Bruce Feldman's Over/Under Wins Draft: Gophers picked second with 5 1/2

Donate To GopherHole
WindyCityGopher

WindyCityGopher

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 8, 2013
Messages
4,811
Reaction score
5,604
Points
113
Bruce Feldman, Stewart Mandel and Ralph Russo's podcast did a draft of Big Ten teams based on the best bets to exceed or fall short of their projected win totals. Gophers, at 5.5, were picked second, with enthusiastic support that we'll exceed that (PJ, Drake and Anthony Smith all get their flowers). Discussion starts around the 13:35 mark.

 



gopherbadgerman said:
I would take the over at 5.5 all day.
Click to expand...
Seems like on paper we’d be a favorite right now against our three non conference games plus UCLA, Purdue, NW at home, and at Wisconsin. We’d have to lose two of those plus win none of the very winnable matchups against Washington, PSU, Michigan, and Iowa. Even against Indiana we may have a punchers chance depending on how they were able to reload.
 



If Drake Lindsey improves, if the trenches improve, the Gophers should win 8 games. If they don't improve, the Gophers will win 6 games. In my mind they will improve. I think we finally beat Iowa but lose to Michigan, Penn State, Washington and Indiana. If this team ends up being Fleck's best team, we could go 9-3 or 10-2. Tough Schedule. In 2019, we had to beat Penn State but then lost to Iowa and Wisconsin. Very disappointing. We barely beat South Dakota State, Fresno State and Georgia Southern. I feel like this is the best depth at every position that Fleck has had. 2019 had some really good players but we did not have the depth like we should have in 2026.
Just my opinion. I feel like 2019 is the measuring stick at this time.
 


The 2026 Gophers are a 6-6/7-5 lower bowling team or it's 9-3/10-2 team in the hunt for the CFP.

My mind and my heart are at odds...my heart is pumping hard though... can't wait!

GoGophers!
 

Does "Big Ten win totals" in the OP Tweet mean "the win totals of Big Ten teams" or mean "the Big Ten win totals of Big Ten teams"?

Winning 5.5 out 9 conference games would not seem like an obvious lock. So much so that I have to think it was just overall wins.


I don't think we'll easily be favored against Miss State, and that game won't be cold at all.
 



Vegas consensus seems to be this is a 6-6 team. at least on DK, Gophers are -150 for over 5.5 but +150 for over 6.5. That’s quite a drastic odds difference for one win. I got in for 5.5 though as I think that’s basically free money.
 


This is the most talented Gophers team since 2019 and it might be PJs best team since he's been here.
 




GopherGrit said:
I don't think we'll easily be favored against Miss State, and that game won't be cold at all.
Click to expand...
Teams change from year to year obviously, but Minnesota at home vs. MSU at the end of last season would have been about a 7-point favorite. Unless MSU got a bunch of stud recruits and transfers I'm not aware of, we should be favored by at least a TD if not more.
 

I'll take the over, this year feels special. Year 2 of Lindsey, Taylor and Smith back, a deep core of pass rushers back, a deep linebacker room back, Smith/Tracy/Jennings receiver room, some nice DB transfers, OL has had some nice recruits pumped in lately that hopefully means 5 can play. Schedule has no Ohio St, no Oregon, Penn St and Michigan coming off dramatic coaching changes, Iowa is a home game, Wisconsin still sucks, and we get the opportunity to add an SEC win to the resume without having to face a top dog (still a good challenge but doable). This could be a lot of fun.
 
Last edited:

MGGopher said:
Vegas consensus seems to be this is a 6-6 team. at least on DK, Gophers are -150 for over 5.5 but +150 for over 6.5. That’s quite a drastic odds difference for one win. I got in for 5.5 though as I think that’s basically free money.
Click to expand...
yeah seems like most books have shifted to 6.5 with over being plus odds. Makes sense that's the spot it sits based on games
EIU: 14+ favorite
Miss St: ~7pt favorite; we're near even in Massey, we finished about a dozen spots ahead in the Sagarin ratings. We'll be a TD favorite because at home but will swing based on week 1. We should beat the hell out of them with an inexperienced QB coming on the road. We've seen this game before
Akron: 14+ favorite

3-0 non conference is going to be favored. That means you have to go 5-4 in the B10 to cash the over. Everything of course will swing, but based on preseason

At Wash: 7-9 pt dog. Offseason pundits love Washington and they're a preseason top 20 team
Michigan: 10-14 pt dog. Because it's michigan and they're getting a whittingham bump in previews but we're at home is why it isn't 17+

Going to put us at 3-2 going into probably the make or break part of the schedule to books on cashing this bet or not

At Purdue: 10-14pt favorite. On the road so skews some but Purdue should be bad
Iowa: 3 pt dog. over/under will be like 32 so this spread is going to close but preseason predictions also like iowa

1-1 segment to 4-3 heading to the home stretch but if you hit both, the over 7 feels pretty easy with the last 5

at IU: 14-17pt dog; there will be a little bit of skepticism around IU right away which makes this line lower right now
UCLA: 7-9pt favorite. below us in rankings, at home
at PSU: 7 pt dog. Think there will be some hesitancy towards saying ISU, I mean PSU will be at their usual level as they look at it. Their own over/under is 8.5 which is quite low
NW: 3-6 pt favorite. close to us in Massey rankings, but at home
at WI: pickem preseason; WI gets bumped every offseason only to fall apart every year when the actual games are played.

expected 2-2 segment with the final game a toss up to books, making us 6-6 to 7-5. The number is skewed to the under as our blowout games in conf are all losses and our favored games are tighter. If this team stays healthy (aka mainly Drake, Anthony Smith, and a decent enough complement in the backfield), this team should smoke the over. We match up really well with Miss St, catch Washington early enough they're still figuring some kinks out with who they lost, and we get some favorable timing with when we catch some favorable scheduling timing (Iowa right after the bye, IU right after a stretch of OSU, Michigan, Wisco at the end of the year when I won't be surprised if Fickell is already fired).

Think this team is closer to 8-4 than 6-6.
 

You must log in or register to reply here.



Top Bottom