2026 Win Totals

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MaxyJR1 said:
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So assume those are just regular season predictions and don't count conf championship, playoff or bowl games.

Putting OSU at 9.5 seems pretty risky since they would have to lose 3 regular season games to go under and they have not done that since 2011 when Fickell was their head coach. And note that is 3 or more losses including conf championship, playoff and bowl games.

Sconnie at 6.5 seems odd considering they have been going backwards under Fickell and will have an new QB again next year.

I'm used to seeing the Gophers with a lousy over/under in these things. Would guess that gamblers that consistently took the over on our win total have probably done pretty well over the years but that is just a guess on my part.
 



MNVCGUY said:
Putting OSU at 9.5 seems pretty risky...
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I agree, but tOSU has a pretty challenging schedule, so it's easier to imagine a path to 3 losses this season.

@ Texas 9-12
@ indiana 10-7
Oregon 11-7
Michigan 11-28
 


I would take the over. I would not at 6.5 but would at 5.5.

Going to vegas this summer.
 









I’m not that Bullish but pretty confident in 6-6+
 

gopherbadgerman said:
I would take the over. I would not at 6.5 but would at 5.5.

Going to vegas this summer.
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Even money. I would take over at 6.5 if forced.
Wouldn’t at 7.5

But I think 6 or 7 wins is the most likely outcome.
I think 8+ more likely than 5 or fewer
 

Just a comment on the comments here, I thought this was going to be a big year. Seems like most of the commentary in the postseason was 2026 was hoping show tons of improvement. Where did the optimism go?

You guys are making me nervous now, not really, but still……?
 

Tech Machine said:
Just a comment on the comments here, I thought this was going to be a big year. Seems like most of the commentary in the postseason was 2026 was hoping show tons of improvement. Where did the optimism go?

You guys are making me nervous now, not really, but still……?
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Us optimists are still here, it's a long offseason
 



Long post. Lots of thoughts

Eastern Illinois
Mississippi St
Akron
@ Washington
Michigan
@ Purdue
- Idle Week -
Iowa
@ Indiana
UCLA
@ Penn St
Northwestern
@ Wisconsin

- If they are 4-2 going into the Iowa game, 8-4 should be on the table
- Eastern Illinois and Akron are the only gimmes
- Mississippi St is a wildcard; they return only 7 starters and share the lowest projected win total of any SEC team (4.5). Their HC Jeff Lebby runs his rendition of the Art Briles veer and shoot offense; very wide WR splits (outside the numbers), fast tempo, vertical shots and RPOs. Will be curious to see how the corners handle that
- @ Washington will be difficult. The two time zone difference seemed to really affect them last year @ Cal. Washington returns QB Demond Williams, but loses their best skill players
- I’m excited to see Michigan under Whittingham. Utah always felt like a Big Ten team when he was coaching there. I anticipate them getting back to being the physical team they were under Harbaugh
- I want to say Purdue should be a win, but that was a nail biter the year before. The Fame Ijeboi revenge game should be interesting. Hope to god he does not become the new Devin Mockobee who seemed to have his best games whenever he played the Gophers

Second half of the schedule…

- Nice to be idle before the Iowa game, except for the fact that Iowa is also off the week before. Last year’s result was the 99th percentile negative outlier. This year should be a one score game. This offseason, Iowa lost their QB, top 3 WRs including KR/PR Wetjen, 3 starting OL, 3 starting DL, 3 LBs who started/rotated, both starting Saf, CB1, and their All Conf Punter. If there’s anytime for PJ to get his second win against Ferentz, it’s this year
- @ Indiana I hope they keep it close. More respectable than last year versus OSU and Oregon
- UCLA at home is a good draw given UCLA will have to travel two time zones. I think very highly of their new HC, Bob Chesney. If there’s a “next Cignetti,” he may be the closest thing. Don’t expect such a quick turnaround for UCLA, but they should be fighting for 6-8 wins
- @ Penn St gives flashbacks to the 2023 whiteout game. Luckily for Minnesota, I think it’s likely that Penn St’s home game against USC becomes the designated whiteout game this year. Lots of transfers from Iowa St and Campbell is a damn good coach
- Going into the Minnesota game, it will be Northwestern’s 10th game in a row after their week 2 bye. I imagine they’ll be running on fumes. Their schedule is also one of the toughest in the P4
- @ Wisconsin should be a one score game. Their transfer QB Colton Joseph is a fun player. There’s a lot they can do in the QB run game with him. Wisconsin lost much of their interior DL that was one of the best run defending groups in the country the year before. I think Wisconsin could range from coming into the game 7-4 off their most manageable stretch of schedule or 3-8 with their wheels falling off

Anywhere from 5-7 to 8-4 seems reasonable. 9-3 or 10-2 is a possibility if things break the right way. Go Gophers!
 

Like the over. Only games that scare me are in the state of Indiana.
 

ReeserMN said:
Long post. Lots of thoughts

Eastern Illinois
Mississippi St
Akron
@ Washington
Michigan
@ Purdue
- Idle Week -
Iowa
@ Indiana
UCLA
@ Penn St
Northwestern
@ Wisconsin

- If they are 4-2 going into the Iowa game, 8-4 should be on the table
- Eastern Illinois and Akron are the only gimmes
- Mississippi St is a wildcard; they return only 7 starters and share the lowest projected win total of any SEC team (4.5). Their HC Jeff Lebby runs his rendition of the Art Briles veer and shoot offense; very wide WR splits (outside the numbers), fast tempo, vertical shots and RPOs. Will be curious to see how the corners handle that
- @ Washington will be difficult. The two time zone difference seemed to really affect them last year @ Cal. Washington returns QB Demond Williams, but loses their best skill players
- I’m excited to see Michigan under Whittingham. Utah always felt like a Big Ten team when he was coaching there. I anticipate them getting back to being the physical team they were under Harbaugh
- I want to say Purdue should be a win, but that was a nail biter the year before. The Fame Ijeboi revenge game should be interesting. Hope to god he does not become the new Devin Mockobee who seemed to have his best games whenever he played the Gophers

Second half of the schedule…

- Nice to be idle before the Iowa game, except for the fact that Iowa is also off the week before. Last year’s result was the 99th percentile negative outlier. This year should be a one score game. This offseason, Iowa lost their QB, top 3 WRs including KR/PR Wetjen, 3 starting OL, 3 starting DL, 3 LBs who started/rotated, both starting Saf, CB1, and their All Conf Punter. If there’s anytime for PJ to get his second win against Ferentz, it’s this year
- @ Indiana I hope they keep it close. More respectable than last year versus OSU and Oregon
- UCLA at home is a good draw given UCLA will have to travel two time zones. I think very highly of their new HC, Bob Chesney. If there’s a “next Cignetti,” he may be the closest thing. Don’t expect such a quick turnaround for UCLA, but they should be fighting for 6-8 wins
- @ Penn St gives flashbacks to the 2023 whiteout game. Luckily for Minnesota, I think it’s likely that Penn St’s home game against USC becomes the designated whiteout game this year. Lots of transfers from Iowa St and Campbell is a damn good coach
- Going into the Minnesota game, it will be Northwestern’s 10th game in a row after their week 2 bye. I imagine they’ll be running on fumes. Their schedule is also one of the toughest in the P4
- @ Wisconsin should be a one score game. Their transfer QB Colton Joseph is a fun player. There’s a lot they can do in the QB run game with him. Wisconsin lost much of their interior DL that was one of the best run defending groups in the country the year before. I think Wisconsin could range from coming into the game 7-4 off their most manageable stretch of schedule or 3-8 with their wheels falling off

Anywhere from 5-7 to 8-4 seems reasonable. 9-3 or 10-2 is a possibility if things break the right way. Go Gophers!
Click to expand...
I did hear on Josh Pate’s recent show that gophs are the whiteout game @ Penn state
 


We will murder Wisconsin assuming all the returning players make a minor jump in strength and development at minimum. I don't see how this team undeperforms compared to last year
 


Anyone have the Vegas win totals from the past 5-6 years handy? I feel like they usually exceed them. I am also assuming this is regular season wins only, correct?
 

ReeserMN said:
Long post. Lots of thoughts

Eastern Illinois
Mississippi St
Akron
@ Washington
Michigan
@ Purdue
- Idle Week -
Iowa
@ Indiana
UCLA
@ Penn St
Northwestern
@ Wisconsin

- If they are 4-2 going into the Iowa game, 8-4 should be on the table
- Eastern Illinois and Akron are the only gimmes
- Mississippi St is a wildcard; they return only 7 starters and share the lowest projected win total of any SEC team (4.5). Their HC Jeff Lebby runs his rendition of the Art Briles veer and shoot offense; very wide WR splits (outside the numbers), fast tempo, vertical shots and RPOs. Will be curious to see how the corners handle that
- @ Washington will be difficult. The two time zone difference seemed to really affect them last year @ Cal. Washington returns QB Demond Williams, but loses their best skill players
- I’m excited to see Michigan under Whittingham. Utah always felt like a Big Ten team when he was coaching there. I anticipate them getting back to being the physical team they were under Harbaugh
- I want to say Purdue should be a win, but that was a nail biter the year before. The Fame Ijeboi revenge game should be interesting. Hope to god he does not become the new Devin Mockobee who seemed to have his best games whenever he played the Gophers

Second half of the schedule…

- Nice to be idle before the Iowa game, except for the fact that Iowa is also off the week before. Last year’s result was the 99th percentile negative outlier. This year should be a one score game. This offseason, Iowa lost their QB, top 3 WRs including KR/PR Wetjen, 3 starting OL, 3 starting DL, 3 LBs who started/rotated, both starting Saf, CB1, and their All Conf Punter. If there’s anytime for PJ to get his second win against Ferentz, it’s this year
- @ Indiana I hope they keep it close. More respectable than last year versus OSU and Oregon
- UCLA at home is a good draw given UCLA will have to travel two time zones. I think very highly of their new HC, Bob Chesney. If there’s a “next Cignetti,” he may be the closest thing. Don’t expect such a quick turnaround for UCLA, but they should be fighting for 6-8 wins
- @ Penn St gives flashbacks to the 2023 whiteout game. Luckily for Minnesota, I think it’s likely that Penn St’s home game against USC becomes the designated whiteout game this year. Lots of transfers from Iowa St and Campbell is a damn good coach
- Going into the Minnesota game, it will be Northwestern’s 10th game in a row after their week 2 bye. I imagine they’ll be running on fumes. Their schedule is also one of the toughest in the P4
- @ Wisconsin should be a one score game. Their transfer QB Colton Joseph is a fun player. There’s a lot they can do in the QB run game with him. Wisconsin lost much of their interior DL that was one of the best run defending groups in the country the year before. I think Wisconsin could range from coming into the game 7-4 off their most manageable stretch of schedule or 3-8 with their wheels falling off

Anywhere from 5-7 to 8-4 seems reasonable. 9-3 or 10-2 is a possibility if things break the right way. Go Gophers!
Click to expand...
Great post!

Hope you're right about the Iowa game, but 2024 game we were feeling pretty damn good about coming off the 2023 win and ... well, you know what happened. Egg laid.

As you said, E ILL and Akron are wins. Then we have to find four more wins against 10 P4 teams to beat the 5.5 FanDuel over/under line.

I'll take as better than 50/50: Purdue, UCLA, NW, and @ Wisconsin. That gets us to 6 total wins.

@ Indiana is a loss, and @ Penn St and Michigan will probably be low odds. As you say, hope we can do better than last year's @ OSU and @ Oregon games.

So if all those go as expected, then we're at 6 - 3.

Rest of the season being Miss St, @ Washington, and Iowa. Possible swing of 6-6 to 9-3.


Feels like the same thing we say every year.
 



Every year, rinse and repeat. “Experts” predict 5-6 wins in the offseason, followed by 7-8 actual wins. Nearly always better, but not so much better it registers with anyone enough to alter their new rounds of predictions.
 

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