Why can't Minnesota win six games in 2011?

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LonelyIowaGopher

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Why is it such a stretch to think that Minnesota can win six games next year? Outside of USC, they should win all of their nonconference games. That leaves them just three Big 10 games to win. After Brewster had his two, first full recruiting classes, what Gopher fan would have thought that three Big 10 wins two or three years later would be so improbable?

One of the hallmarks of an effective coach is that his teams always play better in November (see Ferentz, Kirk). If Minnesota is playing its best ball of the season under Jerry Kill next November, they should beat Northwestern on the road and Illinois at home.

In addition to defeating Illinois, I think the Gophers will beat at least one of the three remaining Big 10 teams they play at home (Nebraska, Iowa or Wisconsin). Minnesota plays Nebraska at home after a bye week. They beat Iowa at home last year in no small part because that game followed a bye week for Minnesota. Also, Nebraska just isnt' what it used to be. Iowa State beat them in Lincoln in 2009 and almost beat them in overtime at home last year. Finally, Bo Pellini is no Tom Osborne. He and his brother are in reality a couple of real hot heads. Did anyone watch them on the sidelines when Nebraska lost to Texas A&M late last fall?

Iowa and Wisconsin will be (much?) weaker teams in 2011 than they were in 2010. There is also a chance Minnesota can beat Purdue or Michigan on the road. Michigan State in East Lansing will probably be the Gophers' toughest Big 10 game next year.

Minnesota will finish at least 6-6 in 2011.
 

I wouldn't be shocked if they win 6+ games, and I think they have the pure talent to do it. But a coaching change can throw things completely off for a while (just look at how changing coordinators purportedly hurt the offense). I wouldn't count any of those NC games just yet.

On the topic, this is one of those seasons that's going to have a really wide range of potential. There's a lot of talent on the team, but we're really thin at some important spots. This coach should be an improvement over the last, but the transition could be rough. Anywhere from 3 to 8 wins wouldn't really surprise me too much.
 

There are people who don't think the Gophers will win 6 games, but not many who think we can't win 6 games. I prefer to keep expectations low. Makes it look a lot better when you exceed them.
 

Winning six will not be easy, but could happen. One obstacle is the scheduling of Southern Cal, which was put on our schedule way too early in the new program. Gophers might win two of three between Purdue, Illinois, N'western; win the three other non-conference games - and then add an upset (Iowa, Wisconsin, but probably not Nebraska).
 

I'd be disappointed if we didn't win 8. We beat Iowa last year and have them Wisconsin, Nebraska all at home with no Ohio St or Penn St and not your Pete Carroll USC teams.
 


Reasons the gophers may not win 6 games:
1) QB play - completely unproven, could be terrible
2) Some new Olinemen need to step up, we have seen what bad olines can do to seasons
3) Pash Rush, haven't had one since Willie V left
4) Secondary, Carter has been average at best, Theret is gone, Royston is coming off injury, Collado will be missed (did I just say that), nobody knows how the new guys will play
5) Schedule, @USC, @Michigan, Nebraska, Iowa, @Michigan State, Wisconsin are all games that will be very difficult to win.
@ Purdue, @ Northwestern, Illinois are tough to win (always tough to beat anyone in conference
On paper Miami of Ohio could be better than the gophers.
The only "gimme's" on the schedule are New Mexico State and North Dakota State......and we all know how well the gophers have played against the Dakota schools the past 6 years.

New Mexico State is the only game that I can say with 100% certainty will be a win.

Reasons why the team could be a 6+ win team:
There is some talent on this team IMO, if things click early the gophers could cause some problems for people. Mcknight is a tough cover for anyone in the Big Ten. Deep running back group (though not a bunch of studs). Fast Linebackers (I think this will be the best the linebacker play will be since 99). Stable coaching staff (should be less drama this year).
 

Boy, Brewster must have REALLY done a good job of recruiting! According to some responses on this thread, all Minnesota lacks is a quarterback, an offensive line, a defensive line and a defensive secondary. Maybe they can't win six games.

I just thought Brewster had to have recruited SOMEBODY to play at Minnesota and that Jerry Kill would do a much better job with that talent. But after the Big 10 Conference's total dominance in bowl games, it's probably too much to expect Kill to be competitive against powerhouses like Michigan, Purdue and Northwestern. What a brutal conference road schedule the Gophers will have to play. I hope the coaches don't watch how Michigan State cleaned up on Alabama recently.
 





It's surprising how few posters actually have an opinion on whether Minnesota can win six games next year. Even fewer give reasons why they think the way they do. I guess talking about future wins isn't important, although talking about the 2012 and 2013 recruiting classes is always a hot topic around here.
 

RedPoo said:
I wouldn't be shocked if they win 6+ games, and I think they have the pure talent to do it. But a coaching change can throw things completely off for a while (just look at how changing coordinators purportedly hurt the offense). I wouldn't count any of those NC games just yet.

On the topic, this is one of those seasons that's going to have a really wide range of potential. There's a lot of talent on the team, but we're really thin at some important spots. This coach should be an improvement over the last, but the transition could be rough. Anywhere from 3 to 8 wins wouldn't really surprise me too much.
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Well put dude. I would have to concer.
 

Coach Kill has said he expects his teams to work harder than other teams and to improve during the season. That is how I am going to judge this season.

It is always fun to project the win/loss record of a team but the real story is going to be about change. How many games we win in 2011 will be overshadowed by the real story. That story will be about the transformation of the culture here and the beginning of a new idenity. First things first.
 

LonelyIowaGopher said:
Boy, Brewster must have REALLY done a good job of recruiting! According to some responses on this thread, all Minnesota lacks is a quarterback, an offensive line, a defensive line and a defensive secondary. Maybe they can't win six games.
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WTF are you talking about? Let me unpack it for you:
- We're not lacking a QB. We have a very talented one. He's just inexperienced and will be learning a new system. That is not a scenario that lends itself to certainty.
- We're going to be young in spots the O-Line. Brew in fact did hurt the team by under-recruiting this area in previous classes. We're either old or young on the line (as Kill has said). Again, with young guys on the line you don't know what you're going to get.
- D-Line. The problem with the D-Line is depth.
- Secondary. Again, new system combined with players who didn't do well last year. We are probably ok talent wise here but their technique sucked last season.

Personally I still think Brew did a pretty good job recruiting talent. He just didn't help them improve in any meaningful way apparently.
LonelyIowaGopher said:
I just thought Brewster had to have recruited SOMEBODY to play at Minnesota and that Jerry Kill would do a much better job with that talent. But after the Big 10 Conference's total dominance in bowl games, it's probably too much to expect Kill to be competitive against powerhouses like Michigan, Purdue and Northwestern. What a brutal conference road schedule the Gophers will have to play. I hope the coaches don't watch how Michigan State cleaned up on Alabama recently.
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I do expect Kill to do better with the talent we have. Expecting him to do it in year one is a bit much. Can they win 6? You bet. Will they? I dunno.
 




minnyrules11 said:
I'd be disappointed if we didn't win 8. We beat Iowa last year and have them Wisconsin, Nebraska all at home with no Ohio St or Penn St and not your Pete Carroll USC teams.
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Not sure if serious...
 

LonelyIowaGopher said:
It's surprising how few posters actually have an opinion on whether Minnesota can win six games next year. Even fewer give reasons why they think the way they do. I guess talking about future wins isn't important, although talking about the 2012 and 2013 recruiting classes is always a hot topic around here.
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Maybe most of us are waiting until after Spring practices. Ya know, when we actually know a little bit about how the team is transitioning under the new coaching staff?
 


Lots of questions to be answered.

I see no reason why the Gophers could not win as many as 8 games this next year. With all the changes to the coaching staff and another offense and defense the Gophers could struggle to win 5 games. It could be all over the map this year which is why it makes it do interesting but also tough to say because we know so very little.

I think the Gopher schedule is set up well for a high number of wins as the Non-Conference schedule isnt as tough as in past years and USC will have a tough time preparing for the Gophers with all the changes we will have. I think the timing of the USC game is as good as it could be as USC will have no tape to watch which should help the Gophers. The Big Ten schedule isnt bad either not compared to past years as team like Iowa and Wisconsin are losing some major contributers. Michigan will be going similar changes to the Gophers with a new coaching staff. Illinois, Northwestern, and Purdue are not top end Big Ten teams. Depending on how quickly the new Gopher Coaches can get the systems in place and how quickly the teams accepts them will determin just how good they can be. I don't see many games where I see that is a loss but I also dont see many games where I say that is a win either.

What to like
Experienced and talented stable of RB's. The top talent is young but two solid veterans have been around.

The D-line for the most part has been around and should be even better this season. Losing Edwards hurts some but this group should be better than last year which will also help the LBers.

The LBers should be as improved a unit as this team has. Moving Tinlsey outside with Beal going to the middle should add another strong tackler to the defense. This should also get Tinsley blitzing more which could be a great thing because he is such a hard hitter.

I think this team has a couple strong pass catchers with McKnight and Lair both of whom could have big years next season. The problem is those around them will be questioned. The sooner the other pass catchers improve this unit will be a suprise if we can get them the ball. Is it an All American group? Of course it isnt but it could be good enough to make the Gopher offense balanced and dangerous.

What is scarry.
The QB spot- As much as Gray's running could be a fit in this type of offense its hard to say if he will be able to throw the ball. He just hasnt done it enough to say one way or the other. His inability to work his way past Weber the last couple of years is a concern to me.

O-Line I have no doubt we have more natural skill along the line top to bottom but is it ready to play? We will not know until they take the field and there will be growing pains. If this group performs at the same level or higher than last years group the Gophers will win 6 games that I do not doubt.

Secondary- Royston is back to supply experience not sure if he adds much more than that. He didnt play well in his first year as a Gopher I hope he can play well this year. Carter needs to step up and get on the field. Everything is a question mark.


Is a 6 win season possible? Yes it is very possible IMO then again I think 8 wins is too but so it 5 wins.
 

It's kind of funny around here. Very few posters are willing to discuss what might happen for the Gophers in the win/loss column in less than twelve months. Excuses such as "we want to see these guys in spring practive" abound.

But when it comes to talking about the playing potential of a future recruit someone has seen a brief video of, posters here have all kinds of insights about what a great player that POTENTIAL recruit might have.

Don't Gopher fans know enough about the players they've followed for one, two and three years to have an opinion about how many games they might win next year and why they think the way they do? Did Brewster do a good job of recruiting or a very poor one? How hard is that to determine at this point?

What about the rest of the Big 10? Don't Gopher fans have thoughts about how many key players Iowa and Wisconsin have lost last since last year? How good is Nebraska these days? I know answering these questions might take more than a one sentence response but what other purpose is there for a discussion board?
 


RodentRampage said:
I thought you had a sarcasm detector.
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With people tossing out "we WILL win 6 games" this season who knows what people are capable of expecting. Plus, there's no context to the statement. At least Lonely surrounded his "bowl game" thing with lots of other sarcastic stuff. :)

I'm going to wait until Spring before making predictions.
 

IMO the biggest obstacle to winning 6 games is, we don't even know if the returning players will mesh well with the new coaches. Remember, by all accounts we've heard that returning players will be in a for a huge culture shock in how the program is run, everything from meetings to practices. If a few key players do not take well to the new routines, it could lead to more transfers, being in the doghouse, lack of effort, etc. Any of that is going to hurt the team heading into the fall. So, step 1 will be getting these players on board, practicing hard and keeping a good attitude.
 

gopher7 said:
IMO the biggest obstacle to winning 6 games is, we don't even know if the returning players will mesh well with the new coaches. Remember, by all accounts we've heard that returning players will be in a for a huge culture shock in how the program is run, everything from meetings to practices. If a few key players do not take well to the new routines, it could lead to more transfers, being in the doghouse, lack of effort, etc. Any of that is going to hurt the team heading into the fall. So, step 1 will be getting these players on board, practicing hard and keeping a good attitude.
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Exactly.
 

Thanks for an absolutely great post, WolfontheProwl. Sincerely, I could not have asked for a more informed and nuanced response to my questions.

I think Tim Brewster upgraded recruiting at Minnesota and I was always impressed with how hard his kids usually played right to the end of most games. I was also impressed with the great, great character those players showed at the end of last season. Many Iowa fans complimented me last fall on the Gophers' win over the Hawkeyes--and, believe me, that was not easy for them to do.

Finally, Tim Brewster needs to be recognized for putting more of Minnesota's talent on the defensive side of the ball. Mason's defenses were truly awful and kept the Gophers from becoming at least as strong as Iowa and Wisconsin while Mason was at Minnesota. Brewster's defense in 2009 was quite good and would have been excellent had the offense been worth a darn. Last year's group was just too young to be effective, YET.
 

LonelyIowaGopher said:
Thanks for an absolutely great post, WolfontheProwl. Sincerely, I could not have asked for a more informed and nuanced response to my questions.

I think Tim Brewster upgraded recruiting at Minnesota and I was always impressed with how hard his kids usually played right to the end of most games. I was also impressed with the great, great character those players showed at the end of last season. Many Iowa fans complimented me last fall on the Gophers' win over the Hawkeyes--and, believe me, that was not easy for them to do.

Finally, Tim Brewster needs to be recognized for putting more of Minnesota's talent on the defensive side of the ball. Mason's defenses were truly awful and kept the Gophers from becoming at least as strong as Iowa and Wisconsin while Mason was at Minnesota. Brewster's defense in 2009 was quite good and would have been excellent had the offense been worth a darn. Last year's group was just too young to be effective, YET.
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Lonely, I have to say that you are the most head scratching poster on this board right now. I can't figure you out. You respond to negative posters by ignoring nuance and lumping anyone with concerns under the same title of trolls (which is what I've been calling you out for) and then you appreciate nuance and add some of it yourself here.
 

GoAUpher said:
Lonely, I have to say that you are the most head scratching poster on this board right now. I can't figure you out. You respond to negative posters by ignoring nuance and lumping anyone with concerns under the same title of trolls (which is what I've been calling you out for) and then you appreciate nuance and add some of it yourself here.
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The man enjoys dialogue and the give and take from it. That is also his learning style. What he is doing is gathering information and then formulating his opinions from a broader perspective. That why he throws out a lot of questions.
 

What will spring practice prove?

I think its interesting everyone is wanting to wait for spring practice to determin how good or bad the Gophers will be next year. If you want to know how we will look. I would guess we will look confused, lost, and at times pathetic. The players will be getting their first cracks at another new offense and a new defense which means plenty of question marks and problems.

Spring practice is not supposed to look good its supposed to be a teaching time and people put way to much stock into it.
 

Thanks, again, Killjoy. I'd just add that the information and broader perspectives I'm seeking involve by nature more than bullet responses at times. Your CEO post of yesterday is a perfect example of what I'm looking for, as were a couple of GoAUpher comments of today.

But--from now on--everytime someone like Highwayman calls me an idiot and a troll. Im going to call an idiot and a troll. It doesn't improve the discussion around here but does hold a mirror to the faces of some posters.

By the way, Highwayman is an idiot and a troll.
 

Take a look in the mirror. Every time someone posts that they don't think the Gophers will win 6 games, you have a fit.
 

Recruiting

Winning six games is realistic in my opinion. We have done it frequently lately in recent past history. It is important to show the 2012 recruits that progress is being made and go to a lower level bowl again....any bowl.

There is the largest group of DI Minnesota recruits in a long time. They will make other choices if we look woeful again next year (prior to closing strong this past season). It is not just a number.
Six has significance in perception beyond a 500 regular season. Going to a bowl...being a bowl team....getting the extra practices. The perception to a recruit if I sign on I can make a difference and get us to a better bowl. Versus I don't know....they are pretty bad.
 

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