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There are reports of 60:1 ratios yesterday here in Wisconsin. We ended up with over 5 inches of snow at my house with only about 0.1 of precipitation. So light and fluffy.
 

The polar bears of Minnesota will be happy at the end of the week with the temps.
 

I hope no one's furnace goes out tonight. Stay safe everyone.
 

Colorful map. We're missing out on all the fun this weekend. Could get pretty bad where the ice ends up.

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Anyone from the La Crosse area still alive? Also, how does wind that strong only result in a -69 (nice) wind chill?
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GopherWeatherGuy said:
Good breakdown and I pretty much agree with everything. 2013-14 was a brutal winter for MSP with a ton of snow in Jan/Feb. The end of Sept/beginning Oct was also warm in 2013, but not quite this warm.
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Unfortunately this winter sucked overall after such a promising start. I didn't even use my snowblower once here in Wisconsin. I was out of town for the one big storm early on and everything else was 3-4 inches at most and extremely light/fluffy.
 

There’s ice still on the lake. Appears likely to be EF4+.

 
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GophersInIowa said:
Unfortunately this winter sucked overall after such a promising start. I didn't even use my snowblower once here in Wisconsin. I was out of town for the one big storm early on and everything else was 3-4 inches at most and extremely light/fluffy.
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Been a weird winter. It started off almost exactly as expected. Then dry NW flow took over and kept the eastern US cold but without a lot of snow for most.

NW flow is more common in a La Nina winter but overall this didn't look like a typical La Nina winter with the record warmth/drought across the entire western US.
 



GopherWeatherGuy said:
Been a weird winter. It started off almost exactly as expected. Then dry NW flow took over and kept the eastern US cold but without a lot of snow for most.

NW flow is more common in a La Nina winter but overall this didn't look like a typical La Nina winter with the record warmth/drought across the entire western US.
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Epic storm coming this weekend. Unfortunately for me the heaviest stuff has moved north. could still get 6+ but likely missing out on the 1 to 2 feet some are going to get. Fingers crossed for a southern shift.
 

HRRR is stubbornly pushing the heaviest snow into Central Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin. This feel similar to 2/28 when the long range models put the heavy snow SW of the metro, but the HRRR put south & west metro in the heavy snow. As a result Dakota & Scott counties got put under a WWA and this was the result. HRRR was off by 60 miles the day of.

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NWS Twin Cities not buying into the northern solutions.

As has been the case several times this cool season, we`re seeing what appears to be an over correction with a shift too far to the north in the long range CAM guidance (12z HRRR in particular). We`ll continue to lean on legacy global ensemble means and the machine learning (AIFS/AIFS Ens) solutions, which have displayed a less notable northward shift that appears to be within the expected envelope of solutions. As a result, the axis of heaviest snow is now forecast along and near the I-94 corridor from the Twin Cities into western WI.
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Gopher_In_NYC said:
Why?

I’m genuinely curious
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I live in Wisconsin and this winter has sucked for snowstorms after a good start. I love big snowstorms. Right now we're on the southern edge of any big snows. A southern shift in the system should give us a better chance for higher snows.
 

GophersInIowa said:
I live in Wisconsin and this winter has sucked for snowstorms after a good start. I love big snowstorms. Right now we're on the southern edge of any big snows. A southern shift in the system should give us a better chance for higher snows.
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youtube.com

LET IT SNOW | Christmas Songs | Mini Disco #shorts

#shorts Christmas video of the Kids Christmas Song: Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow… With lyrics to sing along! Mini Disco wishes you a merry Christmas...
youtube.com youtube.com
 

gopher7 said:
NWS Twin Cities not buying into the northern solutions.
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I'm not buying it either. Good forecasters don't just regurgitate every model run. These wobbles always happen 2-3 days out, especially on the US models, which are mostly garbage.

The Euro has been locked in all week. MSP is going to get crushed and I am like a kid on Christmas morning.
 


I don't remember businesses shutting down due to storms like this when I was a kid. Maybe humans are actually getting smarter. Or maybe it's just easier for stores and restaurants to make an announcement on social media now to tell people don't bother trying to get here, we're closed.
 

GopherWeatherGuy said:
I'm not buying it either. Good forecasters don't just regurgitate every model run. These wobbles always happen 2-3 days out, especially on the US models, which are mostly garbage.

The Euro has been locked in all week. MSP is going to get crushed and I am like a kid on Christmas morning.
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Nice explanation here from Bill Borghoff.

There is very little doubt the Twin Cities will have at least 12 inches of snow. Several members also now have 20 inches at a 10:1 ratio. This would be one of the heaviest snowstorms on record. It is important to know how to interpret models....

The AI guidance has been the platinum standard this year in diagnosing where the heaviest axis will set up.

The CAMs are still superior at predicting how much snow will accumulate in the heaviest axis.

As long as you know where the heaviest axis is going to fall (with help from AI), and you're confident in the amounts provided by CAMs, you can shift the CAM amounts to the AI axis and have a great forecast.

AI does better with large scale features, which sets the tracks. CAMs do better with the smaller scale intensity. Combine the two and it is unbeatable. For now, forecasters MUST have intervention until the two can marry.

Early in the CAM lifecycle, it does what it wants to do with its internal physics. You see a lot of shifts north or south toward what eventually becomes reality. AI NEVER had this axis as far north as the CAMs. In fact, it has always been from the metro and just south.
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GopherWeatherGuy said:
I'm not buying it either. Good forecasters don't just regurgitate every model run. These wobbles always happen 2-3 days out, especially on the US models, which are mostly garbage.

The Euro has been locked in all week. MSP is going to get crushed and I am like a kid on Christmas morning.
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Looks like I’m getting my wish with a bit of a southern shift. Sorry to you and others in the metro that are missing out on the heaviest stuff now. Looks like just south will get the very high totals.
 

GophersInIowa said:
Looks like I’m getting my wish with a bit of a southern shift. Sorry to you and others in the metro that are missing out on the heaviest stuff now. Looks like just south will get the very high totals.
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Let me guess, you pay someone to come with a pickup truck and plow your driveway.

F snow
 


GophersInIowa said:
Not even close
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Ok fine, you're that guy out in his driveway in the summer waxing and tuning up his two-stage snow blower with extra large snow shield and lights, for the 1-2 times per winter that such a monstrosity is reasonable called for.


If I wasn't tied down, I'd be in Arizona. That's the correct weather for Nov-Mar.

This snow will melt very quickly. The faster, the better :)


Minnesota weather is as bad as its men's sports teams.
 

GopherGrit said:
Ok fine, you're that guy out in his driveway in the summer waxing and tuning up his two-stage snow blower with extra large snow shield and lights, for the 1-2 times per winter that such a monstrosity is reasonable called for.


If I wasn't tied down, I'd be in Arizona. That's the correct weather for Nov-Mar.

This snow will melt very quickly. The faster, the better :)


Minnesota weather is as bad as its men's sports teams.
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I'm just a weather enthusiast. Enjoy the outdoors and have two kids that love the snow.
 

GophersInIowa said:
I'm just a weather enthusiast. Enjoy the outdoors and have two kids that love the snow.
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I bet there are a lot of people in Florida who enthuse the weather and have kids who enjoy the water, but don't hope a Hurricane strikes there?
 

GopherGrit said:
I bet there are a lot of people in Florida who enthuse the weather and have kids who enjoy the water, but don't hope a Hurricane strikes there?
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I have little doubt, especially since equating a snowstorm to a hurricane is asinine.

I'm also pretty confident I am not God and me hoping for a snowstorm has no bearing on what actually happens.
 


Measured just over 3” on a hailstone we saw just 30 minutes ago here in Wisconsin. Biggest hail I’ve ever seen. We have a bunch of siding damage, lots of car damage and broken windshields in the area.
 

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