PP: Are Niko Medved’s Gophers an NCAA tournament team?

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Per Greder:

Can Medved’s second squad break a seven-year drought and reach March Madness in 2027? They will need to stay healthier in order to make a jump in Year 2.

“Boy, it’s hard to say,” Medved replied. “I mean, that’s obviously the goal. You (reporters) will get tired of me. Every year, no matter what anyone’s expectations are, if somebody says we’re preseason this or that, I’ve been picked to win the league. I’ve been picked in the bottom of the league in every place I’ve been."

www.twincities.com

Are Niko Medved’s Gophers an NCAA tournament team?

Minnesota returns five players and added talent through the transfer portal.
www.twincities.com www.twincities.com

Go Gophers!!
 

We don't have the game experience as we did last year.. my initial thought is no... If medved can get the production out of this roster like he did last year I think we sneak in. I'm not counting on it for another season however
 

Off-GridTNgopher said:
We don't have the game experience as we did last year.. my initial thought is no... If medved can get the production out of this roster like he did last year I think we sneak in. I'm not counting on it for another season however
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I agree that we are not a lock but have the coach who could sneak us in there, but explain to me how we have less experience going into this year than last.
 


Off-GridTNgopher said:
Because the players medved brought in his first year had a lot more in game experience
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Yes. I guess the only thing that counters that is that Asuma, Crocker-Johnson, Durkin, Grove, and Shinholster are a year more experienced.
 



Off-GridTNgopher said:
Because the players medved brought in his first year had a lot more in game experience
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Trade off is he has a few guys who return that had starter/sixman type of minutes in the bigten, he also brought in two guys who played a lot of minutes in the ACC and the Big East. They should be okay in that regard, it's not clear who will step up and be the alpha, but Nikos CSU teams also had a record of guys setting better both in season and from season to season, Roddy, Stephens, Tonje, Clifford weren't alphas when they walked in, but turn themselves into those types of players as they got older. Will be on the bubble I think, but we will be playing meaningful basketball in February.
 

My feeling is this season we will be better than last, but it's really the following year when our high-upside younger guys should be ready for prime time & we could be dangerous. Obviously we'll lose some of these guys to the portal or attrition but on paper we could go nine-deep that would all be upperclassmen.

Asuma Sr
Evans Sr (5th year)
JCJ Sr (5th year)
Durkin Sr (5th year)
Grove r-Jr
Kordel Jr
Palmer Sr
Shinholster Sr
Groves Sr
Grady r-So
Anderson So
Mpoyi So
 

The bad news is the team is unlikely to have anyone as talented as Cade Tyson. The good news is that it's unlikely that injuries are going to deplete the roster down to six playable guys. The tourney will have 76 teams next year and Medved can coach. Unless he puts together another putrid preseason schedule, ten B1G wins gets him in comfortably.

I say yes.
 



I don’t think they are. I think Niko will get more out of the talent on the roster than most coaches, but in my opinion the talent has not been upgraded enough. Maybe one of the newcomers surprises though…
 

I think we’re bubbly, and in Niko’s Year 2, unless we’re ravaged by injuries, we need to be bubbly. Being bubbly represents upward trajectory. If we’re not at worst a bubble team, we probably wound up in the 7-9 B10 wins range again, and it means the talent level didn’t upgrade enough. And for all of Niko’s tactical acumen, with no upward trajectory, NIL is not likely to change, buzz around the program won’t grow, and there’s just no reason to expect a talent upgrade in Year 3 either. And I think building for Year 3 is a doomed strategy - assume everyone who doesn’t get playing time leaves + Durkin + JCJ + 1 unpleasant surprise. These days, the future is always now.

Having said that, I hold out hope that we’re a better team and the conference isn’t quite as good. While the B10 floor is improving, the ceiling has to lower.
 

FritoPendejo said:
I think we’re bubbly, and in Niko’s Year 2, unless we’re ravaged by injuries, we need to be bubbly. Being bubbly represents upward trajectory. If we’re not at worst a bubble team, we probably wound up in the 7-9 B10 wins range again, and it means the talent level didn’t upgrade enough. And for all of Niko’s tactical acumen, with no upward trajectory, NIL is not likely to change, buzz around the program won’t grow, and there’s just no reason to expect a talent upgrade in Year 3 either. And I think building for Year 3 is a doomed strategy - assume everyone who doesn’t get playing time leaves + Durkin + JCJ + 1 unpleasant surprise. These days, the future is always now.

Having said that, I hold out hope that we’re a better team and the conference isn’t quite as good. While the B10 floor is improving, the ceiling has to lower.
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Spot on. This is a huge year for the program to really begin to change course.
 

I think we are definitely a bubble team. Most experts didn't rank us very high in our transfer ranking, but we saw firsthand what Niko did with a patchwork limited roster last year. Not many coaches could have coaxed 15 wins out of that roster with the injuries we dealt with. Niko addressed major needs and retained a lot of our core. I see us with 20, 21 wins potentially. This team has more depth and height in the front court.
 



gopherbadgerman said:
I don’t think they are. I think Niko will get more out of the talent on the roster than most coaches, but in my opinion the talent has not been upgraded enough. Maybe one of the newcomers surprises though…
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A sentiment occasionally expressed in the past was that NCAA basketball was a coaches' game while the NBA was a players' game. I do wonder in the age of unlimited free agency and well-paid college players if the NCAA has become less of a coaches' game and more of a players' game.

I'm often reminded of the venerable Dean Smith's words in an interview after he retired: "I'd call a timeout and diagram a play. Now, whether the ball went in the hoop or not, well, that's where recruiting came in."

The trouble right now is that we simply do not have enough information to get a good idea of how much this team may be improved. Sure, having more healthy bodies should help but last year's team actually played better after the active scholarship roster was reduced to 7 players. Perhaps there is something to be said for the greater familiarity between players and the fact that everybody is needed and will play.

It would be easier to feel more confidence if we recruited a demonstrated producer like we got with Tyson and, to a lesser extent, with Reynolds last season. Two of our recruits were freshmen on a loaded national championship team and there were few minutes for them. They could be good but we simply don't know much about their effectiveness at the collegiate level. If nothing else, Kordell is definitely bigger than anyone we've had in a long time. Reynolds took a big jump from his soph to junior year and perhaps Palmer could do the same. He's already shown that he's a good shooter but hasn't generated impressive numbers in anything else so far.
 
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JZABR said:
This team has more depth and height in the front court.
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Compared to last year's team once the roster of active scholarship players was reduced to 7 players, absolutely. The only players who could be called 4s or 5s were JCJ and Grove and then we had just Grove. Still, there are only 4 players that you could call 4s or 5s on this team (Durkin doesn't count and I doubt Palmer does either). I would call that about the minimum for most P4 rosters. Granted, we do have the tallest player we've had in some time.
 

Niko can make it happen but even he isn't sure in June if they can make the tournament. Jon Rothstein has a Top 45 in the country he updates daily for Fanduel. 12 Big Ten teams are in his Top 37 teams ...12 Big Ten teams might make the tourney? Would the Gophers be in any of these guys Top 100? So, the Gophers starting line is well back to get into that pack of 12. But, Maryland didn't make his list...that'd be a solid 13 if they get the big guy a waiver or probably even without.
Rothstein Too many teams better than the Gophers on paper. Very tough schedule to find 8 Big Ten wins... maybe Winters Grady is Keaton Wagler?
 

60's Guy said:
Jon Rothstein has a Top 45 in the country he updates daily for Fanduel. 12 Big Ten teams are in his Top 37 teams ...12 Big Ten teams might make the tourney?
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We're now in the third year of the 18 team league. 9 teams made the tournament last year and 8 made it the year before. I'd say 12 is a stretch.
 



Niko showed last year that his systems can work in the Big Ten even with a depleted roster that should have gotten smoked on paper.

I like their chances of making the NCAA Tournament this year but it is tough to know really what to expect until all the teams hit the court in order to fight it out.
 

I agree 100% Niko coached brilliantly last year.

However, the consensus is that at least 13 Big Ten teams have a better roster going into the season than we do. Likely max 12 make the tournament...right?

Question is...who is it easier for? the opponents to figure out an advantage versus Niko's system in year two or Niko to find an advantage versus the opponents systems?

Unscientific history from the Mountain West...Richard Pitino was 5 and 2 versus Niko in their last 3 seasons versus each other. Richard plays at a faster pace. Maybe Niko has found the right conference to excel with pace of play?

If 12 teams do make the make the tournament in the Big Ten and all we gotta do is climb over 1 or 2 to get in....our odds should be pretty good...unfortunately somebody from the other bottom group is likely rise up as well. And nobody is a pushover.

You are right! It will be a battle. We can absolutely do it...just not easily. There are 10 Big Ten teams we would be shocked if they don't make the tournament...pretty much unanimous Top 30 in the country among guys who research and make lists. Wisconsin, Oregon and Maryland are mentioned as Top 30-50 teams...we don't enter the discussion...so realistically we need to jump two of those 3 if the other 10 teams do their thing...and they pretty much do most every year. (Maybe one or two flop?) It'll still be harder for us to get to 10 wins than it will be for the other 13 teams ...historically, traditionally and on paper. Niko is the X factor and one of these guys needs to be Cade Tyson...we gotta have a consistent best player. Most teams know who that is...we do not.
 

NCAA Tournament team? Gotta get to 10 wins to enter the discussion.


The year-by-year breakdown for these 10-win seasons is as follows:
  • 1972-73: 10-4 under head coach Bill Musselman
  • 1976-77: 15-3 (vacated)
  • 1981-82: 11 and 3 Dutcher Big Ten Champs
  • 1988-89: 10-8 under head coach Clem Haskins
  • 1996-97: 16-2 (vacated)
  • 2016-17: 11-7 under head coach Richard Pitino
Note: In the expanded 20-game Big Ten schedule era that began in the 2019-20 season, Minnesota's closest conference win total was 9-11 in the 2020-21 campaign.
8 and 12 last year!
10 wins doesn't happen much for the Gophers
 
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60's Guy said:
I agree 100% Niko coached brilliantly last year.

However, the consensus is that at least 13 Big Ten teams have a better roster going into the season than we do. Likely max 12 make the tournament...right?

Question is...who is it easier for? the opponents to figure out an advantage versus Niko's system in year two or Niko to find an advantage versus the opponents systems?

Unscientific history from the Mountain West...Richard Pitino was 5 and 2 versus Niko in their last 3 seasons versus each other. Richard plays at a faster pace. Maybe Niko has found the right conference to excel with pace of play?

If 12 teams do make the make the tournament in the Big Ten and all we gotta do is climb over 1 or 2 to get in....our odds should be pretty good...unfortunately somebody from the other bottom group is likely rise up as well. And nobody is a pushover.

You are right! It will be a battle. We can absolutely do it...just not easily. There are 10 Big Ten teams we would be shocked if they don't make the tournament...pretty much unanimous Top 30 in the country among guys who research and make lists. Wisconsin, Oregon and Maryland are mentioned as Top 30-50 teams...we don't enter the discussion...so realistically we need to jump two of those 3 if the other 10 teams do their thing...and they pretty much do most every year. (Maybe one or two flop?) It'll still be harder for us to get to 10 wins than it will be for the other 13 teams ...historically, traditionally and on paper. Niko is the X factor and one of these guys needs to be Cade Tyson...we gotta have a consistent best player. Most teams know who that is...we do not.
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Richard also had a core of Mashburn Jr, Dent, House and Toppin that played together for three years. Out of those rankings perennial disappointments Indiana and USC are mentioned. How many portal championshios has USC won under Museelman only to have it not come together? Indiana replacing their entire roster. Who does Nebraska have a PG? Who does Wisconsin have at any guard? How will Purdue replace four starters, including the two guys that have been their starting backcourt for four years? Alot of these takes incredibly lazy as know one has any idea how all these new rosters come together, and yet everyone under sells Iowa who has ten guys back, Minnesota has three starters who averaged double figures points a night, they are starting at a pretty good spot in that regard and I think people are under estimating that experience piece.
 

60's Guy said:
NCAA Tournament team? Gotta get to 10 wins to enter the discussion.


The year-by-year breakdown for these 10-win seasons is as follows:
  • 1972-73: 10-4 under head coach Bill Musselman
  • 1976-77: 15-3 (vacated)
  • 1981-82: 11 and 3 Dutcher Big Ten Champs
  • 1988-89: 10-8 under head coach Clem Haskins
  • 1996-97: 16-2 (vacated)
  • 2016-17: 11-7 under head coach Richard Pitino
Note: In the expanded 20-game Big Ten schedule era that began in the 2019-20 season, Minnesota's closest conference win total was 9-11 in the 2020-21 campaign.
8 and 12 last year!
10 wins doesn't happen much for the Gophers
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Minnesota also went 11-7 in 89-90, 10-8 in 92-93, 93-94, 94-95 and 95-96. 10-6 in 04-05. Minnesota also went 9-11 in the 18-19 campaign and 23-24 campaigns. They went 6-14 in 20-21
 

The Deliberate Stranger said:
Richard also had a core of Mashburn Jr, Dent, House and Toppin that played together for three years. Out of those rankings perennial disappointments Indiana and USC are mentioned. How many portal championshios has USC won under Museelman only to have it not come together? Indiana replacing their entire roster. Who does Nebraska have a PG? Who does Wisconsin have at any guard? How will Purdue replace four starters, including the two guys that have been their starting backcourt for four years? Alot of these takes incredibly lazy as know one has any idea how all these new rosters come together, and yet everyone under sells Iowa who has ten guys back, Minnesota has three starters who averaged double figures points a night, they are starting at a pretty good spot in that regard and I think people are under estimating that experience piece.
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Well, for Musselman and USC...it could only be two...he's entering his third year at USC and "their results have been hampered by injury."
Indiana has an acclaimed coach in his second year with a consensus better roster top 25 roster.
Wisconsin has an Australian professional all star at guard.

Many people like Nebraska's team...their guard:
Nebraska added a significant piece for its backcourt with signing of Utah Valley transfer Trevan Leonhardt (pronounced TREV-uhn LIN-hart) on Wednesday.
A 6-foot-5, 175-pound guard from Kaysville, Utah, Leonhardt was a two-year starter at Utah Valley, leading the Wolverines to 50 wins and consecutive Western Athletic Conference regular-season championships in 2025 and 2026. In three seasons, he set Utah Valley’s career record in steals (159) and ranked second in assists (419). He has one year of eligibility remaining.
“We are excited to add Trevan to our program, as we thought he was one of the best guards in the transfer portal.” Nebraska Coach Fred Hoiberg said. “He is a bigger guard who provides us with positional size in the backcourt. Trevan led the WAC in both assists and assist-to-turnover ratio the last two seasons which shows his ability to run an offense and facilitate. This season, he emerged as more of a scorer, averaging double figures and shot over 50 percent from the field and 37 percent from 3-point range. Defensively, he possesses the size to guard multiple positions and is very active in getting deflections and steals, which is important in our system.”
Leonhardt started all 34 games, averaging 11.9 points per game on 51 percent shooting along with 6.0 assists, 5.4 rebounds and 2.1 steals per game in helping Utah Valley to a 25-9 record and an NIT appearance in 2025-26. A first-team All-WAC performer, he ranked in the top 25 nationally in both assists per game (23rd) and steals per game (18th), as Utah Valley won the regular-season WAC title with a 14-4 mark. He led the WAC in both assists per game and assist-to-turnover ratio (2.20-to-1) and ranked among the conference leaders in minutes (34.4, second), steals (third), rebounds (11th) and points (14th) per game. Leonhardt, who was also named to the all-defensive team, posted 21 double-figure games, including a trio of 20-point efforts. He posted a trio of double-doubles, including two games with double-figures in both points and assists, as his 205 assists broke his own school mark set the previous season. Leonhardt was one of three players nationally who averaged 5.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 2.0 steals per game in 2025-26, a list that also included NU senior guard Sam Hoiberg.
He moved into the starting lineup as a sophomore, helping Utah Valley to a 25-9 record, an outright WAC regular season and an NIT appearance. He averaged 5.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game in 34 starts, as he ranked fifth nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio (3.36-to-1). He set a school record with 178 assists and ranked 45th nationally in assists per game. He had a season-high 14 points against Utah Tech, one of six double-digit efforts on the season. He had 13 points, eight rebounds and seven assists against Samford and 10 points and six assists in the WAC title game loss to Grand Canyon. He played in all 32 games as a redshirt freshman, averaging 2.1 points 1.8 rebounds 1.1 assists per game while shooting 52 percent from the field.
Leonhardt was a first-team all-state performer at Davis High School, averaging 11.2 points, 5.7 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.9 steals per game as a senior. He led his team to the title game of the 2020 6A Utah State High School Championship and a state semifinal appearance in 2019. In 2020, Leonhardt left basketball for two years to serve a mission for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, spending time in Scottsdale, Arizona due to COVID travel restrictions, and eventually in Chile before completing his mission. During that time, he did not play organized basketball.
Purdue history says will make the tournament:
Screenshot 2026-06-15 at 12.48.02 AM.png
I am not underselling Iowa...very confident they are a tournament team and one people are picking in their top 30 teams in the country.
13 teams have better rosters...what's lazy about that? Minnesota only has a better roster...if somebody unknown, unproven emerges big time or a couple somebodies or Niko is really Curt Cignetti and can see talents in players that other coaches can't and is able to develop them.
 

60's Guy said:
Well, for Musselman and USC...it could only be two...he's entering his third year at USC and "their results have been hampered by injury."
Indiana has an acclaimed coach in his second year with a consensus better roster top 25 roster.
Wisconsin has an Australian professional all star at guard.

Many people like Nebraska's team...their guard:
Nebraska added a significant piece for its backcourt with signing of Utah Valley transfer Trevan Leonhardt (pronounced TREV-uhn LIN-hart) on Wednesday.
A 6-foot-5, 175-pound guard from Kaysville, Utah, Leonhardt was a two-year starter at Utah Valley, leading the Wolverines to 50 wins and consecutive Western Athletic Conference regular-season championships in 2025 and 2026. In three seasons, he set Utah Valley’s career record in steals (159) and ranked second in assists (419). He has one year of eligibility remaining.
“We are excited to add Trevan to our program, as we thought he was one of the best guards in the transfer portal.” Nebraska Coach Fred Hoiberg said. “He is a bigger guard who provides us with positional size in the backcourt. Trevan led the WAC in both assists and assist-to-turnover ratio the last two seasons which shows his ability to run an offense and facilitate. This season, he emerged as more of a scorer, averaging double figures and shot over 50 percent from the field and 37 percent from 3-point range. Defensively, he possesses the size to guard multiple positions and is very active in getting deflections and steals, which is important in our system.”
Leonhardt started all 34 games, averaging 11.9 points per game on 51 percent shooting along with 6.0 assists, 5.4 rebounds and 2.1 steals per game in helping Utah Valley to a 25-9 record and an NIT appearance in 2025-26. A first-team All-WAC performer, he ranked in the top 25 nationally in both assists per game (23rd) and steals per game (18th), as Utah Valley won the regular-season WAC title with a 14-4 mark. He led the WAC in both assists per game and assist-to-turnover ratio (2.20-to-1) and ranked among the conference leaders in minutes (34.4, second), steals (third), rebounds (11th) and points (14th) per game. Leonhardt, who was also named to the all-defensive team, posted 21 double-figure games, including a trio of 20-point efforts. He posted a trio of double-doubles, including two games with double-figures in both points and assists, as his 205 assists broke his own school mark set the previous season. Leonhardt was one of three players nationally who averaged 5.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 2.0 steals per game in 2025-26, a list that also included NU senior guard Sam Hoiberg.
He moved into the starting lineup as a sophomore, helping Utah Valley to a 25-9 record, an outright WAC regular season and an NIT appearance. He averaged 5.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game in 34 starts, as he ranked fifth nationally in assist-to-turnover ratio (3.36-to-1). He set a school record with 178 assists and ranked 45th nationally in assists per game. He had a season-high 14 points against Utah Tech, one of six double-digit efforts on the season. He had 13 points, eight rebounds and seven assists against Samford and 10 points and six assists in the WAC title game loss to Grand Canyon. He played in all 32 games as a redshirt freshman, averaging 2.1 points 1.8 rebounds 1.1 assists per game while shooting 52 percent from the field.
Leonhardt was a first-team all-state performer at Davis High School, averaging 11.2 points, 5.7 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.9 steals per game as a senior. He led his team to the title game of the 2020 6A Utah State High School Championship and a state semifinal appearance in 2019. In 2020, Leonhardt left basketball for two years to serve a mission for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, spending time in Scottsdale, Arizona due to COVID travel restrictions, and eventually in Chile before completing his mission. During that time, he did not play organized basketball.
Purdue history says will make the tournament:
View attachment 44629
I am not underselling Iowa...very confident they are a tournament team and one people are picking in their top 30 teams in the country.
13 teams have better rosters...what's lazy about that? . Minnesota only has a better roster...if somebody unknown, unproven emerges big time or a couple somebodies or Niko is really Curt Cignetti and can see talents in players that other coaches can't and is able to develop them.
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Injury... Interesting who you will and won't give the benefit of the doubt to on that one. As far as the Hoiberg quote goes Utah Valley lol, I'll bet on the kid from North Carolina via Colorado State. You also don't seem to understand the difference between fact and opinion and you're using data from recruiting sites where the difference between the three Star and four star is a decimal point. Sites that there's no way they have enough time watch all 2k of the players who entered the portal Also, you really think Hoiberg is gonna say yeah I have serious questions about his ability to adapt to the big ten. You're right about Purdue, but as an avid fan you're wasting your time copying and pasting Matt Painter wiki page, but let's not act like the lack of experience is going to be adjustment. Is being a Australian all star like being the world's smartest retard? Didn't 40 year old Dusty Rychart make the all star team in that league? Same song and story at Indiana, acclaimed coach, highly rated portal kids, but what are they joining?
 
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NCAA talk, a team can be a lock, considered likely to make it, has a shot, unlikely, and dream on. I think the gophers are somewhere between unlikely and "it has a shot".
 

goldenboy said:
There are 8 more seats at the table this year. 11 or 12 just might be possible. I’d say 10 is probable.
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Yeah, I forgot about that. In that case, I would agree that 10 is probable but it could end up being difficult to go beyond that. Lets look at last season. The only conference teams with winning records who were left out were Indiana and USC. Both finished 18-14. USC lost its last 8 games of the season and had a final NET ranking of #77. Taking them would have been an outrage. Indiana with a final NET ranking of #41 would have been much more plausible but they were almost as bad as USC down the stretch being saved only by a 30-point drubbing of our team.
 

TwistingMyMelon said:
Yeah, I forgot about that. In that case, I would agree that 10 is probable but it could end up being difficult to go beyond that. Lets look at last season. The only conference teams with winning records who were left out were Indiana and USC. Both finished 18-14. USC lost its last 8 games of the season and had a final NET ranking of #77. Taking them would have been an outrage. Indiana with a final NET ranking of #41 would have been much more plausible but they were almost as bad as USC down the stretch being saved only by a 30-point drubbing of our team.
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Both those teams get in if it had been a 76 team field
 

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