much emphasis is put on how many stars fall next to a kids name. That being said they do hold some value and I was curious to take a look back and see just how many of these kids actually pan out. Based on what we are seeing to this point I am guessing that Kill's classes may feature more 2 star guys similar to what we used to get with Mason.

Notes: Rankings are from Rivals only. They keep a listing back to 2002. I did not factor 2010 and 2011 guys into final totals because it is too early to make a declaration on most of those guys. I grouped guys by star, good, or bust. Star is self explanitory, good would be a guy that started or saw significant meaningful playing time, bust would be someone that was never really heard from again.

2002 - Total recruits 2* or less = 20
Star = 2 - Eslinger, Spaeth
Good = 7 - Ainslie, Banks, Clark, Cupito, Hosack, Montgomery, Reese
Bust = 11

2003 - Total recruits 2* or less = 11
Star = 1 - Lloyd
Good = 4 - Harris, Jakel, Payne, Steib
Bust = 6

2004 - Total recruits 2* or less = 18
Star = 1 - VanDeSteeg
Good = 5 - Giannini, Hightower, Kucek, Mortensen, Russell
Bust = 12

2005 - Total recruits 2* or less = 9
Star = 1 - Decker
Good = 1 - Stommes
Bust = 7

2006 - Total recruits 2* or less = 13
Star = 0
Good = 4 - Alford, Buckner, Campbell, Ellestad
Bust = 9

2007 - Total recruits 2* or less = 12
Star = 0
Good = 5 - Bennett, McGarry, Small, Theret, Wynn
Bust = 7

2008 - Total recruits 2* or less = 5
Star = 0
Good = 3 - Grant, J. Johnson, McKnight
Bust = 2

2009 - Total recruits 2* or less = 2
Star = 0
Good = 1 - Oreseske (boarderline)
Bust = 1

2010 - Total recruits 2* or less = 6
To early to tell but so far Ben Perry is the only one that has shown anything

2011 - Total recurits 2* or less = 6
To early to tell but so far Jones is the only one that has shown anything on the field

Grand Totals for anyone who has stuck with this: (can't believe they all worked out to multiples of 5)

Total Recruits = 90
Total Stars = 5 - 6%
Total Good = 30 - 33%
Total Bust = 55 - 61%

Summary - Odds are against a 2* guy becoming a star player but there is a little over a 1 in 3 chance that they will become a very useful player. At least according to this very unscientific look at 8 years worth of Gophers recruiting. If I get bored tomorrow maybe I will do the 3* guys...:cool02:

2012 - Current verbals 2* or less = 10
 

I understand what you are saying about kill's classes featuring 2-stars, but this class could have less than we think. How many of those guys got conditional offers? How many of them will be replaced by guys that are coming in to visit now?
 

You may be right but I would anticipate Kill signing a higher volume of 2 star guys based on them being used to going after those guys and also the fact that they are recruiting specific players for their systems so they are unlikely to worry too much about where a guy is ranked nationally. I got the impression that Brewster was very concerned with maintaining his reputation as a top recruiter so he needed the flashy guys more then a guy like Kill who could probably care less where his class is ranked as long as the players he brings in can get the job done.

I really took the look back to satisfy my own curiosity. The margin for error is probably slimmer on the lower ranked guys but if your staff can evaluate talent there are plenty of gems to be found. Only time will tell where Kill's staff will fall but I don't anticipate seeing a lot of 4 star guys coming through the door during Kill's time here. Whether that is a good thing or a bad thing remains to be seen.
 

Not to be nitpicky because this is a really good post, however, I just have a couple little suggestions.

If you're going to count Buckner, Mortenson and Johnson as "good". You'd have to include Rabe (played a lot), Wells and C. Thompson as "good" as well. Rabe is self explanatory but Wells and Thompson saw significant time on special teams (like Johnson and Buckner) and with the defensive unit.
 

Bob_Loblaw said:
Not to be nitpicky because this is a really good post, however, I just have a couple little suggestions.

If you're going to count Buckner, Mortenson and Johnson as "good". You'd have to include Rabe (played a lot), Wells and C. Thompson as "good" as well. Rabe is self explanatory but Wells and Thompson saw significant time on special teams (like Johnson and Buckner) and with the defensive unit.
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Those are all 2011 guys and I didn't factor those guys into the totals. I just mentioned them at the end because it is too early to say how they will turn out.

The three you mentioned from the past were all boarderline guys for the good category along with others like Jakel and Steib for example. Really could have used more categories because clearly a guy like McKnight falls at a higher level then Johnson but this was already pushing my maximum level of dedication...:)
 


You are being very liberal with the word "good."
 

this thread is just down right dumb... if you want to see how this staff does with 2 star recruits just go back and look at siu and niu recruiting classes and judge for your self by going back and watching every second of game film...... or better yet.... just look at how his teams faired against big 10 tallent.... i TOTALLY trust Kill will bring in the right players to fit his system, and he will win with them...

imo it is totally unfair to go back and look at mn recruits from the mase and even the Brew era and expect similar results.... go back and look at Kills sucsess at the stops he has been at and compare them in 3 years to what he has done with them here
 

3399 said:
Hate hate hate hate hate
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hatereagle.jpg
 

stuck_in_scony_go4_fan said:
this thread is just down right dumb... if you want to see how this staff does with 2 star recruits just go back and look at siu and niu recruiting classes and judge for your self by going back and watching every second of game film...... or better yet.... just look at how his teams faired against big 10 tallent.... i TOTALLY trust Kill will bring in the right players to fit his system, and he will win with them...

imo it is totally unfair to go back and look at mn recruits from the mase and even the Brew era and expect similar results.... go back and look at Kills sucsess at the stops he has been at and compare them in 3 years to what he has done with them here
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My post has nothing to do with Kill other then to point out that he will probably recruit more 2 star athletes then we have seen the past few years. I have no idea how the guys he brings in are going to pan out I was just taking a look back at the past to see how 2 star recruits have fared over the years. In no way was this meant as an attack at Kill or the players he is bringing in.
 



I appreciate the posts though I wonder what your definition of "good" is? I would argue that Jakel, Steib, Giannini, Stommes, Buckner, Grant, and J. Johnson didn't (or have not yet) earned that classification. Some of those players might be considered useful depth, but none was an effective starter at any point in their career.

The overall point is that there are far, far more busts among lowly rated recruits than their are stars. I hope the mouth breathers who shout Eslinger! Decker! etc to "prove" that rankings don't matter will get it someday, but I am not holding my breath.
 

Interesting Question

I appreciate your work and analysis of 2 star recruits. Rivals data will show that a significantly smaller percentage of 2 star recruits will be drafted by the NFL than 3 star recruits. Having said that, I suspect that Kill's results with 2 star recruits is better than most coaches for several reasons. First and forth most is that he is looking for athletic and fast players that have the potential to "fill out" in a couple of years and meet a specific need. It is my belief it is one of his and his staff’s core competencies to identify this type of recruit. Therefore a more interesting and indicative study would be look at the 2 star recruits at SIU and NIU. They have a lot of them and have done very well.
 

Killjoy said:
I appreciate your work and analysis of 2 star recruits. Rivals data will show that a significantly smaller percentage of 2 star recruits will be drafted by the NFL than 3 star recruits. Having said that, I suspect that Kill's results with 2 star recruits is better than most coaches for several reasons. First and forth most is that he is looking for athletic and fast players that have the potential to "fill out" in a couple of years and meet a specific need. It is my belief it is one of his and his staff’s core competencies to identify this type of recruit. Therefore a more interesting and indicative study would be look at the 2 star recruits at SIU and NIU. They have a lot of them and have done very well.
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With all due respect, they've done really well in D2 and the MAC. Put those teams in the Big Ten and they will get slaughtered.

Coach Kill was a tremendous FCS coach, but I think it goes without saying that if we're going to even be competitive in the Big Ten, he's going to have to recruit better players than he did at any other level.
 

I hear a lot of comments on my definition of good and I agree that I should have broken it out a little more so I went back and separated out the guys I would consider to have outplayed their 2 star rankings vs. guys that saw action and provided quality depth. New totals are as follows:

90 Total
Stars = 5 (6%) - Decker, Eslinger, Spaeth, VanDeSteeg, Lloyd (The last two are on the fringe but I think star worthy)

High Value = 20 (22%) - Ainslie, Banks, Cupito, Hosack, Montgomery, Harris, Payne, Hightower, Kucek, Russell, Alford, Theret, Wynn, McKnight, Grant, Oreseske (again the last two are on the fringe of this category)

Depth = 10 (11%) - Clark, Reese, Jakel, Steib, Giannini, Mortensen, Stommes, Buckner, McGarry, Johnson

Bust = 55 (61%)

I agree it would be interesting to see how Kill's 2* recruits have fared but I don't know enough about those players to do that analysis. The other thing we can't know is how those players would have handled the step up in competition. A 2* player that succeeds at the mid-major level might have a totally different impact at the B1G level. And the bottom line is this really isn't about Kill, if anything I have just provided a little proof that the star rankings do matter at least a little bit as a way of evaluating guys. Crap I might have to do the 3* analysis now...
 



I agree with the principle that talent is talent, but I will also say that some of these two-star guys get a greater opportunity to play and develop on supposedly less-talented teams such as Northern Illinois, or Ohio University (this year), two really good teams - not upper-level SEC teams in any way, but it's my opinion that both would the best of the worst in the Big Ten this year (at the very least).

And, as much as a lot of us would like to think otherwise, our squad is not real talented and not real deep right now (particularly at the skill positions). However, we are young, and if we've recruited the right kinds of kids (hard working, smart) who are willing/able to stick around, then even if they may not have all of the perfect qualities (height, speed, strength, etc, etc.), but have some of them, then it becomes a matter of coaches putting them in roles that maximize the qualities they do have, which I think this staff has proven to be able to do historically.

Then, when we get to the point where the guys playing are juniors and seniors, with depth behind them, that's when you can really start winning some games with seemingly less-talented (or less heralded) players.
 

TCF=UnitedWeStand said:
I agree with the principle that talent is talent, but I will also say that some of these two-star guys get a greater opportunity to play and develop on supposedly less-talented teams such as Northern Illinois, or Ohio University (this year), two really good teams - not upper-level SEC teams in any way, but it's my opinion that both would the best of the worst in the Big Ten this year (at the very least).
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Ohio lost to Rutgers this year and Northern Illinois lost to Kansas. If we're recruiting MAC-level players, we're not going anywhere. They aren't supposedly less talented, they are less talented.
 

stuck_in_scony_go4_fan said:
this thread is just down right dumb... if you want to see how this staff does with 2 star recruits just go back and look at siu and niu recruiting classes and judge for your self by going back and watching every second of game film...... or better yet.... just look at how his teams faired against big 10 tallent.... i TOTALLY trust Kill will bring in the right players to fit his system, and he will win with them...

imo it is totally unfair to go back and look at mn recruits from the mase and even the Brew era and expect similar results.... go back and look at Kills sucsess at the stops he has been at and compare them in 3 years to what he has done with them here
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DITTO
 

I think we can all agree ......

Gopherprof said:
With all due respect, they've done really well in D2 and the MAC. Put those teams in the Big Ten and they will get slaughtered.

Coach Kill was a tremendous FCS coach, but I think it goes without saying that if we're going to even be competitive in the Big Ten, he's going to have to recruit better players than he did at any other level.
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....that "he's going to have to recruit better players than he did at any other level." Having said that, we need to recognize that Northern Illinois, who had a lot of 2-star players in 2010, was ranked 30th in the final AP poll and 26th in the final USA Today poll. Not bad for a bunch of 2-star players

But the real point I was trying to make is that Jerry and his staff knows how to find, recruit, and coach under the radar players as good as anybody. The reality is that this is an absolute necessity until the program is turned around.
 

Gopherprof said:
Ohio lost to Rutgers this year and Northern Illinois lost to Kansas. If we're recruiting MAC-level players, we're not going anywhere. They aren't supposedly less talented, they are less talented.
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Fair, but NIU pounded us the year before at TCF, and nearly beat Wisconsin at Wisconsin the same year (I believe it was 2010).

Is it fair to say, lets see what happens?
 

MNVCGUY said:
You may be right but I would anticipate Kill signing a higher volume of 2 star guys based on them being used to going after those guys and also the fact that they are recruiting specific players for their systems so they are unlikely to worry too much about where a guy is ranked nationally. I got the impression that Brewster was very concerned with maintaining his reputation as a top recruiter so he needed the flashy guys more then a guy like Kill who could probably care less where his class is ranked as long as the players he brings in can get the job done.

I really took the look back to satisfy my own curiosity. The margin for error is probably slimmer on the lower ranked guys but if your staff can evaluate talent there are plenty of gems to be found. Only time will tell where Kill's staff will fall but I don't anticipate seeing a lot of 4 star guys coming through the door during Kill's time here. Whether that is a good thing or a bad thing remains to be seen.
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I think you are on to something no one else has mentioned before, Brewster did not want to recruit 2 stars period, so evaluating his two stars is pointless. I think Brewster actually took a bunch of three stars no other coach would take, simply because they were three stars.
 

Killjoy said:
....that "he's going to have to recruit better players than he did at any other level." Having said that, we need to recognize that Northern Illinois, who had a lot of 2-star players in 2010, was ranked 30th in the final AP poll and 26th in the final USA Today poll. Not bad for a bunch of 2-star players

But the real point I was trying to make is that Jerry and his staff knows how to find, recruit, and coach under the radar players as good as anybody. The reality is that this is an absolute necessity until the program is turned around.
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As of today, I would be happy with a 30th ranked team with 2* players.
 

I like Ron Paul in the Republican Primary...which tells as much about how Kill and Gophers will perform in the future as this thread's topic.
 

TCF=UnitedWeStand said:
Fair, but NIU pounded us the year before at TCF, and nearly beat Wisconsin at Wisconsin the same year (I believe it was 2010).

Is it fair to say, lets see what happens?
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Sure, but let me be clear. Kill is clearly bringing in better classes of talent than he did at Northern Illinois. There's no way in hell he even sniffs a player like Pirsig if he's at a MAC school. I'm not criticizing Kill's recruiting. I think he could stand to set his goals a little higher sometimes, but I also understand the "bird in the hand" argument, and I appreciate that he's willing to offer someone totally under the radar. That's risky, and a lot of coaches won't do it.

That said, Northern Illinois is ranked as a top 30 team this year because they did very well in the MAC. Voters looked at their 10-3 record and placed them ahead of teams with less wins primarily out of principle. Are they actually one of the 30 best teams in the country? It's my opinion (and this always leads to debates) that if you put that same team in the Big Ten this year and they are, at best, a 6-6 or 7-5 team. Now, as a Gophers fan, would I take that? Probably not as the absolute pinnacle of the team's potential, but in an average year, sure.

And, if you add in some of the more talented players Kill couldn't get at NIU, and you've got yourself a promising roster that could at least have an 8-9 win season every few years.

So I'm not bashing Kill's recruiting, what I am saying is that just because the 2 star approach worked at NIU and SIU does not mean it will work in the Big Ten. It's just as much apples and oranges as comparing Brewster's 2 star players to Kill's.
 

More than anything, what surprises me is how many of these 2-star players have either played in the NFL or were at least on an NFL practice squad at some point. From a quick scan, here is who have played on Sunday's or at least were on a practice squad:

Eslinger, Spaeth, Hosack, Montgomery, Lloyd, Payne, Russell, Decker, Alford

Go Gophers!!
 

There is a fundamental difference in the two stars Kill recruits, in the past a lot of the two stars were undersized overachivers, today the two stars have appropriate size and speed for their position. They tend to be late bloomer types, or from small schools ,that were overlooked. Having appropriate size and speed means that they only need to live up to their potential, not overachieve, so they start with a better chance for sucess.
 

Thanks Gopherprof

This has been a good discusion. The reality of all of this is we won't know the answer to our questions for a few years. Even so, I can't help but feeling positive about what has occured during Kill's first year.
 

Kill has to win some games before he attracts 3 and 4* recruits. I'm looking to a sweep of the non-con schedule next year as a move in that direction.
 

Great Plains Gopher said:
Kill has to win some games before he attracts 3 and 4* recruits. I'm looking to a sweep of the non-con schedule next year as a move in that direction.
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Thank you someone finally said it! Most kids probably have the general perception that our program is bad. You can't just suddenly pick-up 3 or 4 star recruits without getting WINS
BTW- 12 3-star recruits, 8 2-star recruits and 3 unranked. Looking like no matter what we have a majority of 3-star recruits.
 

zambam said:
Thank you someone finally said it! Most kids probably have the general perception that our program is bad. You can't just suddenly pick-up 3 or 4 star recruits without getting WINS
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??

It happened here less than a few years ago under Brewster....
 

When you have classes where most of the players are 2 stars of course some of them are going to end up contributing, they basically have to. And having that many 2 stars contribute or be "good" during that stretch could very well explain or at least be a major reason why the teams during that stretch were not very good. If you take a look at teams in the top 25 polls that are from bcs conferences you will find that nearly all of them have had a top 25 class within the past 5 years (still on roster).
 


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