I don't get all the pessimism on the projected record sites. While the overall schedule is a bit tougher, last year had two guaranteed wins and two guaranteed losses and 8 toss-ups of varying degrees. This year has two guaranteed wins and one guaranteed loss, maybe. And PJ usually wins his share of the toss-ups.
I agree.
Washington’s best conference win last year was Illinois. Second best was maybe Rutgers? Also had a loss to Wisconsin
Penn state was 7-6 and now has Iowa states 8-4 roster
Michigan could be great or could be a shit show.
Indiana could be great or could come back down to being just good.
Iowa at home lost everything
Wisconsin maybe have an interim by the time they play.
Purdue isn’t free but isn’t good
UCLA at home in November and they weren’t a bowl team last year
Northwestern at home will be tough but a toss up probably (or if the defense shows up won’t be a toss up)
I see 3 probable losses (Indiana, Michigan, Penn state (but only because it’s on the road))
A few 40-60 games (Iowa, Washington)
And a bunch of 60-40 games (Purdue, northwestern, UCLA,
A free win (Wisconsin)
Makes those 3 probably losses 20% chance of victory and my expected conference wins this year is 5.2
I will guess 8-4 (5-4)
Anything less than 5-4 will disappoint me
A loss to a non conference team will disappoint me but not as much as a loss that makes them 4-5
Get to 6-3 and I can forgive a non conference loss and call it a success. But better not because 9-3 they could be in the playoff conversation late in the year.