2026 Win Totals

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Schnauzer said:
Every year, rinse and repeat. “Experts” predict 5-6 wins in the offseason, followed by 7-8 actual wins. Nearly always better, but not so much better it registers with anyone enough to alter their new rounds of predictions.
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I feel like the last couple of years was 6.5, and in 2020 it was 7.5 although Covid slowed that year down...
 


gopherbadgerman said:
Anyone have the Vegas win totals from the past 5-6 years handy? I feel like they usually exceed them. I am also assuming this is regular season wins only, correct?
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Yes, only regular season.

I don't have the win total handy, but I've been betting the over almost every year since 2019 and have been winning. I think there might have been one year where it was close and I didn't bet, but I definitely won the over the past 2 seasons, and 2019, and another in there somewheres prolly.
 

mngg11 said:
I refuse to accept that losing to Indiana is a guarantee until they actually beat us. Until then, at least to me, they're still Indiana of old.
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They are a paper tiger who has just benefited from an easy schedule. Haven't beaten anyone.

Am I doing this right?
 

GopherTheJugular said:
Yes, only regular season.

I don't have the win total handy, but I've been betting the over almost every year since 2019 and have been winning. I think there might have been one year where it was close and I didn't bet, but I definitely won the over the past 2 seasons, and 2019, and another in there somewheres prolly.
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Yeah I would think that 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2024, and 2025 they would have been over for sure.

2020 was an anomaly and 2023 was probably a loss.

Could have made some good cash on them. I would take the over at 5.5 for sure.
 


gopherbadgerman said:
Anyone have the Vegas win totals from the past 5-6 years handy? I feel like they usually exceed them. I am also assuming this is regular season wins only, correct?
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Keeping in mind this is gambling, the riskier bet here is the under, but it's not like the last few seasons were you actually would have made more than your original bet if you picked the Over.

Sports books (Vegas, online, etc.) don't make projections like this on what they think will likely happen; they make projections like this to separate fools from their money.

All that said, PJ has beaten the projection in 5 out of 8 seasons (not including 2020), hit it in one, and missed in two. For the non-gambling crowd, he hits more than he misses, so that 5.5 number doesn't look so bad. Particularly when he's only missed when the projections were optimistic.

EDIT: I tried to have a consistent sports book for this, but that wasn't happening. Most were pulled from other sports websites, CBS, ESPN, Fox, based on what sportsbook they used in their articles. In a few cases, had to search to find Over Under numbers as they weren't included in the articles. In 2022 after three sites, and no info on the over, I just left it blank.
 

caliGopher said:
Sports books (Vegas, online, etc.) don't make projections like this on what they think will likely happen; they make projections like this to separate fools from their money.
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They make projections like this to keep even betting on both sides. That's all they want. I don't feel like I'm a fool being separated from my money. ;) I agree with the first part of the statement though - they don't know what will happen so they definitely aren't going on hunches or anything.

That being said, thanks for showing this. I'm sure it took some time, and looks like @gopherbadgerman was correct that 2023 was the lone loser.
 

mngg11 said:
We will murder Wisconsin assuming all the returning players make a minor jump in strength and development at minimum. I don't see how this team undeperforms compared to last year
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There is like a 40-50% chance that Wisconsin has to forfeit the game due to everyone already entering portal due to coaching change
 




The Gophers will win 7 or 8 games in 2026. Tough schedule but we will be better.

If things line up properly, example:
Drake has a bust out season.
WR's are making plays.
DT stays healthy.
The Offensive Line is really good.
The Defensive Line is dominant.

The Gophers would then have a chance at 9 or 10 wins. But that means everything
falls into place. There is no doubt the Gophers will be better in 2026.

Will this be the season we beat Iowa? It needs to be.
 

Lifeleadership said:
The Gophers will win 7 or 8 games in 2026. Tough schedule but we will be better.

If things line up properly, example:
Drake has a bust out season.
WR's are making plays.
DT stays healthy.
The Offensive Line is really good.
The Defensive Line is dominant.

The Gophers would then have a chance at 9 or 10 wins. But that means everything
falls into place. There is no doubt the Gophers will be better in 2026.

Will this be the season we beat Iowa? It needs to be.
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To me 6 or 7 is realistic. We will all find out together.

I have major concerns about OL, WR, and RB depth and concerns in the secondary especially corner.
 

gopherbadgerman said:
To me 6 or 7 is realistic. We will all find out together.

I have major concerns about OL, WR, and RB depth and concerns in the secondary especially corner.
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Totally get it. I am not as concerned since we return 4 guys on the OL with experience. A year older and hopefully much improved. I like what we picked up in the portal at WR and RB to go along with the guys we return. I am not as concerned with the Corners. I think John Nestor could be an All-Big 10 corner and I like the starter from Michigan State, West, we picked up. To create some competition, we have some young guys a year older that should be ready to step it up. Yep, I am a bit optimistic but I really do think the Gophers will be better this season. That is where I get my 7-8 win projection. Again, you just never know. It will be fun to see things play out.
 

gopherbadgerman said:
To me 6 or 7 is realistic. We will all find out together.

I have major concerns about OL, WR, and RB depth and concerns in the secondary especially corner.
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I think this is true but I think the range of realistic is larger

5-8 wins is realistic

9+ wins is realistic if the concerns are addressed and things break right
 



Tech Machine said:
Just a comment on the comments here, I thought this was going to be a big year. Seems like most of the commentary in the postseason was 2026 was hoping show tons of improvement. Where did the optimism go?

You guys are making me nervous now, not really, but still……?
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I'd much rather be projected at 7.5 or 8.5 wins. The 5.5 win total shows what people think of where this program is going in to year 10 of PJ. We're losing one projected draft pick off the '25 team. As mentioned in a previous post, Iowa is losing a ton including their starting QB, 3 potential draft picks on the OL, a couple potential draft picks on defense...and are projected at 7.5 wins. Wisconsin is projected at 6.5 and Fickell is on the hottest seat imaginable. We have overachieved our win total projection most years, but it's just been enough to keep us in the mediocre middle going to the same level of bowl games we've seen for 20 years. If we can't win 9 or 10 games this year, can we at least finally beat Iowa and Wisconsin in the same year for the first time since I was a kid?
 

7 or 8 ain’t happening more like 4 to 5. Just a realistic assessment of talent plus coaching.
 

Jack jones said:
7 or 8 ain’t happening more like 4 to 5. Just a realistic assessment of talent plus coaching.
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You think next year is worse than 2018?

We haven’t had a 4 or fewer win season since Jerry Kill
 

EG#9 said:
I'd much rather be projected at 7.5 or 8.5 wins. The 5.5 win total shows what people think of where this program is going in to year 10 of PJ. We're losing one projected draft pick off the '25 team. As mentioned in a previous post, Iowa is losing a ton including their starting QB, 3 potential draft picks on the OL, a couple potential draft picks on defense...and are projected at 7.5 wins. Wisconsin is projected at 6.5 and Fickell is on the hottest seat imaginable. We have overachieved our win total projection most years, but it's just been enough to keep us in the mediocre middle going to the same level of bowl games we've seen for 20 years. If we can't win 9 or 10 games this year, can we at least finally beat Iowa and Wisconsin in the same year for the first time since I was a kid?
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Keep in mind that a factor in how sportsbooks put things where they do is to entice people to place bets. Not necessarily the pure, unadulterated truth in as far as they calculate it.
 

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