I’m a fleck guy but

[mngg11]

2/3 of the power 4 has a 10 win season post 2020


Minnesota doesn’t.

Point being, even bad coaches seem to win 10 games more recently than fleck



I am not a fire fleck guy. But if you go until 2028 and never get to 9 regular season wins…would be hard for anyone to say just give it more time and it’ll happen. I don’t think it’s that hot of a take to say if Mn goes two more years without Minnesota finishing in the top 25 (9-3 would probably do it) it may be time to evaluate what flecks ceiling is in this era and if it’s good enough.
I’m not asking to be a national title contender. I’m asking to be in the top 25 once every 5 years.

Less than 50% of Big Ten teams have won 10 games since 2020. That the ACC and Big 12 have numerous 10 game winners in in conferences that are extremely inconsistent on a year by year basis due to parity doesn't hold water to me, at least. I surmise we'd be far more successful in those conferences as well.

 

[Some guy]

Less than 50% of Big Ten teams have won 10 games since 2020. That the ACC and Big 12 have numerous 10 game winners in in conferences that are extremely inconsistent on a year by year basis due to parity doesn't hold water to me, at least. I surmise we'd be far more successful in those conferences as well.

that’s fine you disagree with me.

 

[mngg11]

that’s fine you disagree with me.

The beauty of free will

 

[Arminius]

That is a fun question. How many of the 17 other teams would include Gophers in their circled teams?

I think six B10 teams right now look at us and say, "that's a win": tOSU, Oregon, Indiana, Iowa, USC, Michigan.

At a minimum, their fans do.

I remember when Gopher fans used to think that about Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue, and Illinois.

 

[mngg11]

I think six B10 teams right now look at us and say, "that's a win": tOSU, Oregon, Indiana, Iowa, USC, Michigan.

At a minimum, their fans do.

I remember when Gopher fans used to think that about Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue, and Illinois.

I'm excited for the Indiana game. We have no idea how that will pan out, we can educatedly assume that Indiana will slaughter us based on Cignetti's track record, but how awesome would it be to get a dub and make them look like Indiana of yesteryear?

 

[mngolf]

Should only get to count wins against P4, and then should also have a number next to it about the average number of P4 wins of those opponents (ie. a SOS metric).


Counting "wins" against Northwestern State and Eastern Illinois types programs?

That would drop the SEC teams alot.

 

[GopherGrit]

Yes, embarrassing for a respectable program to include these sorts of “wins” . . . .
Recent Alabama vs. FCS Matchups

• Nov. 21, 2009: Alabama 45, Chattanooga 0
• Nov. 21, 2015: Alabama 56, Charleston Southern 6
• Nov. 19, 2016: Alabama 31, Chattanooga 3
• Nov. 18, 2017: Alabama 56, Mercer 0
• Nov. 17, 2018: Alabama 50, The Citadel 17
• Nov. 23, 2019: Alabama 66, Western Carolina 3
• Sep. 11, 2021: Alabama 48, Mercer 14

Check out the wins the top SEC teams are counting .... it's apples to apples.

That would drop the SEC teams alot.

I never said anything like SEC is right and Gophers are wrong. I agree 100% that the SEC has been worse at scheduling P4 teams than the Big Ten.

That said, the SEC is surging ahead with its mandate that all conference teams must schedule 10 P4 games going forward. The Big Ten must respond in kind.

And yes, the Gophers do have 10 P4 with Miss State on the schedule.


I'd like to forbid any P4 teams from scheduling any FCS teams.

 

[GopherGrit]

No
if 2021-2025 is the program in perpetuity eventually a change would need to be made.

The gophers have won 40 games in 5 years. I think if they had won 44 in 5 years nearly everyone would be satisfied.

Keeping in mind that the "extra" five games you're quoting here to get to 40 is because of five meaningless bowl wins. Yep, they're wins. Just like beating Northwestern State and Eastern Illinois are wins.

Practically .... let's say it really was 40 regular season wins over 2021-25, so 8 per year instead of 7 per year.

What would that have gotten us? Just somewhat better bowl games, is all I can think is reasonable to assume. Is that more satisfying?


You've already given the answer that I think most agree with: No.

Being an 8 win program that is thought of as "above average" and then going to a mid-level bowl game, gets dull fast.

We need exceptional seasons to hold interest. You've called for that in 2026, hope you're right

 

[MNVCGUY]

I never said anything like SEC is right and Gophers are wrong. I agree 100% that the SEC has been worse at scheduling P4 teams than the Big Ten.

That said, the SEC is surging ahead with its mandate that all conference teams must schedule 10 P4 games going forward. The Big Ten must respond in kind.

And yes, the Gophers do have 10 P4 with Miss State on the schedule.


I'd like to forbid any P4 teams from scheduling any FCS teams.

If you are playing 10 games against power 4 teams I really don't see a problem with scheduling a layup against a FCS team. There is no exhibition or pre-season in college football.

Flip side to that is a team like Indiana who is scheduling all layups in their non-conf schedule by playing a Conf USA, AAC and FCS team.

 

[tjgopher]

Let's try it this way, trying to aim it back at the OP:

does anyone here feel that great that Fleck has averaged 7 regular season wins over 2021-2025 seasons?

Because you're only counting P4 wins? Why view it that way? PJ is playing at least the same number of and in some cases more P4 non-conference games than his P4 peers.

I mean by your standard the great Curt Cignetti is averaging "only" 8.5 regular season wins per year at Indiana, yet has made the playoffs twice and won a national title.

Cignetti hasn't played a single non-conference P4 team yet.

The bigger issue for PJ is to win more Big Ten games and not worry one second about playing more non-conference games against P4 teams.

 

[GopherGrit]

If you are playing 10 games against power 4 teams I really don't see a problem with scheduling a layup against a FCS team. There is no exhibition or pre-season in college football.

Flip side to that is a team like Indiana who is scheduling all layups in their non-conf schedule by playing a Conf USA, AAC and FCS team.

[EDIT: I misread]


I admit that most of Conf USA aren't much better than high end FCS teams. But Northwestern State and Eastern Illinois are also not high end FCS teams.

 

[GopherGrit]

Because you're only counting P4 wins? Why view it that way? PJ is playing at least the same number of and in some cases more P4 non-conference games than his P4 peers.

I mean by your standard the great Curt Cignetti is averaging "only" 8.5 regular season wins per year at Indiana, yet has made the playoffs twice and won a national title.

Cignetti hasn't played a single non-conference P4 team yet.

The bigger issue for PJ is to win more Big Ten games and not worry one second about playing more non-conference games against P4 teams.

I wasn't only counting P4 wins.

PJ Fleck regular season win totals 2021-2025: 8, 8, 5, 7, 7 = 35/5 = 7 per season on average.

Cignetti is averaging 11.5 regular season wins per season on average at IU so far.


Fleck and every single Big Ten coach absolutely should be required to play one P4 in non-conf per year, and I'd go farther to bar them from scheduling FCS teams as well.

 

[MNVCGUY]

You're saying that playing Northwestern State, Liberty University, and Tulane ... are the same thing??

Please show me where I said that?.....I'll wait.

 

[GopherGrit]

Please show me where I said that?.....I'll wait.

It seemed you were saying that in the previous post.

I read more carefully and now I do not think that.


But it still doesn't ever excuse scheduling a weak FCS team.

Probably is that there is no reasonable way to distinguish that, so it is much, much easier to just say no FCS teams.

 

[MNVCGUY]

It seemed you were saying that in the previous post.

I read more carefully and now I do not think that.


But it still doesn't ever excuse scheduling a weak FCS team.

Probably is that there is no reasonable way to distinguish that, so it is much, much easier to just say no FCS teams.

Where we disagree is when it is ok to schedule an FCS level opponent.

I'm fine with an FCS opponent if you are playing at least 10 power 4 teams and 11 FBS level teams. If you are doiing that I have zero issue with that 12th opponent being from the FCS level.

I think it is weak to schedule an FCS non-conf opponent when you don't play a single power 4 non-conf opponent.

 

[GopherGrit]

Where we disagree is when it is ok to schedule an FCS level opponent.

I'm fine with an FCS opponent if you are playing at least 10 power 4 teams and 11 FBS level teams. If you are doiing that I have zero issue with that 12th opponent being from the FCS level.

I think it is weak to schedule an FCS non-conf opponent when you don't play a single power 4 non-conf opponent.

Then why aren't they scheduling South Dakota State?

Why are they scheduling a weak FCS? It's inexcusable.

 

[tjgopher]

I wasn't only counting P4 wins.

PJ Fleck regular season win totals 2021-2025: 8, 8, 5, 7, 7 = 35/5 = 7 per season on average.

Cignetti is averaging 11.5 regular season wins per season on average at IU so far.


Fleck and every single Big Ten coach absolutely should be required to play one P4 in non-conf per year, and I'd go farther to bar them from scheduling FCS teams as well.

Gotcha, I'm bad at math. You make good points.

 

[MNVCGUY]

Then why aren't they scheduling South Dakota State?

Why are they scheduling a weak FCS? It's inexcusable.

lol....schedules get made years in advance....for all any of us know they tried to schedule South Dakota State and the SDSU didn't want to play (not that it matters but South Dakota State didn't play any power 4 teams last year).

But in the end, if a power 4 team is scheduling an FCS team they aren't doing it because they are looking to get tested, they are doing it to get what should be an easy win that will probably allow them to play a lot of players and keep guys healthy for the more important conference games.

And to be clear....I am personally not a fan of games against over matched FCS teams I just don't have a problem with it when you play a 9 game conference schedule and have a power 4 team in one of your other non-conf games.

 

[GopherTheJugular]

2/3 of the power 4 has a 10 win season post 2020


Minnesota doesn’t.

Point being, even bad coaches seem to win 10 games more recently than fleck

Now I'm not gonna look it up, but how many of those were just a "flash in the pan" kinda thing, without the consistency that we get with Fleck?

Case in point, 2021 Michigan State. They are more recent than us, but I'm glad we didn't bring in Mel Tucker, get 11 wins, then deal with the mess afterwards.

So even though MSU has one more recently that us, I'm much happier with our program from '21-'25 than I would be with theirs.

 

[GopherTheJugular]

That is a fun question. How many of the 17 other teams would include Gophers in their circled teams?

Iowa and Ohio State, probably even Oregon.

 

[mggoph]

Iowa and Ohio State, probably even Oregon.

And Nebraska...lol

 

[GopherTheJugular]

And Nebraska...lol

Good one!!!!!!!

 

[GoldRush]

lol....schedules get made years in advance....for all any of us know they tried to schedule South Dakota State and the SDSU didn't want to play (not that it matters but South Dakota State didn't play any power 4 teams last year).

But in the end, if a power 4 team is scheduling an FCS team they aren't doing it because they are looking to get tested, they are doing it to get what should be an easy win that will probably allow them to play a lot of players and keep guys healthy for the more important conference games.

And to be clear....I am personally not a fan of games against over matched FCS teams I just don't have a problem with it when you play a 9 game conference schedule and have a power 4 team in one of your other non-conf games.

With no preseason like the NFL, those games against weak teams are a necessity. Kind of like a scrimmage.

 

[GopherTheJugular]

Woth no preseason like the NFL, those games against weak teams are a necessity. Kind of like a scrimmage.

I dunno, considering a lot of them occur in week 2 after opening the season against a solid opponent...kinda takes away from that theory.

We were even talking on here about how Buffalo was a good MAC team. We should have scheduled Northwestern State in week one if we needed a "preseason" game. Instead we've opened with teams like Ohio State, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Buffalo. Granted this coming season we get the warm-up game first, but I wouldn't call it a necessity.

 

[GoldRush]

I dunno, considering a lot of them occur in week 2 after opening the season against a solid opponent...kinda takes away from that theory.

We were even talking on here about how Buffalo was a good MAC team. We should have scheduled Northwestern State in week one if we needed a "preseason" game. Instead we've opened with teams like Ohio State, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Buffalo. Granted this coming season we get the warm-up game first, but I wouldn't call it a necessity.

Ideally it would be game 1 but I think scheduling is complicated so probably not always feasible.

 

[FanSinceTheFifties]

I hope for an up year every 5 years or so. I think PJs strength right now is consistency. He also usually schedules a NC P4 opponent which I like. I am ok with 7-8 wins a year. Am I accepting mediocrity? Unless I have a few million in NIL to shell out I can't really "demand" better. We ran Mase out of town for the snake oil salesman. I don't want to do that again. I think PJ is on the right track we just need another year where the breaks all go our way.

If lack of NIL money explains 7 win average, what explained the record from 1960s til the NIL?

 

[MNVCGUY]

Ideally it would be game 1 but I think scheduling is complicated so probably not always feasible.

Yeah, in a perfect world you put the FCS/weakest opponent in week 1 but that may be easier said then done with all the logistics involved with scheduling.

 

[Some guy]

Now I'm not gonna look it up, but how many of those were just a "flash in the pan" kinda thing, without the consistency that we get with Fleck?

Case in point, 2021 Michigan State. They are more recent than us, but I'm glad we didn't bring in Mel Tucker, get 11 wins, then deal with the mess afterwards.

So even though MSU has one more recently that us, I'm much happier with our program from '21-'25 than I would be with theirs.

A lot of them!

 

[GopherGuy82]

If lack of NIL money explains 7 win average, what explained the record from 1960s til the NIL?

Extreme lack of under the table money? I'm being half serious but there have been lots of teams illegally paying players forever. The better athletes got the money so you better be able to coach up the players you do get. Apparently the Gophers were only so good there and at times terrible there. When the Gophers had the best athletes they won titles.

 

[DinkytownDelight]

Check out the teams 10 to 15 below them. Most of them consistently recruit “better” than PJ but there are a few ahead of him to. PJ is definitely an overachiever.

I would say PJ has built a team that is consistent and no longer a basement dweller. If PJ truly were an overachiever we would have won the Big Ten West (outright) at least once and we wouldn't get absolutely demolished every time we played a blue blood.